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Page 1: Caglioni, Fusco, Minvielle & Moreno - input2012

Prospecting the Evolution of a Suburban Wine-

growing Region through Multi-Agent Systems

Matteo CAGLIONI1, Giovanni FUSCO1, Paul MINVIELLE2, Diego MORENO1

Input 2012 Special Session: Spatial Strategic Foresight

Cagliari, May 12th2012

Matteo CAGLIONI1, Giovanni FUSCO1, Paul MINVIELLE2, Diego MORENO1

1 UMR 7300 ESPACE, Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis2 UMR 7303 TELEMME, Aix-Marseille-Université

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Content Overview

1. Introduction

2. Methodology

3. Geosimulation

4. Conclusion

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N

N

Le Castellet

La Cadière Le Beausset

The Bandol wine-growing region1

Bandol AOC perimeter

1941: Obtention of the AOC Label

AOC perimeter: 1570 ha planted in 2000 (RGA).

A wine-growing region between

Marseilles and Toulon

N

0 5km

d’Azur

St Cyr s/mer

Bandol

Evenos

Sanary

Ollioules

0 2 km

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The socio-economic context

• The wine-producing world : wine-growers / wine-

makers, the Bandol Association (ODG), the INAO

• The urban world : land developers, households,

municipal governments, metropolitan government

1

municipal governments, metropolitan government

• Growing concern from ODG and INAO on the

consequences of municipal/metropolitan governments

plans on the future of wine-growing

: social demand for a prospective research on

wine-growing landscape in the Bandol region

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Exploring the future of vineyard landscapes

• A research action within the PATERMED project (ANR

Systerra): exploring the future of vineyard landscapes in

the Bandol region – on going partnership with INAO and

ODG Bandol

1

• Urban / Rural interaction: urban pressure on agricultural

land + financial input from urban development into

winegrowing

• Importance of agent strategies and interactions resulting

in (and being shaped by) spatial structures

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Modelling urban / rural interaction

• Modeling choices : MAS approach + Sensitivity Analysis

for scenario building

• Which elements and process are to be included in the

model? What implementation within a MAS approach?

2

model? What implementation within a MAS approach?

• What outputs are relevant in a spatially informed

strategic foresight?

Two-phase modelling process: 1) Model development and

exploration for a small virtual world

2) Model implementation and

validation with real-world data

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Input - Output Model Structure

cadastral map

land use

future cadastral map

future land use

NetLogo

2

MODEL

Land use plan

wine growers’ structure

future wine growers’

structure

exogenous

variables:

-housing demand

-urban land price

-price of wine

-interest rate

-:

Synthetic Indicators:

- Wine-growing economy

- Landscape Ecology

- :

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Semantic categories of space

Land use Land use plan

URBAN

- Consolidated city

- Road network

EXISTING

URBANISATION

Space under

urban pressure

Pixels and

parcels

2

- Road network

- Subdivisions

- Individual housing

AGRICULTURAL

- Vineyards

- Rural wasteland

- Other agriculture

NATURAL

WATER BODIES

NEW

URBANISATION

POSSIBLE

NEW

URBANISATION

FORBIDDEN: but

not for everyone

parcels

neighbouring

urban land

uses

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Spatial structure of the agents2

Agents

wine

grower

Agents

parcel

[list of parcels]

parcels patches

(landscape

ecology

units)[list of cells] 25m x 25m

cells

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Wine-grower agents:

lifecycle and social relationshipsage capital

2

At the end of the active life (65years), how many children want to take over parent’s activity?

0Sell property or

Sharecropping

1Property

transmission

2+Property

division

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Different contexts for land sale

1. 2. 3.

2

From winegrowers at the

end of their career without

children who want to take

over the activity

From winegrowers without

residual financial capital and

negative revenues

From winegrowers

with parcel(s) under

urban pressure and

urbanizable

The winegrower agent sell (all) their

parcels and exits the system

(eventually sharecropping agreement)

The winegrower agent sells one

or more parcels and can buy

other parcels further away

To other winegrower(s) To real estate promoters

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Winegrower’s economic function

= α S - t K - f ( S , dc ) - f ( c )

Bandol produce capital cost logistic costs fix costs

(including cost of living)

independent

cooperative

independent

cooperative

independent

cooperative

∆Cumulated

capital

2

(including cost of living)

K capital

S surface [ha]

dc distance from the logistic center

α value of net winegrowing produce per ha

t interest rate

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Flow diagrams of processes in the model

Process of parcel purchase Process of parcel sale

Process of property transmission

2

Process of land development through individual housingProcess of land development through subdivision

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A small wine-growing region3

LandLand--UseUse LandLand--OwnershipOwnership

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Trend Scenario after 20 years3

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Trend Scenario after 40 years3

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Increased subdivision development after 40 years3

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Increased individual housing development

after 40 years3

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Lower Bandol wine price, after 40 years3

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Conclusion: what the model can do

• Dialectics between agent micro-behaviours and

emergence of meso- and macro- spatial structures

• Role of basic social and economical interaction within

vineyards development

4

vineyards development

• Role of land ownership structure and demographic

variables within vineyards and urban development

• Impacts of urban pressure, land-use plans and

exogenous economic variables on vineyards landscapes

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Conclusion: what the model cannot do

• Land-use plans and urban dynamics are exogenous

• Very limited modeling of interaction with different

agricultural activities

4

• Topological / accessibility properties of road networks are

not modeled

• Landscape modeling is limited to land-use quantification

(no qualitative aspects like perceptions, heritage

conservation, nor 3D rendering of landscapes)

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Conclusion: the role of a MAS model in

Spatial Strategic Foresight

• Not a prediction model, but a tool to explore the possible

futures of the landscape under coherent sets of

hypotheses

• Integration of socio-economic and spatial processes,

4

beyond the black box of CA modeling

• But : danger of over-complexifying process modeling

• A precious tool to understand the role of key variables

and policies in a spatially informed strategic foresight

: next step: scenario building

For the model as well as for the strategic foresight approach,

validation will come from real-world application.

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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention

[email protected]

[email protected]

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Weak urban pressure, after 40 years

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Higher Bandol wine price, after 40 years

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Lower urban land price, after 40 years

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Higher urban land price, after 40 years

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Lower children take over probability, after 40 years