Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 1
Tuesday, September 25th….
Announcements
• Homework 3 due on Thursday - again this should be handed
in as a physical hard copy…
• I will be posting suggested topics for the first paper soon.
The first (3-4 page) paper will be due on Thursday October
11th.
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 2
What’s in the news…… Two recent New York Times editorials
The first highlights high level diplomatic discussions this week, first at the
U.N. General Assembly in NYC and then separately in Washington on
climate change and limiting greenhouse gas emissions…
Discussion questions…
• Do you think governments need to agree on mandatory reductions, or is a nation
by nation “voluntary” framework sufficient?
• Should the Bush administration allow states to proceed with their own rules on
greenhouse gas emissions, or will this cause too much chaos?
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 3
The second editorial focuses on the drawbacks of corn based ethanol as an alternative fuel in
the context of the energy bill now before Congress.
Discussion questions…..
• What questions do we need to be asking about corn based ethanol as an alternative fuel?
• What are the alternatives to this alternative?
• What are the political forces pushing for corn based ethanol?
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 4
We’re talking about fossil fuels - oil, natural gas & coal - and also tar sands
& shale oil. We’re going to go through each of these in turn and talk about
such things as …..
• Where are they found & in what quantities?
• How do we make use of them?
• What are their future prospects?
Start with oil. We’ve learned that oil formed under ancient sea
beds from the geologically compressed & heated remains of
marine organisms… Where do we find it today?
Chapter 12
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 5
First, some history - ASTM, the international standards organization has
compiled a historical timeline of the use of petroleum. Some of the early
entries provide an interesting historical perspective….
http://www.astm.org/COMMIT/D02/to1899_index.html
ca. 4000 BC On the banks of the Euphrates River in an area that
will become known as Iraq, archeological exploration finds the siteof an oil seep known locally as “the fountains of pitch,” whereasphalt is quarried for use as mortar between building stones.Asphalt is also used as a waterproofing agent for baths, potteryand boats. The term ”petroleum” comes from “petros” (Greek forstone or rock) and “oleum” (Latin for oil). An ancient term forpetroleum is “rock oil.”
347 AD Oil wells are drilled in China
up to 800 feet [240 m] deep usingbits attached to bamboo poles.
The oil was burned to heat brine, evaporating
the water & leaving behind salt.
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 6
In the United States….
1859 Edwin L. Drake opens the firstcommercially successful oil well in the UnitedStates drilled for the sole purpose of findingoil. The Drake Well is a 70-foot well located onthe edge of the town of Titusville, Pa. Oil isshipped in 42-gallon barrels. The 42-gallonbarrel was established in 1482 by King EdwardIV as the standard for the packing of fish. Thedrilling of the Drake Well begins aninternational search for petroleum.
Edwin Drake
At the time, the main use of crude oil was for kerosene,
which to modern chemists is a mixture of various types
of carbon chains containing 12-15 carbon atoms each.
The distillation of Kerosene from crude oil was developed in Poland in 1856
(previously it had been made from asphalt, another fossil fuel), although such
processes were also known in 9th century Iraq.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerosene
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 7
The widespread availability of cheaper kerosene
was the principal factor in the precipitous decline
in the whaling industry in the mid- to late 19th
century, as the leading product of whaling was oil
for lamps. (wikipedia)
Kerosene for lighting was similarly phased out by
electrification, and oil was in danger of being without a
market. But around this time came the automobile…..
and oil production became quite an important matter.
1919 Ford model T
California oil field, 1938
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 8
Early U.S. oil production
・1859: 2,000ハbarrels・1869: 4,215,000ハbarrels・1879: 19,914,146ハbarrels
・1889: 35,163,513ハbarrels・1899: 57,084,428ハbarrels・1906: 126,493,936ハbarrels
U.S. oil production steadily rose. Small oil
deposits of Pennsylvania were quickly superceded
by much larger finds in Texas, Oklahoma and
California.
Ultimately, U.S. oil production peaked
at slightly under 10 million barrels per
day in 1970 (as predicted by Hubbert in
the 1950’s).
U.S. oil production has now declined to
roughly 1/2 of its peak value. In the
meantime, demand for oil in the U.S. has
continued to increase… Since 1948 the U.S.
has imported more than 1/2 its petroleum
supplies. Today we import about 60% of the
petroleum we use, about 12.2 million bbl/day.
Where does all this oil come from?
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 9
Challenge questions….
• Can you name the top 5 oil producing nations?
• How about the top 10?
• Can you name the top 5 & 10 oil consuming nations?
• What are the top 5 importers of oil?
• What about the top 5 exporters of oil?
This gets you thinking about what you know about the world….
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 10Source: CIA world factbook 2006
Countries ranked by
oil production
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 11
Countries ranked by
oil consumption
U.S. consumption is
25% of the world
total
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 12
Production & consumption
together with export &
import
Where do U.S. oil
imports come from?
