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Analysis Dossier 2
EUKN Knowledge Dossiers
EUKN Secretariat
The Hague, June 2010
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EUKN
Laan van N.O. Indi 300
2593 CE The Hague
The Netherlands
Phone +31 70 344 09 66
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email [email protected]
www.eukn.org
EUKN, 2010
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1 Introduction1.1 EUKN Knowledge Dossiers
EUKN is one of the major European knowledge dissemination networks
for urban professionals. The key objective of EUKN is to enhance the
exchange of knowledge and expertise on urban development throughout
Europe, bridging urban policy, research and practice. EUKN aims to
support urban (local) professionals in their effort to strengthen the
socio-economic position of cities. As a knowledge network, EUKN is
characterised by a demand-driven approach, based on the needs of
urban practitioners and policymakers. Over the past five years, the
network has built an extensive, high-quality knowledge database, basedon shared standards and protocols. This extensive e-library provides
free access to case studies, research results, policy documents, context
issues, network descriptions, updated news and meetings. These
documents can be easily accessed through EUKNs European portal
website: www.eukn.org.
Currently, EUKN is entering a new phase. One of the main objectives of
this new phase is to strengthen EUKN as a learning platform. EUKN as
an urban learning platform enables urban professionals and
practitioners to access valuable knowledge on a wide range of urban
issues and actively engage with other urban professionals. Through an
interactive approach EUKN contributes to capacity building andenhances the effectiveness of urban policy initiatives. The development
of topical knowledge dossiers forms part of this process.
This document is structured as follows:
The first part of the dossier is an in-depth analysis of the scope ofthe topic and the trends and developments in different EU member
states. This analysis addresses the main challenges related to
demographic change and its impact on the urban structure. It
additionally presents a number of interesting case studies, focussing
on these challenges.
The second section of the dossier lists a number of key research,policy and practice documents. Detailed descriptions of these
documents can be found in the EUKN e-library: www.eukn.org.
The third part of the document consist of interviews with key stakeholders in the field, frequently asked questions and an overview of
relevant organisations active in the field of integration.
The fourth section of the dossier gives an overview of relevantstatistics.
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In the annex, more background knowledge is provided ondemographic change policies in Czech Republic, Denmark and the
Netherlands.
This knowledge dossier is a growing document, which will be adapted on
the basis of input provided through the EUKN website. Urban
professionals are able to leave comments on a dedicated blog and or
contact the Secretariat to discuss certain aspects of the dossier.
Furthermore, round table sessions are organised around the theme of
this dossier, stimulating interactive knowledge exchange in relation to
implementation challenges.
1.2
Demographic challengesDemographic change has been an important topic in the past decade
and current developments such as the economic crisis and the pension
crisis have made the topic even more urgent and relevant on the
European agenda. Demographic change is a term that encompasses
several developments. These developments include among others
ageing and population decline, as well as regional and international
migration.These trends interact in different ways. A population decline
contributes for example to ageing, whereas population change in core
cities is influenced by suburbanisation. These and other demographic
trends are determined by low fertility rates, high European life
expectancy, increased mobility and migration.
The impact of an ageing population and mass migration are felt
throughout Europes society. Simultaneously, growing big cities and
population decline (shrinking cities) will have enormous physical, social
and economic implications for European urban structures. With
population decline, for instance, the need for public facilities (i.e.
schools, libraries, shops, sport clubs, roads, hospitals) and the housing
need are falling. However, European countries are affected in different
ways and deal differently with the challenges it poses. In other words,
the impact of demographic change will differ from region to region.
The demographic composition of European regions
The Randstad region in the Netherlands, the Barcelona region in Spain
or the economically strong regions in western Germany, are regions
that may continue to grow. More generally, Spains population is
forecasted to increase by 6 million and the French population will rise to
almost 72 million by 2060, due to its effective family policies and
support of working women.
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Other regions continue to shrink, such as the northern part of the UK
(e.g. Liverpool), where new figures indicate that this city is expected to
shrink by 2%, while the total UK population will rise by around 11% by
2017. Another region that has to deal with shrinking for several years
already, is the eastern part of Germany (e.g. Leipzig, Halle). The figures
for Leipzig over the last 90 years are presented subsequently:
The populations of Romania and Bulgaria, parts of Poland, and the non-
EU countries further to the east will alsocontinue to shrink, mostly due
to decreasing birth rates or migration to western Europe1. At the same
time populations in the EU are ageing, albeit at different paces and with
huge regional differences. This is for example the case in Ireland,
Sweden, Bulgaria and the Netherlands. These countries are particularly
fast ageing2. Small countries like Luxembourg, Cyprus or Ireland tend to
grow due to the special economic role they play in Europe.
(Im)migration is an interesting aspect in this discussion on population
changes. This trend is seen as a crucial factor to maintain population
growth and stimulate economic activity (to cover up shortages in thelabour market). However, Eurostat points out that migration and
immigration might not be enough to reverse the trend of population
decline in many European countries3.
1Berlin Institute, Europes demographic future, 2008, p.6
2 Mapping Regional Demographic Change and Regional Demographic Location Risk inEurope, May 2008, p.8
3 Eurostat,A survey of demographic trends , 26 August 2008
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The rest of the dossier will not address migration in relation to
demographic change. More information on integration/migration can be
found in the dossier on Integration of Ethnic Minorities and Migrants at
the EUKN website: www.eukn.org/dossiers.
