Objectives1. To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the
involvement of key stakeholders
2. To provide a substantial basis for discussion of different energy scenarios for the region based on an analysis of energy data
May 2008 Oct 2009
Process
Feb 2009
Developing scenarios
ScenarioAnalyses
Fuel pricesEnergy
demand
Infrastructure
Technology
data Renewable resources
Efficiency measures
Stakeholder dialogue
CO2-emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
DG TREN1990
DG TREN2005
Ref_North NorthScenario
DG TREN2030
Storage CO2
Other energy
Electricity and district heat
Tranport
Results
Phase I
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005
TJ/M€ Energy intensity
Old democracies New democracies
-
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
2005 Reference 2030 Small-Tech Big-Tech
PJ
Gross energy consumption
Nuclear
RE
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
50% oil target
-200
-
200
400
600
800
1.000
Mt CO2 / year CO2- emissions
Other energy
Electricity and district heat
Transport
Stored CO2
50% CO2 target
Targets for 2030CO2: -50 % (1990)Oil: -50 % (2005)
Phase II
• Targets– 2020: EU targets for CO2 and RE
– 2030: 50 % CO2 reduction compared to 1990
• Model decides new investments in generation capacity except nuclear and hydro power
• Fuel prices according to International Energy Agency - 120 $/bbl in 2030
• Baseline scenario and three variations– Regional targets for renewable energy– Lower electricity demand– More CO2 reduction in 2020
Detailed analyses of the electricity markets 2010-2030
Utilisation of biomass resources
Long term potential for forestry residues and energy crops
Long term biogas potential
Long term biowaste potential
Long term municipal waste potential
-
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
PJ
Utilization of biomass resources
Biogas Biowaste Municipal waste Forestry residues and energy crops
CO2emissions
• Marginal CO2 price - 7 €/ton in 2020- 60 €/ton in 2030
Marginal cost of increasing RE generation0 – 30 €/MWh in 20200 - 11 €/MWh in 2030
Scenario variations
• Regional target for increasing the share of renewable energy– Benefit: 5 billion Euro NPV , One RE price: 19 €/MWh
• 10 percentage points additional CO2 reduction in 2020– Cost: 16 billion Euro NPV, CO2-price in 2020: 7 => 30 €/ton
• Lower electricity demand (approx. -22 %)– Benefit: > 100 billion Euro NPV
(excl. cost of saving measures)– Electricity price: 40-50 €/MWh in 2020
Key findings
• The targets can be met at reasonable costs
• Potential for more efficient generation and consumption
• Benefits of regional cooperation– Interconnectors– Electricity markets– RE policies and projects
• Stronger targets are possible
Recommendations from the stakeholder dialogue• shared vision “A Green Valley of
Europe”• energy stakeholder forum• regional projects• common interconnector strategy• action plan for efficient and
sustainable heating• common regional training
programme
Phase III
• Modellling tool and data for the whole region is now available
• How to utilise this potential in the third project phase?
• Suggestions for further analyses– Develop a ”strategy scenario” with input from
each country in the region– Identify and evaluate concrete projects in
cooperation with stakeholders– Expand the scope to 2050
Phase III
• Input for- EU Baltic Sea Region strategy in parallel with
Baltic Energy Market and Interconnector Plan (BEMIP)
- Regional perspective on the National renewable energy Action Plans and national energy efficiency efforts
Input from BDF Summit
• The study could provide useful input for concretisation of EU Baltic Sea Strategy – climate, economy and security of supply
• We need concrete plans and actions – ”lighthouse projects”– Grids and wind power– Combined heat and power and energy efficiency– Training and education
• Incorporate national policies in the study (including nuclear) – develop a road map for the region
• Look at a portfolio of technology options, include a technological development, e.g. solar and wave
• Expand the scope to 2050 – explore ”truly” sustainable scenarios (no fossil fuels)
Top Related