Can you name the top
5 countries?
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 13
U.S. oil imports come from….
We don’t hear about it so much, but the U.S. actually imports more oil from Canada and
Mexico, than from Saudi Arabia. Also, although the U.S. has a lot of conflict with the
government of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, we’re still getting a good deal of our oil imports
from that country…
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 14
The picture for the future depends on oil reserves….
Graphs from Energy Information Administration, figures in billions of barrels
“Oil and Gas Journal” and “World Oil” are two publication services that keep track
of global oil reserves. As we’ve noted before, there are different standards for
counting reserves. Hence, the disagreements in some of the regions. Both place
over 1/2 the world’s proven reserves in the Middle East.
Recall that the world uses about 100 million bbl/day, or 36.5 billion bbl/year. If it was
straightforward to extract all the oil from a region, these figures for the Middle East
would represent 20 years of world energy usage.
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 15
Saudi Arabia has stated reserves of 260 billion
barrels of oil (source: Oil and Gas Journal via EIA)
and produced about 10.7 million barrels per day in
2006.
Saudi Aramco (the national oil company) has
announced plans to increase capacity to 12.5 million
barrels/day by 2009 and 15 million barrels/day by
2020. Such production increases are necessary for
global oil production to keep pace with increasing
demand.
But…. There is heated debate about
whether this can be done.
Aramco officials state that Saudi reserves have
been substantially understated and that ultimately
another 200 billion barrels will be added to their
reserve numbers. They claim that once the
infrastructure is in place, that the kingdom can
maintain production at 15 million bbl/day for 50
years.
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Saudi_Arabia/Oil.html)
Let’s focus on the world’s largest oil producer….
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 16
This discussion gets very detailed….
Saudi Arabia’s largest oil field (the world’s
largest as well) is called Ghawar, covering 1260
sq. miles. It holds about 25% of Saudi reserves
and accounts for 50% of its daily production.
Ghawar is one of only 4 oil fields in the world
producing more than 1 million bbl/day. The others
are in Mexico, Kuwait and China and are all closer to
1 million bbl/day than to Ghawar’s 5 million bbl/day.
Ghawar accounts for about 5.5% of global daily
production.
The Ghawar field is old, brought online in 1951. It
has produced 55 billion bbl to date, with 70 billion
bbl estimated to be still in the ground (this figure
is itself quite uncertain). It appears that Ghawar is
somewhere neat the halfway point of oil
extraction, which raises the possibility of a steep
decline. Clearly, Saudi Arabia would be hard
pressed to compensate for such a decline….
See - “Trouble in the World's Largest Oil Field-
Ghawar” by G.R. Morton,
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/ghawar.htm
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 17
Some oil analysts see signs of trouble for Ghawar’s rate of production…..
It has long been Saudi Aramco’s practice to inject sea water
into the Ghawar in order to maintain pressure in the field.
Consequently, a good deal of water gets pumped back out
along with the oil .
The fraction of water coming out of the pumps is known as the
water “cut”. Aramco does not release detailed figures on the
oil “cut” in particular fields, but analysts glean information
from the comments of various current, or former, Aramco
officials.
Current estimates are that roughly 7 million bbl/day of sea
water are pumped into Ghawar to extract roughly 5 million
bbl/day of oil, with the oil cut at the well head in the range
of 30-50%.
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 18
Where can the world look for new oil supplies?
One region that is often discussed…..
Caspian Sea region ….. Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and
parts of Russia & Iran.
The EIA states, “the Caspian Sea region,
including the Sea and the states surrounding it, is
important to world energy markets because of its
potential to become a major oil and natural gas
exporter over the next decade.”
“Estimates of the Caspian Sea region's proved crude oil reserves vary
widely by source. For this reason, EIA estimates proven oil reserves in
the region range between 17 and 49 billion barrels, which is comparable
to OPEC members Qatar on the low end, and Libya on the high end. In
2006, regional oil production is expected to total 2.3 million bbl/d,
comparable to annual production from South America's second largest
oil producer, Brazil. During 2007, EIA expects over 200,000 bbl/d of
annual production growth, comprised mostly of growth from Azerbaijan.
By 2010, EIA expects the countries of the Caspian Sea Region to
produce between 2.9 and 3.8 million bbl/d, which would exceed annual
production from South America's largest oil producer, Venezuela. “
(Source: EIA)
Major production
region, but not
another Middle
East.
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 19
Caspian Sea issues…The area is land locked. Oil (& natural gas) must be
transported via pipeline to shipping ports. (Oil is physical stuff
and it is nontrivial to move it around…)
EIA comments, “A lack of
export routes kept large-
scale development of oil and
gas resources to a minimum
during the 1990s and early
2000s. Now, with the Baku-
T’bilisi Ceyhan (BTC)
pipeline online, the Caspian
Sea’s oil resources will
reach world markets and will
avoid the crowded
Bosporus choke point.”