This analysis will emphasise the impact of demographic change on the
urban structure. The following questions will be addressed: What are
the main demographic challenges in Europe? What does the EU do to
assist Member States and cities in coping with demographic change?
What are the effects of demographic change on urban areas? What
instruments can cities apply to tackle demographic change?
These questions will be addressed in three sections, which make up the
analysis:
1. Trends and developments in EU Member States2. EU context3. The demographic future of European cities
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2 Trends & developments inMembers States
As acknowledged in the introduction, demographic change is a very
broad notion, comprising social and physical aspects. As the dossier can
impossibly be exhaustive on this topic, the analysis will discuss three
main concepts of demographic change in the EU:
Ageing: a shift in a cities population towards older ages Shrinking cities: cities facing severe population decline Urban sprawl: the spreading outwards of a city and its suburbs
to its outskirts
2.1 AgeingMost European Member States experience demographic change
characterised by an ageing population, with rising old age dependency
ratios (the ratio of people aged 65 and older to people aged 15 to 65).
To mention an example: the share of over 75-year-olds in the Italian
region Liguria, the highest figure in all Europe (13%), is set to rise to
18% by 2030. Furthermore, in the region Chemnitz in eastern Germany,
the share of 75-year-olds will nearly double, from 10% to 19% in
20304.
More generally, in the early 21st century around one in five Europeans
was aged 65 years or older, with an old age dependency ratio of four
working-age people for every senior citizen. According to the World
Health Organisation, this ratio is projected to double by 2050. The
European Union will thus move from four persons of working age for
every senior citizen to only two. Following this trend, the total
population in 2050 will be slightly smaller and considerably older than it
is today. This is illustrated in the following figure.
4 Berlin Institute for Population and Development, Europes Demographic Future, 2008,p.8
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The working-age population in 2060, for the whole EU, will be smaller
by almost 50 million people compared to 2008. Over the same period,
the population aged 65 years or over is projected to increase by almost
67 million people. The old-age-dependency ratio in 2060 will therefore
be more than double its current level: an increase of 28.1%. Moreover,
the above graph illustrates that the old-age dependency ratio in 2060
will vary among countries by almost 30% from the lowest to the highest
rate. In 2008, the difference was 14%. What can be concluded from the
graph is that although the dependency ratio will increase for the whole
group, individual countries will be affected differently5.
Ageing is not only a European problem: the entire world is rapidly
ageing. As stated by Gaign & Thisse in their working paper on Aging
nations and the future of cities: the United States old age dependency
is expected to be lower than Europe, with a rise from 19% to 32%. In
contrast, the ratio is expected to be higher in Japan, with a rise from
25% in 2000 to 72% in 2050 6. But not only developed countries
experience ageing populations: 70% of all older people now live in low
or middle-income countries, where ageing is occurring much faster than
in the developed world (WHO).
Impact on the urban structure
Shifts in the age structure of the European population will have a
particular strong impact on the local level. First of all, because an
ageing society will put immense pressure on social and health care
systems. These systems need to be paid for by taxes and incomes of
5 EUROSTAT, population projections, June 2008
6 GAIGN, C. & THISSE, J.F., Working Paper SMART Aging nations and the future ofcities, July 2009, p.4
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the working age people. Yet, while the number of older people is
growing and the share of those of working age is decreasing, there will
be less income compared to higher expenditures for pensions, health
and long term care7. As a result, the future sustainability of pension,
health care systems and labour supply is under threat. Andrea
Winkelmann-Gleed presented a possible solution in her research on
Demographic change and implications for workforce ageing in Europe 8.
According to Winkelmann-Gleed should the generations after the baby
boomers save more money, pay higher taxes and work longer. Other
innovative concepts to deal with an ageing population, such as healthy
ageing and age-friendly cities, will be discussed in chapter four.
Furthermore, a shift in the age structure will directly affect social and
public services, spatial planning and housing. These changes are taking
place on a more physical and micro-level. As people grow older, their
needs are changing. Elderly people are increasingly facing mobility
problems, health issues and problems with appropriate housing. As a
result, seniors tend to spend more time at home or in the immediate
outdoor surroundings than younger people do. For that reason, city
administrations should respond to changing demands regarding health
care, social services, public transport, housing, and spatial planning.
One can think of safe pavements and cycle tracks; more public parks
and green spaces; easy accessibility of public buildings; online shopping
services; elderly homes; affordable, adapted houses and the support of
local initiatives on helping elderly people move around9.
7 Joint Programming Initiative (JPI) More Years Better Lives: http://www.jp-demographic.eu. Website last consulted on June 30, 2010
8 Andrea WINKELMANN-GLEED, Demographic change and implications for workforceageing in Europe - raising awareness and improving practice , August 2008, p.33
9 Committee of the Regions, How to promote ageing well in Europe, 2009, p.16
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A successful practice regarding public transport can be found in the
Netherlands. The youngest province in the Netherlands, Flevoland,
suffered drawbacks in their regional public transport system: lack of
buses in the evenings and at weekends, suspension of certain lines and
a lack of public transport within the vicinity of homes. For the ageing
population, ill and handicapped people, there was thus a greater need
for public transport.
