OVERVIEW OF ISSUESDR AND AMI HELP SOLVE
Dr. Eric Woychik
Executive Consultant, Strategy Integration, LLC
APSC Workshop on DR and AMI
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Overview
Aim: To define the needs and opportunities Demand Response and Automated Metering Infrastructure are best applied to
• Demand Response vs. Energy Efficiency
• Super-peak needs and Summer Heat Waves
• Define the resource types
• Displace Combustion Turbines & Ramping Capacity
• Selected Resources: G + T + D + env. mitigation
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Demand Response (DR) vs. Energy Efficiency (EE)
• DR is generally more available during the peak and super peak periods; provides capacity deferral for select hours• May be automatic, or dispatchable on short notice
• EE is generally provided over a longer duration, to provide energy reduction• Is not generally flexible, but is fixed in its application
• Permanent DR is something in between, providing capacity reductions on a constant basis• Managed, such as to optimize facility demand reduction• May be relatively fixed, such as “ice storage”
• DR over a duration can also help save energy
• DR and EE can be great compliments when integrated
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What is Demand Response?
• Interruptible load (e.g., by industrial customers)
• Dispatchable, direct load control (e.g., AC or irrigation)
• Automatic demand response; smart thermostat or control
• Price response, on-call, manually activated and/or preset
• Thermostat operation (e.g., temperature set-back)
• Permanent demand response; managed with controls
• Manually or automatically triggered load reductions (e.g., lighting controls)
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Super-Peak Needs and Summer Heat Waves
• Electricity peak may be 1 PM until 8 PM, summer months (June and September) – so just 87 days or 610 hours
• Super-peak is likely 2 PM to 8 PM, during the 16 hottest days of the year, about 100 hours or less (about 1%)• Electricity generation capacity is maximum• Transmission and power flows are maximum• Air conditioning (AC) is used to the maximum
• AC loads increase system peak & reduce load factor
• Summer heat waves are a major driver of super-peak• NOAA, NASA, NERC, and IGCC, suggest climate change• Average and peak temperatures appear to be increasing
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Basic Electricity Resource Types
• Purchases -- on the market …at a cost
• Reserves -- available for contingencies and peaks
• Peaking – ramping or load following
• High capacity factor load following (CF LF)
• Intermediate (load factor)
• Baseload – e.g., coal and nuclear
• Transmission (may be ignored in some least cost plans)
• Demand Response (DR) and Energy Efficiency (EE)
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Entergy Arkansas Electricity Peak & Resources
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2,299
3,068
440
715547
1,581 1,124
504800
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Entergy System Strategic Supply Resource Plan, Plan Description, 2006
Intermediate
Peaking
Base
Reserves
Purchases
High CF LF
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Peak Demand, Load Factor, and Retirements
• SWEPCO peak demand (August 16) record 4,910 MW
• Entergy Arkansas peak demand is about 5,600 MW
• Load factor in AR is declining with increased use of AC
• Decision to retire an existing plant • Compare the forward cost of the existing unit with the
forward cost of alternatives – this is oversimplified
• Many older gas and oil-fired units run at low capacity factors to serve the peaking and reserve roles
• Decision to add a new coal plant, is related to older units that will shift roles to serve peaking and reserves
• Add new coal as baseload then use existing old plants?
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Displace Combustion Turbine & Ramping Capacity
• Recent AEP-SWEPCO CT proposal for 332 MW was $102.8 million (for used units at 50% of new).• Each 80 MW CT must operate at 75% of capacity for NOx• Can operate from 52MW to 83MW and 104MW to 332MW
• Ramping capacity is to meet loads rapidly, typically between hours to avoid voltage lags & grid requirements• Baseload and intermediate plants ramp slowly• Peaking units ramp quickly (but many older units are used)• More renewables (must-take power); more ramping needs
• Criteria for peaking/ramping capacity are lowest life-cycle cost, reliable, flexible, and environmentally responsible
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Ramping and Load Following Resources
• System faces large daily load swings that require ramping and load following resources • Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs) are typically
desired for operational flexibility and to limit exposure to high purchase power prices
• Replace current 35+ year old conventional gas plants?
• Utilities need resources in transmission critical regions• Reduce production costs at minimum run levels• Where Reliability Must Run (RMR) units are needed • For ramping and load following
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Selected Resources: G + T + D + env. mitigation
• DR and AMI can reduce or fully defer the capital and operating costs for system expansion:• Generation• Transmission• Distribution• Environmental mitigation
• Transmission deferral – Rocky Mountain Power & NEISO
• Distribution deferral – Commonwealth Edison & PG&E
• Environmental mitigation – preferred loading order (CA)
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Basic Ways DR/AMI Resolves System Needs
• Reduce overall system loads -- the EE effect
• Reduce system peak and locational loads – the DR effect
• Reduce existing and new generation needs
• Reduce existing and new transmission needs
• Reduce existing and new distribution costs…
• Reduce environmental mitigation costs
• DR/AMI can be installed when supply-side are more difficult
• AMI provides automated meter reading, remote connect/disconnect, communications to the home, and may enable building automation
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