CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd July 20
th, 2015
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J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
No. of shares (crore) 8.48
Mkt cap (Rs crs) 2286
Current Price (17/07/2015) 270
Price Target 333
52 week H/L (Rs.) 275/152
Book Value (Rs) (FV 2) 117
P/BV (FY16e/17e) 2.1/1.9
P/E (FY16e/17e) 17.4/13.8
EPS growth (FY16e/17e) 13.8/26.7
ROE(FY16e/17e) 12.6/14.5
Beta 1.0
BSE Code 506943
NSE Code JBCHEPHARM
Bloomberg JBCP IN
Reuters JBCH.BO
Daily volume (avg. weekly) 341215
Shareholding pattern % Promoters 55.8
MFs / Banks / FIs 3.4
Foreign 5.0
Non-Promoter Corp. 4.1
Total Public 31.7
Total 100.0
As on June 30, 2015
Recommendation
BUY
Analyst TANYA KOTHARY
Phone: + 91 (33) 44880023
E- mail: [email protected]
Figures in Rs crs FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e
Income from operations* 866.13 1021.87 1144.22 1276.13 1473.35
Other income 26.65 36.81 10.89 15.01 18.78
EBITDA (Other income included) 132.30 120.80 191.23 228.12 278.93
Net profit after extraordinary items 62.83 88.60 115.30 131.18 166.14
EPS 7.42 10.45 13.60 15.47 19.59
EPS growth (%) -5.6 41.0 30.1 13.8 26.7
Equity^ 16.94 16.95 16.96 16.96 16.96
*Includes other operating income
Company Brief JBCPL, one of India’s leading pharmaceutical companies, manufactures
& markets a diverse range of pharmaceutical formulations, herbal
remedies and APIs. JBCPL exports to more than 30 countries across the
world and earned more than 53% of its revenue from exports in FY15.
Highlights
� The company plans to invest Rs 140 crs in formulations & API plant
in Gujarat. The company plans to invest in this new capacity and
related infrastructure in the next 12-18 months.
� The company is ranked 36th in the industry, with its three brands
viz.Rantac, (anti-peptic ulcerant), Nicardia (calcium channel
blocker) and Metrogyl (amoebicides), featuring among top 300
brands in terms of both value and unit sales (IMS MAT March 2014)
� In FY14 the company has set up a wholly owned subsidiary
company Unique Pharmaceuticals Laboratories FZE in Dubai. It has
commenced sales and distribution of products in Russia-CIS in
FY15.
� During Q4FY15 the JBCPL registered a growth in standalone sales
of 11.6% YoY at Rs 255.10 crs. The operating margins stood at
16.6%. On a consolidated level the adjusted operating margins
improved by 256 bps to 17.1% in FY15 as against 14.5% in FY14.
� The company has been paying quite liberal dividend for the last
two years (FY13-14) at 150% and this time the company rewarded
its shareholder with a onetime special dividend of 500% (over and
above 200% regular) totaling it to 700%.
� The outlook for the company remains positive and we expect
revenues and profit to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% & 20.0%,
respectively over 2015-17. The stock at the price of Rs 270 trades at
17.4x FY16e earnings and 13.8x FY17e earnings. Strong traction in
domestic business & expansion of capacities will drive future
growth. Therefore, we recommend BUY on the stock with target
of Rs 333 based on 17x FY17e earnings (PEG Ratio 0.85), over the
next 9-12 months.
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Business Profile
Source: JBCPL, CD Equisearch
Company Background
JBCPL, one of India’s leading pharmaceutical companies, manufactures & markets a diverse range of
pharmaceutical formulations, herbal remedies and APIs. JBCPL exports to many countries worldwide with a
strong presence in Russia, Ukraine, CIS countries and South Africa. The Company continues to invest in growing
its share in the regulated markets in USA, Europe and Australia. JBCPL has a strong R & D and regulatory set-up
for development of new drug delivery system and formulation, filing of DMFs and ANDAs. Its state-of-the-art
manufacturing facilities are approved by health authorities of regulated markets.