This is why the region of Flevoland implemented in 2001 a new concept:
la carte public transport. It combines taxi-style service with
traditional public transport. With one phone call, an itinerary is
organised on request to take the traveller where he or she wishes,
including places inaccessible to the public transport lines. The la carte
pub lic transport is entirely oriented towards peoples needs. And this is
important, as senior citizens need services adapted to their particularneeds. This public transport system ensures the mobility of the elderly
people and therewith promotes their social well being and quality of life.
The successful example of Flevoland has been retrieved from the
Regional policy responses to demographic challenges report of the
European Union, Regional Policy. More information regarding this case
can be found on: www.eukn.org/dossiers/demographic_change
Other instruments and tools which local practitioners and policy makers
can use to ensure an age-friendly city, are presented in the report: How
to promote ageing well in Europe . This paper has been initiated by the
Committee of the Regions (CoR) and AGE - the European Older Peoples
Platform and presents projects funded by various EU programmes.
In short, ageing of the population (but also shrinking) have fundamental
repercussions for health and social security systems, for the economy
and the labour market, and for public finance. Ageing leads to increased
demand for health and long-term care and rising health care
expenditure. Demographic change is without doubt of far-reaching
importance
for the economy and society, since demographic decline strongly
influences almost all relevant areas of policy action10.
10Regions 2020, An Assessment of Future Challenges for EU Regions, November 2008
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2.2 Shrinking citiesAccording to Eurostat projections, Europe will become the first continentthat has to deal with a severe population decline by 2035. European
cities experience shrinking, due to depopulation of their city centres or
inner-city areas. Urban shrinkage is thus an important and, at the same
time, complex phenomenon. Thinking in terms of growth has always
dominated urban planning. Yet, according to Koen Elzerman in his
master thesis onA future with shrinkage, challenges of housing market,
liveability, regional politics, economic viability and provision and quality
of facilities are a direct result of declining populations11.
Economic developments form an important and influencing context for
shrinking cities. It can cause shrinking cities, for instance, as industrial
transformations lead to a diminishing of certain industrial sectors and
therewith a part of the population in that area. Additionally, shrinking
can be a result of spatial planning, for example through polarisation:
one particular region becomes stronger than other regions or cities in
the area. Furthermore, shrinking (cities) could be the result of
population policies of local governments. However, the actual shrinking
of a population could also be ascribed to demographic trends such as
ageing and selective migration12.
In many European countries, including Spain, Poland, the Netherlands,
or Romania, shrinking cities have only been an issue for several years.
However, in Germany it has already been an important concern formany years. Magdeburg is a good example. About ten years ago, the
municipality drew the conclusion that there was a surplus of 30,000
flats in the city. Until the late nineties, Magdeburg thought, and was
hoping, that the citizens would return as long as the neighbourhoods
were renovated and new apartments were built. Nevertheless, the
awareness that population decline would be permanent, came late.
Even though many European countries are nowadays dealing with
shrinking cities, the gravity and pace of this demographic trend varies
across the EU. This is illustrated in the following graph:
11 Elzerman, K., A Future with Shrinkage: What is a suitable policy response toshrinkage?, April 2010, p. 1
12 Based on Dutch report by KEI kenniscentrum stedelijke vernieuwing, KEI-overzicht:Krimp, p. 4
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Wikipedia, European Population Growth 2006
This map shows a diversity of population decline and population growth
throughout Europe. The eastern European countries are visibly more
affected with population decline than western or northern European
countries, where populations are growing 0,5% to 1%. However, as
mentioned before, there are strong regional differences that determine
the degree of shrinking in a particular region or city area.
Impact on the urban structure
According to a survey of the CEMR on The Impact of Demographic
Change on Local and Regional Government, population decline leads to
economic problems for the private sector, as declining populationsdemand fewer private services and products13. Additionally,
municipalities will face problems regarding public services, as fewer
resources are available to finance the same fixed costs of
infrastructures like water and energy supply, public transport or
wastewater treatment, as well as (social) public infrastructures
including schools, child care facilities, libraries and swimming pools. The
13 Council of European Municipalities and Regions (CEMR), The Impact of DemographicChange on Local and Regional Government, May 2006, p.4
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financial burden per capita is consequently rising, as it is impossible for
municipalities to reduce their services at the same rate as that of
population change, decline or ageing. On top of that, public services are
of general interest, which is why there are limits to reducing or
discontinuing these services14.
Moreover, shrinking populations (like ageing populations) have a great
impact on the housing market. The dramatic development in eastern
Germany since the fall of the Berlin Wall, for instance, has led to more
than a million empty apartments and the abandoning of countless
industrial parks. In this region, and other typical shrinking regions such
as Parkstad Limburg (the Netherlands), the number of dwellings are
very high, compared to a decreasing demand. Potential entrants have a
very large choice to make when they decide to live in cities. And a lot of
choice means generally that less dwellings will be exploited; leading tovacancy and decay. Another effect of a shrinking population on the
housing market is a decreasing rent, due to an oversupply of the real
estate stock. The influence of the oversupply provides a reduction of the
value of real estate, due to a direct link between rent and the price of
real estate15.
