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Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:
ArcelorMittal Dofasco, ArcelorMittal USA, Nucor Corporation,
Severstal North America, Inc. and United States Steel Corporation
Future of Steel in the
Automobiles of 21st Century
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Presenter
Raj Sohmshetty,
Ford Motor Company
Automobiles of 21st Century
• Steel has been a leader in automobile
applications since 1920s
• Will steel continue to be a leading material
in automotive structures in the coming
Background
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in automotive structures in the coming
decades?
– Drivers for change
– Technical and economic aspects
– Possible future scenarios
Cosmological models predict that …
Iron Atoms
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... all the matter will become Iron!… given enough time!! ☺
The nucleus of iron has
the highest binding
energy per nucleon.
Future of Steel in Autos - Outline
• Introduction & History
• Design Considerations
• Manufacturing Considerations
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• Business Considerations
• Conclusion/Survey
Acknowledgements
• The following individuals helped with the
preparation/review of this presentation:
– ArcelorMittal: Ravir Bhatnagar, …
– USS: Guofei Chen, Bart De Pompolo, …
– Ford: Rakshit Ramachandra, Cedric Xia, Joe
Weishar, Carl Johnson, Shawn Morgans, …
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Weishar, Carl Johnson, Shawn Morgans, …
– Toyota: Umesh Gandhi
• References used in this presentation are
mentioned on the slides.
Vehicle Weight
Body
WeightChassis
Weight
P/T
Weight
1/31/3
1/3
Hot Rolled
Sheet Steels
Cold Rolled
Sheet SteelsCastings &
Forgings
Vehicle Weight Composition
Optimize Shock/Axle
Bracket
Shock Tower -Eliminate
Hydroform rear axle tube
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• Currently, steel is the primary material in body and chassis structures.
• Aluminum is a distant second – primarily used engine blocks, wheels, and some closures; and in premium/niche vehicles.
Micro Alloy
Steel Front
Springs
DP600 Wheel Disks
CAE Optimize
leaf springs
Radius Arm-
deeper draw and
change material
to SF590
Shock Tower -Eliminate
powder coat
Optimize design and
Strengthen material and
add patchwork blank if
stiffness is required
Common Radius
arm between
F250 and F450
Make integrated rear
bumper / trailer hitch
as on P415
Reduce tow hook
dia by 1.0mm
94.5
75
100
2009 Worldwide Light Vehicle Material Content All Segments - Segmented by Type of Material* -
66.4 percent of the material content is ferrous based. aluminum is 7.8 percent of the total content. This equates to nearly ten million metric tons of aluminum shipmentsincluding customer offal, other scrap and spare parts
Polymers,
Glass,
Wood,
Rubber,
Coatings,
Textiles and Based on Forecast of 72.3 Million Vehicles
Vehicle Material Composition
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40.2
18.4 18.0
9.9
49.3
0
25
50
Flat Steel Other Steel Iron Aluminum Other Metals Non Metallic's
Material Type
Bil
lio
ns
of
Po
un
ds
*Excludes Scrap & Includes only original Equipment
100%
Castings81%
Castings
Copper,
Lead, Zinc,
Mg,
Platinum
and Titanium
Textiles and
FluidsBased on Forecast of 72.3 Million Vehicles
actual 2009 results could be 20% lower
Source: Ducker Worldwide
North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content
2009 Compared to 2006
11.44
11.29
31.46
53.49
122.64
9.75
12.76
31.54
52.06
57.08
113.84
54.71
Steering
Driveline
Heat Exchangers
Wheels
Transmissions
Engines
+ 1.69 Lbs.
- 1.47 Lbs. losses due to mix shift
- 0.08 Lbs. change due to smaller parts
+ 1.43 Lbs.
- 2.37 Lbs. losses due to smaller parts
+ 8.8 Lbs.
Net Change
Vehicle Aluminum Content Trends
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9.41
1.33
2.40
4.21
5.48
1.45
5.93
9.10
11.44
9.02
1.30
1.91
4.06
4.24
4.82
5.52
8.32
9.75
0 25 50 75 100 125
All Other
Body & IP Supports
Bumpers
Heat Shields
Suspensions
Crossmembers & Cradles
Closures
Brakes
Steering
2009 2006
Pounds per Vehicle
+ 0.39 Lbs.
+ 0.03 Lbs.
+ 0.49 Lbs.
+ 0.15 Lbs.
