June 9, 2010 2:46 PM Page 1
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S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Nevada\TaxData\monthly_revenue_charts/State GF Revenues ‐ FY 2010
FY 2009Actual Period
Yr/Yr Change Through FY Actual Budgeted ActualNeeded Hereafter to
Meet Forecast
Large Revenue Sources % Month/Quarter (millions) (millions) (millions) % % %
Sales Tax $842.4 $729.8 (13.4) M-9 $561.2 $543.4 $17.7 3.3 (10.5) (21.6)Percentage Fees Collections* 655.4 639.4 (2.4) M-11 572.7 582.7 (10.0) (1.7) (4.1) 14.7Modified Business Tax 277.5 371.1 33.7 Q-3 292.7 280.3 12.4 4.4 39.6 15.4Insurance Premium Tax 238.7 222.9 (6.6) Q-3 181.8 160.8 21.0 13.1 5.6 (38.2)Live Entertainment Tax - Gaming Portion 112.4 104.7 (6.9) M-10 89.9 86.6 3.2 3.7 (3.4) (23.5)Lodging Tax n/a 92.9 n/a M-9 70.5 71.6 (1.1) (1.5) n/a n/aCigarette Tax 97.0 88.2 (9.1) M-9 65.5 65.5 (0.1) (0.1) (9.2) (8.9)Commercial Recordings 70.9 66.1 (6.8) M-10 55.1 54.0 1.2 2.1 (4.8) (15.7)Real Property Transfer Tax 65.9 47.5 (27.9) Q-3 39.5 36.0 3.5 9.7 (20.9) (49.9)Liquor Tax 37.0 38.0 2.7 M-9 28.1 27.7 0.4 1.5 4.3 (1.4)
Totals $2,397.2 $2,400.4 0.1 $1,956.9 $1,908.6 $48.3 2.5 2.7 (9.7)
*Percentage Fees Earned net of EFA 688.4 641.8 (6.8) M-11 584.2 586.7 (2.5) (0.4) (7.2) (2.6)
Yr/Yr Change
Difference
FY 2010 Year-to-DateCollectionsForecast
FY 1010
(millions) (millions)
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ILVER SAGESThe
ILVER SAGESAN OVERVIEW OF NEVADA’S ECONOMY BY THE SAGES AT THE DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION
Cumulative Difference Between Actual and Forecast
Gaming Percentage Fees Collections Sales and Use Tax Collections
S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Nevada\TaxData\monthly_revenue_charts/Large Data by Month FY 10 (2)
FY 2009 Actual*
1 $140.5 $136.5 (2.9) $140.2 (0.3) 2.7 +/- 14.1%2 $292.5 $284.6 (2.7) $292.0 (0.2) 2.6 +/- 13.7%3 1 $590.3 $592.7 0.4 $608.3 3.1 2.6 +/- 18.0%4 $745.5 $743.8 (0.2) $756.1 1.4 1.7 +/- 15.0%5 $895.3 $890.3 (0.6) $897.4 0.2 0.8 +/- 12.7%6 2 $1,200.0 $1,203.8 0.3 $1,232.4 2.7 2.4 +/- 9.4%7 $1,325.5 $1,325.7 0.0 $1,351.7 2.0 2.0 +/- 7.5%8 $1,473.9 $1,469.9 (0.3) $1,500.3 1.8 2.1 +/- 6.7%9 3 $1,772.0 $1,778.2 0.3 $1,824.1 2.9 2.6 +/- 4.1%10 $1,942.4 $1,943.7 0.1 +/- 2.7%11 $2,089.1 $2,085.6 (0.2) +/- 2.0%12 4 $2,395.9 $2,400.4 0.2 +/- 1.1%
$2,397.2 $2,400.4 0.1*Actual Revenues are adjusted to reflect the historical average distribution. **Total includes relevant revenue enhancements.
FY 2010Forecast**
Month Quarter
Fiscal YearFY 2010Actual
Differencefrom forecast
%
Yr/YrChange
%
Year End
Millions Millions Millions95% Chance Forecast
Correct if Yr/Yr % Difference Between
Yr/YrChange
% 95% limit
Observed Change
-21%
-18%
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Diffe
renc
e fro
mEc
onom
ic F
orum
For
ecas
t
FY 2009-10 Month
Limit using FY'04 to FY'09 data
Limit using FY'04 to FY'08 data
State Large General Fund RevenuesJanuary 2010 Economic Forum Forecast with Legislatively Approved Revenue Enhancements v Actual
FY 2009-10 Large General Fund Revenues Cumulative Year-To-Date Tracking
Positive numbers indicate actual collections ahead of forecast for the indicated fiscal year. The monthly forecasts are based upon the May 2009 Economic Forum projections with appropriate revenue enhancements, assuming a historically derived distribution for monthly collections.
