Climate Change Economic Impacts in the Middle & Upper Snake River
Richard A. SlaughterDon Reading
Climate Impacts Group
University of WashingtonSupported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationOffice of Global Programs
Structure and Background
UPPER SNAKE MODEL
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Shaded and red markings indicate aspects not modeled.
Snake River Natural Flow nr Heise 1911 - 2006
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
19111914191719201923192619291932193519381941194419471950195319561959196219651968197119741977198019831986198919921995199820012004
1000 Acre Feet
Annual flow nr HeiseFive year movavg -1 SD 1911 - 2006 -1 SD 1971 - 2006 +1 SD 1911 - 2006 +1 SD 1971 - 2006
Total Water Withdrawals - withdrawals by use
Public supply ground
Industrial ground0.16%
Public supply surface0.01%
Industrial surface0.06%
Livestock0.15%
Domestic supply
Aquaculture12.28%
Irrigation86.39%
Water Demand (AF) - Ratio of withdrawals to consumption
County Base
Blaine 3.55
Camas 1.17
Cassia 1.66
Gooding 2.18
Jerome 5.52
Lincoln 3.32
Minidoka 2.10
Twin Falls 3.42
Bannock 6.43
Bingham 3.11
Bonneville 3.93
Butte 2.23
Clark 3.12
Fremont 2.56
Jefferson 6.02
Madison 4.54
Power 1.84
Average 3.32
Source: USGS, Estimate Water use in the United States in 2000; water consumption for all crops in model.
ESPA Acres
Alfalfa, irrigated22%
Alfalfa, dryland3%
Barley, irrigated15%
Barley, dryland5%
Potatoes14%
Sugarbeets6%
Wheat, irrigated23%
Wheat, dryland6%
Oats0%
Silage Corn
Corn
Beans2%
Potatoes and sugarbeets account for only 20% of acreage.
Net Revenue per AcreBase Period
(200) (100) - 100 200 300 400 500 600
Crop
$ Net per Acre
Dryland Wheat
Irrigated Wheat
Sugarbeets
Potatoes
Oats
Silage Corn
Corn
Beans
Barley
Alfalfa
Potatoes account for the largest share of net revenues
Simulation results
Assumptions
Variable Base Current Climate Additional CC Forecast, no CCForecast, current
Climate
Water at Heise
95 year average
1 SD reduction from 95 year average
CC 1 SD from 1971 - 2006 average
95 year average1 SD reduction from 95 year
average
Input pricesCurrent values
Commodity prices
Current values
Dairy cows Current stock
Water efficiency
No change
Water budget (for ET)
No change
Population No change
Current values
Current stock 10% increase per decade
Current values 10% increase per decade
5% public and industrial surface; 2.5% public ground, 0% industrial ground; 0% domestic; 2.5% irrigation improvement per decade
No changeIdaho Power Co. forecast (50% over 40
years; some counties decline)
No change
BaseCurrent Climate %
Additional Climate Change %
Reasonable Forecast,
no CC %
Forecast, Current Climate %
Acreage
Irrigated 2,167,655 (152,984) 7.1% (212,133) 9.8% 272,080 12.6% 99,333 4.6%
Non-irrigated 326,613 34,935 10.7% 52,130 16.0% (13,336) 4.1% 23,685 7.3%
Total 2,494,268 (118,049) 4.7% (160,003) 6.4% 258,744 10.4% 123,018 4.9%
Water allocation (KAF)
Irrigation, Lvstk 13,302 (1,950) 14.7% (2,230) 16.8% 1,674 12.6% (525) 3.9%
Municipal 106 (13) 12.5% (14) 12.8% 156 146.9% 124 116.5%
Aquaculture 1,887 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Domestic 43 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Industrial 33 (3) 8.0% (3) 8.9% 57 173.2% 50 152.7%
Total Withdrawals (KAF) (1,966) 12.8% (2,246) 14.6% 1,887 12.3% (351) 2.3%Current climate: 1971 - 2006 average
Acreage and water change from base
By Crop
2000 base, century average
climate
Current climate (1 SD from century
