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AIM Institute Leadership Academy
Seminar on IT Innovation and Managing New Technologies in a World of iPads, Consumerization and Cloud Computing
Part 2
Dr. George Royce Ph.D, PMPUniversity of Nebraska at [email protected] or [email protected]: http://roycesite.com/george/index.htmlAlso on LinkedIN and Facebook
AgendaTopic Time
Lunch 12:10 – 1:00
Teams present POC and Pilot plans to the group 1:00 – 1:25
Team Activity: Teams discuss technology or services important to your company today which is likely to disappear in 5 years
1:25 – 1:35
Discuss Disruptive Innovations and Impact on IT 1:35 – 1:50
Team Activity: Teams discuss how companies or IT departments within companies embrace disruptions or fail as a result of industry disruptions. Teams present results
1:50 – 2:20
Discuss Scenario Planning and the value in business and IT planning 2:20 – 2:40
Break 2:40 - 2:50
Team Activity: Teams develop a short story about a what life will be like in 10 years for a major “actor” in a company.
2:50 – 3:30
Teams present their story and their implications. 3:30 – 3:45
Summary and Wrap Up 3:45 – 4:00
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Dr. George Royce3
• Disruption• Compete against Non-Consumption• Supply Chain Disruption• Target the Job not the Customer• Catch the Tide of Decommoditzation• Show the video: How to Spot Disruptive
Innovation Opportunities
More resources: https://docs.google.com/document/d/12chpKOZjqB1O_wk4TVYHmROcW6hF1vMcT6BocCC9gyI/edit
Innovation Tools and Techniques
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Sustaining Technologies and Services
• The technologies that great companies continue to make better and better.
• These are mainstream technologies and services that most large customers buy and use.
• The bulk of the revenue of a company is used to support the sale and service of these sustaining technologies.
• Examples:– For IBM it is the Mainframe– For DEC it was the Minicomputer– For retail in the sixties it was Department Stores – For Airlines it was the hub based airline system like United.
The ever popular - Cash Cow! – Name other companies and cash cows. What is a cash cow for Dell and HP?
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• These technologies and services are usually smaller, simpler, cheaper and less capable than competition, at least initially. (think of early personal computers).
• Early in disruptive technologies, only fringe customers in small markets can use these technologies. However, later the markets will grow.
• Initially, mainstream customers and shareholders want a company to continue to develop and enhance the sustaining technologies and services and avoid the risky markets and newer disruptive technologies.
• Disruptive Technologies have features that can be a competitive advantage in the future.
• Often these are “good enough” technologies.• Examples:
• For Apple it was the Mac and later the iPhone and IPad• For IBM and Compaq it was the PC.• For Wal-Mart it was the suburban mart verses department store,• For Airlines it was the point to point model used by Southwest and others.• Microsoft SharePoint is being Disrupted by Box.Net!
Disruptive Technologies and Services
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Source: Clayton M. Christensen and updated by G Royce
Examples of Disruptive Technologies and Services
Yesterday Today Tomorrow
Department Stores Wal-Mart Internet Retail
Mainframe/Mini and Dumb Terminal
Windows Interface Mobile Touch Interfaces
Delta Southwest Air Taxis
Xerox Canon Zink
IBM Microsoft Linux/Apple/Google
Cullinet Oracle Salesforce
Land Grant Universities
Community Colleges Online Universities
Records CD’s MP3
Team Activity 4: Brainstorming on technology likely to disappear in 5 years that you company depends today.
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• Directions: 1. Each Team brainstorms on the question: “What technology or
service that your company or institution depends on today is LIKELY TO NOT EXIST IN 5 YEARS? What are you doing about this now?”
2. Prioritize the list based risk to of it disappearing and current value to companies or other institutions.
3. You all have 5 minutes to identify these new products or services.
• Each team present their findings.
Compete Against Non-Consumption
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• Non consumers – people who are inhibited by certain buyers from acquiring your products or services.
• Constraints keeping people as non consumers• Skill related constraints• Wealth related constraints• Access Related Constraints• Time Related Constraints
• The aspect we will look at is skill and time related constraints as it relates to ease of use. Making things easier can to use without adding functionality can greatly expand a market
• Question: Name products/services that succeeded because they were easier to use, cheaper, easier to access or saved time.
Supply Chain Disruption
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Dell
Small boards
Mother board
Assembly
Supply chain
Design
Brand
Design
Supply chain
Assembly
Mother board
Asus
In B2B markets, the buyer’s job-to-be-done typically is not to enhance capability, but to reduce cost or improve ROA. This creates opportunities to disrupt from the bottom of the supply chain.
Brand
Source: Clayton Christianson
Target the Job, Not the Customer
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“The customer rarely buys what the company thinks it is selling him” - Peter Drucker
• Question: What jobs does your customer want your product or service to do? What new jobs could you or your products do for your customer?
Catch the Tide of Decommoditization
• Decommoditization means going against the natural tide of entropy: The tendency for our products and services to settle into a watered-down version that seems safe and caters to the broadest marketplace.
• An example is taking the lowly chair and decommoditizing it. Herman Miller was able to do this.
• Another is Glacéau Vitamin water.
• Question: Give examples of products you use have become commodities.
• Question: What are examples of products and services in the IT industry that have been decommoditized?
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Process Innovation - Background• Innovation - The term innovation means a new way of doing something. It
may refer to incremental, radical, and revolutionary changes in thinking, products, processes, or organizations. A distinction is typically made between Invention, an idea made manifest, and innovation, ideas applied successfully. (The Truth about Innovation. Mckeown 2008)
• Incremental innovation refers to simple changes or adjustments in existing products, services, or processes
• Continuous improvement, what in Japanese is called kaizen, is the process of relentlessly trying to find ways to improve and enhance a company’s products and processes from design through assembly, sales, and service
• A breakthrough innovation is an innovation in a product, process, technology, or the cost associated with it that represents a quantum leap forward in one or more of those ways .