+ 1.24 Lbs.
- 3.37 Lbs. losses due to steel’s gains
+ 0.41 Lbs.
+ 0.82 Lbs.
+ 1.69 Lbs.
Net increase of 8.24
pounds in 2009 over
2006 (primarily from
Engine Blocks)
Source: Ducker Worldwide
Drivers for Weight Reduction
Fuel Economy &
Emissions
Safety Enhancements Performance & Features
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• Vehicle programs are facing aggressive weight targets.
• Common assumptions:
• Incremental weight savings can be achieved by new steel technologies
• Substantial weight savings possible only through extensive aluminum applications
North American Light Vehicle Curb Weight
- History and Forecast -
4,059
3,7163,846
4,0183,920
3,7554,000
4,500
Cu
rb W
eig
ht
Po
un
ds
The decline in curb weight from 2004 to 2009 will be the largest decline in nearly 30 years and contribute at least one MPG to fuel economy improvement
Unibody vehicles are expectedto average 3,471 poundsand full frame vehicleswill average 4,584 poundsin 2009
Vehicle Average Weight Trend
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3,054 3,057
3,532
3,716
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
'76 '82 '86 '96 '99 '02 '04 '06 '09
Select Calendar Years
Cu
rb W
eig
ht
Po
un
ds
Source: Ducker Worldwide
Aluminum Vehicles vs. Comparable Steel Vehicles
Data Source:
Car and Driver Magazine
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Aluminum Vehicles vs. Comparable Steel Vehicles
Data Source:
MSN Autos
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Comparison of Materials
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Cost numbers are estimates only!
Comparison of Materials
So
urc
e: P
rof.
Mik
e A
sb
hy,
Ca
mb
rid
ge
Un
ive
rsity
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So
urc
e: P
rof.
Mik
e A
sb
hy,
Ca
mb
rid
ge
Un
ive
rsity
• There is no “intrinsic stiffness” advantage for Magnesium, Aluminum, or Titanium over Steel
because they all lie on a constant Young’s Modulus to Density line.
• Any advantage with these alternate materials in stiffness critical applications must come
from geometric effects.
Comparison of Materials
Sourc
e: P
rof.
Mik
e A
sbhy,
Cam
bridge U
niv
ers
ity
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Sourc
e: P
rof.
Mik
e A
sbhy,
Cam
bridge U
niv
ers
ity
• Aluminum and Magnesium have an “intrinsic strength” disadvantage compared to High
Strength Steels because they have lower Strength to Density values.
• Any advantage with these alternate materials in strength critical applications must come
from geometric effects.
Tensile Strength Load Case – No Package Freedom
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Aluminum solution is heavier and more expensive than steel solution.
Tensile Strength Load Case – 400% More Package Space
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Aluminum solution is heavier and more expensive than steel solution.
Bending Strength Load Case – No Package Freedom
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Aluminum solution is heavier and more expensive than steel solution.
Bending Strength Load Case – 25% More Package Space
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Aluminum solution is more expensive and requires more package space.
Bending Stiffness Load Case – No Package Freedom
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Aluminum solution is heavier and more expensive than steel solution.
Bending Stiffness Load Case – 30% More Package Space
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Aluminum solution is lighter, but is more expensive and requires more package space.
Bending Stiffness of Flat Sheet
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Aluminum solution is lighter, but is more expensive.
Torsional Stiffness of an Open Tube
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Aluminum solution is lighter, but is more expensive.
Torsional Stiffness of a Closed Tube
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Aluminum solution is heavier and is more expensive!
Durability/Fatigue
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• Since aluminum does not have an endurance limit, they can only be
designed for a specified number of cycles.
• On the other hand, steel solutions can be theoretically designed for infinite
cycles.
Source: US Steel Website
Structural Considerations - Summary
• In general, Aluminum requires more package space
• If package is space available, steel solutions can be redesigned!
• Aluminum designs cannot be simple material substitutions of steel designs
• Aluminum has 50% mass reduction potential for solid beam/plate
bending & open tube torsion
• Solid beam/plate designs are inefficient and are rarely used in auto body
structures (except for outer panels that can’t be reinforced)
• Continuous joining techniques avoid open profile torsion cases
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Source: FKA Report 56690 for World Auto Steel, November 2006.