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Overview of the Indian Pharmaceutical Sector
The Indian pharmaceutical industry has achieved an eminent global position and has been witnessing phenomenal
growth in recent years. It is well known that India is emerging as a world leader in generic pharmaceuticals
production, supplying 20% of the global market for generic medicines. The industry accounts for 8% of global
production, and is exporting to over 200 countries. India is a major vaccine producer and has 18 major vaccine
manufacturing facilities. These vaccines are used for the national and international market (150 countries) which
makes India a major vaccine supplier across the globe. The Indian pharmaceutical industry is estimated to grow at
20 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years, as per India Ratings, a Fitch Group
company. Indian pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities registered with US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
as on March 2014 was the highest at 523 for any country outside the US.
Source: CMIE& Dept of Pharmaceuticals
Source: Capital line
Strong export growth was recorded over 2007-2008 to 2012-
13 a CAGR of 18%.This growth will be backed by $92 billion
of drugs going off patent in the next three years, increasing
traction for generic drugs globally and new generic drug
approvals for Indian pharmaceutical companies in different
jurisdictions. However, the domestic market revenue
growth (CAGR of 10.4 per cent during 2008-2013) will
continue to be moderate. The said exports to the US will
continue to grow in the medium term backed by the largest
number of United States Food & Drug Administration
(USFDA) approved facilities outside the US as well as the
largest share of drug approvals over the last few years.
IPM (Indian Pharmaceutical Market) posted CAGR growth
of 11 per cent during the period 2012-2015. The IPM was
valued at Rs 89,244 crores and the retail sector was valued
at Rs 75,551 crores, both with a growth of 20 per cent in
February 2015 over the same month last year. Multiple
factors like prevalence of swine flu-H1N1, high growth in
anti-infectives, respiratory and pain market with expansion
of big brands have resulted in overall robust growth during
the period. Indian companies continue to capture larger
share in IPM at 74% compared to the share of MNCs that
constitute 26% during February 2015. The graph to the left
depicts IPM by value in 2014 representing Anti Infective,
Cardiac and Gastro intestinal, with respective market share
of 16%, 13%, and 11% that constitutes major therapies.
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Investment Summary
Global Player
Source: JBCPL, CD Equisearch
Manufacturing facilities
Location State Manufactures Facility Approved
1 Kadaiya, Daman Daman lozenges and tablets TGA, Australia
2 Plant TI-10, Panoli Gujarat tablets US FDA
3 Plant IV - 17, Panoli Gujarat Tablets, Injections, Lozenges MCC, South Africa
4 Plant IV -14 , Panoli Gujarat Injections, ointments & coldrubs MCC South Africa
5 Plant L -6, Panoli Gujarat Herbal liquids Health Canada
6 Plant D 9, Panoli Gujarat Diclofenac API US FDA, Germany EU - GMP
7 Plant UM 12, Ankleshwar Gujarat Tablets & Liquids NDA Uganda Source: JBCPL, CD Equisearch
Approved state-of-the-art facilities
JBCPL has placed high focus on contract manufacturing for projects awarded by multinationals globally and
growth of niche branded generics to strengthen stable revenue. The company’s state-of-the-art manufacturing
facilities with approvals from international health authorities such as US FDA, UK MHRA, EU GMP, TGA
Australia, MCC South Africa and MOH Ukraine and its wide range of products across injectable, lozenges, solid
and semi-solid give it the needed platform to succeed in this business.
The company’s thrust is to increase exports. The various
initiatives taken in the past to increase exports and
increased focus on US business helped achieve a
growth of nearly 5% in FY15. API business continued its
upward momentum with sales of Rs 103.76 crs. In terms
of activities, the company’s focus on promoting and
selling generic products, ANDAs, branded generics
including contrast media products, contract
manufacturing of various dosage forms, including
lozenges contributed to growth. The exports to Rest of
the World markets (other than Russia – CIS region)
continued to show robust performance at Rs 350.11 a
growth of 16.83% in Rupee terms. Accordingly the
company has enhanced focus and plans to file for more
ANDAs in the next couple of years.
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Contrast Media
JBCPL is one of the top three companies in the field of contrast media in the Indian market. The contrast media
products of JBCPL, caters to niche radio-diagnostic products used in CT Scan, MRI and Cath Lab through 30 sales
representatives that call on hospitals and radiologists. Lopamidol, Lohexol, Gadopentetate Dimeglumine,
Diatrizoate Meglumine are some the contrast media products that they market in India. It-licensed a new
Ultrasound Contrast Imagining product (Definity) of Latheus Medical Imaging Inc from USA. In FY14 the company
achieved a growth of 25% in this segment. In FY15, this segment achieved a growth of 8% YoY at Rs 35.13crs.
