MalatyaApricotCropSurvey-2016Crop TheBloom-FrostFollowingarecordbreakingwarmJanuaryandFebruarythebloomstarted2weeksearlyinthefirstweekofMarch.Severalfrostsduringtheweekcommencing14Marchhavedonesignificantdamage,afurtherfrostattheendofAprilhasdamagedthelatebloomsinorchardsabove1400meters.ThecrophasclearlybeenreducedduetofrostinEVERYmajorgrowingarea.Therewasnotasingleregionorevenvillagethatwasunaffected,theamountofdamagevariedfromorchardtoorchardratherthanfromregiontoregion.Thedamagewasworstinvalleysandotherfrostpockets.Insomeorchards,thebottomhalfofthetreeswereemptyandthetopbrancheswerenearnormal.IngeneraltheKabaAsiwerelessdamagedthantheHaciHalilvariety.InmanyorchardstheHaciHalilwerebarebuttheKabaAsiwereat30%to60%offullyield.Alltheaboveisconsistentwithamoderateratherthanahardfreeze.Thereisstillsomesheddingoffrostdamagedfruitletsandthismayyetreducetheoverallcroppotentialunlessitstopssoon.PostFrostFruitDevelopmentThefruitiswelladvanced,mostaboutthesizeofagolfball.Theweatherpostfrosthasbeenidealforquality,coolanddry,thereisvirtuallynospecklingorhaildamagesofar,thefruitlookssuperbatthisstage.

CLEANLARGEFRUITAT50%YIELD

Giventhatapproximately85%ofthefruitwillcomefromorchardswitha10%to70%yield,sizingisexpectedtobelargeagain,mostlysize1through4andpricedifferentialsarelikelytoremainsmall.TightOrganicSupplyThelargeorganicgrowingvalleyfromAkacadagthroughtoDogansehirisoneofthelightestyieldingareas,andassuchwethinktherewillbeadisproportionatelyloworganicproductionthisyear,andpremiumsfororganicarelikelytobehigh.ProjectionsWithsuchamixedbag,wehaveusedanumberofmethodstocomeupwithourestimatefigure.Wehavemadecomparisonstolastyear,theyearbefore(actuallythelast30years).Thebelowchartshowswhatwebelievetheaverageyieldsareinalltheorchardswevisited,whichwerethelengthandbreadthofthegrowingregion.Severalhundredorchardswerevisited,manyglassesofteaweredrunkandopinionsoffarmers,tradersandexportersweretakenintoaccount.Ourassumptionsarebasedonamaximumbutneverachievedtheoreticalcroppotentialof240,000tons(Iknowit’samuchdebatedfigure,butitsnotthesolesourceofourestimate).Webelievethatthetreesareonaveragecurrentlycarryinganamountoffruitequalto44%oftheirmaximumpotential,andassuchthetotalcropwillbeintheregionof105,000tons.

Minimum Maximum Average2016EstCrop(tons)

93,360 115,200 104,280

Yield 39% 48% 43%

%oftotaltreesinMalatya

MinimumMaximum Average

10% 0% 10% - 2,400 1,20010% 11% 20% 2,640 4,800 3,72010% 21% 30% 5,040 7,200 6,12015% 31% 40% 11,160 14,400 12,78015% 41% 50% 14,760 18,000 16,38015% 51% 60% 18,360 21,600 19,98010% 61% 70% 14,640 16,800 15,72010% 71% 80% 17,040 19,200 18,1205% 81% 90% 9,720 10,800 10,2600% 91% 100% - - -

Total 93,360 115,200 104,280

Trees'yieldrange

TotalSupplyAndPriceExpectation

ExportsforAprilwereatthetopendofexpectationsat5,860tons,a17%increaseonlastyears5,007tons.Yeartodateexportsare64,354tons,a54%increasecomparedtolastyears41,831tonsforthesameperiod.Weexpecttoendtheyearwith75,000tonsexportsand5,000tonsdomesticconsumptionleavingacarryoveroflessthan5,000tonsofexportablefruit.Wedonotexpectadramaticchangeinpricesinthetransitiontonewcropaspricesalreadycorrected,andaresignificantlylowerthanthebeginningoftheseason.Commentsandenquiriesarewelcomeasalways.

ALONEFRUIT,THISHACIHALILTREESHOWSLESSTHAN10%YIELDAgrimaxLtd www.agrimax.com

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PRICEPERTONTHOUSANDTONSTotalCrop&Carryover andAveargePrices

TotalAvailableEst(Crop+Carryover) Average Price(WholeApricots)