Climate Science, Climate Policyand Montana
Tom Fiddaman5/20/2010
Accumulation of Greenhouse Gases
Rates of change in natural and anthropogenicradiative forcing over the past 20,000 yearsFortunat Joos and Renato SpahniPNAS, vol. 105 no. 5
GHGEmissions
NetRemoval
GHGs in AtmosphereGHGs in Atmosphere
Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
Courtesy of John Sterman, MIT
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CO2 Emissions & ConcentrationEmissions
8
4
0
1750 1880 2010Time (year)
GtC
/yea
r
Fossil Fuels Land Use
CO2 Concentration
400
300
200
1800 1905 2010Time (year)
ppm
Law Dome Ice Core Mauna Loa
Emissions
AtmosphericConcentration
Millennial Temperature Reconstructions
M. N. Juckes, M. R. Allen, K. R. Briffa, J. Esper, G. C. Hegerl, A. Moberg, T. J. Osborn, and S. L.WeberMillennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluationClim. Past, 3, 591–609, 2007 www.clim-past.net/3/591/2007/
Light fromthe sun
Infraredradiationto space
Heat in Earth SystemHeat in Earth System
Atmospheric Temperature
Courtesy of John Sterman, MIT
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Global Surface Temperature
NASA/GISS – GISTEMP global land/ocean temperature, retrieved 4/5/2010.
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Montana Temperatures
Pederson et al. (2010) A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: what do temperature trends portend? Climatic Change 98:133-154
Sea LevelSea Level Data
40
-70
-180
-290
-400
1700 1731 1762 1793 1824 1855 1886 1917 1948 1979 2010Time (Year)
mm
Tide Gauges Satellites
GlaciersBoulder Glacier, Glacier NP
Source: USGS Repeat Photography Project, http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/repeatphoto/boulder-cp.htm
1910
2007
Arctic Sea Ice
National Snow & Ice Data Center, retrieved 4/7/2010 from http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/
Disappearing ArcticSea Ice
Source: NASA http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003464/index.html, courtesy of John Sterman, MIT
Sept 1979
Sept 2007
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Wildfire Incidence Growing
Science 18 August 2006 313: 927-928
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Ice Sheets
Sea Level
GHGs in Atmosphere
Biosphere & Ocean
Uptake Release
EmissionsHeat inSurface
Heat inOcean
Sunlight Infrared
HeatXfer
Water Vapor
Clouds
Precipitation
Aerosols
Temperature
Ocean Acidity
16
The FutureIPCC AR4 Temperature Projections
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Sea Level Rise Projections
Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature PNAS vol. 106 no. 51 Dec 22 2009
+4 ½ feet
Climate Weirding
Fig. 3. ... pool of potential analogs is restricted to gridpoints within 500km of each target gridpointJohn W. Williams, Stephen T. Jackson, and John E. Kutzbach. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. PNAS, vol. 104 no. 14
Disappearing Climates with High Emissions (SRES A2)
Difficulty assessing proposals
“...delegates [in Bonn] complained that their heads were spinning as they were trying to understand the science and assumptions underlying the increasing number of proposals tabled for Annex I countries’ emission reduction ranges.”
http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12403e.html
“They all seem to use different base years and assumptions…: how can we make any sense of them?”
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Current Confirmed Proposals
Country 2020 2050 Other
Australia 5% below 2000 60% below 2000
20% renewable energy by 2020
Brazil 36% below business-as-usual
Amazon deforestation 70% below 2009 by 2017
China Carbon intensity 45% below 2005
Increase forest coverage 40M Ha by 2020
EU 20% below 1990
80% below 1990
Russia 20% below 1990
50% below 1990
US 17% below 2005Compiled by Climate Interactive, Feb. 2 2010 release, http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data
and so on ...
Policymaker Mental Models
“Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation process, the concrete environmental consequences of the various positions are not clear to all of us. There is a dangerous void of understanding of the short and long term impacts of the espoused …unwillingness to act on behalf of the Parties.”
– Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC negotiator for Costa Rica
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(model demo)
CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (year)
Gto
nsC
O2/
year
USEUChina
IndiaOther DevelopedOther Developing
Temperature Sensitivity
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090Time (year)
Deg
rees
C
Temperature change from preindustrial["2C"] : REFTemperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : REFTemperature change from preindustrial["4.5C"] : REFGoal for Temperature : REF
High Sensitivit
y
Low Sensitivit
y
9°F
Emissions – Business as Usual Temperature
CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (year)
Gto
nsC
O2/
year
USEUChina
IndiaOther DevelopedOther Developing
Emissions – Stabilized Global Temperature Change
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Deg
rees
C
Temperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : StabilizeTemperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : REFGoal for Temperature
BAU
Stabilize5°F
Temperature
9°F
Global Temperature Change
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Deg
rees
C
Temperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : StabilizeGoal for Temperature
Total Emissions and Removals
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (year)
Gto
nsC
O2/
year
Net Uptake and Net SequestrationCO2 Emissions
Emissions
Removals
Emissions & Removals Temperature
5°F
CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (year)
Gto
nsC
O2/
year
USEUChina
IndiaOther DevelopedOther Developing
Temperature Sensitivity
4
3
2
1
0
2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090Time (year)
Deg
rees
C
Temperature change from preindustrial["2C"] : -50 percentTemperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : -50 percentTemperature change from preindustrial["4.5C"] : -50 percentGoal for Temperature : -50 percent
Emissions – Cut 50%
Temperature
3°F
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The world wasn’t ready
• Negotiators didn’t have the mandate to achieve a meaningful agreement
Result: as of recently,+7 degrees F in 2100
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
3-Model Avg BOZEMAN MONTANA ST U WEST YELLOWSTONE Precip
Model Futures for MontanaAverage of GISS ER, CCSM, ECHAM5 ensembles from climexp.knmi.nl, lat 45.7 lon -110.9
Precipitation
Bozeman
West Yellowstone
Temperature
Tem
pera
ture
(C
)
Pre
cipit
ati
on
(m
m/d
ay)
Energy Emissions – WCI Partners, Observers & Others
Yukon Territory 0.4
Wyoming 62.9
Washington 85.6
Utah 66.1
Texas 663.9
South Dakota 13.2
Saskatchewan 57.4
Quebec 64.1
Oregon 42.7
Ontario 165
Nunavut 0.6
Nova Scotia 21.1
Northwest Territories 0.9
North Dakota 49.2
Newfoundland 9.4
New York 210.9
New Mexico 59
Nevada 49.6 Nebraska 43.1
Montana 36.3
Missouri 141.1
Michigan 189.6
Mexico 439.6
Manitoba 12.8
Maine 22.9
Louisiana 191.6
Kansas 72.5
Iowa 79.7
Idaho 15.8
Hawaii 23
Georgia 184
Florida 260.7
Colorado 94.3
California 390.6
British Columbia 55.2
Arizona 97.2
Alberta 200
Alaska 47.1
Sources: EPA - State CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1990-2005Environment Canada –National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada
2
8
1
CO2: 19
Residential
Commercial
Industrial, Ag & Forestry
Transport
Electric Power
Gas
Coal
Petroleum
Renewables, Waste, Biomass
9611
196
1
15
16
14
28
21
28
57
8
110
Production
Production
108
114
Production
727
Production
191
Exports
527
Exports
29
Imports1
GHG Emissions
CO2: 2
CO2: 1
CO2: 7Other GHGs: 9
CO2: 8
Exports
6
14
Legend
Biomass/Renewables/Waste [Trillion BTU]
Electricity [Trillion BTU]
Coal [Trillion BTU]
Gas [Trillion BTU]
Petroleum [Trillion BTU]
CO2 [Million Ton CO2eq]
Other GHGs [Million Ton CO2eq]
MontanaEnergy & GHG Flows
ca. 2005
Sources:
Energy Flows:US - EIA State Energy Data System, 2005Canada - Statistics Canada, Report on Energy Supply-demand in Canada, 2005
Energy CO2 emissions:US - EIA SEDS + emissions factorsCanada - Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2005, GHG Sources and Sinks in Canada
Non-Energy CO2 & Non-CO2 emissions:US - Various state GHG inventories, ca. 1990-2005
Canada - Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2005, GHG Sources and Sinks in Canada
Notes:
Emissions and energy flows may not match regional GHG inventories due to differences in aggregation and omitted factors, required to place regions on a common basis.
