Analysis of Residence Sales Data by FormZIP Code 78704
Paul Schumann
Data Variables (2015)
● Form (Condo, Single Family, Duplex, Townhouse)
● Address● MLS#● Price● Square Feet● Price per Square Foot● Year Built
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 3
Summary● Data provided by Ed Wendler Jr.
● Analysis by Paul Schumann using:
– Watson Analytics*
– Open Calc
● Price is a function of year built.
● Average price for condos, duplexes and townhouses are almost the same, and lower than single family.
– However, averages are misleading.
– Price is a function of year built, but also a function of size of the residence.
● Price is exponentially related to size of residence for all forms, with a lower limit of ~$200K.
* www.ibm.com/analytics/watson-analytics/us-en/
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 4
Summary (continued)● Price is increasing for all forms built after 1960.
● Size of residence is increasing with year built and there is little differentiation in size by form for modern construction.
● Price per square foot is also and function of time built, form and size of residence.
● Average price per square foot is essentially the same for condos, duplexes and townhouses and higher for single family residences.
– However, averages are misleading because of the dependence on size of residence.
● For residences priced lower than $400K:
– Price and price per square foot are strongly related to year built and size of residence.
– Condos built in the 1960s and 1970s are now selling for less (and less per square foot) than townhouses and duplexes, modern condos, duplexes and townhouses are all selling for nearly the same price and price per square foot.
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 5
Conclusions
● Given the existing market conditions in 78704 together with contextual factors such as transportation and prevailing construction costs, standards and technology, affordability cannot be practically achieved through density increases using newly constructed condos, duplexes and townhouses (without financial incentives).
Size (square feet)
Price* Income Required**
Percent of Median Income***
1,000 $350,000 $108,000 169%
857 $300,000 $92,000 144%
714 $250,000 $77,000 120%
571 $200,000 $61,000 95%
429 $150,000 $46,000 72%
* Based on average price per square foot currently ($350) for residences less than $400,000** Calculator.net, using approximately payments equal to 30% of income, 2.4% IR, 30 year, 10% down payment, no other debt*** Using median income of $64,000
Reference: http://www.calculator.net/house-affordability-calculator.html
Note: Price per square foot is probably not a constant over this range of sizes. It will probably increase for smaller sizes.
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 6
Conclusions (continued)
● Price per square foot is a function of year built (age), form (single family, condo,duplex, townhouse), and size (square feet)
● Price is a function of price per square foot, size (square feet) and year built (age).
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 7
Recommendations● Perform this type of analysis on enough ZIP codes in Austin to satisfy
statistical significance
● Investigate and recommend financial incentive programs
– Developer
– Residence owner
– Residence buyer
● Investigate and recommend actions to utilize existing residences that have aged
● Investigate and recommend new construction practices, standards and technologies to lower cost per square foot
– Manufactured
– Modular
– Kit
– Volunteered construction
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 8
Recommendations (continued)
● Investigate and recommend polices and standards for mini homes (tiny, micro, small) and mini home villages(with and without shared services).
● Develop analytic relationships between variables, and multi dimensional displays of data.
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 9
Price Analysis (1882 - 2015)
Note: All the graphs appearing in this form came from Watson Analytics. I had to darken the background to make the numbers visible.
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 10
Price (1882 - 2015)
<$200K$200K- $400K
$400K-$600K$600K-$800K
$800K-$1M$1M-$1.2M
$1.2M-$1.4M$1.4M-$1.6M
$1.6M-$1.8M$1.8M-$2M
$2M-$2.2M$2.2M-$2.4M
$2.4M-$2.6M$2.6M-$2.8M
$2.8M-$3M>$3M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
78704
SF
Townhouse
Duplex
Condo
Price
Nu
mb
er
of H
ou
se
s
1,740
1,727
2,325
1,054
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 11
Condo Price (1960 - 2015)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Condo
Price
Linear (Price)
Price Predict
Price Cal
Year Built
Pri
ce
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 12
Duplex Price (1960 - 2015)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
Duplex
Price
Price Cal
Linear (Price Cal)
Price Predict
Year
Pri
ce
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 13
All Forms (< $2M)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 50000
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000f(x) = 216954.09 exp( 0 x )
78704
Square Feet
Pri
ce
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 14
Price and Square Feet by Form
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 15
All Forms (<= $400K)
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
78704
Condo
SF
Duplex
Townhouse
Square Feet
Pri
ce
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 16
Price per Square Foot (1882 - 2015)
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 17
Price per Square Foot (1882 - 2015)
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,6000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
78704
SF
Townhouse
Condo
Duplex
Price per Sq Ft
Nu
mb
er
of H
ou
se
s
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 18
All Forms (1882 - 2015)
Form Price (average) Price/Sq Ft (average)
Condo $369K $350
Duplex $561K $324
SF $1,045K $466
Townhouse $549K $318
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 19
Condo (1960 - 2015)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600Condo
$/Ft.
Linear ($/Ft.)
$/Ft Predict
$/Ft Cal
Year
Pri
ce p
er
Sq
. Ft.
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 20
Duplex (1960-2015)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Duplex
Sq. Ft.
Linear (Sq. Ft.)
$/Ft Cal
$/Ft Predict
Year
Pri
ce p
er
Sq
Ft
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 21
Low Price (<$400K) and Year Built by Form
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 22
Low Price Square Feet and Year Built by Form
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 23
Low Price per Square Foot and Square Feet by Year Built
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 24
Low Price per Square Foot vs. Square Feet
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
78704
Low Priced
$/Ft.
Linear ($/Ft.)
Square Feet
Pri
ce p
er
Sq
ua
re F
oo
t
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 25
Low Price per Square Feet and Square Feet by Form
400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 18000
100
200
300
400
500
600
78704
Low Priced
Condo
Duplex
SF
Townhouse
Square Feet
Pri
ce p
er
Sq
ua
re F
oo
t
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 26
Low Price Square Feet by Decade Built
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
78704
Low Priced
Decade
Sq
ua
re F
ee
t (A
vg)
April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 27
Low Price Price per Square Foot by Decade Built
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
100
200
300
400
500
600
78704
Low Priced
Decade
Pri
ce p
er
Sq
ua
re F
oo
t (A
vg)
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