Climate change projections for Vietnam from CMIP5 simulations
Ramasamy Suppiah 29 November 2012
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy2 |
Why we need this study?Vietnam’s long coastline, geographic location, and complex topography and monsoonal climates contribute to its being one of the most hazard-prone countries of southeast Asia, with storms and flooding, and drought in particular, responsible for economic and human losses.
It is expected that anthropogenic climate change conditions can change the severity of climatic extremes in the future
How good are the new generation of global climate models (GCMs) simulating the present climate over a broader region centered Vietnam?
What are the projected changes in mean climate (temperature and rainfall) over Vietnam by the end of the century?
Data
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy3 |
Observed global surface air temperature, winds and mean sea level pressure data from ERA-Interim archives. The data set covers land and ocean areas
Observed land only global rainfall from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and ERA-Interim archives for land and ocean areas.
Observed gridded precipitation (Aphrodite)
Simulated mean sea level pressure, surface air temperature and rainfall for historical and future climates for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) for RCP8.5 from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations
15 Organisations and 31 simulations.
Historical climate 1979-2004 and also 1979-2001 for CRU and future climate 2080-2099 for RPC8.5.Future temperature and rainfall changes for RCP8.5 are from 24 and 22 models, respectively.
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy4 |
Methods and SeasonsStatistical analyses:Pattern correlation and root mean square (RMS) errors
Four Seasons: Northeast monsoon season: December to March (NEM)First Intermonsoon season: April and May (FIM)Southwest monsoon season: June to September (SWM)Second Intermonsoon season: October and November (SIM)
Pattern correlation Perfect = 1.0, Worst -1.0RMS Error small is good and high is worst
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy5 |
Some thoughts about GCMs
Simulation of the current climatology
Capture the interannual and possibly intra-seasonal variabilityEl Niño-Southern OscillationTropical cyclonesOnset, retreat and duration of the monsoonsLocation of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
GCMs are the best available tool to simulate future climate
Comparison of CO2 concentrations from SRES (A1B, A1FI, A2, B1) and RCPs (3.0, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) approaches
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy6 |
Source: Meinshausen, M. and Coauthors, 2011
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
Winds at 850 hPa level for First Intermonsoon (FIM) and Southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons
Presentation title | Presenter name7 |
FIM (April-May) SWM (June-September)
Winds ms-1
Latit
ude
Latit
ude
Longitude Longitude
Winds at 850 hPa level for Second Intermonsoon (SIM) and Northeast monsoon (NEM) seasons
Presentation title | Presenter name8 |
SIM (October-November) NEM (December-March)
Winds ms-1
Latit
ude
Latit
ude
Longitude Longitude
Mean sea level pressure for First Intermonsoon (FIM) and Southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons
Presentation title | Presenter name9 |
FIM (April-May) SWM (June-September)
(hPa) (hPa)
Latit
ude
Latit
ude
Mean sea level pressure for Second Intermonsoon (SIM) and Northeast monsoon (NEM) seasons
Presentation title | Presenter name10 |
SIM (October-November) NEM (December-March)
(hPa) (hPa)
Latit
ude
Latit
ude
Mean rainfall during First Intermonsoon (FIM) and Southwest (SWM) monsoon seasons
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy11 |
FIM (April-May) SWM (June-September)
mm/day mm/day
Latit
ude
Latit
ude
Mean rainfall during Second Intermonsoon (SIM) and Northeast (NEM) monsoon seasons
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy12 |
SIM (October-November) NEM (December-March)
mm/day mm/day
Latit
ude
Latit
ude
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy13 |
Pattern correlation and RMS Error for surface air temperature for four seasons based on the larger region
ACCESS1-0ACCESS1-3CanESM2CCSM4CNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3-6-0FGOALS-g2FGOALS-s2GFDL-CM3GFDL-ESM2MGISS-E2-HHadCM3HadGM2-CCHadGM2-ESinmcm4IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC4hMIROC5MIROC-ESM-CHEMMIROC-ESMMPI-ESM MRI-CGCM3NorESM1-M
RMS Error (oC)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Pat
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0.0
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1.0
TAS-IMS (Apr-May)
RMS Error (oC)
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
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TAS-OCT
RMS Error (oC)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
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TAS-NEMS (Nov-Mar)
RMS Error (oC)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Pat
tern
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0.1
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TAS-SWMS (Jun-Sep)
Surface air temperature for Region (90-140°E,0-40°N)
Best
Worst
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy14 |
Pattern correlation and RMS Error for surface air temperature for four seasons based on the larger region
Surface air temperature for Region (60-160°E,-15-50°N)
ACCESS1.0
ACCESS1.3
bcc-csm1-1
CanESM2
CCSM4
CNRM-CM5
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0
FGOALS-g2
FGOALS-s2
GFDL-CM3
GFDL-ESM2G
GFDL-ESM2M
GISS-E2-H
GISS-E2-R
HadGEM2-CC
inmcm4
IPSL-CM5A-LR
IPSL-CM5A-MR
MIROC5
MIROC-ESM-CHEM
MIROC-ESM
MPI-ESM-LR
MRI-CGCM3
NorESM1-M
RMS Error (oC)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Pat
tern
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0.0
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1.0
TAS-FIMS (Apr-May)
RMS Error (oC)
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Pat
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Co
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atio
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TAS-SIMS (Oct-Nov)
RMS Error (oC)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Pat
tern
Co
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0.0
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1.0
TAS-NEMS (Dec-Mar)
RMS Error (oC)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Pat
tern
Co
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atio
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0.0
0.1
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1.0
TAS-SWMS (Jun-Sep)
Best
Worst
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy15 |