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 20
While we’re talking about the physical
movement of oil….
According to EIA, 2/3 of the world’s oil trade
moves by tanker around the globe. There are a
number of high traffic “choke points” for oil
shipping, which might be temporarilly blocked
either intentionally or through shipping
accidents.
The Bosporus straight is 30km long and only 700
meters wide (at its narrowest), making it the
world’s narrowest straight used for international
navigation. It connects the Black Sea with the Sea
of Marmara and then via the Dardenelles straight to
the Aegean and Mediterranian seas.
Most of Russian oil exports leave via the Black Sea.
In total, about 3.1 Million bbl/day pass through the
Bosporus. The Turkish government is very
concerned about oil spills due to overcrowding of the
straights.
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 21
More Caspian issues…. The environment…The Caspian sea
is actually a salt water lake. Water
flows in, but not out.
“With oil and gas production and marine transport expected to increase in coming
years, the risk of oil spills and other leakages will increase. The Caspian is also a
closed sea, meaning that pollution can remain in the area for decades. Petrochemical
and refining complexes on the Absheron peninsula in Azerbaijan are major sources of
land-based pollution, and discharges and spills from oil and natural gas drilling--both
onshore and in the sea itself--have had serious impacts on the environment. Untreated
waste from the Volga River, which half the population of Russia and most of its heavy
industry drains its sewage, empties directly into the Caspian Sea, while pesticides and
chemicals from agricultural run-off are threats to the Sea's flora and fauna. Overfishing,
especially of the prized sturgeon, has caused a dramatic decline in fish stocks.
Ecologists have directly related the death of seals, fish, and birds in the sea and the
disappearance of unique plants to oil company activities.” (EIA)
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 22
Also regional conflicts…. threaten safety of pipeline routes
Corruption plagues many of the local regimes in the region. How much the
(often impoverished) people of the area will profit from their nation’s oil and
natural gas wealth remains to be seen….
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 23
We are not alone in looking outside our borders for oil.
There is the whole list of oil importing nations, including in
particular…..
Fueling the dragon: China's race into the oil market
http://www.iags.org/china.htm
• China’s oil consumption is growing at 7.5% per year,
7 times faster than the U.S.
• The number of automobiles is growing at 19% per year
• China currently imports 32% of its oil and has
relatively small domestic oil reserves
• 58% of China’s oil imports today come from the
Middle East, projected to rise to 70% by 2015
Info from…
Obviously, there will be geopolitical conflict
over remaining oil reserves in the coming
decades….
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 24
One take on the issue…(from Fueling the dragon: China's race into the oil market)
Implications for U.S.-China relations U.S.-China
relations are influenced by a wide array of issuesfrom Taiwan to trade relations and human rights. Butundoubtedly access to Middle East oil will become akey issue in the relations between the two powers.Clearly, in the short term, China recognizes that itsenergy security is increasingly dependent oncooperation with the U.S., rather than competitionwith it. China would like to maintain good relationswith the U.S. and enjoy the economic benefitsderived from such cooperation. But this inclinationis balanced by the feeling among many Chineseleaders that the U.S. seeks to dominate thePersian Gulf in order to exercise control over itsenergy resources and that it tries to containChina's aspirations in the region. The U.S. istherefore considered a major threat to China'slong-term energy security.
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 25
Michael Klare,
Five College Professor of Peace and
World Security Studies based at
Hampshire College.
The geopolitics of oil and the possible military consequences are
the subject an entire course (taught by someone else!). Someone
like Michael Klare, Five College Professor of Peace and World
Security Studies, whose most recent books is “Blood and Oil, the
Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on
Imported Oil.”
Klare summarizes the implications of the issues we’ve been
discussing, “Demand is rising around the world; supplies are
not growing fast enough to satisfy global requirements; and
the global struggle to gain control over whatever supplies
are available has become more intense and fractious.
Because the first and second of these factors are not likely
to abate in the years ahead, the third can only grow more
pronounced.” The Intensifying Global Struggle for Energy
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/print/2400/Tomgram%253A%2520%2520Mike
%2520Klare%2520on%2520Our%2520Energy-Stretched%2520Planet
Klare points to the fact that access to energy supplies is now regarded
as a critical issue of national security by nations around the globe.
He also points to many friction points around the globe that
are beneath the radar screen for most of us….
Physics 190E: Energy & Society
Fall 2007
Lecture 7 - 26
On the other hand…
China has its own organizations working toward a sustainable energy solution.
The China Sustainable
Energy Program states the
problem facing their society
as…..
The David and Lucile Packard Foundation
The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
Funded by
http://www.efchina.org/FHome.do
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