Climate Modeling for the Asia-Pacific-- ClimateAP and its applications
Tongli Wang, PhD
Faculty of Forestry
University of British Columbia
Historical change in CO2 level and temperature
3Source: http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/400000yearslarge.gif
Forests and climate change
• Climate change mitigation• CO2 Sequestration
• Green materials – to reduce the use of CO2 emission intensive materials
• Adaptation to climate change• To serve as a sink not a source of CO2
6Carbon sink Carbon source
Effects of climate on forest trees
• Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the performance of trees (environmental effect)
• Climate is also the most important evolutionary force causing speciation and within-species variation (genetic effect) in plants
7
Climate also shapes among-population variation along climate gradients within a species
Species range of lodgepole pine
Climatic niche
Pro
du
ctiv
ity
Climate change causes mismatches between the climate that trees adapted and the climate that trees are going to experience
11
Pro
du
ctiv
ity
Current Future
Current climatic niche distribution
Future climatic niche distribution
Lagging edge population extirpation
Adaptation over generations using standing variation
and gene flow
Natural migrationfrom leading edge
Natural populationresponses
Clim
atic
gra
die
nt
warm
cold
Aitken et al. 2015
A framework for climate change adaptation in forestry
14
• Climate data for the past and the future
Climate data
Impact assessment
Adaptation strategies
• Plant-climate relationships
• Projections on tree species ranges
• Climate-based forest resources management
• Knowledge transfer (web tools)
Challenges in getting climate data
• Not easy to access for specific locations
• Not at a desirable resolution
• Not at an expected accuracy
• Not having enough biological relevant climate variables
• Historical and future from different sources• Different resolutions and variables
15
How does it work?
• 1. Data sources
• 2. Downscaling algorisms
• 3. Calculated and derived climate variables
• 4. Integrations and downscaling of historical and future climate data
• 5. A user-friendly interface
1. Data sources ClimateAP
• Baseline data (1961-1990 normals)
• PRISM data at 4km for China
• WorldClim (4km) for the rest
• Historical annual data
• CRU: 1901 – 201x
• Future projections
• GCM projections from IPCC AR5
18
2. Downscaling of the baseline data
• A combination of • bilinear interpolation and
• Elevation adjustment
bilinear interpolation Elevation adjustment
Approaches for elevation adjustment
• Polynomial functions𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏1𝑥1 + 𝑏2𝑥2 +⋯+ 𝑐1𝑥12 + 𝑐2𝑥22 +⋯
• Partial derivative functions based on PRISM data that incorporated topography and expert knowledge
• Dynamic local regression
elev
MAT
= – 0.0183 + 5.5910–4 Lat – 2.2910–6 Lat Long
)( PRISMsite
elev
MAT elevelev
ClimateBC is critical for climatic mapping BEC zones
Observed Predicted
Source: Hamann & Wang. 2005. Models of climate normals for genecology and climate change studies in BC. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 128: 211-221
3. Calculated and derived climate variables
• Calculate climate variables• Temperatures: MAT, MWMT, MCMT, TD,
• Precipitation: MAP and MSP
• Dryness: AHM and SHM
• Radiation: MAR
• Derived climate variables• Degree-days: DD<0°C, DD>5°C, DD<18°C
and DD>18°C
• Frost: NFFD, FFP, bFFP, eFFP
• Dryness: Eref and CMD
• Snow: PAS
Weather stations
Downscaling approach
Future climate data
GCM
Anomaly
Reference period 1961-1990
Replaced by ClimateAP
Interpolation
ClimateAP output
+
It facilitates predictions for management unit
32
Current Future (2050s)
Climate
Ecosystems
UBC Research Forest
ClimateWNA has been Widely used for climate related studies
40
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Number of citations
Year
This will likely to be the future for ClimateAP!
ClimateWNA
Future development: adding future annual data to ClimateAP
• To reflect annual variability and extremes
• 2 scenarios, 3 GCMs and 90 years = 540 sets
• Programming to achieve fast access to the time series data
A framework for climate change adaptation in forestry
42
• Climate data for the past and the future
Climate data
Impact assessment
Adaptation strategies
• Plant-climate relationships
• Projections on tree species ranges
• Climate-based forest resources management
• Knowledge transfer (web tools)
Modeling and projecting bioclimate envelopes for BC ecosystems and tree species
• The basis:• The relationship between the realized niche and climate
variables
• Assumption: • The realized niche is the result of local adaptation and
interactions with other species and organisms under recent/historical climatic conditions
• Major challenges• Model accuracy
• Uncertainty associated with uncertain future climates
44
Improvement in model accuracy
• PCA
• Discriminant analysis
• Machine-learning methods• Neural network• Random Forest +• Optimizations
46
A local application: predictions of Subzones
48Kamloops Timber Supply Area (at 90m)
Predicted (current)Mapped
We chose 20 scenarios to represent the range and distribution
Predicted changes in temp. and precip. for BC by 134 climate changes scenarios for 2050s 49
Projected ecological responses to six selected climate change scenarios for 2050s
A consensus projection for 2050s
50
Model-agreement among the projections based the 20 selected climate change scenarios
52(Wang et al. 2012)
Climate niche Models – Chinese fir
• Contraction is the substantial
• Expansion is limited
• Concerned!
Wang et al. 2016
Google map based ClimateAP (http://climateap.net/ )
• Spatial visualization
• Data access
Web-based climate tools for APFNetOutput 6
This web tool makes the spatial visualization easy and simple, and delivers the output data to users’ figure tips through a web browser.
Future development: more species and ecosystems
• More species: 10 species• China: two larch (Larix gmelinii and L.
olgensis) species, Scots pine (Pinussylvestris), Yunnan Pine (Pinusyunnanensis), black locust (Robiniapseudoacacia), Chinese cork oak (Quercusvariabilis), aspen (Populus tremula), mosobamboo (Phyllostachys edulis)
• Chinese Taipei: Cyclobalanopsis longinux(syn. Quercus longinux), Lithocarpusmegalophyllus (?)
CC Impacts differ among ecological zones
Sub-BorealSpruce zone
Interior Cedar-Hemlock zone
Current CGCM3 A2 2080s
Contraction
Expansion
62Wang et al. 2012
Conclusions
• ClimateAP • uses of the best available climate data and improves them
• Adds a large number of climate variables
• Offers a n all-in-one package: historical, current and future
• User friendly interface
• It facilitates ecological modelling at both species level to study the trend and local management unit to develop adaptive management strategies
• Our climatic and ecological models are competitive and accessible at your figure tips.
Top Related