S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Nevada v US/Various Ranks
USRate Rate Rank
1 = worst
Foreclosure Filings Rate Apr '10 0.3% 1.4% 1
Home Price Index 2010q1 v 2009q1 -3.1% -12.2% 2
Wage & Salary Disbursements 2009 v 2008 -4.0% -8.8% 1
Personal Income 2009 v 2008 -1.7% -4.8% 1
Employment* Apr '10 v Apr '09 -1.1% -3.5% 1
Unemployment Apr '10 v Apr '09 9.9% 13.7% 2
*Nevada employment adjusted to reflect data from quarterly reports from employers to DETR.
Nevada
Unless we change the direction we are heading,we might end up where we are going. ChineseProverb
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Other Large Revenue Collections
Page 2 June 9, 2010 2:46 PM
The Silver Sage
Statewide Sales and Use TaxTaxable Sales by IndustryYearOverYearChange
Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank
March 2009 (18.6) 6.1 7 (31.6) 4.9 8 (13.2) 3.7 11 (5.7) 3.5 12 (22.6) 3.9 10April 2009 (10.1) 6.6 7 (29.1) 5.1 8 (6.0) 4.7 9 (2.6) 4.3 12 (24.8) 4.7 10May 2009 (15.3) 6.7 7 (24.9) 4.9 8 (11.9) 4.9 9 (4.7) 4.6 11 (23.6) 4.6 10
June 2009 (15.8) 6.7 7 (29.4) 5.1 8 (1.1) 4.7 9 0.6 4.3 12 (25.6) 4.4 10July 2009 (9.7) 6.7 7 (22.4) 5.4 8 (20.0) 4.6 9 (3.2) 4.6 10 (24.9) 4.5 11
August 2009 (14.0) 7.2 7 (37.3) 4.6 9 (7.6) 5.0 8 (4.5) 4.3 10 (31.7) 3.8 12September 2009 (7.9) 7.5 7 (22.0) 5.2 8 (2.4) 4.8 9 (2.0) 4.0 12 (29.6) 4.0 11
October 2009 4.2 7.2 7 (25.0) 5.1 9 (0.1) 5.2 8 (0.4) 4.1 11 (28.7) 4.1 10November 2009 2.7 8.2 5 (12.1) 5.0 8 (1.4) 4.5 9 (7.1) 4.2 10 (19.7) 3.7 11December 2009 4.2 9.3 5 4.4 5.7 8 5.9 3.8 11 (0.3) 4.7 9 (16.7) 2.9 13
January 2010 5.0 7.0 7 (22.4) 5.1 9 14.0 5.3 8 (4.8) 4.1 10 (22.2) 3.6 11February 2010 9.8 7.6 6 (26.6) 3.9 10 28.1 5.3 8 (2.1) 4.1 9 (10.7) 3.6 11
March 2010 15.6 7.6 7 (4.4) 5.1 9 26.6 5.1 8 0.1 3.8 11 (8.1) 3.9 10
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Manufacturing Accommodation Food & Beverage Stores
Building Material & Garden Equipment& Supplies
(448) (311--339) (721) (445) (444)Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total
Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank
March 2009 (7.5) 15.3 1 (16.1) 10.2 4 (14.3) 9.4 5 (38.8) 7.7 6 29.6 14.8 2April 2009 (6.9) 18.1 1 (27.4) 9.8 3 (5.2) 9.4 4 (30.4) 8.1 6 (27.7) 8.5 5May 2009 (10.2) 18.4 1 (24.4) 9.7 4 (7.5) 10.1 3 (29.9) 9.5 5 (40.7) 7.7 6
June 2009 (9.2) 16.0 1 (15.7) 10.4 3 (11.0) 9.4 4 (26.3) 9.1 5 (36.9) 8.5 6July 2009 2.3 17.8 1 (18.9) 10.0 2 (10.8) 9.6 5 (31.7) 9.9 3 (34.5) 8.0 6
August 2009 (10.5) 17.4 1 (19.0) 10.2 3 (9.3) 9.8 4 (16.4) 11.0 2 (35.7) 8.0 6September 2009 5.5 16.8 1 (15.8) 10.7 3 (6.2) 9.3 4 (20.7) 8.4 5 (31.7) 8.3 6
October 2009 (8.9) 16.9 1 (10.0) 11.3 2 (3.2) 9.5 4 (14.1) 8.7 5 (35.8) 7.5 6November 2009 (10.0) 16.1 1 (4.8) 12.1 2 (1.5) 11.5 3 (9.3) 7.7 6 (27.0) 7.3 7December 2009 (16.5) 12.1 3 (4.0) 13.3 2 (0.7) 13.6 1 (0.4) 7.3 6 (25.1) 6.9 7
