Beyond 2011 – A new paradigm for population statistics?
Pete Benton, Beyond 2011 Programme Director
Office for National Statistics, UK
Programme Purpose
• Established April 2011
• To identify the best way to provide small area population and socio-demographic statistics in future
• Provide a recommendation in 2014- with cost-benefit analysis- design for implementation
Context
• Census – every 10 years for over 200 years• The potential for change
- Rapidly changing society- Evolving user requirements- Technological advances- Improved data sources- Improved data access
• Successful 2011 Census- The only approach possible in 2011
Approach
• Review user needs• Consider possible census approaches• Evaluate using published criteria, including:
- cost
- statistical quality
- social and economic benefit
- public acceptability
- risk
• Publish findings in 2014• Final decision for Government and Parliament
Beyond 2011 : Statistical options
Aggregate analysis
100% linkage to create ‘statistical population spine’
(Intermediate) Sample linkage e.g. 1% of postcodes
Address register + Survey
Administrativedata options
Traditional Census (long form to everyone)
Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period)
Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample)
Short Form + Annual Survey (US model)
Censusoptions
Surveyoption(s)
Beyond 2011 : Statistical options
100% linkage
Administrativedata options
Traditional Census (long form to everyone)
Censusoptions
4% survey every year
Two potential future approaches
• A census once a decade, primarily online
Provides detailed statistics once every ten yearswith updated population estimates each year
• A census using existing government data and compulsory annual surveys
Provides more statistics each year, but less detail than an online census once a decade
Administrative data and surveys
Potential data sources:
•NHS Patient Register•DWP/HMRC Customer Information System•Electoral roll (> 17 yrs)•School Census (5-15 yrs)•Higher Education Statistics Agency (Students)•Birth and Death registrations
•All sources anonymised prior to linkage
Major statistical challenges
• No population register• Data quality
Incomplete
Out of date
Duplicates / erroneous entries
• Little reliable population attribute data
Þ Coverage survey requiredÞ Attribute survey required
2011 Patient register population counts compared with 2011 Census population estimates
Patient register is …
More than 13 % lower 8.5% to 13% lower 3.8% to 8.5% lower Within 3.8% 3.8% to 8.5% higher 8.5% to 13% higher More than 13 % higher
Tax register population counts compared with 2011 Census population estimates
Tax system is …
More than 13 % lower 8.5% to 13% lower 3.8% to 8.5% lower Within 3.8% 3.8% to 8.5% higher 8.5% to 13% higher More than 13 % higher
Linked admin data compared with 2011 Census population estimates
Linked admin data is …
More than 13 % lower 8.5% to 13% lower 3.8% to 8.5% lower Within 3.8% 3.8% to 8.5% higher 8.5% to 13% higher More than 13 % higher
Population Pyramids using linked admin data
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990+
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
population (millions)
Administrative data method population pyramid with Census comparison: England & Wales
Admininstrativedata methodCensus
Males FemalesAdmininstrativedata methodCensus
SPD 5
Population characteristics – potential outputs
• 4% random sample per year • Gives Coefficient of Variation of 20% for
800 people using 1 year’s data• Any geographic level• Any cell in a cross-tabulation
320 people using 2 years’ data
230 people using 3 years’ data
130 people using 5 years’ data
• Additional topics from administrative data?E.g. Household income?
Public Consultation
• 23 Sept to 13 December• Series of user and other events over next
three months• Consultation Document (and lots of
supporting material and research papers) on ONS website
• Views welcome from anyone
Key risks of a census using administrative data and surveys
• Public opinion
• Data quality / technical challenge
• Changes in administrative datasets
• Managing the transition if moving to a census using administrative data
• Harmonisation of UK outputs
Next steps
• Review consultation responses• Consider legislative implications• Consider risks and potential transition plans• Consider implications for wider statistical
system (surveys; IT systems)
… Conclusions in 2014
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