New vision on dealing with shrinking cities
For many years population decline has been regarded as a long-term
problem. Many European cities neglected the importance of this issue,and argued that shrinkage is not a permanent problem. Local
governments therefore started to build more apartments or renovate old
dwellings and offered more services to attract citizens. However, the
effort of local governments and their approach did not succeed: citizens
did not return. As Elzerman states in his thesis on a future with
14 Idem
15 R. van Hooijdonk & P. Rietberg, Real estate market analysis and investmentdecisions, 2010)
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shrinkage: it is now necessary to accept the facts of the situation
concerned and start thinking in terms of shrinkage. Derks, Hovens and
Klinkers (2007) describe this transformation of thinking in terms of
growth towards thinking in terms of shrinkage as a mourning process.
This process consists of five developmental stages:
1. Confrontation with shrinkage
2. Denial and condemnation
3. Resistance: planning for growth
4. Acceptance
5. Actively involving shrinkage in policy making
The first stage of this process consist of the confrontation of local
governors and policy makers with shrinkage in their area of activity. As
a response, they will first tend to deny and condemn the situationbefore adjusting their actual policy making (stage 2). As a result, policy
makers and practitioners aim at turning shrinkage into growth; building
houses to facilitate the growth and at the same time to win the
competition for inhabitants. This can be typified as resistance: policy
makers keep on falling back on the old principles of growth 16. However,
it is unrealistic to think that one could fight the demographic changes in
this way. It is better to abandon the habit of planning for growth and
focus on the challenges and opportunities of a future with shrinkage.
The fourth stage of the process, acceptance of shrinkage, is necessary
(and thus a vital precondition) for involving shrinkage in policy making.
As Derks et al. state: The pace in which this stage is reached depends
on the willingness of local governors, policy makers and other
stakeholders like inhabitants and entrepreneurs17. After full acceptance
of the situation, actively involving shrinkage in policy making can
become effective. According to Elzerman, the policy making can
comprise traditional planning tools like demolition of vacant buildings,
as well as alternative planning tools like art, culture, communication
and the empowerment of social networks (p. 37).
Opportunities of shrinking
The effects caused by urban shrinking present economic and social
challenges for local governments. As a result, practitioners and policy
makers are increasingly investigating innovative and creative solutions,and suitable policy responses to fight the consequences of a declining
and ageing population. In this context, the housing market and
structure of supplies will need to be targeted to new housing wishes and
changing living requirements of its population. Furthermore, old,
16 Elzerman, K. A Future with Shrinkage: What is a suitable policy response toshrinkage?, April 2010, p. 28/29
17 Derks, W., P. Hovens & L.E.M. Klinkers: Structurele bevolkingsdaling; een urgentenieuwe invalshoek voor beleidsmakers. Presentation at Region Westelijke Mijnstreek,Sittard: 1st November 2007, p. 25-31
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unattractive dwellings need to be demolished and replaced by more
green spaces, low construction or nursing homes, to accommodate the
rising number of elderly people.
Additionally, local governments should invest in age-resistant housing.
This concept is based on the theory that dwellings need to be available
to residents at different stages of life. So ideally, any home should be
ergonomically suitable for any other resident. This concept is still very
new, as developers have no direct interest in providing quality. Hence,
improvements concerning usability still need to be made.
Finally, shrinkage could be counteracted by making a city more
attractive. Municipalities naturally seek to attract and to keep residents
in their cities. Yet, this should not be achieved through competition with
other municipalities in the area. Instead, cities should work together totackle demographic challenges and focus on their particular strengths.
Services, for instance, can be provided in a more efficient and
innovative way through the principle of shared services or by
outsourcing the services.
Shared services is interesting for smaller cities and villages, as it brings
together services under one roof, leading to more efficient and effective
service provision in the area. One example of shared services can be
found in Ten Boer, the Netherlands. This municipality (7,431
inhabitants) in a rural area in the north of the Netherlands has
established an extreme form of cooperation with the municipality of
Groningen, as it becomes increasingly difficult for small municipalities to
execute all tasks on an adequate and qualitative level by itself. The civil
service is too small.
Key issues of the cooperation between Ten Boer and Groningen:
- Ten Boer remains, as independent municipality, to determine itsown policy and management;
- Executive tasks are carried out by employees of the municipalityof Groningen;
- Most of the Ten Boer municipality employees started working forthe municipality of Groningen. Only 15 civil servants remainemployed by the municipality of Ten Boer. They formulate the
commands to the municipality of Groningen and execute control
over the implementation;
- A very important principle is that the residents of themunicipality Ten Boer should suffer no adverse effects of this
cooperation; common front office duties remain therefore
possible in the municipality of Ten Boer;
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- Through this cooperation, Ten Boer can offer quality of itsservices, by putting the services under the roof of a (bigger)
city18.
2.3 Urban SprawlPresently, most of the world population live in urban areas. This means
that more than a quarter of the European Unions territory is directly
affected by urban land use. By 2020 approximately 80% of the
Europeans will be living in urban areas. The various demands for land in
and around cities are therefore becoming increasingly urgent. Accordingto the European Environmental Agency (EEA), rapid, visible and
conflicting changes are taking place, modifying landscapes in cities and
around them as never before.
Coasts and resident communities, as an example, are being urbanised
at an increasing pace, in order to accommodate new economies. These
places are becoming consequently ever more intertwined with the
surrounding area and become more dependent on tourism and
secondary homes. As the European Environmental Agency states in its
report on Urban Sprawl in Europe The ignored challenge: cities are
spreading, minimising the time and distances between and in-and-out of
the cities (p.5). The expansion of cities throughout Europes
countryside is also referred to as urban sprawl. This phenomenon is now
regarded as one of the major common challenges facing urban Europe
today19.