January 2010 0.1 18.4 1 (0.7) 11.6 2 0.2 9.6 4 (4.6) 9.2 5 (20.9) 7.4 6February 2010 7.4 18.4 1 (2.7) 11.8 2 2.7 10.3 4 8.2 8.9 5 (18.7) 7.6 7
March 2010 5.1 17.4 1 3.4 11.4 2 2.6 10.5 4 10.7 9.2 5 (51.4) 7.8 6
Wholesale TradeMotor Vehicle & Parts DealersGeneral Merchandise Stores
Share of Total Share of Total(441) (423--425)
Share of TotalShare of Total Share of Total
Food Services & Drinking PlacesMiscellaneous Retail& Non-Retail Stores
(722) (442, 443, 447, 451, 453, 454) (452)
Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank
March 2009 (41.6) 3.3 13 (30.0) 4.6 9 (33.2) 1.3 14 (40.9) 0.4 15 (19.9) 10.8 3April 2009 (10.1) 4.6 11 (32.2) 3.9 13 (11.8) 1.4 14 (26.4) 0.4 15 (15.8) 10.5 2May 2009 (10.6) 4.1 12 (52.1) 2.8 13 (25.7) 1.4 14 (28.7) 0.4 15 (16.7) 10.3 2
June 2009 (17.5) 4.3 11 (51.3) 3.7 13 (19.4) 1.5 14 (3.7) 0.4 15 (19.4) 11.4 2July 2009 (16.3) 4.0 12 (28.0) 3.8 13 (52.0) 0.9 14 (13.7) 0.4 15 (22.3) 9.9 4
August 2009 (22.5) 4.0 11 (47.5) 3.6 13 (80.6) 1.2 14 (42.5) 0.5 15 (29.1) 9.4 5September 2009 (15.5) 4.1 10 (56.7) 3.4 13 (43.0) 1.5 14 (50.5) 0.5 15 (20.0) 11.6 2
October 2009 (7.1) 4.0 12 (39.0) 3.4 13 (82.1) 1.2 14 (22.1) 0.4 15 (11.5) 11.3 3November 2009 (9.8) 3.4 12 (44.6) 3.3 13 9.6 1.7 14 (5.6) 0.4 15 (12.1) 10.9 4December 2009 (0.7) 3.9 10 (56.5) 2.3 14 195.0 3.2 12 (12.7) 0.3 15 (9.1) 10.7 4
January 2010 (6.4) 3.4 12 (57.4) 2.6 13 (0.6) 1.5 14 (694.3) 0.4 15 (11.0) 10.8 3February 2010 (7.0) 3.4 12 (57.9) 2.1 13 1.0 1.6 14 (19.2) 0.4 15 (12.0) 11.2 3
March 2010 (3.4) 3.4 12 (57.6) 2.1 13 (8.9) 1.2 14 35.9 0.5 15 (6.0) 11.0 3
(446) (236--238) (111--221) (481--493) (511--713, 811--999)
Other Services, Public Administration& Miscellaneous*Health & Personal Care Stores Construction Natural Resources & Utilities Transportation & Warehousing
Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total
Natural Resources & Utilities2.1%
Construction
Manufacturing,Transportation &
Warehousing5.3%
4.9%
Wholesale Trade
Other Services, Public Administration
& Miscellaneous*10.8%
Wholesale Trade9.6%
Miscellaneous Retail& Non-Retail StoresF d S i & D i ki & Non Retail Stores
11.0%Food Services & Drinking
Places15.3%
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
8.7%General Merchandise StoresTransportation &
Accommodation4.8%
Building Material & Garden
General Merchandise Stores9.7%
Transportation & Warehousing
0.4%
gEquipment & Supplies
4.4%Food & Beverage Stores
4.2%Health & Personal
Care Stores3.9%
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
6.5%
Yr/Yr Chg%
March 2009 (16.5)April 2009 (17.9)May 2009 (21.1)
June 2009 (20.5)July 2009 (18.8)
August 2009 (24.1)September 2009 (17.7)
October 2009 (17.8)November 2009 (10.9)December 2009 (6.6)
January 2010 (8.1)February 2010 (4.5)
March 2010 (7.4)
Total Taxable Sales
*Miscellaneous includes Information, Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Sectors.