• Continuous joining techniques avoid open profile torsion cases
• For other cases, Aluminum & steel have similar mass reduction
potential
• Aluminum solutions cost more than comparable steel solutions
BMW 5-series rear bumper
in aluminum (4 kg)
BMW 5-series rear bumper
in steel (3.7 kg)
• Scratch Resistance: Steel’s hardness/in-service strength is higher than that of aluminum, thus provides better performance against stone chips; and also during handling in plants.
• Damping: Due to higher density, steel provides better air borne noise attenuation.
Other Design Considerations
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• Corrosion Performance: – Single Metal Applications:
Aluminum has better corrosion performance.
– Mixed Metal Applications: Steel has a lower galvanic potential than aluminum and magnesium; thus is resistant to galvanic corrosion in mixed metal applications.
• Recyclability: Steel’s magnetic
property and ability to mix
different grades makes it easier to
recycle compared to aluminum.
• Styling: Higher formability of
steel makes it easier to meet
styling requirements
Other Design Considerations
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styling requirements
• Packaging: Because of lower
material stiffness and strength,
aluminum designs usually have
larger dimensions and hence
require more package space
• For similar applications, steel solutions are considerably easier to form than aluminum solutions due to:
– Higher forming limits
– Higher elongations
– Higher r-values
Manufacturing - Formability
0.7
0.8
1.2mm AA5182-O
1.2mm AA6111-T4
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– Positive strain rate hardening
• This has implications for manufacturing robustness, material costs, cycle times, and styling.
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Minor Strain
Majo
r S
train
1.2mm AA6111-T4
1.2mm CR-EDDQ
1.2mm DP600
• Joining:
– Steel is easier to join in mass production environment using well established methods such as RSW and MIG welding.
– Aluminum joining is more complex and often requires combination of mechanical fastening, adhesive bonding, and MIG or TIG welding.
Other Manufacturing Considerations
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TIG welding.
• Assembly:
– Aluminum assembly may require costly isolation systems to prevent galvanic corrosion.
– If aluminum castings are used, expensive machining may be required.
Business Considerations - Cost
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Legend:
• Ford Contour: Steel Unibody Design (BIW: 215 kg)
• Ford P2000: Aluminum Unibody Design (BIW: 152 kg)
• Audi A8 (Size Adjusted): Aluminum space-frame (BIW: 160 kg)
Reference : A. Kelkar, R. Roth, & Joel Clark, “Can Aluminum Be an Economical Alternative to Steel?”, JOM AUGUST 2001
C
Business Considerations – Price Volatility
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600
Steel Price ($/lb)
Alu
min
um
Pri
ce (
$/l
b)
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CCorrelation Coefficient Between
Steel & Aluminum Prices = 0.8
• Relative standard deviation of steel prices (43%) has been higher than that of
aluminum (27%) during 1998 – 2009.
• Aluminum contracts are traded on an exchange – may explain lower volatility?
• However, there is a strong correlation between steel and aluminum prices.
Source: European Aluminium Association
Business Considerations - Supply
Growth rate world total Growth rate western world
Production world total Production western world
World Aluminum Supply
The O’Carrol Aluminum Bulletin reported higher world primary capacity numbers than European Aluminum Association:- 35 million tonnes in 2004- 49 million tonnes in 2009
Per Ducker, secondary aluminum made from scrap amounted to 13 million tonnes in 2009.
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World Steel Supply
Source: Arcelor Mittal
Business Considerations - Supply
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Steel Aluminum
New demand volume relative to world supply is much more “noticeable” in the case of Aluminum.
• Reviewed design, manufacturing, and business considerations that might explain why steel has been a primary choice in auto body structures.
• Any change in future applications would perhaps require new aluminum technologies in areas such:
– new material grades
– material production
Conclusion
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– material production
– forming and joining
– recycling
• On the other hand, more steel application opportunities may be realized with new steel technologies and design innovations.
Unscientific Survey
Scenario A:
Mass produced aluminum intensive vehicles are common place. Steel
is no longer a clear leader in automotive applications.
Scenario N:
Which is a more likely in the future (2015 or later)?
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Scenario N:
Current material composition of automotive structures would largely
be maintained.
Scenario S:
Steel applications increase and alternate material applications would
actually see a reduction in percentage terms.
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Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:Great Designs in Steel is Sponsored by:
ArcelorMittal Dofasco, ArcelorMittal USA, Nucor Corporation,
Severstal North America, Inc. and United States Steel Corporation
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