Urban sprawl is a typical US phenomenon that appeared in the first part
of the 20th century. In that time, US cities could be characterised by
high rates of private car ownership, developments of detached houses
with gardens and rapid growth, leading to an outward expansion of US
cities. Yet, in Europe sprawl evolved slowly, as European cities have
been much more compact. European cities such as Paris, London, and
Brussels, have experienced sprawl to some extent in the late 20 thcentury, even though they remained far more compact than their
American counterpart. Nowadays, cities from Luxembourg to Budapest,
from Madrid to Istanbul experience accelerating sprawl and therewith
increased automobile traffic, CO2 emissions, energy consumption, land
18 Shared services bij de overhead, Ten Boer-Groningen:www.sharedservicesbijdeoverheid.nl/praktijkvoorbeelden?category=Meerdere+terreinen&id=61. Website last consulted on June 30, 2010.
19 European Environment Agency (EEA), Urban Sprawl in Europe- the ignoredchallenge, 2006, p. 5
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fragmentation, natural resource degradation, watershed damage,
farmland decline and social polarisation.
Typically, these changes are more drastic in the southern, eastern and
central parts of Europe, where housing plots sprawl outward from the
cities with little regard for planning or the environment. This is
acknowledged by Attila St, expert of urban sprawl affairs at VTI
(Hungary). According to Attila, sprawl as an uncoordinated expansion of
towns is a general problem in Central-Eastern Europe, where most of
the biggest centres of the settlement network and their metropolitan
areas are suffering from this problem. He continues that the main
reasons for urban sprawl are environmental and economic ones. Attila:
A deprivation of inner urban territories can be observed, the quality of
built environment is in decline, the internal districts are crowded,
polluted and dirty, and the quality of public services are getting worse.
This is not an attractive environment for young, skilled people, whomove to bigger free, open areas close to the city (to read the whole
interview with Attila St, please read page 41-43 of this dossier or
visit www.eukn.org/dossiers/demographic_change).
Though, it should be noted that urban sprawl does not only occur in
former communist countries. It also take place in countries or regions
with high population density and economic activity (i.e. Belgium, the
Netherlands, southern and western Germany, northern Italy, the Paris
region), or countries with rapid economic growth (i.e. Ireland, Portugal
eastern Germany or the Madrid region). More generally, sprawl is
evident in member states or regions who have benefited from EU
regional policies. Urban sprawl is thus a common phenomenon
throughout Europe20.
Impact on the urban structure
Urban sprawl is an important issue, due to the major impacts that are
evident in increased energy, land and soil consumption. These impacts
threaten both the natural and rural environments, raising greenhouse
gas emissions that cause climate change, and elevated air and noise
pollution levels. The impact of urban sprawl has direct effect on the
quality of life for people living in cities. Despite these disadvantages of
urban sprawl, some people might argue that urban sprawl illustrates
positive growth of a local economy.
20 Idem, 2006, p.9
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Compact building
To preserve the quality of life, open spaces and a healthy environment
for people living in cities, local governments started with smart
growth. This urban planning concept incorporates more compact
building design as an alternative to conventional, land consumptive
development. The compact building design suggests that communities
be designed in a way which permits more open space, and that
buildings should be constructed which make more efficient use of land
and resources. It thus encourages buildings to grow vertically rather
than horizontally. As a consequence, the compact building approach is
efficient by requiring less land for construction and at the same time it
provides and protects more open, undeveloped land. It is additionally
cheaper to provide and maintain services like water, sewer, electricity,phone service and other utilities in more compact neighbourhoods than
in diffused areas.
Westerdokeiland, Amsterdam
The Westerdokeilandin Amsterdam is good example of smart growth in
the Netherlands. The city of Amsterdam has little choice: it must grow.
Since density building in the surrounding area is undesirable, the city
needs to apply compact building. The new Westerdokseiland project
goes furthest in this development. It is situated only 800 metres from
the busiest public transport interchange in the Netherlands: Amsterdam
central station. That brought a new super-dense urban neighbourhood,
with fascinating, but also great complexity. It is the most compact
urban area in the Netherlands, with 175 to 300 dwellings per hectare.
The Westerdokseiland consists of four large blocks crossed by narrow
streets. It includes a total of 940 homes, 900 indoor parkings, 7000
square meters of office, 1800 square meters artist studios and 850
square meters kindergarten. Hence, it is clear that the limits of compact
building have achieved here21.
In short, smart growth recognises, as seen in the above mentioned
example, connections between development and quality of life. This is
important, so that communities are able to continue to grow, but at the
same time preserve the vitality of city centres, open spaces and otherenvironmental amenities for its citizens22.
21 Volkskrant, Steeds meer bewoners per vierkante meter stad, 10 April 2009
22 Retrieved from website: www.smartgrowth.org, Principles of Smart Growth.
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Westerdokeiland Photo: Mart Grisel
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2.4 ConclusionCities continue to change. We identified three important processes atthe heart of these changes: the pains of growing cities, the symptoms
of stagnating or declining cities and ageing populations. Each of these
trends affect the urban environment in such a way that infrastructure,
the housing market, and social and public services need to be adapted
accordingly, to respond to the changing needs of elderly, youngsters
and families living in cities.