Sector inflows and outflows may not sum to zero due to statistical differences and changes in stocks.
Completeness of data varies by region; generally non-CO2 and non-energy emissions, energy imports and exports, non-energy use, and flows of small magnitude will be understated.
Not shown: statistical differences, changes in stocks, producer consumption, and non-market fuels, land use change and sink uptake, international transport and marine bunker fuels.
Process emissions from oil and gas production and refining, coal mining, etc. appear in the industrial category.
Compiled by Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems, for the WSPA-sponsored WCI Collaborative, March 2009
Emissions per GDP
Sources: EPA - State CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1990-2005Environment Canada –National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in CanadaUS GDP – EIA SEDS; Canada GDP – Statistics Canada, converted to $US at market exchange rates
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400Emissions per GDP (TonCO2eq/M$)
WCI
Washington
Utah
Quebec
Oregon
Ontario
New Mexico
Montana
Manitoba
California
British ColumbiaArizona
Current Technologies Can Reduce Emissions
Socolow, Princeton
McKinsey: Initial Emissions Reductions Save Money
http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/pdf/Cost_Curve_for_Greenhouse_Gas_Reduction.pdf
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Triggering the Good Tipping Points
• Regional Government– Imitation of successful policies– Complementary infrastructure
• Corporate– economies of scale, learning curves– networks, thought leadership
• Personal– Habits– Word of mouth, knowledge diffusion– Vision – what seems possible
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Many policies are “no regrets”
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Thanks!
Slides will be posted at
http://blog.metasd.com
Data Sources(red) EPICA Dome C temperature data: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.683655(dark blue) Vostok CO2 data: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.55501(steel blue) EPICA DomeC temperature data, 423-391 kybp: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.472482(pale blue) EPICA DomeC CO2 data, 650-413 kybp: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.472481(cyan) EPICA DomeC CO2 data, 800-650 kybp: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.710901This figure was produced by Leland McInnes using python and matplotlib and is licensed under the GFDL. All data is from publicly available sources.
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10
29
3
CO2: 14
Residential
Commercial
Industrial, Ag & Forestry
Transport
Electric Power
Gas
Coal
Petroleum
Renewables, Waste, Biomass
6
736
57
111
1
96
75
Exports
19
51
67
69
76
Nuclear
86
8
153
15
605
Imports
Production
827
282
Production
83
Imports
782
Imports30
Imports4
GHG Emissions
CO2: 5
CO2: 3
CO2: 16Other GHGs: 4
CO2: 44
113
Legend
Biomass/Renewables/Waste [Trillion BTU]
Electricity [Trillion BTU]
Coal [Trillion BTU]
Gas [Trillion BTU]
Petroleum [Trillion BTU]
CO2 [Million Ton CO2eq]
Other GHGs [Million Ton CO2eq]
WashingtonEnergy & GHG Flows
ca. 2005
Sources:
Energy Flows:US - EIA State Energy Data System, 2005Canada - Statistics Canada, Report on Energy Supply-demand in Canada, 2005
Energy CO2 emissions:US - EIA SEDS + emissions factorsCanada - Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2005, GHG Sources and Sinks in Canada
Non-Energy CO2 & Non-CO2 emissions:US - Various state GHG inventories, ca. 1990-2005
Canada - Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2005, GHG Sources and Sinks in Canada
Notes:
Emissions and energy flows may not match regional GHG inventories due to differences in aggregation and omitted factors, required to place regions on a common basis.
