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CapitalVue Research Analytics Macro and Industrial Data
China in Numbers – Macro Update, March 2013
Credit Outpaces GDP Growth, Consumption Contributes More to Growth
Social Financing Hits All-Time High, Loan Growth Lags
Inflation Falls, PMI Hits 11-Month High
Exports Increase, Along with Questions
Income Growth Declines
Investment vs. Consumption
Property Continues to Rebound
The Li Keqiang Index – Loans, Electricity Use, Rail Freight
Capital Markets, Capital Supplies, Exchange Rates
Key Data : NBS, NDRC, China Customs, Brokers, CapitalVue
1
A select sample brought to you by [email protected]
7.70
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
5
10
15
20
Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13
GDP, left Total Financing, 3 month avg
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13
Exports Investment Consumption GDP growth
3
0%
50%
100%
150%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Total Social Financing (left) Loan proportion of total
37%
6%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Total Financing Loans
6.15
0
2
4
6
8
2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
15.70
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
4
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
PPI CPI Core CPI Food CPI
5
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13
Trade Balance, $Mn (right) Exports Imports
6
7
16.40
0
20
40
60
80
8
67
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13
9
9.20
0
4
8
12
16
20
Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13
10
11
12
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