Download - AIS Capital Management LLC

Transcript
Page 1: AIS Capital Management LLC

AIS Capital Management LLCGold Strategy Presentation

For Presentation in Calendar Year 2010

AIS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCA Registered Investment Advisor187 Danbury Road, Suite 201Wilton, Connecticut 06897(203) 563-1180 [email protected]

Page 2: AIS Capital Management LLC

Definitions and Disclaimers

DefinitionsGold, Gold Bullion, Dollar Index, Government Bonds: The spot market price. (Source: CSI Data)Price Ratio: The spot market price of one market divided by the spot market price of another

DisclaimersAny decision to invest in any AIS product must be made solely on the information provided in the necessary documents to effect the transaction which will be provided upon request. All of the material presented here is either historical fact or AIS’s opinion of the future. As such, any characteristic of AIS products portrayed on an individual basis or in combinations with other AIS products or other more common traditional investments, including the ability of AIS products to mitigate volatility, declines in account value, or even make positive returns are historically based and may or may not continue into the future. One must invest in AIS products with the knowledge that any opinion presented is just that, an opinion of AIS and not a statement of fact. AIS is confident about its research and ability to continue to add investment value going forward and its principals back this belief by having sizable personal investments in AIS products, however, markets continually change and the ability for AIS to add value going forward is uncertain. In fact, it is possible that an investor may lose all of his or her investment in any AIS product either gradually or suddenly. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation.

Page 3: AIS Capital Management LLC

Contents

3

Page

AIS Capital Management 4AIS Gold Net Returns 5AIS Gold Strategy 6AIS Gold Strategy Equity Selection Process 7-9Declining World Gold Supply 10-13Economic Environment :Why Gold Now? 14-23Summary 24Biographies 25-26

Page 4: AIS Capital Management LLC

AIS Capital Management, LLC

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation.

Registration:Registered Investment Advisor (1992)

Featured Product:AIS Gold Fund LP

Investment Structure Available:Individualized Portfolios

4

Page 5: AIS Capital Management LLC

AIS Gold StrategyPerformance Net of All Fees

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation.

62.4%

-7.4%

67.4% 67.8%42.9%

-71.4%

189.5%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

ly R

etur

n (%

)

26%Annualized (since inception 12/31/2002)27%Compound Annual Return - 5 yr6%Compound Annual Return - 3 yr

5

Page 6: AIS Capital Management LLC

AIS Gold Strategy

Goals:Outperform U.S. gold equity indexes and gold bullion

Use leverage by combining futures positions and equity positionsAbility to be long or short precious metals futuresInvest in individual mining companiesProtect assets during gold market declines by being flat or short

To outpace inflation and avoid dilution of wealthRising market: long futures and equities, leverage available, no hedgesDeclining market: hedges in excess of positions creating short exposure

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation. 6

Page 7: AIS Capital Management LLC

AIS Gold Strategy: Equity SelectionEquity Selection Process:

Fundamental selection of individual companiesScreen universe of mining companies for minimal hedge activitySelect companies based on numerous criteria including size, quality and location of reserves among other factorsAdjust holdings between companies as relative valuations shift

Discretion to choose net exposure through use of hedgesPortfolio exposure ranges from 300% net long to 100% net short

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation. 7

Page 8: AIS Capital Management LLC

Opportunities in Gold ResearchBottom-up, fundamental research is criticalAIS focuses solely on companies (among other variables):

In “safe haven” areas In mining-friendly jurisdictionsWith higher-grade depositsWho do not hedge productionWith low production costs per ounce, to maximize cash flow

Portfolio companies must have attractive valuations

8

Majors Range AIS At PurchaseEnterprise Value To Company Reserves & Resources

$200-$500+ $40-$200

Page 9: AIS Capital Management LLC

Index of Junior Mining Companies

S&P TSE CDNX Composite Index

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

9/30

/01

1/30

/02

5/30

/02

9/30

/02

1/30

/03

5/30

/03

9/30

/03

1/30

/04

5/30

/04

9/30

/04

1/30

/05

5/30

/05

9/30

/05

1/30

/06

5/30

/06

9/30

/06

1/30

/07

5/30

/07

9/30

/07

1/30

/08

5/30

/08

9/30

/08

1/30

/09

5/30

/09

9/30

/09

1/30

/10

5/30

/10

9

Page 10: AIS Capital Management LLC

The number of major gold discoveries made per year is shrinkingNew finds are significantly smaller than earlier onesAverage gold grade of these discoveries has declined, and is now half of what it was in 1980In addition to this decline in discovery quality, overall productivity is slipping: global mine production has been steadily dropping since 2001

Declining World Gold Supply

10

Page 11: AIS Capital Management LLC

Major Gold Discoveries: 1997-2007

11

Page 12: AIS Capital Management LLC

Declining Gold Discovery Grade

12

Page 13: AIS Capital Management LLC

Declining World Supply from Mine Production

13

Page 14: AIS Capital Management LLC

14

Economic Environments

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimer” page included in this presentation.