Average share of total
Page 3June 9, 2010 2:46 PM
The Silver Sage
Housing Bubble; Financial Crisis
Dot-Com bubble; 9/11
Restrictive monetary policy; spike in oil prices; 1st Gulf war; savings & loan crisis
Iranian Revolution; high oil prices
Energy crisis; inflation; housing bubble
Vietnam; oil crisis
Restrictive monetary policy
Restrictive monetary policy
Restrictive monetary policy
Post Korean War drop in demandHistorical Trend
Below trend by 362,000jobs (24.5%)
Jan '92: 7.6% below trend600
900
1,200
1,500
Thou
sand
s
Nevada Employment
S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Employment\Employment (BLS CES), US & State & MSA by NAICS & MonthChart6
Jan-04
Post World War IIdrop in demand
Feb '82: 9.4% below trendWorld War II
0
300
1938
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2010
Calendar Year
"Official"Recession
ContractingUS Employment
$60
Nevada Inflation-Adjusted Wage & Salary Disbursements
down 16.3%from peak
$50
from peak
$40
rs
$30Billi
ons
2009
Dol
lar
$20
Jun-04$10
$0
1938
1939
1940
1941
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Calendar Year
S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Income & Net Worth\Personal Income (BEA), State by Quarter\Chart2
Page 4 June 9, 2010 2:46 PM
The Silver Sage
S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Retail\Retail Sales, NV by MonthSS Retail Sales, NV by month
46.8% decline from peakJan-10
March Daily Collections
52 months since peakDec-05
48 months
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5M
illio
ns20
10 D
olla
rs
Inflation-Adjusted Average Daily 2% Sales Tax Receipts
Jan-10Dec-89
30.9% decline from Dec-89 peakJan-92
Jan-89 Jan-99$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
1982
1983
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2010
Calendar Year
Jan-01
Nov-06April win
50 months
42 monthssince peak
30
35
40
45
Mill
ions
2010
Dol
lars
Inflation‐Adjusted Statewide Average Daily Gaming Win
36.7% decline from Nov-06 Peak
20.1% decline fromJan-01 Peak
Jun-94 Jun-98
15
20
25
1982
1983
1984
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2010
2
Calendar Year
Page 5June 9, 2010 2:46 PM
The Silver Sage
$290
$310
$150
$170
$190
$210
$230
$250
$270
1978
1979
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1981
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1983
1984
1985
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1988
1989
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1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
30%Change in Total DropChange in Drop Excluding Baccarat
31 months
10%
20%Change in Drop Excluding Baccarat
20%
-10%
0%
-30%
-20%
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
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2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Inflation-Adjusted Las Vegas Average Gaming Win per Visitor
Calendar Year
Calendar Year
Year
-Ove
r-Yea
r Cha
nge
2009
Dol
lars
20%
25%
16 Months 40 Months
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
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1993
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1995
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1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Inflation-Adjusted Statewide Average Daily Gaming Drop
Inflation-Adjusted Daily Sales Tax Collections
Calendar Year
Year
-Ove
r-Yea
r Cha
nge
Page 6 June 9, 2010 2:46 PM
The Silver Sage
200
250
300
20-City Maximum10-City Composit
Las Vegas Maximum:August 2006 @ 235.7
'08 Las Vegas Trend
Las Vegas Current: Mar'[email protected] (56.0% decline from peak)
50
100
150
20-City Minimum
Las Vegas10-City Composit
'90's Las Vegas Trend
0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Hom
e Pr
ice
Inde
x Ja
nuar
y 20
00 H
PI =
100
Case-Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Home Price Index
90 000
105,000
120,000
135,000
150,000
165,000
Room Inventory
DecemberMarch
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
75,000
90,000
Average Daily Visitor Volume
0
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
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1986
1987
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2010
Las Vegas Visitors vs. Room Inventory
Calendar Year
Visi
tors
/ Ro
oms
Record High: May 20044,941
2 500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Record Low: December 2008202 1/1/1982
281 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
281 0
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2010
Calendar Year
Nevada Single Family Home Permits Issued
Calendar Year
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