Analysis of the Practicability of External Emergency Planning in Germany
based on Experiences from the Fukushima Accident
F. Gering, B. Gerich, E. Wirth und G. Kirchner BfS – Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Germany
Are we well prepared for „Fukushima-like“ releases in Germany ?
Off-site emergency planning in Germany
<100 km:Intake of stable iodinefor children andpregnant women
<25 km:Intake of stable iodinefor adults < 45 years
<10 km: Evacuation,Sheltering
Off-site emergency planning in Germany (2)
Example for evacuation planning
at NPP Biblis
Study of BfS (ongoing)
Assessment of radiological consequences for several long-lasting (up to 30d), severe releases (all INES 7)with the RODOS system
NPP Unterweser and NPP Philippsburg
Based on real weather data from 2010
RODOS simulations up to 150 km
Estimated doses were compared against German dose reference levels
KKU, Fukushima, June KKU, const. emiss., Dec.
Results: Eff. Dose (adults), external exposure and inhalation
Day 4 Day 6 Day 8
Eff. Dose (adults), external exposure and inhalation
Sheltering
Summary of radiological consequences with respect to sheltering
Scenario Month Areas where reference levels exceeded Maximum
distance (km) Size (km2) # of affected
sectors NPP Unterweser
Fukushima June 2010 ≈ 75 ≈ 560 11 constant emission June 2010 ≈ 45 ≈ 740 12 Fukushima Dec 2010 ≈ 60 ≈ 1200 12 constant emission Dec 2010 ≈ 95 ≈ 2400 12
NPP Philippsburg Fukushima Oct 2010 ≈ 50 ≈ 490 9 constant emission Oct 2010 ≈ 42 ≈ 1040 12 Fukushima Dec 2010 ≈ 60 ≈ 1280 12 constant emission Dec 2010 ≈ 85 ≈ 2250 12
not foreseen in emergency planning
Intake of stable iodine (children, pregnant women)
Cities affected:- Wilhelmshaven - Bremerhaven - Bremen (partially)- Oldenburg (partially)approx. 175 000 children
Thyroid dose for infants from inhalation of radioiodine
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 6 11 16 21 26
Days after begin of release
Th
yro
id d
ose
per
day
(m
Sv)
Reference level
200 km
Conclusions (1)
The size of areas, where reference levels for protective actions „sheltering“, „evacuation“ and „iodine prophylaxis“ are exceeded, by far exceeds the emergency planning for many of the accident scenarios considered in this study.
Current plans for implementing protective actions in the sector (from the EPZ), which is directly hit by the contaminated plume, and in the neighbouring sectors does not fully account for long lasting releases where often all sectors around the NPP are affected to similar extent.
In case of long lasting severe releases the critical situation can occur, that reference levels for protective actions are not exceeded in any 7-day-interval (for which some of the reference levels are currently defined in Germany), but the total dose over the release period by far
exceeds the reference level.
Conclusions (2)
In case of long lasting severe releases an one-time intake of stable iodine often is not sufficient for protecting the population against large thyroid doses. Multiple intake of stable iodine tablets is currently not sufficiently considered in emergency planning. (Intake of stable iodine at different times for different areas?)
In case of long lasting severe releases the protective action “sheltering” imposes additional problems (e.g. the danger of being forced to order late evacuation even during passage of the plume, lifting of sheltering in one area while ordering in an another area), which may endanger the applicability of the action in general.
Concepts for lifting of countermeasures have to account for scenarios with long lasting releases.
Outlook
Consequences of long lasting releases on emergency planning might be discussed in an European research project possibly starting this year.
We are very much interested to learn about similar considerations in other countries !