I II III most likely scenario going forward

Low/declining inflationStrong economic growth

Deflation/liquidity trapEconomic contraction

Quantitative Easing Creates DistortionsDepreciating currencyAccelerating raw material pricesProfit margins under pressure

Examples:U.S. 1950-1965

1982-2000Japan: 1970-1989

Examples:U.S. 1930sJapan 1990s

Examples:U.S. 1970sGermany 1920sArgentina 2000s

Characteristics:Expanding profit margins.Expanding P/E ratios.Declining interest rates.Leveraged reward.Strong dollar.

Characteristics:Profits non-existent.Financial defaults.Preference for liquidity.Balance sheet de-leveraging.

Characteristics:Operating profits squeezed by costs.Rising physical asset value.Hoarding and inventory profits common.Leverage rewarded, but cash flows less certain.Shrinking P/E ratios.Weak dollar.

Investment opportunities:EquitiesLong-term bondsLeveraged buy-outsVenture capital

Investment opportunities:CashHigh quality bondsShort selling

Investment opportunities:Select equities (pricing power)GoldPhysical commoditiesSelect short selling:

DollarEquities w/limited pricing power.

Page 15: AIS Capital Management LLC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

12/3

1/83

12/3

1/84

12/3

1/85

12/3

1/86

12/3

1/87

12/3

1/88

12/3

1/89

12/3

1/90

12/3

1/91

12/3

1/92

12/3

1/93

12/3

1/94

12/3

1/95

12/3

1/96

12/3

1/97

12/3

1/98

12/3

1/99

12/3

1/00

12/3

1/01

12/3

1/02

12/3

1/03

12/3

1/04

12/3

1/05

12/3

1/06

12/3

1/07

12/3

1/08

12/3

1/09

12/3

1/10

billi

ons

Chart courtesy of AIS Futures Management LLCData Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Adjusted Monetary Base(Not Seasonally Adjusted) Through 12/31/2009

Y2K 9/11

15

Page 16: AIS Capital Management LLC

1

10

100

1000

1720

1740

1760

1780

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

March 31, 1951

Prior to 1951, price inflation occurred during wars and other times of shortage. After the event ended, prices deflated back to where they had been. Since 1951, our government has fought deflation at the cost of inflation.

The Impact of Government on InflationProducer Prices (1720- December 2009)

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation. 16

Page 17: AIS Capital Management LLC

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

From 2001 – 2004 gold’s price strength was primarily tied to dollar weakness. However, since 2005 gold has been strong versus all major currencies. This may be signaling a more difficult environment for all financial assets.

Gold Priced in EurosData Through 12/31/09

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation. 17

Page 18: AIS Capital Management LLC

-102030405060708090

100110120130140150

1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Ratio Chart: Gold Bullion / U.S. Treasury Bond3/20/1968 – 12/31/2009

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation. 18

Page 19: AIS Capital Management LLC

Gold / S&P 500 IndexThrough December 31, 2009

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation.

Gold / S&P500 Indexto 12/31/09

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

0.15

0.35

0.55

0.75

0.95

1.15

1.35

1.55

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Rising Relative Price (Gold Outperforms)

19

Page 20: AIS Capital Management LLC

Federal and Agency/GSE DebtHeld by Foreigners

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Fed Debt HBF Agency/GSE HBF

$4.5 trillion

$3.95 trillion

20

Page 21: AIS Capital Management LLC

U.S. Gold Reserves versus Federal and Agency Debt Held by Foreigners

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

4,500.0

5,000.0

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

Fed Debt HBF Agency/GSE HBF US Gold Res in $ US Gld % DHBF

21

Page 22: AIS Capital Management LLC

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

World Official Gold Reserves Relative to World Currency Reserves

Band (Dashed Lines): Uses World Official Reserves at Market Prices (1971-1980) Relative to World Currency Reserves.

Band after 1980 Indicates Price Level of Gold Necessary to Support Foreign Currency Reserves, if 1971-1980

Relationship Reestablished.

22

Page 23: AIS Capital Management LLC

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

U.S. Treasury Gold Value Relative to Foreign Held U.S. Government Debt

Band (Dashed Lines): Uses U.S. Treasury Gold Holdings at Market Prices (1971-1980) Relative to Total U.S. Government

Debt Held by Foreigners. Band after 1980 Indicates Price Level of Gold Necessary to Support Foreign Held Debt, if

1971-1980 Relationship Reestablished.

23

Page 24: AIS Capital Management LLC

Gold Strategy Summary

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation.

Investment in Gold and Silver Equities and FuturesExposure Ranges From 100% Short to 300% LongReal Added Value in Equity SelectionInflation ProtectionStill In Early Stages of Gold’s Bull Market

24

Page 25: AIS Capital Management LLC

John R. Hummel, Partner, President and CIO , has 40 years of investment experience. Prior to the formation of AIS, Mr. Hummel was a partner of Cowen & Co.(1990-1993) where he managed equity, balanced, and fixed income portfolios for the Asset Management Division, a partner of Matuschka &Co.(1987-1990), and a managing director of Mitchell Hutchins Asset Management (1977-1987), where he managed equity, balanced and fixed income portfolios for Fortune 500 retirement plans, the Federal Reserve retirement plan and high net worth individuals. Mr. Hummel holds a B.S. degree in Investment Management from Northwestern University(1967) and serves on the boards of the North Atlantic region of Young Life, and Tyndale Seminary.