average)
CC 1 SD from
current climate
Forecast, no CC
Current climate, Forecast
Alfalfa $232,132 1.2% 1.8% 9.9% 8.6%
Barley $188,918 13.8% 18.4% 23.9% 5.6%
Beans $25,060 12.0% 16.6% 0.0% 12.0%
Corn $8,721 7.7% 10.7% 32.3% 22.1%Silage Corn $79,749 2.0% 2.8% 131.7% 126.4%
Oats $555 0.0% 0.0% 50.7% 50.7%
Potatoes $566,547 4.5% 6.3% 0.0% 4.5%
Sugarbeets $168,117 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4%
Irrigated Wheat $171,203 8.7% 12.2% 12.4% 20.0%
Dryland Wheat $13,594 3.2% 4.7% 19.1% 21.4%
Current climate: 1971 - 2006 average
Cumulative % Change Gross Revenue by Crop
County
2000 base, century average climate
Current climate (1 SD from century
average)
CC 1 SD from current climate
Forecast, no CC
Current climate, Forecast
Blaine 19,830 (55) (75) 22,257 22,189
Camas 511 33 49 308 342
Cassia 10,865 (387) (538) 8,315 7,892
Gooding 6,033 (109) (153) 5,373 5,226Jerome 8,621 (232) (323) 8,630 8,351
Lincoln 1,711 (75) (104) 1,865 1,776
Minidoka 8,403 (347) (479) 1,031 639
Twin Falls 40,972 (393) (545) 31,045 30,590
Bannock 44,537 (22) (30) 23,085 23,063
Bingham 18,300 (449) (627) 9,133 8,677
Bonneville 57,405 (235) (323) 47,527 47,253
Butte 5,021 (64) (89) (167) (243)Clark 668 (27) (38) (89) (117)Fremont 4,272 (125) (164) 3,099 2,951Jefferson 7,930 (363) (499) 5,258 4,840Madison 15,916 (284) (392) 12,068 11,751Power 3,654 (169) (237) 692 526Total 254,649 1.3% 1.8% 70.5% 69.0%Current climate: 1971 - 2006 average
Non-agricultural employment (crop weighted, 2050)
County Potato Gross
Revenue Non-ag Employ
Revenue % Chg.
Employ % Chg
Revenue % Chg.
Employ % Chg
Revenue % Chg.
Employ % Chg
Revenue % Chg.
Employ % Chg
Blaine 2,787 17,490 0.7% 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 8.1% 0.2% 9.6% 0.3%Camas 0 441 - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0%Cassia 61,812 11,089 8.7% 2.9% 11.7% 4.0% 2.5% 0.2% 5.9% 2.6%Gooding 18,074 5,904 2.0% 0.6% 3.1% 0.9% 6.3% 0.4% 9.0% 1.0%Jerome 29,470 8,069 7.3% 2.1% 10.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 6.5% 1.9%Lincoln 6,938 1,507 11.5% 2.1% 15.3% 2.8% 6.2% 0.3% 4.6% 1.7%Minidoka 51,006 9,356 4.4% 1.6% 6.2% 2.3% 3.2% 0.3% 7.9% 1.9%Twin Falls 33,844 38,257 4.0% 0.8% 5.6% 1.1% 3.7% 0.2% 8.1% 1.0%Bannock 6,766 41,900 1.4% 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 7.1% 0.3% 9.2% 0.5%Bingham 98,695 17,380 18.4% 10.2% 24.3% 13.5% 15.4% 2.2% 1.4% 7.8%Bonneville 44,120 52,375 6.5% 2.9% 9.0% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 6.9% 2.9%Butte 2,824 5,722 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.3% 10.1% 0.3%Clark 0 569 - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0%Fremont 45,205 3,869 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 9.4% 1.3% 10.1% 1.2%Jefferson 47,866 6,522 2.4% 0.9% 3.7% 1.3% 5.8% 0.5% 8.8% 1.5%Madison 51,929 14,406 1.1% 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 7.5% 1.3% 9.4% 2.2%Power 57,489 4,481 5.6% 2.9% 7.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.2% 7.3% 3.2%Total 558,826 239,337 6.8% 9.4% 0.1% 6.7%
Forecast, no CC CC35, forecast2000 Base CC 35% only CC 45% only
Potatoes
Climate Impacts Group
University of WashingtonKing Building4909 25th Avenue NESeattle, WA 98195 Ph: 206.616.5350Fax: [email protected]
Richard Slaughter, Ph.D.907 Harrison BlvdBoise, ID 83702Ph: 208.850.1223Fax: [email protected]
Don Reading, Ph.D.6070 Hill RoadBoise, ID 83703Ph: 208.342.1700Fax: 208.384.1511
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