The main challenge of ageing populations, on macro level, is the
continuity of pension systems. The number of working age people is
diminishing compared to a rise in the share of elderly people, leading to
higher expenditures for pensions, health and long term care. This higher
expenditure needs to be paid for by taxes and incomes of the working
age people, which, as mentioned above, are decreasing.
On micro level, the main challenge of ageing populations is the
provision of public and social services and housing. As senior citizens
become less mobile, it becomes more important that urban development
is adapted to their particular needs. This include for instance homes
with elevators and specialised bathrooms, more green spaces, online
shopping services, online government services and other online services
and so on.
Main challenges for shrinking cities lie at the rearrangement or
reorganisation of the public services. Because there are less resources
available to finance the same fixed costs for infrastructures, public
transport, schools, libraries and wastewater treatment. Municipalities
can tackle this problem through the concept of shared services: offering
high quality services via other municipalities (thus cooperating and
sharing services with other, bigger, municipalities in the area). This
counts especially for rural areas that have less to offer than urban
areas.
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Another challenge of shrinking cities is a change of thinking in terms of
growth towards thinking in terms of shrinkage. The first vision has
dominated urban planning for years, however thousands of empty
dwellings and industrial parks have been the result. Nowadays,
shrinkage has become more accepted and acute, leading to a different
approach to population decline: old, unattractive dwellings/apartments
have been demolished, and made room for low construction and elderly
homes.
Finally, most big (metropolitan) cities are growing. More inhabitants
means, generally, the building of more houses and other facilities.
Smart growth presents therefore a challenge to deal with this outward
expansion of a city in a efficient and compact way. This urban planning
concept incorporates more compact building design as an alternative toconventional, land consumptive development. It fosters/stimulates
urban development (and growth), but at the same time preserves the
quality of life of inhabitants.
The next section of this analysis will define EUs role in assisting
Member States to cope with demographic change.
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3 EU contextThe importance of demographic change and its challenges is widely
acknowledged at the European level. At the 2005 European Summit in
Hampton Court (UK), the heads of government and state agreed that
demographic change is a shared concern across the EU, which is felt by
Europes citizens. In order to deal with demographic changes like
decreasing birth rates and ageing populations, adequate policy
responses are necessary. Most measures to respond to demographic
change will be Member States responsibility whether local, regional or
central since the European Union has no direct competence in dealing
with demographic change. The following communications and papers
show the increasing importance of demographic challenges on EUspolitical agenda and EUs commitment with demographic change.
In 2005, the European Union has published a Green Paper Confronting
demographic change: a new solidarity between the generations . This
Green Paper presented challenges such as low birth rate; the possible
contribution of immigration; better integration of young people, and
solidarity with the senior citizens, to reverse demographic decline and
the weak natural population increase. One of the goals of this green
paper is to include the implementation of the Lisbon Agenda; in
particular regarding the policies focusing on employment, innovation
and increasing productivity. This paper additionally emphasised thenecessity of a continued modernisation of the social protection systems,
particularly pensions, to ensure their social and economic sustainability
and enable them to cope with the effects of demographic ageing23.
Subsequently, the European Commission has put forward a
Communication in 2006 on The demographic future of Europe from
challenge to opportunity. This communication has been established
following hearings with experts, extensive research on demographic
change and a consultation. It is a follow-up of the above mentioned
communication and developed a reference framework at Community
level for Member States' policies. The framework has set out five areas
that respond to a common perspective of restored confidence:
- Promoting demographic renewal in Europe- Promoting employment in Europe: more jobs and longer working
lives of better quality
- A more productive and dynamic Europe- Receiving and integrating migrants in Europe
23 Green Paper Confronting demographic change: a new solidarity between thegenerations, 2005
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- Sustainable public finances in Europe: guaranteeing adequatesocial security and equity between the generations.
More recently, the European Commission has adopted a Communication
on The impact of an ageing population in the EU (2009), accompanied
by an extensive analytical report: the 2009 Ageing Report. These and
other policy reports from the European Union (i.e. 2nd demography
report; Regions 2020- an assessment of future challenges for EU
regions and Europe 2020 - A European strategy for smart, sustainable
and inclusive growth), provide further relevant information on trends in
birth and death rates, migration and life expectancy assumptions,
regional challenges of demographic change, policy implications in
responding to the needs of an ageing population and a new European
strategy on smart, sustainable and inclusive growth.
The abovementioned documents in italic can be found on the EUKNwebsite: www.eukn.org/dossiers/demographic_change.
Besides these European frameworks, the European Union could play a
useful role in facilitating the process of adapting to demographic change
for cities and regions. This is first of all realised through the availability
of funds and programs to give an economic impulse to certain deprived
regions/cities.
E-health (enhanced use of ICT technology in the health care sector), as
an example, is a very innovative and developing concept. ICT plays
nowadays a very important role in our economy. We must therefore
ensure that our economy will benefit from existing and future ICT
possibilities. Above all by investing more in ICT research and
development. This vision is expressed in the Digital Agenda of Mrs. N.
Kroes, EU Commissioner for Digital Agenda, stating that
underinvestment in R&D is not only a problem for the ICT sector, but
for the whole European economy. Hence, ICT is an important theme in
the adopted Europe 2020 strategy.
