Where the Brains Are:IT Update, Autumn 2011
Peter CoffeeVP & Head of Platform Researchsalesforce.com inc.
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Safe Harbor
In Other Words:
Everything That You See Hereis Real
What are the Smart People Doing? Faster…
Silicon Photonics– performance/watt has been flat over time (Google Labs, ’05)
– Ge lasers 100 times faster than intra-chip wires (MIT)
– reduced power losses, easier to cool
– ‘seed & melt’ detector fab: cheaper than vapor deposition (IBM)
Memristors (HP, IBM, Hynix)– roughly twice the density of flash
– more than 1,000 times faster
– millions of rewrite cycles
Metamaterials (Purdue)– new semiconductors ‘steer’ light with electric fields
– aluminum and gallium doping agents reduce optical losses
What are the Smart People Doing? Safer…
Formally verified operating system (Australia)
Application ‘whitelisting’
Facebook “Custom” button– What do they have in common?
– Finally, a trend toward granting specific permissions rather than
trying to anticipate and block attacks and errors
Informatica
Big Data– “Time is lost, confusion results and money is spent.”
(1917 complaint about the telephone)
– ‘volume, velocity, variety’ (Gartner)
– beyond scientific computing
Bigger Tools– Hadoop (Facebook / Cloudera)
– Informatica
Improving
Algorithms &
Visualizations
What are the Smart People Doing? Smarter…
Collaboration analysis / anonymity (Yahoo!, 4Chan)
‘Contestification’ (Frito-Lay, Toyota)
‘Chatterlytics’– What do they have in common?
– Formalizing measurement of
interaction and influence
– Balancing desire for credit with
benefits of anonymity
– Rewarding contribution, rather
than mere activity
What are the Smart People Doing? Smarter2…
Bandwidth pooling– BitMate (Pakistan) effectively doubles connection speed
– downloaded by users in 173 countries
Tagged-packet networking (USC / GM)– instead of sending packets to an address,
label with data attributes• ‘This is what I’m about’
• ‘This is where I’m useful’
• ‘This is when I’m outdated’
Task-inferring search (Bing)
Data security and robustness (RSA)
Connecting it All Together
Today’s Maps are Drawn by Our Connections(Arcs Represent Number • Distance of Facebook ‘Friend’ Links)
Pop quiz: where is Beijing?
’60s Mainframe Computing
’90s Desktop
Cloud Computing
’00s Mobile Cloud
Computing
’10s SocialRevolution
’70s Mini Computing
’80s Client/Server Computing
Ten Year Computing Cycles10X more users with each cycle – but this time, with a difference
Data Management
Apps
Business Logic Apps
Process Automation
Apps
Web Apps
Mobile Apps
Social Apps
“Whereas earlier entrepreneurs looked at the Internet and saw a network of computers, Zuckerberg saw a network of people.” – Time, 15 Dec. 2010
Social Revolution:Social Networking Surpasses Email
Source: Comscore, June 2011
Social Users
Email Users
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1.1 billionsocial users
2010
2011
Web
Usa
ge (
min
utes
)
4 hoursper month
Social Revolution:The WAWKI* is Shrinking
Sources: Ben Elowitz, Wetpaint / comScore
* Web As We’ve Known It
Facebook mobile users are 2X more active than desktop users.
- facebook.com
81minutes
per day
Social Revolution:Mobile Apps Used More than Web Browsers
Source: comScore, Alexa, Flurry Analytics
Mob
ile A
pps
Bro
wse
r
Social Revolution:Device Choice Indicates New Use Cases
Source: Gartner Research; Smartphone, Tablet, and PC Forecast, December 2010.
2013E
16 billionmobile devices by 2013
Desktop
2007 20082009 2010 2011E 2012E
Laptops
Smartphones
Tablets
Number of Apps
750,000Apps
7/0810/08
4/097/09
11/094/10
9/106/11
Social Revolution:Apple / Android App Store Volume Exploding
Social Revolution:Employees Forcing the Pace of Change
...fastest ramping mobile
device ever.“
”
CIOs Surveyed on Tablet Usage
2010
2011
Morgan Stanley, “Tablet Demand and Disruption”, February 14, 2011.