Renewed thrust in this segment has helped to achieve the stated growth.
Prescription products
The Indian pharmaceutical sector has come a long way from being primarily generics manufacturer to supplying
complex formulations to global pharmaceutical markets and the sector has witnessed a significant evolution over
the last few decades. The prescription based formulations business of the company registered 15.95% growth at Rs
374.43 crs against industry growth of 13% in FY15.
The company’s growth strategy includes focusing on growing therapeutic segments like anti-infective,
cardiovascular, pain management and gastrointestinal, new product introductions, deeper penetration in rural
market and increased focus on hospital business accompanied by CME (Continuing Medical Education) and CDE
(Continuing Dental Education) programmes for doctors and special marketing campaigns. During the year, the
company also launched products in dermatological, anti-peptic ulcerant and antacid segments. Despite the
challenges before the company to grow domestic formulation business and since sales in this business essentially
depends on prescription generation, which is a slow process, the company is quite hopeful of growing the business
in this segment. Acute segments (Viral infection, cough, cold TB and water borne diseases) contribute 82% of total
sales. The employees strength in India was 2480 in FY14. The company recognizes the important role played by
field force in growth of domestic prescription market.
Capex
JBCPL has drawn plans to invest Rs 140 crs in creation of
additional capacity for tablets, liquid, ointments, vials,
eye drops and lozenges in order to seize future growth
opportunities. In addition the company is also planning
to increase the capacity of Diclofenac API Plant. This
expansion programme is expected to be completed in
next 12-18 months through internal accruals. This new
capacity is going to drive the company’s growth in the
long term. It will boost exports as 98% of API is exported
and 2% is utilized in domestic consumption. In Q4FY15,
API sales stood at Rs 25.59 crs as compared to 22.96 crs in
corresponding quarter last year.
BSU Contribution to sales in Q4FY15
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Financials & Valuation
The net sales for the quarter Q4FY15 at Rs. 255.09 crores
were 11.59% higher against net sales in the corresponding
quarter in the previous year. The operating margins stood
at 16.6% in Q4FY15.
The domestic formulations business at overall sales of Rs.
96.18 crores registered growth of 13.21% in Q4FY15. The
prescription products sales at Rs. 86.38 crores registered
growth of 12.29%, while contrast media products sales at
Rs. 9.81 crores registered a growth of 21.99%.
The formulations exports at Rs. 124.48 crores registered
growth of 7.48% during the quarter. The exports of
formulations to Rest of the world markets at Rs. 81.07
crores registered growth of 9.38% in Rupee terms. The
exports for Russia-CIS markets at Rs. 20.44 crores were
9.57% higher. API sales for Q4FY15 at Rs 25.59crs were
11.52% higher compared to the same quarter last year.
The consolidated net sales (including other operating
income) at Rs 1144.22 crores in FY15, registered a growth
of 12% over the previous year. Consolidated operating
profit was at Rs 180.34 crs .The consolidated net profit
was affected by Rs.14.89 crs on account of depreciation of
Russian rouble. The consolidated profit before tax and
profit after tax stood at Rs. 145.55 crs and Rs 100.41crs
respectively.
A rich cash balance of Rs 568 crs in FY15, keeps alive the
scope for inorganic initiative by the company. The
company’s capex plan of Rs 140 crs is progressing well.
Capex will be funded through the internal accruals. We
believe consolidated sales would grow at a CAGR of
13.5% over the period of FY15-FY17.
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Cross Sectional Analysis
Risks & Concerns
Drugs Prices Control Order
India’s Department of Pharmaceuticals on May 15th 2013 published the Drug Price Control Order (DPCO), bringing 652
drugs under government price controls, which will make use of market-based pricing calculations to set retail price
ceilings. Prices of drugs included in the DPCOs ambit are expected to soften due to this order. The company’s product
basket of drugs for which ceiling prices have been fixed can be affected.
Export
The company exported nearly 11% to Russia & CIS in FY15. The current political situation in Russia and Ukraine and
Depreciation of rouble against US Dollar has impacted business. These are potential markets for the company’s products
and the company is watching the situation in these markets.