Pattern correlation and RMS Error for mean sea level pressure for four seasons based on the larger region
ACCESS1-0ACCESS1-3CanESM2CCSM4CNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3-6-0FGOALS-g2FGOALS-s2GFDL-CM3GFDL-ESM2MGISS-E2-HHadCM3HadGM2-CCHadGM2-ESinmcm4IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC4hMIROC5MIROC-ESM-CHEMMIROC-ESMMPI-ESM MRI-CGCM3NorESM1-M
Mean sea level pressure for Region (90-140°E,0-40°N)
RMS Error (hPa)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pat
tern
Co
rrel
atio
n
0.0
0.1
0.2
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1.0
PSL-IMS (Apr-May)
RMS Error (hPa)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pat
tern
Co
rrel
atio
n
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
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1.0
PSL-OCT
RMS Error (hPa)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pa
tter
n C
orr
ela
tio
n
0.0
0.1
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PSL-NEMS (Nov-Mar)
RMS Error (hPa)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pa
tter
n C
orr
ela
tio
n
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
PSL-SWMS (Jun-Sep)
Best
Worst
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy16 |
Pattern correlation and RMS Error for mean sea level pressure for four seasons based on a relatively smaller region
ACCESS1-0ACCESS1-3CanESM2CCSM4CNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3-6-0FGOALS-g2FGOALS-s2GFDL-CM3GFDL-ESM2MGISS-E2-HHadCM3HadGM2-CCHadGM2-ESinmcm4IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC4hMIROC5MIROC-ESM-CHEMMIROC-ESMMPI-ESM MRI-CGCM3NorESM1-M
Mean sea level pressure for Region (95-135°E,0-25°N)
RMS Error (hPa)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pat
tern
Co
rrel
atio
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0.0
0.1
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PSL-IMS (Apr-May)
RMS Error (hPa)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pat
tern
Co
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atio
n
0.0
0.1
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PSL-OCT
RMS Error (hPa)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pat
tern
Co
rrel
atio
n
0.0
0.1
0.2
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1.0
PSL-NEMS (Nov-Mar)
RMS Error (hPa)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Pat
tern
Co
rrel
atio
n
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
PSL-SWMS (Jun-Sep)
Best
Worst
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy17 |
Pattern correlation and RMS Error for rainfall for four seasons. Results against ERA-Interim data for the larger region
ACCESS1-0ACCESS1-3CanESM2CCSM4CNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3-6-0FGOALS-g2FGOALS-s2GFDL-CM3GFDL-ESM2MGISS-E2-HHadCM3HadGM2-CCHadGM2-ESinmcm4IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC4hMIROC5MIROC-ESM-CHEMMIROC-ESMMPI-ESM MRI-CGCM3NorESM1-M
Rainfall for Region (90-140°E,0-40°N) Land and ocean areas
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
tern
Co
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0.0
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PR-NEMS (Nov-Mar)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
tern
Co
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atio
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0.0
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PR-SWMS (Jun-Sep)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
tern
Co
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atio
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0.0
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PR-IMS (Apr-May)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
tern
Co
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atio
n
0.0
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PR-OCT
Best
Worst
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy18 |
Pattern correlation and RMS Error for rainfall for four seasons. Results against ERA-Interim data for the Asian region
Rainfall for Region (60-160°E,-15-50°N) Land and ocean areasACCESS1.0
ACCESS1.3
CanESM2
CCSM4
CNRM-CM5
CSIRO-Mk3-6.0
FGOALS-g2
FGOALS-s2
GFDL-CM3
GFDL-ESM2G
GFDL-ESM2M
GISS-E2-H
HadGEM2-CC
inmcm4
IPSL-CM5A-LR
IPSL-CM5A-MR
MIROC5
MIROC-ESM-CHEM
MIROC-ESM
MPI-ESM-LR
MRI-CGCM3
NorESM1-M
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
tern
Co
rrel
atio
n
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
PR-FIMS (Apr-May)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
tern
Co
rrel
atio
n
0.0
0.1
0.2
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1.0
PR-SIMS (Oct-Nov)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pa
tter
n C
orr
elat
ion
0.0
0.1
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1.0
PR-NEMS (Dec-Mar)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pa
tter
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orr
elat
ion
0.0
0.1
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1.0
PR-SWMS (Jun-Sep)
Best
Worst
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy19 |
Pattern correlation and RMS Error for rainfall for four seasons. Results against CRU data based on the larger region
ACCESS1-0ACCESS1-3CanESM2CCSM4CNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3-6-0FGOALS-g2FGOALS-s2GFDL-CM3GFDL-ESM2MGISS-E2-HHadCM3HadGM2-CCHadGM2-ESinmcm4IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC4hMIROC5MIROC-ESM-CHEMMIROC-ESMMPI-ESM MRI-CGCM3NorESM1-M
Rainfall for Region (90-140°E,0-40°N) Land area only
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
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Co
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0.0
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PR-NEMS (Nov-Mar)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
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PR-SWMS (Jun-Sep)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
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PR-IMS (Apr-May)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
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n
0.0
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1.0
PR-OCT
Best
Worst
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy20 |
A comparison of annual results from both ERA-Interim and CRU data
ERA-Interim (Land and ocean) CRU Data (Land only)ACCESS1-0ACCESS1-3CanESM2CCSM4CNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3-6-0FGOALS-g2FGOALS-s2GFDL-CM3GFDL-ESM2MGISS-E2-HHadCM3HadGM2-CCHadGM2-ESinmcm4IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC4hMIROC5MIROC-ESM-CHEMMIROC-ESMMPI-ESM MRI-CGCM3NorESM1-M
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
tern
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0.0
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1.0
PR-ANNUAL (Jan.-Dec.)