Purchased for EmployeesEmployee-ownedNot Allowed
A Critical New Role for “Cloud”
Old Cloud: Centralization + Automation Cost Reduction– Distant resources: considered to be a tolerable nuisance
– Security: assumed to be a challenge, and compliance a barrier
– ‘Cloudwashing’ of legacy products: tempting and easy
New Cloud: Connection + Simplification Acceleration– Data and process in cloud are closer to everything else you need
– Security is part of the service; audit trails are easy to provide
– You can’t ‘connectwash’ a server, no matter how much
virtualization you apply or how many ‘private clouds’ you proclaim
– In false clouds, you pay for resources…
…in true clouds, you pay for opportunities
1,100 tweets per day handled by agents
Automatic conversion of tweet-to-case
Fast Resolution with case routing
twitter.com/Bofa_Help
Bank of America’s New Branch is Twitter on the Salesforce Service Cloud
Gatorade Social Monitoring Center
Engaging athletes on social media
7% increase in sales
250% traffic increase in product education
Gatorade Joins Customer Conversations on Social Media
Products Become Participants
Instant updates, not
limited by human
speed or attention
Effective integration
of hardware speed
& human judgment
The next new
application
opportunity
public String CloudThoughts{ get; set;}Mike Leach, www.embracingthecloud.com
Facebook, Twitter, and Chatter notifications
Users receive alarms and alerts
Enables rapid response
Reduces system downtime
Network congestion
in Asia.
Enterasys Devices Are Now Social
Collaborative
process creation &
maintenance
Best practice
sharing
Integration with
feeds and other
social channels
Social process
monitoring
Steve Wood. Great – I can help with the case escalation by linking in the Apple Escalation Process.
New process created: iPad Tier 1 Support Process (Goals: Run time, 5 min)
Andrew Leigh. I need to create a new customer service process for the iPad, can you guys help?
Varadarajan Rajaram. Yes, I know this product well – there are a bunch of solutions I can build into this process.
Because ‘social’ is a model, not an app
What are your customers saying?
200 million tweets/day
1.5 billionFacebook posts/day
Billionsof blogs & communities
Difficult to Track Conversations Across Customer Social Networks
Sift more dirt, find more gold– With modern machines/methods, gold mines are
viable at 1 g. Au / ton of ore
– Costs of collecting/sifting the crowdstream
continue to fall
The oddly opposite models:– Delphi Method: people with wildly varying knowledge, exposed to each other’s
opinions, produce consensus surpassing the sum of the parts
– Open-Source Method: Individual contributions, appropriately incented (if only with
ego rewards), yield cost-effective combined results
Can the crowd survive its success?– “Even mild social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect.”
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 16 May 2011wired.com/wiredscience/2011/05/wisdom-of-crowds-decline
– Vital elements: diversity, independence, decentralization, aggregation
What Role for “The Crowd”?
From Data to Information
Toyota Social Enterprise
Dealers/Distributors
Chatter for 320,000 Employees
Toyota Friend Website1-800-4-My-
Toyota
Toyota Friend on Youtube
Toyota Friend on Twitter
Toyota Friend on mixi
Manufacturing/Finance
Toyota Friend on Facebook
Toyota Friend Mobile
Toyota VehiclesSocial Customer Profile
Cloud Connection Margin Growth and Brand Differentiation
“One automaker’s chief financial officer told
Sun COO Jonathan Schwartz that his
company could give a car away for free, if it
could charge a customer $220 per month for a
subscription.”www.zdnet.com/news/sun-puts-java-into-gear-for-cars/136886
“CE device margins are razor thin, and the promise of maintaining an always-on connection to the customer after the point of sale is mighty enticing. With a connected device, there are all kinds of new opportunities to present offers and services that can generate ongoing monthly revenue. Simply put, connected devices make connected customers.”