Margin pressure
Margins have been under pressure mainly due to sluggishness in sales and increasing competitive intensity. If the slide in
sales persists, then maintaining margins would get tougher. The rising costs on one hand and price control on other
remain a concern.
Company Equity* CMP^ Mcap*
OP.
Inc.*# Profit* OPM NPM# ROE
Mkt
cap /
OI P/BV P/E
Sun Pharma.Inds. 241 948 228045 27433 4744 28.5 17.3 21.1 8.3 8.6 48.1
Dr Reddy's Labs 85 3877 66127 14819 2218 17.1 15.0 22.0 4.5 5.9 29.8
Aurobindo Pharma 29 1516 44256 12121 1576 21.1 13.0 35.4 3.7 8.6 28.1
Glenmark Pharma 28 1091 30792 6645 662 15.6 10.0 22.1 4.6 7.8 46.5
Piramal Enterprise 35 976 16835 5123 460 17.3 9.0 4.4 3.3 1.4 36.6
JBCPL 17 270 2286 1144 115 17.1 10.1 11.3 2.0 2.3 19.8
^CMP as on 17/7/2015
* in Rs Crs
# Operating Income &
NPM FY15
** ROE FY15
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Financials
Quarterly Results Standalone Figures in Rs crs
Q4FY15 Q4FY14 % chg. FY15 FY14 % chg.
Income from operations 255.10 228.60 11.59 1061.43 956.53 10.97
Other income 4.31 14.22 -69.69 10.41 41.69 -75.03
Total income 259.41 242.82 6.83 1071.84 998.22 7.38
Total expenditure 212.88 210.83 0.97 868.48 870.94 -0.28
PBIDT 46.53 31.99 45.45 203.36 127.28 59.77
Interest 0.22 0.86 -74.42 6.65 6.13 8.48
Depreciation 7.58 6.17 22.85 37.60 27.17 38.39
PBT 38.73 24.96 55.17 159.11 93.98 69.30
Tax 12.99 3.52 269.03 45.52 25.56 78.09
PAT 25.74 21.44 20.06 113.59 68.42 66.02
Extraordinary item - - - -14.89 -28.86 -48.4
Adjusted net profit 25.74 21.44 20.06 128.48 97.28 32.07 EPS (F.V. 2) 3.04 2.53 20.16 15.16 11.48 32.07
Consolidated Income Statement Figures in Rs crs
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e
Income from operations 866.13 1021.87 1144.22 1276.13 1473.35
Growth (%) 8.0 18.0 12.0 11.5 15.5
Other Income 26.65 36.81 10.89 15.01 18.78
Total Income 892.78 1058.68 1155.11 1291.14 1492.13
Total Expenditure 760.48 937.88 963.88 1063.02 1213.19
EBITDA 132.30 120.80 191.23 228.12 278.93
Interest 4.06 5.33 7.04 7.37 5.92
EBDT 128.24 115.47 184.19 220.76 273.01
Depreciation 24.66 28.02 38.64 43.49 45.43
Tax 24.13 25.95 45.14 46.09 61.45
Reported PAT 79.45 61.50 100.41 131.18 166.14
Extraordinary item 16.62 -27.10 -14.89 - -
Adjusted Net Profit 62.83 88.60 115.30 131.18 166.14
EPS (Rs.) 7.42 10.45 13.60 15.47 19.59
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Consolidated Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs
FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital 16.94 16.95 16.96 16.96 16.96
Reserves 1003.33 1025.87 977.91 1068.26 1193.57
Total Shareholders Funds 1020.27 1042.82 994.87 1085.22 1210.53
Total Debt 50.10 93.20 127.28 112.28 85.00
Other Liabilities 8.23 12.19 12.03 11.00 10.00
Total Liabilities 1078.60 1148.21 1134.18 1208.50 1305.53
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 537.54 540.54 652.36 702.36 727.36
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 203.06 229.99 268.63 312.12 357.55
Net Block 334.48 310.55 383.73 390.24 369.81
Capital Work in Progress 4.73 46.36 - - -
Investments 397.67 500.01 551.27 490.00 475.00
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventory 104.53 134.40 150.27 166.83 193.75
Sundry Debtors 191.27 235.51 262.35 280.69 333.21
Cash and Bank 156.23 11.81 25.19 23.28 92.56
Loans and Advances 96.98 101.67 97.27 100.00 95.00
Total CA & LA 549.01 483.39 535.08 570.80 714.52
Current liabilities 156.07 147.80 180.91 189.50 202.77
Provisions 40.54 35.76 151.62 50.83 50.83
Total Current Liabilities 196.61 183.56 332.53 240.33 253.60
Net Current Assets 352.40 299.83 202.55 330.47 460.92
Net Deferred Tax -24.98 -19.25 -20.21 -20.21 -20.21
Other Assets 14.30 10.71 16.84 18.00 20.00
Total Assets 1078.60 1148.21 1134.18 1208.50 1305.53
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Key Financial Ratios
FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e FY17e
Growth Ratios
Revenue (%) 8.0 18.0 12.0 11.5 15.5
EBIDTA (%) -16.3 52.9 23.3 10.7 22.3
Net Profit (%) -5.6 41.0 30.1 13.8 26.7