Another role for the European Union, next to financial support and
project funding, is research and data provision. This includes improved
statistics on demographic trends at local level. Two cities in Europe,
Manchester and Nottingham, specified this request with their need for
better data on migration flows. Besides, the European Union should playa role in policy development. It could support cities in reforming and
renovating their urban infrastructure, and helping them to develop
integrated approaches and better service delivery. These and other
roles for the EU, including stimulation of the exchange of best practices
and policies directed at families, have been identified in the
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EUROCITIES Demographic Change Survey24. Forty member cities, from
23 countries participated in this survey.
Regarding the financial support and project funding, the EU provides
several instruments and programmes that local practitioners and policy
makers could apply. These instruments are presented in the publication
How to promote ageing well in Europe of the Committee of the Regions
(CoR) and AGE, The European Older Peoples Platform25. The following
table summarises a few important programmes:
Instrument Subject
DG Regio- Structural Funds Member States can use the
Structural Funds to respond to
implement projects, for instance in
the field of elderly care.European Regional Development
Fund (ERDF)
The ERDF supports projects on
demographic change, by addressing
regional development, economic
change and enhanced
competitiveness.
INTERREG IV C This programme gives cities and
regions the opportunity to work
together and exchange good
practices and knowledge on the
best ways to meet the needs of
ageing populations in various policyareas.
URBACT II This programme can be used to
develop age-friendly urban policies
and to facilitate the exchange of
experiences between European
cities faced with demographic
changes.
Conclusion
The European Union is concerned with demographic change. Some of its
Member States experience urban sprawl, others shrinking or ageing of
their population. These demographic challenges require a European
strategy. However, as we have seen, the European Union has little
competence in dealing with demographic change. The Union provides for
programmes and projects which local and regional actors could use in
their search for dealing with demographic change.
24 EUROCITIES, Analysis of EUROCITIES Demographic Change Survey 2007, November2007, p. 15
25 CoR & AGE, How to promote Ageing Well in Europe: Instruments and tools availableto local and regional actors, October 2009, p. 27-35
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4 The demographic future ofEuropean cities
4.1 Successful local initiativesPrevious chapters have presented a picture of demographic change
across European Member States; highlighting its impact on the urban
structure. It showed that all (EU) countries are facing demographic
problems that need to be solved. And as we have seen, population
decline, ageing and urban sprawl will have far-reaching consequences
on housing needs, employment and the use of facilities. These
demographic challenges are best dealt with at the local level. Europe in
its diversity of cultures and sensibilities, is a marketplace of ideas,
successes and failures26.
There are two questions still unanswered: How can local authorities deal
with demographic change? And what instruments can cities apply to
tackle demographic change?
As we have seen in previous chapters, countries and cities have been
very active in implementing and creating new initiatives to cope with
the demographic challenges. One of these initiatives include healthy
ageing and age-friendly cities. The concepts will be analysed hereafter.Then, the main points of a case study on Dessau- Rolau are presented
to show other cities how eastern Germany has dealt with population
decline. On top of that, several networks on shrinking (cities) will be
presented.
Healthy Ageing - UMCG
The population in Europe will be ageing. The costs for health care will
rise accordingly. And without adequate/effective prevention, diagnosis
and treatment, these costs will be impossible to bear for future
generations. According to the University Medical Centre Groningen,
there is a lack of basic knowledge about aging processes and there areinsufficient tools for prevention, diagnosis and treatment. Hence, there
is a role for the University Medical Centre Groningen, as the UMCG is
eager to contribute toward resolving the problems that the Dutch
healthcare sector is facing (Erik Buskens, Professor of Medical
Technology Assessment (UMCG). In fact, the UMCG has, as only Medical
Centre in the Netherlands, chosen to embed the theme healthy ageing
in its core business.
26Berlin Institute, Europes Demographic Future, 2008, p.4
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Many researchers at the Medical Centre are dealing with this topic. They
research the possibilities for older people to live longer independently
and healthier through advanced technology. The University Medical
Centre Groningen wants to become a leading centre in the area of
ageing. It has joined forces in 2005 with partners such as the city of
Groningen, the RUG (University), Hanze University of Applied Sciences
Groningen, to further develop Groningen as a city of knowledge and
innovation. The priority areas are energy and healthy ageing. In short,
the UMCG is carrying out research on the possibilities of ageing in the
most healthy way. Many other UMCs could follow their path or join
forces, to exchange basic knowledge and research on healthy ageing
and making healthy ageing possible and more efficient. For more
information on healthy ageing and UMCG, see the interview of UMCG on
page 49- 53 of this dossier.
Global Age-Friendly Cities - WHO
Besides healthy ageing, there are other initiatives and networks
focussing on ageing in a friendly and healthy way. For example the
World Health Organisation (WHO). They have started a project called
Global Age-Friendly Cities. The main aspects of this project include:
- emphasising the lived experience of older people (what seniorsexperience as age-friendly in their daily lives in the community)
and involves them as full partners from start to finish.
- This project aimed at engaging cities all over the world to maketheir communities more age-friendly. Making a city age-friendly
is one of the most effective policy approaches for responding to
demographic ageing. This is true, as cities are major urban
centres, who have the social and economic resources to make
changes to become more age-friendly27.
- WHO has set up the WHO Global Network of Age-Friendly Cities,to support cities in following their approach and to ensure the
quality of the tools and interventions they use.
