BASELINE SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS
EXERCISE
SES development using country/region storylines
Drivers
• Factors important for shaping future of your sector (for instance energy, agriculture and food security, health, coastal zone, …) over next 20 years
• Some are given (climate change, population growth)
• Others are uncertain and will vary depending upon decisions made in region (markets, agricultural policy).
Step 1: Identify Drivers to the year 2030
• Think back over last 30 years: what were the key drivers that shaped today’s situation?
• Think of next 20 years: what will be the key drivers?
• How will these key drivers interact?
• Define 4 scenarios
• Develop storyline and if possible add quantitative information.
Questions to ask Yourself when Developing Storylines
• Would globalisation slow or even begin to reverse?
• Will we see changed political entities in the future (eg. strong regionalisation or resource-based boundaries)?
• What pressure would climate change put on developing countries which are less resilient to its impacts? Will these pressures be manageable?
• How co-ordinated will the global political response to climate change be?
• What relationships might evolve between low-income countries and the rest of the world?
• What will become of overseas development aid – where will climate change fit in?
• How high will climate change sit on the political agendas of high and middle-income countries
• Will mitigation mechanisms be effective?
Examples of Questions Towards Development of Storyline for Food Security and Agriculture
• What development and investment choices will your country make in order to meet its projected food security needs?
• What mix of agricultural production and food imports is desired, and how does this mix enhance or detract from adaptation capacity, vulnerability, and food security of the country?
• Will development emphasize globalization and increased reliance on imported food? If so, what type of industrialization is desired and are the resources available to undertake that pathway?
• The questions need to be tailored depending on national circumstances.
SRES A storylines
SRES B Storylines
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