Climate Change Vulnerability & Adap5ve Capacity Assessment:
Example from Ka‘ūpūlehu’ ahupua’a -‐ Hawai‘i Island
Alex Frost – Graduate Student University of Hawaii
Department of Urban and Regional Planning & University of Hawaii Economic Research Organiza5on (UHERO)
Ques5ons: What combina5on of land-‐use prac5ces best enhance social-‐ecological resilience under different climate change scenarios? a) What are the past, current and future (poten3al) land
uses/cover? b) What are the op3mal land/ocean use scenarios in the face
of climate change? Loca5ons: • Ha’ena – Kauai Island • Ka‘ūpūlehu’ – Hawai‘i (big) Island • Kubulau -‐ Vanua Levu
Project Background (NSF – Part II)
Project Loca+on – Hawai‘i Island
Hawai‘i Hawaii (Big) Island (10,430km2) North Kona District (pop: 37,875) 33% popula+on growth from 2000-‐2010 Kaupulehu ahupua’a (pop: 614)
Ka‘ūpūlehu ahupua’a
• 16,000+ acres (64 km2) on the slopes of Hualalai Volcano
• Sea level to 8,271 d/2,521m • Forest, grass plains, lava
fields, anchialine ponds, reefs, golf courses, luxury resorts and residences
• No perennial streams • Single owner: Kamehameha
Schools/Bishop Estate • 70+ species of plants with
more than half introduced: – 15 indigenous – 11 endemic
Climate Trend – increasing temperature (Hawai‘i Island Data)
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 200020.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
23
Mean
Tem
pera
ture (
°C )
Reference Location: 20.09 N, 155.26 W
10−year moving average with 95% uncertainty range12−month moving average
Country: United States Nearby City: Hilo
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
Climate Trend – Decreasing Rainfall
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Inches
Year
Kaupulehu Annual Rainfall -‐ Kona Village
Source: Giambelluca, T. W., Chen, Q., Frazier, A. G., Price, J.P., Chen, Y.L., Chu, P.S., Eischeid, J., et al. (2011). The rainfall atlas of Hawaii. Retrieved from rainfall.geography.hawaii.edu
Local Observa+on/Knowledge
Source: Heather McMillen
“Maybe this is why we’re losing all this weather, because all these trees are not here anymore.”
“I think the impact on these resources has changed because before it was for our sustenance. Today it’s to make money.”
“About 6-‐7 years ago it rained up mauka (upland) almost the whole year, since then the weather has changed.”
“It’s not good sign when you see the green limu (seaweed), because it means there’s a lot of stuff in the water”
Mauka – Upland Characteris+cs
90% of the dry forests in the Hawai‘ian Islands have been eliminated (Cabin et al.,2004)
One of the last remaining areas of tropical dry forest is in Ka‘ūpūlehu, but it faces many threats: • Fountain grass (Pennisetum setaceum),
which fuels wildfires; • Ungulates, which destroy plants and
increase fountain grass habitat; • Rodents, which eat the seeds and
seedlings of na5ve plants, preven5ng regenera5on;
• Insect preda5on and other alien plant species; and
• Climate change.
Makai -‐ Ocean & Coastal Characteris+c
• Between 1992 to 1998 decline in fish abundance (41%) & fish diversity (26%) • Decline of coral cover from 40.71 % in 2003 to 27.05 % in 2011 (UH, 1999: NOAA, 2013) • Between 1998 to 2012 increased density of certain aquarium & food fish
Designated FRA (1999)
• Increasing numbers of invasive species • Decreasing acreage of dry tropical forests • Decreasing coral reef covers • Poten+al loss of fish popula+on and density from
aquarium, recrea+onal, and commercial fishing; • Increasing pollu+on, drought and fires; • Poten+al loss of cultural assets, achialine ponds,
endangered species, from sea level rise & other climate change impacts
Challenges facing Ka‘ūpūlehu’s unique marine and terrestrial ecosystems:
Adap5ve Capacity = Resource Availability in realms of: Economic, Environmental, Governance, Social, Technology & Infrastructure to prepare and change. Social Focus: Heavy ci+zen involvement with mul+ple community organiza+ons working on conserva+on, restora+on and regenera+on of various ahupua’a sub-‐systems, for example: • The Nature Conservancy • Ka‘ūpūlehu Marine Life Advisory Commijee • West Hawai‘i Fisheries Council • State of Hawai‘i – DLNR • Tourism -‐ Four Seasons Resort & Dive Operators • North Kona Dryland Forest Working Group • Residence and Cultural Prac++oners • Kamehameha School and Youth • County of Hawai‘i and others…
Opportuni+es -‐ Strong Adap+ve Capacity in Ka‘ūpūlehu
Next Step -‐ Climate Adapta+on Planning Process
Marine Ecosystem Characteris5cs
Local Ecological Knowledge (interviews)
Terrestrial Ecosystem Characteris5cs
Stakeholder Gathering
Climate Data
Land Use (including governance & ownership)
Research: Historical Timelines & Observa5ons
Land/Ocean Management Scenario
Evaluate Ecological & Economic Outcome
Climate Change Projec5on
Policy (Gov/Private)
Resource Conserva5on, Management & Governance
Strategy (Private, CBO, Gov)
Publica5ons & Future Research
January 2014 December 2015
Community Engagement, Scenarios & Model Development
Recommenda5on for Social-‐Ecological Resilience
Pau ~ Thanks for Listening! Ques5ons? Acknowledgment
Na5onal Science Founda5on and Project Team: Tamara Tick5n, Heather McMillen, Allen Friedlander, Kim Burner, Tom Giambelluca Stacy Jupitor, Lisa Mandle, Pua’ala Pascua, Natalie Kurashima, Rachel Dacks, Cheryl Scarton, Shimona Quazi, Jonatha
Giddens and many more folks
Alex Frost – Graduate Student University of Hawaii
Department of Urban and Regional Planning & University of Hawaii Economic Research Organiza5on (UHERO)
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