Contact: [email protected]
Appendix
Dose reference levels in GermanyProtective action Dose reference level Comment Sheltering 10 mSv effective dose External exposure over 7
days and internal exposure from inhalation over 7 days
Iodine prophylaxis 50 mSv thyroid dose (children up to 18 years and pregnant women); 250 mSv thyroid dose (adults between 18 and 45 years)
Exposure from inhalation of radioiodine over 7 days
Evacuation 100 mSv effective dose External exposure over 7 days and internal exposure from inhalation over 7 days
Temporary relocation 30 mSv effective dose External exposure over 30 days from radionuclides deposited to the ground
Permanent relocation 100 mSv effective dose External exposure over 1 year from radionuclides deposited to the ground
Evakuierung
nicht in Notfallplanung vorgesehen
Szenario Abbildung Gebiet mit Überschreitung des Richtwerts
Maximal-Entfernung
(km)
Fläche (km2) AnzahlbetroffenerSektoren
KKW Unterweser
Fukushima, Juni 2010 4.1a ≈ 20 ≈ 24 1
FKA-30d, Juni 2010 4.1b ≈ 7 ≈ 20 4
FKA-15d, Juni 2010 4.1c ≈ 7 ≈ 32 4
konst. QT, Juni 2010 4.1d ≈ 5 ≈ 20 1
Fukushima, Dez 2010 4.3a ≈ 6 ≈ 24 5
FKA-30d, Dez 2010 4.3b ≈ 8 ≈ 24 2
FKA-15d, Dez 2010 4.3c ≈ 9 ≈ 28 3
konst. QT, Dez 2010 4.3d ≈ 8 ≈ 44 7
KKW Philippsburg
Fukushima, Okt. 2010 5.1a ≈ 12 ≈ 28 2
FKA-30d, Okt. 2010 5.1b ≈ 9 ≈ 28 7
FKA-15d, Okt. 2010 5.1c ≈ 16 ≈ 92 8
konst. QT, Okt. 2010 5.1d ≈ 5 ≈ 44 10
Fukushima, Dez. 2010 5.3a ≈ 10 ≈ 36 4
FKA-30d, Dez. 2010 5.3b ≈ 25 ≈ 160 6
FKA-15d, Dez. 2010 5.3c ≈ 20 ≈ 96 5
konst. QT, Dez. 2010 5.3d ≈ 24 ≈ 150 6
Einnahme von Iodtabletten
nicht in Notfallplanung vorgesehen
Szenario Abbildung Gebiet mit Überschreitung des Richtwerts
Maximal-Entfernung
(km)
Fläche (km2) AnzahlbetroffenerSektoren
KKW Unterweser
Fukushima, Juni 2010 4.2a > 180 ≈ 4000 12
FKA-30d, Juni 2010 4.2b ≈ 125 ≈ 3400 12
FKA-15d, Juni 2010 4.2c ≈ 180 ≈ 6000 12
konst. QT, Juni 2010 4.2d ≈ 75 ≈ 3800 12
Fukushima, Dez 2010 4.4a > 150 ≈ 7400 12
FKA-30d, Dez 2010 4.4b > 160 ≈ 8800 12
FKA-15d, Dez 2010 4.4c ≈ 120 ≈ 7000 12
konst. QT, Dez 2010 4.4d ≈ 140 ≈ 12100 12
KKW Philippsburg
Fukushima, Okt. 2010 5.2a ≈ 140 ≈ 4000 10
FKA-30d, Okt. 2010 5.2b > 160 ≈ 6500 12
FKA-15d, Okt. 2010 5.2c > 160 ≈ 10700 11
konst. QT, Okt. 2010 5.2d ≈ 98 ≈ 5700 12
Fukushima, Dez. 2010 5.4a ≈ 155 ≈ 4800 12
FKA-30d, Dez. 2010 5.4b ≈ 190 ≈ 8000 12
FKA-15d, Dez. 2010 5.4c ≈ 120 ≈ 5800 12
konst. QT, Dez. 2010 5.4d ≈ 185 ≈ 7700 12
Umsiedlung
50 mSv (200 km2)
20 mSv (1200 km2)
100 mSv (56 km2)
Eff. Dosis (Erw.) durch Bodenstrahlung über 1 Jahr
Eff. Dosis durch externe Strahlung und Inhalation
KKP, FKA-15d, Okt. KKP, FKA-30d, Dez.
KKP, FKA-15d, Okt. KKP, FKA-30d, Dez.
Schilddrüsendosis für Kleinkinder durch Inhalation
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