Bradley C. Stern, Partner, Portfolio Risk Manager and CCO has 19 years experience in investments with emphasis in statistics and capital markets theory. Prior to the formation of AIS, Mr. Stern worked with Mr. Hummel at Cowen & Co. in the asset management department. Mr. Stern holds a B.B.A. from Emory University(1988).

Robert F. Ward, Partner, Portfolio Manager, has 29 years of investment consulting and investment experience. Prior to joining AIS he was a Senior Vice-President, Investments with Morgan Stanley (2000-2005), Paine Webber (1988-2000), and Kidder Peabody, Inc. (1983-1988). His business relationship with AIS and John Hummel has spanned over two decades. Bob holds a B.A. in History from Metropolitan State College.

Nancy Stuebe, Partner, PM / Equity Analyst, has 23 years of investment experience. Prior to joining AIS she was an Analyst at Gabelli Asset Management. Ms. Stuebe was also an analyst at Weiss, Peck & Greer and Advent Capital Management. Ms. Stuebe holds a B.A. in Economics and English form Wellesley College (1985) and an M.B.A. from Columbia University.

Michael J. Benenson, Partner, Director of Sales and Marketing, has 24 years of experience in the securities industry. Prior to joining AIS he was Chief Operating Officer of P.A.W. Capital Partners, advisor for several long/short hedge funds. Mr. Benenson was an Executive Managing Director and Head of US Equity Sales for GKM/Harris Nesbitt (a division of the Bank of Montreal). Prior to his 10 years at GKM/Harris Nesbitt, Mr. Benenson spent 10 years as a Senior Vice President of institutional sales at Lazard Freres & Company. Mr. Benenson holds a B.A. from Dartmouth College (1984).

Linna Ru, Partner, CFO, has 25 years of experience in computer programming and analysis. Before joining AIS, Mrs. Ru was a computer programmer for Texlnnova Company. Mrs. Ru holds a M.S. in Computer Science from WuHan University (1985) and a M.S. in Applied Mathematics from ToledoUniversity (1993).

Roger A. Wilkin, Partner, Client Services, has 36 years experience in both corporate and non-profit organizations. Prior to joining AIS, Mr. Wilkin served as National Director of Development and as Regional Director of the New York metropolitan area for Young Life. Prior to that he was with AT&T Bell Laboratories from 1969-81. Mr. Wilkin holds a B.S. in electrical engineering (Magna Cum Laude) Union College, Masters in Operations Research, Cornell University, and Masters of Divinity, New Brunswick Reformed Seminary.

Biographies

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation. 25

Page 26: AIS Capital Management LLC

Robert A. Barbieri, Partner, CAO, has 37 years of investment management experience. Prior to joining AIS, he was a vice president for Wright Investors’ Service performing economic and securities analysis and product development while supervising composite performance accuracy and compliance. He received a B.A. from Southern Connecticut State University and is a member of the Hartford Society of Security Analysts (HSSA) and the Association for Investment Management and Research (AIMR).

Jennifer Stanley, Investment Consultant, has more than 11 years of investment marketing experience. Prior to joining AIS, Ms. Stanley was a financial consultant for a brokerage firm in the Virgin Islands. Her experience also includes management of marketing and client services for a systematic CTA and marketing for a large mutual fund firm. Jennifer holds a BA in Journalism from the University of New Hampshire (1988).

Pallavi Moorthy, Programming and Operational Support, has 8 years experience in web design, programming, and market research. She managed an inventory management trading system for IBM and has done web development at AT&T. Ms. Moorthy has an MBA in Marketing and Finance from Pace University (2005), an MIS degree from Pace University (2002) and a BA from Smith College (2001).

Jarvis R. Roque, Controller,, graduated from The Pennsylvania State University, Smeal College of Business with a B.S. in Accounting and Finance in 2006 where he earned Dean's List honors. Prior to AIS, he received leadership training through the LIFT Discipleship Program, NY (2007) and served as Assistant Recruiter at New England Wealth Strategies (MetLife affiliate), NY (2004).

Lu-Ann Roth, IT and Administration, has 18 years of corporate experience beginning with administrative support and ending with over 10 years of information technology management . Prior to joining AIS, Mrs. Roth spent 15 years with GE Capital Corp where she provided leadership in information technology and LAN management.

Marie Constantino, Administrative Operations, holds a B.A. in Political Science and is a Certified, Licensed Real Estate Salesperson,. As well she possesses multiple interdisciplinary certifications and diplomas, including in Web Design & Development. She is active in her community, having served as Justice of the Peace, Conservation / Inland / Wetlands Commissioner, and Founding Commissioner of a Town Housing Partnership / Affordable Housing Committee.

Other Contacts:Auditors:

Arthur F. Bell, Jr & Associates, L.L.C.McGladrey & Pullen CPAMarcal Systems (Offshore Administrator)Attorney: Sidley Austin LLP

Biographies

The material presented here is only relevant when combined with the “Definitions and Disclaimers” page included in this presentation. 26