What should I do and why should I believe you?
Christopher J. Kramer
Argonne National Laboratory
Chicago, IL
• Us and Them!
• Risk and Crisis Communication
• We get dumb
• Believe me
What will we talk about?
Before I begin – a disclaimer…
Major flaw in social sciences
96% from US and Western Europe
7% of global population
We aren’t the world
How does the public view science – and how do scientists view the public
Us and Them
Television and Movies
People form opinions from what they see in entertainment.
“Cultivation”
Most people like science and think highly of scientists...
84% think science has positive effect on society
70% think scientists contribute to society’s well being
SOURCE: Pew Research Center
Unfortunately
the love isn’t
necessarily
shared...
Us and Them...
Most scientists think that the public is ignorant
SOURCE: Pew Research Center
They may have a point...
What the public doesn’t know...
SOURCE: National Science Foundation
38% don’t know the father’s gene decides the sex of baby
55% can’t explain why you see lightning before you hear thunder
28% don’t know that the Earth revolves around the Sun
49% don’t know that it takes the Earth one year to revolve around the Sun
SOURCE: National Science Foundation
What the public doesn’t know...
We don’t
know jack
about science!
It’s part of a larger problem...
How do we rate internationally?
1 China
2 Singapore
3 Japan
4 Estonia
5 Taiwan
6 Finland
7 Macao
8 Canada
9 Vietnam
10 South Korea
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/15/u-s-students-internationally-math-science/
11 Slovenia
12 New Zealand
13 Australia
14 Germany
15 Netherlands
16 UK
17 Switzerland
18 Ireland
19 Denmark
20 Belgium
21 Poland
22 Portugal
23 Norway
24 USA
25 France
26 Austria
27 Sweden
28 Spain
29 Czech
30 Latvia
31 Russian Fed
32 Luxembourg
33 Italy
34 Hungary
35 Croatia
36 Lithuania
37 Iceland
38 Israel
39 Malta
40 Slovakia
So how can you expect them to understand information about health, bio safety and security issues?
Some Definitions
Risk vs. Crisis
What is Risk?
The probability that a natural, technological, or civil threat to people, property, and the environment will occur
Godschalk, 1991
What is Risk?
Something bad mayhappen.
Risk Perception – it’s subjective
• Media coverage
• Human created
• Sense of control
• Familiarity
• Adult or child?
Preparing for Risk
People like “us” sharing information
Behaviors vs. science or impact
Repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat...
Three things motivate preparedness
Mileti, et all, UCLA
What is a Crisis?
Occurrence with potentially negative outcome affecting an organization, company or industry, as well as its publics, products, services, or good name
Fearn-Banks, 1996
Something bad hashappened
What is a Crisis?
We get dumb...During a crisis people are afraid -our ability to process and understand information is diminished
Keep it simple
Simple, direct messages, directions, actions to take
Repetition, repetition, repetition…
What people want to know…
Message Triangle
Crisis Information tips
• Be first with information
• Tell people what to expect
– Likely to happen
– Worst case?
• Give them something to do
Communicating Science in a Crisis
• Avoid jargon
• Clear, concise
• Make technical details clear –simple comparisons
• Don’t make promises that can’t be kept
People, Alerts and Warnings
• No panic
• People are “information hungry”
• Most effective when frequently repeated
• People want information from multiple sources
• “Milling”
• Instructions must make common sense
Mileti & Sorensen, 1990
But even if you do it all the right way I still might not believe you!
The Shortcut –
Heuristics
How we decide...
Lenses we see through
Religious
Political
Economic
Education
Biological
Generational
Cultural
Kahan, et. All, 2007
Reasoning is suffused with emotion
Positive or negative feelings about people, things, ideas arise much more rapidly than our conscious thoughts
Lenses we see through
Cognitive Bias
Individuals create their own “subjective social reality” from their perception
Often irrational
Information Fight or Flight
Encountering information that is contrary to our established world view invokes a response similar to facing physical danger
Cognitive Dissonance
Confirmation bias
People accept what they like at face value and subject what they don’t like to critical evaluation drawing undue support for their initial position
Lord, Ross, and Lepper 1979
Polarization of opinion
Lord, Ross, and Lepper 1979
People with opposing views interpret new information in a biased way, their views can move even further apart
To summarize…
• People don’t know much about science
• When people are afraid they do not process information well
• Even with all the facts they might still not believe you
6 Crisis Communication Failures
• Mixed messages from multiple “official” sources
• Information released late
• Not countering misinformation in real time
• Public power struggles and confusion
• Over reassuring
How to succeed
• Have a plan - practice• Be first and consistent• Understand they don’t know• Understand they are afraid• Be honest• Simplify• Communicate like they do• Listen• Keep information flowing• Repeat, repeat, repeat
Christopher J. [email protected] 630-252-5580www.anl.gov
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