RMS Error (mm/day)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Pat
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PR ANNUAL (Jan.Dec.)
Best
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Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy21 |
Observed and simulated annual surface air temperature over the region
Temperature (°C)
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy22 |
Annual Temperature bias: Model-Obs
Temperature (°C)
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy23 |
Mean seasonal and annual temperature bias from 24 simulations
Temperature °C
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy24 |
Future annual surface air temperature changes by 8 of 24 models by the end of the century
Temperature (°C)
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy25 |
Future annual surface air temperature changes by 8 of 24 models by the end of the century
Temperature (°C)
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy26 |
Future annual surface air temperature changes by 8 of 24 models by the end of the century
Temperature (°C)
Temperature change by the end of the century (°C) for RPC 8.5 from 24 models
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy27 |
First Intermonsoon
Northeast monsoonSecond Intermonsoon
Southwest monsoon Annual
Temperature change (°C)
Mean and ranges of future temperature changes ( °C) over VietnamSeason Low Mid HighNEM 1.6 3.7 5.8FIM 2.1 4.1 5.6SWM 2.2 3.8 5.2SIM 1.9 3.7 5.1ANNUAL 2.1 3.8 5.1
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy28 |
Observed and simulated annual rainfall over the region
Rainfall (mm/day)
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy29 |
Annual rainfall bias: Model-Observation
Rainfall (mm/day)
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy30 |
Mean model rainfall bias between simulations and observations:Model minus observations
Rainfall bias (mm/day)
First Intermonsoon
Northeast monsoonSecond Intermonsoon
Southwest monsoonAnnual
Number of models agreeing on future rainfall increase from 22 GCMs
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy31 |
Increase
First Intermonsoon
Northeast monsoonSecond Intermonsoon
Southwest monsoon
Annual
Rainfall change by the end of the century (%) for RPC 8.5 from 22 models
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy32 |
Rainfall change (%)Mean and ranges of future rainfall changes (%)Over Vietnam
Season Low Mid HighNEM -40 +04 +70FIM -50 -04 +45SWM -14 +07 +25 SIM -08 +20 +65ANNUAL -08 +07 +20
First Intermonsoon
Northeast monsoonSecond Intermonsoon
Southwest monsoon Annual
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy33 |
Conclusions
CMIP5 models fairly well capture the spatial patterns ofseasonal and annual surface air temperature. However, there are large model-model variations. Most of the models tend to underestimate observed air temperature over the land areas.
Current GCMs capture the observed spatial patterns and seasonality of rainfall. More rainfall over low latitudes and less rainfall over mid and high latitudes.
Models tend to overestimate rainfall over low and high latitudes and underestimate over mid latitudes. However, there are small differences inregional scale.
Conclusions Cont.
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy34 |
Models suggest an increase of annual temperature between 2.0 and 5.0 with the mid value of 4.0°C over Vietnam by the end of this century for RPC 8.5
Rainfall changes are more complex as decreases and increases are simulated by models for future
Annual average rainfall changes between -08 and +20% with a mid value of +07%. However, there are differences among the seasons. The largest mean rainfall increase is simulated for Second Intermonsoon season (+20%) and a small decrease is for First intermonsoon season (-04%).
Most of the models agree on rainfall increases during, Northeast, Southwest and Second Intermonsoon seasons and decreases during the first intermonsoon season over Vietnam by the end of this century for RCP 8.5.
Future plan
Climate Change in Vietnam | Suppiah Ramasamy35 |
Investigate temperature and rainfall changes for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with additional model experiments.
Investigate the effects of aerosol on temperature and rainfall changes over Southeast Asia by the end of this century.
Suppiah Ramasamy
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Vic. 3195t +61 3 9239 4554e [email protected]
Thank you
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