Sector inflows and outflows may not sum to zero due to statistical differences and changes in stocks.
Completeness of data varies by region; generally non-CO2 and non-energy emissions, energy imports and exports, non-energy use, and flows of small magnitude will be understated.
Not shown: statistical differences, changes in stocks, producer consumption, and non-market fuels, land use change and sink uptake, international transport and marine bunker fuels.
Process emissions from oil and gas production and refining, coal mining, etc. appear in the industrial category.
Compiled by Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems, for the WSPA-sponsored WCI Collaborative, March 2009
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WCI Partner Emissions, 2005
Sources: EPA - State CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1990-2005Environment Canada –National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada
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US Energy Infrastructure
Source:EIA State Energy Profiles, 2009; http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/state/
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Emissions per Capita
Sources: EPA - State CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1990-2005Environment Canada –National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in CanadaUS population – EIA SEDS; Canada population – Statistics Canada
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46Emissions per Capita (TonCO2eq/person/yr)
WCI
Washington
Utah
Quebec
Oregon
Ontario
New Mexico
Montana
Manitoba
California
British Columbia
Arizona
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Gross Emissions – Consumption Basis
Sources: EPA - State CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1990-2005Environment Canada –National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Gross Emissions - Cons Basis (MMTCO2eq/yr)
Washington
Utah
Quebec
Oregon
Ontario
New Mexico
Montana
Manitoba
California
British Columbia
Arizona
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Partner Emissions & Targets vs. 1990
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Gross Emissions vs 1990
WCI
Washington
Utah
Quebec
Oregon
Ontario
New Mexico
Montana
Manitoba
California
British Columbia
Arizona
Gross
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Year
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
WCI
Washington
Utah
Quebec
Oregon
Ontario
New Mexico
Montana
Manitoba
California
British Columbia
Arizona
Target
History: US – state greenhouse gas inventoriesCanada - Environment Canada – National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada
Projections:US – state GHG projections and climate action planning documentsCanada – linear trend extrapolation
Targets: US – state climate action planning documents; Pew Center on Global Climate Change, http://www.pewclimate.org/states-regionsCanada – Environment Canada, Turning the Corner: Detailed Emissions and Economic Modelling, http://www.ec.gc.ca/doc/virage-corner/2008-03/571/p1_eng.htm
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C-ROADS at COP-15
• President briefed by Science Advisor
• Scoreboard went viral
• Real-time analysis picked up by media, negotiators
• US State Dept used as common platform, picked up by other delegations
“This capability, had it been available to me when we negotiated Kyoto, would have yielded a different outcome.” Tim Wirth, President, UN Foundation,
former Senator
Dr. Elizabeth Sawin
Andrew Jones
Stephanie McCauley
1 April 2010
www.climatescoreboard.org
The Climate Scoreboard
Recent Results
PotentialProposals
ConfirmedProposals
Business as Usual
Low Emissions Path
01-Apr-10 Climate Scoreboard ©Sustainability Institute www.ClimateScoreboard.org
PotentialProposals
ConfirmedProposals
Business as Usual
Low Emissions Path
01-Apr-10 Climate Scoreboard ©Sustainability Institute www.ClimateScoreboard.org
PotentialProposals
ConfirmedProposals
Business as Usual
Low Emissions Path
01-Apr-10 Climate Scoreboard ©Sustainability Institute www.ClimateScoreboard.org
PotentialProposals
ConfirmedProposals
Business as Usual
Low Emissions Path
01-Apr-10 Climate Scoreboard ©Sustainability Institute www.ClimateScoreboard.org
For latest results or questions
www.ClimateScoreboard.org
Contact:Dr. Elizabeth SawinClimate Interactive ProgramSustainability [email protected] twitter: twitter.com/climateinteract+1-802-436-1277 X 103 (office)+1-603-715-0116 (mobile)
www.climateinteractive.org
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