EPS (%) -5.6 41.0 30.1 13.8 26.7
Margins
Operating Profit Margin (%) 12.2 14.5 17.1 16.7 17.7
Gross Profit Margin (%) 12.2 15.8 17.4 17.3 18.5
Net Profit Margin (%) 7.3 8.7 10.1 10.3 11.3
Return
ROCE (%) 8.0 12.5 14.7 15.8 18.6
RONW (%) 6.3 8.6 11.3 12.6 14.5
Valuations
Market Cap / Sales 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.6
P/E 10.0 12.3 14.7 17.4 13.8
P/BV 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.9
Other Ratios
Interest Coverage 20.9 26.1 23.8 25.1 39.5
Debt-Equity Ratio 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Current Ratio 2.8 2.6 1.6 2.4 2.8
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.8
Total Asset Turnover 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1
Debtors Turnover 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.8
Inventory Turnover 7.4 7.9 6.8 6.6 6.8
Creditors Turnover 12.8 13.2 12.8 12.8 12.8
Working Capital Turnover 2.1 3.1 4.5 4.7 3.6
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Recommendation
JBCPL’s wide geographical presence in international markets and strong product portfolio with high growth brands
and strong marketing capability gives a positive outlook for overall business of the company. The company has
crossed the iconic milestone of Rs 1000 cr sales mark in FY14. The company has embarked on to the next phase of
journey in July 2011, post sale of the Russia-CIS OTC business, and the company has made a comeback in just three
years by effectively focusing on growth markets internationally. The supply agreement with Cilag GmbH
International (‘Cilag’), a wholly owned subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, has been functioning smoothly.
The increase in per capita income, and in turn the increase in per capita consumption of drugs, improved healthcare
access and increasing health awareness are expected to continue to aid growth opportunity in domestic formulations
business. As successful penetration into new markets will accelerate the next level of growth, the company believes
that its well established brands will be the strong pillar around which the company will grow.
The international business poses challenges, such as increased competition, rapidly changing regulatory environment
and increasing span of price controls in some markets. However, the company is optimistic about its good growth
prospects.
The R&D division of the company continues to play an important role in the company’s growth. Its R&D is currently
focused on the new formulations development and ANDAs filings. The company has enhanced its focus on US
market and plans to file new ANDAs and is also considering backward manufacturing of APIs used in these ANDAs
to make the business more profitable. JBCPL has envisaged capex of Rs140 crs to be spent in next 12-18 months. This
capex is progressing as per schedule. The consolidated income from operation in FY15 registered a growth of 12%
YoY. The political situation in Russia and Ukraine and depreciation of rouble against US dollar also impacted the
business. The situation has improved in these markets after April, but the company is cautiously watching the
developments in these markets. The company has around Rs 568 crs (Cash + Investments) as on FY15. The company
does not plan to invest this money in haste and will invest it when the right opportunity emerges.
The company has a consistent, strong free cash flow annually, with a low debt-equity of 0.1x. With the
commencement of the sales and distribution of products from its wholly owned subsidiary in Dubai, we expect
revenues and profit to grow at a CAGR of 13.5% & 20.0%, respectively over 2015-17. The stock at the price of Rs 270
trades at 17.4x FY16e earnings and 13.8x FY17e earnings. Strong traction in domestic business & expansion of capacities
will drive future growth. Therefore, we recommend BUY on the stock with target of Rs 333 based on 17x FY17e
earnings, (PEG Ratio 0.85), over the next 9-12 months.
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