Richard Schwartz, President and CEO, Macheen
Objections Are Being Addressed
Security: American Bankers Association blog says an enterprise should
“verify that any outsourcing partner meets its standards. However, once
verified, a cloud partner can actually provide greater security.”
Availability:– Salesforce.com now routinely exceeding 500M transactions/day
– In June 2011, achieved 100% of planned availability
Compliance: United States’ National Institute of Standards and
Technology says cloud-resident data “can be more available, faster to
restore, and more reliable… [and] less of a risk than having data dispersed
on portable computers or removable media.”
Trust is Enabled by Transparency
Data protection regulations– Where can it be stored?– Who’s allowed to see it?
Peel the onion of ‘compliance’– Anonymize/encrypt/partition specific fields– Cloud disciplines can enhance auditability
• Role-based privilege assignment
• Actions taken using granted privileges
Looking at the laws is not enough– USA PATRIOT Act inspires concern from global
collaborators who may fear a multi-tenant ‘dragnet’…but…– Court rulings already encourage escrow/isolation of
targeted data when a multi-tenant system is involved
Data Stewardship is a Practice, not a Technology
“Do it yourself” vs. “Who you gonna call?”
Potential benefits from transitioning to a public cloud computing environment:
• Staff Specialization• Platform Strength• Resource Availability• Backup and Recovery• Mobile Endpoints• Data Concentration
Cloud Credibility: Option of First Resort
The Upsides Become Compelling
Innovation:– Old: Windows XP is 10 years old, but runs almost half of the world’s PCs
– New: In time between Win 7 and SP1, Force.com had six upgrades
Collaboration:– Organizations adopting Chatter routinely see 30%+ reduction of email
– When people are given a choice, they choose the social model
Competitive Advantage: McKinsey Global Institute finds that
– “fully networked enterprises…[use] collaborative Web 2.0 technologies intensively
to connect the internal efforts of employees and to extend the organization’s reach
to customers, partners, and suppliers”
– “[they] are not only more likely to be market leaders or to be gaining market share,
but also to use management practices that lead to margins higher than those of
companies using the Web in more limited ways.”
Cloud leverage empowers innovatorsRapid iPad Deployment for Patient Prescreening
One developer with no prior training built a mobile app in just 4 days
Deploying to Medical Directors, Program Directors in hospitals on iPhones and iPads
Eliminates paper forms, workflow cuts response time by more than 60%
Cut processing time from 18 hrs to less than 60 min
“We’re blown away by how we built a mobile healthcare application on Force.com with one person in just 4 days…
The same app built in [previous models] would have taken over 3 months”
The Rising Floor of “Easy”
Bulldozers greatly reduce the jobs for ditch-diggers…but they
greatly increase the number of jobs for landscape architects
and golf-course designers Old IT:
– Make capacity decisions once a year, then keep the pedal to the
metal and wish that you had more– Make security decisions based on perimeters…and hope for the
best
New IT:– Make capacity decisions every hour—or less—and continually
evaluate business value of every marginal cycle– Make security decisions based on relationships…and monitor use of
the privileges you grant
The Future Has Already Happened
When a bomb explodes, it takes some time before you see
anything happen…but the energy has been released
Three fundamental energies
are in play:– Connectivity
• Capacity in place
• Protocols and power management
– Mobility• Devices drive cloud demands
– Social interaction model• Dominating on- & off-job interactions
‘Cloud’ only hints at what you don’t need to do– ‘Social’ describes what your workers and customers want
– ‘Mobile’ describes what they need
– ‘Open’ describes the freedom to do it the way that works for them
Cost reduction is not the path to leadership– Cloud models make it easier to match IT costs against business tasks
– Superior ROI, and compelling improvement in time-to-market, change the terms of debate surrounding IT investments and resources
The job of the ‘IT professional’ is changing– Integrator of services, rather than buyer and operator of technologies
– Instigator and manager of innovative tools and processes
– Enabler and custodian of relationships and insights
In Conclusion
Peter CoffeeVP & Head of Platform Research
[email protected]/peter.coffee
twitter.com/petercoffeecloudblog.salesforce.com
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