- In 2007 WHO has published a global guide to help cities becomemore age-friendly, Global Age-Friendly Cities: a guide. This
guide can be found on the EUKN website in the Demographic
Change dossier (www.eukn.org/dossiers/demograpic_change) .
- Cities wishing to become more age-friendly can join the WHOGlobal Network of Age-friendly Cities, by filling in the
application form via: http://www.who.int/ageing/AFCForm.pdf
In summary: adequate measures, research & development, innovation
and investments in the health care sector are necessary to respond to
an increased demand for health and long-term care and higher health
care expenditure in the future.
27 WHO, www.who.int/ageing/age_friendly_cities_network/en/index.html
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Besides initiatives in the field of ageing, there is much effort done to
deal with population decline. The consequences, as we have seen, are
severe and affect public and social services and the housing market. A
shrinking population leads, for instance, to vacancy of houses and
derelict sites in inner cities. As Birgit Glck, social scientist Humboldt
University Berlin, states: the oversupply of housing in eastern
Germany is the result of massive boom in housing investment due to
intense subsidies since unification on the one hand, and a dramatic
depopulation of German cities on the other after unification (see
interview page 37-40). So presently, coping with shrinkage in urban
development is a necessity and the major public policy issue in eastern
Germany.
Case study Dessau - Rolau
Dessau- Rolau, a city in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, has shrunk morethan almost any other municipality in the country. The reason why
young and high qualified people are leaving the city are well known:
after the reunification of Germany in 1990, the industrial sector
collapsed: leaving locals without any means of making a living. This
situation presents a dramatic challenge for cities. The city of Dessau-
Rolau therefore pursues urban restructuring with the aim to support
the development of landscapes and open spaces in inner cities.
The city of Dessau- Rolau has initiated the concept Urban cores -
Landscape Zones. The goal of this project is to strengthen the urban
cores crossed over by green corridors from the surrounding landscape.
Key issues of this project include:
- First sections of the landscape corridors have been realised in2004, in the east and west of the inner city where vacant
residential, office and industrial buildings had been demolished
before.
- In its urban development concept for urban restructuring, thecity has at an early stage focused on the qualitative
development of open spaces in the inner city.
- Although the development is difficult to be implemented on theneighbourhood level, orientation towards the concept is
decisive.
For more information on this case study please visit www.eukn.org
(keywords: Urban restructuring in Dessau-Rolau).
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Furthermore, there are many networks of shrinking cities active in
Europe. To mention only a few:
- www.shrinking cities.com:
A three-year initiative project of Germany's Federal Cultural Foundation,
seeking to expand Germany's city-planning debate - until now
concentrated on questions of demolishing surplus apartments and
improving residential quarters - to address new questions and
perspectives.
- www.shrinkingcities.eu:
By promoting the exchange of scientific knowledge and the stimulation
of new ideas in selected reference cities, the gender-balanced network
with proposers from ten countries will act as a catalyst for new solutions
to deal with demographic changes and to design the restructuring ofshrinking cities in Europe.
- DC NOISE (www.dcnoise.eu):
DC NOISE is an Interreg IVB North Sea Region project. 9 regions from 5
countries in Europe work together to deal with the consequences of
demographic change. The project runs from June 2008 until June 2011.
- The Shrinking Cities International Research Network
(http://www.shrinkingcities.org):
The Shrinking Cities International Research Network (SCiRN) is a
worldwide research consortium of scholars and experts from various
institutions pursuing research on shrinking cities in a global context.
SCiRNs mission is to advance international understanding and promote
scholarship about population decrease in urban regions and urban
decline, causes, manifestations, spatial variations, and effectiveness of
policies and planning interventions.
4.2 ConclusionStrategies at local level
This document has presented several innovative initiatives, networks,and case studies related to demographic change. This section will briefly
describe the most important strategies on ageing, shrinking (cities) and
urban sprawl, at the local level.
First of all ageing: as mentioned before, it poses a threat to the pension
and health care systems. There are obviously many strategies
municipalities could apply to deal with the impact of an ageing
population on the urban structure.
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One important strategy is to raise labour market participation and
employment retention of people over 50 years old. This group is
particularly vulnerable, because if they are getting fired, it is more
difficult to find new employment. Most companies and organisations
want young, fresh employees. A municipality should also promote
longer working lives and lifelong learning strategies to keep the
employees skilled. On top of that, companies should promote
entrepreneurship to increase the working age of people.
A second strategy, in relation to health care systems, is the promotion
of healthy ageing. Some European cities already doing so, such as
This concept should keep the long-term and health care system
sustainable, and at the same time provide high quality services to its
customers. This is/ can be achieved, for instance, through home care.
The installation of new (ICT) technologies in houses can facilitate thisprocess.
Besides, municipalities need to promote the active inclusion of older
people in the community and ensure their equal access to services
(Managing change: impact of demographic ageing for cities).
Concerning shrinking, there has been a great change in strategy to deal
with shrinking. Local policy makers and practitioners used to think in
terms of growth and consequently have built more and more
apartments and flats. However, since several years, municipalities have
come to mind, that building more dwellings and providing more services
is not the solution to keep your residents. They had to come up with
other methods to attract citizens. So, the general approach is that
deprived areas are getting restructured; housing renewal and
improvement of recreational areas together with new facilities for
common purposes in the neighbourhood. This way, local policy makers
are trying to revive a neighbourhood and increase the employment level
and the quality of life.
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