GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
http://www.ecowin.org/smile/
Carrying Capacity as an Ecosystem Management tool,
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
• Hydrodynamic model – simulates the circulation and phytoplankton productivity. Used to generate water exchange and boundary conditions to implement ecological models
• Shellfish model – Growth predicted by ShellSIM of individual shellfish species is used in the EcoWIN ecological model to simulate the population dynamics of cultivated oysters and mussels
• EcoWIN2000(E2K) is an ecological model that provides a platform for integration of the other models and adds functionality of its own. Runs for multi-year periods
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
Modelling frameworkRun Delft 3D for large domain (Western Irish Sea and four
loughs) using a fine grid (each lough has hundreds of cells)
Define larger boxes (<50) within the loughs with GIS for
E2K using (I) current and bathymetry data (ii) WFD (iii)
aquaculture distribution
Use D3D to calculate water fluxes across these larger
boxes at 30m intervals, and at the seaward boundary of the lough domain – supply these
offline as spreadsheets
Hydrodynamic transport simulated in E2K by reading
these spreadsheet files during an E2K model run
Prepare a water quality database including both the individual lough and inputs from freshwater and ocean boundaries
(measurements)
Enter larger box areas, volumes
etc from GIS into E2K
Run full E2K model, calibrate
and validate
Simulate individual shellfish physiology
using a raceway model
Use results to conceptualise an
energy budget model for individual growth
Implement and validate individual growth model in Stella or other simple
modelling package
Measure individual shellfish growth rates in the field
Implement individual growth model in E2K,
test, and then add population dynamics
Extract E2K initial conditions for state variables in each box,
boundary conditions and calibration data
Delft3D
EcoWin2000
ShellSim2006
Management scenarios
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
SMILE is an ecosystem model, a series of interconnected boxes
34 boxes, 2 layers
Criteria for boxes:
Water framework DirectiveTopographyBiogeochemistry
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
Strangford Lough
340 boxes8 layers
34 boxes2 σ layers
EcoWin2000ecological model
A much coarser grid is used in biogeochemical models than in hydrodynamic models.
Delft3DDelft3DHydrodynamic modelHydrodynamic model
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
So far!• Developed growth models for Modiolus modiolus,
Ostrea edulis and Pecten maximus in addition to existing species
• Growth models integrated into software to check that individual growth can be accurately scaled up for ecosystem models
• SMILE model framework changed to deal with three new species
• Now in position to simulate growth in certain areas at varying densities
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
Objectives
• Examine growth of Modiolus
• Simulate growth
• Investigate growth at varying stocking densities for Modiolus
• Determine optimal locations for restoration
• Examine knock-on effects
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
ShellSIM – simulation of shellfish growth
Real time feeding experiments required to measure Modiolus
feeding rates. Experiments show how temp and food availability
effect feeding. Allowing us to model how changes in the
lough (or different areas) will effect Modiolus feeding and hence
growth
With the addition of population dynamics to the individual model,
shellfish stocks can be modelled over mutil-year periods (E2K)
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
• Simulated temperature, illustrating northern and southern trends. Matches well with measured values.
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
Simulated temperature graph
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Box 21
Box 22Year 1 Year 2
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Strangford LoughBox 22 - Lough entrance
Phytoplankton (µg Chla l-1) SPM (mg l-1)
POM (mg l-1)DIN (µmol l-1)
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
Simulated growth curve for Pecten maximus
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0 365 730 1095 1460 1825 2190 2555 2920 3285 3650 4015 4380 4745 5110 5475 5840
Julian Days over 15 years
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Observed growth
Simulated growth
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
M. modiolus growth
y = 25.058Ln(x) + 13.677
R2 = 0.6814
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shell length
Log. (shell length)
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
Modiolus individual growth
size refuge/ sexual maturity
match to measured growth, 10y mean length of 7cm
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Box 27
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Year 5 Year 10
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
Possible factors
POM at 50
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Phytoplankton biomass at 50
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NB. Important to remember, only modelling Mytilus, Crassostrea and Modiolus at present, need to turn on wild species and additional aquaculture species
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
• Food does not seem to be limiting!
• Other factors, including:
• Suitable habitat
• Predation pressure
• Brood stock availability…..
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
Next step
• Integrate Wild species
• Turn on new Aquaculture species
• Invite scenarios
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
GEM – Geochemical and Ecological Modelling
http://www.ecowin.org/Address
.
Operate at Eunis level three or four;
Rather than worrying about individual species use broadscale habitat layers;
Assign loss rates or or “feeding” rates based on top five keystone species;
Each habitat will be assigned a feeding type – i.e deposit, suspension feeder;
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