• My experience at Mutual of Omaha.• Are process changes are transforming your company?
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Dr. George Royce
Why Care About Process Improvement?
“Technology is simply a vehicle for carrying out processes.
The power of your company is contained in the processes themselves.
The most valuable opportunities for establishing competitive differentiation are in how a product or service is created, sold, delivered, and supported.”
– Jack Welch, former CEO of GE
“If you can’t describe what you are doing as a process, you don’t know what you’re doing.”
– W. Edwards Deming
Overview of a Kaizen Event to improve a Business or IT Process
Dr. George Royce
Define ProcessProblem
Define ProcessProblem
Identify Waste in Current Process
Identify Waste in Current Process
Conduct Gap & Root Cause Analysis
Conduct Gap & Root Cause Analysis
Measure Current Performance
Measure Current Performance
Define Should-BeProcess
Define Should-BeProcess
Develop 60 Day Action Plan
Develop 60 Day Action Plan
Improve Current Process
(This may include multiple experiments
before implementing)
Improve Current Process
(This may include multiple experiments
before implementing)
Standardize Operating Procedures
Standardize Operating Procedures
Expose ProblemsExpose Problems
Find theRoot CauseFind the
Root Cause
ImplementChanges
ImplementChanges
StandardizeWork
StandardizeWork
Do
It
Do
It
Source: Wyndham
Develop Measurements
for Success
Why Improve the process before a company should invest in further automation?
Team Activity 5: Brainstorming on New, Innovative Products Processes and Services IT Can Provide Your
Company to Achieve their Goals?
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• Directions: 1. List A: Each Team brainstorms on the question: “What are new
services, processes and technology that you can bring to your business that meets unmet need or job that now can be done easier or faster that your company would be willing to pay.” Be sure to list the new product, process or service and the job it is doing for the company.
2. List B: Each Team builds a list of processes you believe could benefit from a Kaizen Event BEFORE further automation.
3. Prioritize the lists based on expected value to your company. 4. Build your table on a couple of flip chart pages5. You all have 20 minutes to identify these new products or services.
• Each team present their findings.
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Engaging Your Business Partners in Innovation Planning
1. Use Sources like the Futurist and Gartner to develop a look into the future and review this with your Business Partners. See the following pages as samples.
2. Invite your partners to co-author simple one page about what life will be like for key business “actors” in 10 years.
3. Consider key scenario stories about impacts to your business or technology.
4. Use the above as a part of the business/IT planning process this year for 2014.
Why Stories?• Stories are universal. They bridge many divides —
including cultural, linguistic, and age-related.• Stories mirror human thought. Humans think in
narrative structures, and we remember facts and statistics far better when they're presented to us in story form.
• Stories shape our identities. The stories we tell about ourselves shape who we are.
• Our shared stories define our social group. The stories we share shape and define social connections in our life.
• “Over the years I have become convinced that we learn best--and change--from hearing stories that strike a chord within us” John Kottor
1704/18/23
Energy and Environment• World is not about to run out of oil, but consumption will increase• Environmentally safe extraction methods will evolve, but could be
discarded in a prolonged crisis• Oil will stabilize at $65 per barrel, with temporary spikes above
$100 due to unrest• Alternative energy sources will supply 20-30% of our energy needs,
limiting oil consumption• Environmental concern is growing, but industrial development
trumps these concerns in many parts of the world• Water shortages are a growing problem, which could inhibit
economic growth and force mass migrations– US could spend $1T to upgrade decaying infrastructure
• Recycling and waste-to-energy plants become viable alternative to dumping garbage
• Species Extinction and loss of biodiversity grows due to destruction of natural habitats– 50% of medicines come from natural resources
• Urbanization continues, aggravating environmental problems1804/18/23
Energy and Environment2010 2015 2020 2025 2030+
Energy and Environment
Nuclear fusionDesalinization Water Wars
30-40% of Energy Needs supplied by Non-Carbon
Sources
Oil Consumption @ 97M Barrels Daily
Oil Consumption @ 118M Barrels Daily
New Discoveries Increase Known Oil Reserves
Oil Prices High Enough to Justify New Development
Environmentally Safe Oil Development
Global Warming
30% of Arable Land is Salty
Developing Countries Close Their Dumps to
Foreign Waste
48% Live in Cities10 Megacities
60% Live in Cities60 Megacities
Recycling & Waste-to-Energy Plants
Precision Farming
Genetically Modified Organisms
1904/18/23
Transportation and Space• Intelligence is being built into cars and planes making them
safer and more efficient• Automated highways systems will emerge to safely move
increasing numbers of vehicles – Convoys or platoons outside of metro areas– Driverless cars are being tested– Trucks relegated to car-free lanes
• Hybrid cars gain significant market share• Hypersonic planes emerge to reduce intercontinental travel
times– Mach 10 planes are being tested
• Airlines abandon hub and spoke model– Point-to-point, with the last 100-150 miles covered by high-
speed rail systems• Interest in space tourism will grow and become more
affordable2004/18/23
Transportation & Space2010 2015 2020 2025 2030+
Transportation Automated Highways
Hybrid Cars Automated Vehicles
Fuel Cell Cars
Intelligent Cars Hypersonic Planes Maglev Trains
Hub & Spoke Replaced
Space Space Tourism Moon Base Men on Mars
High-Speed Rail
Intelligent Planes
2104/18/23
Information and Consumer Technology• Technological obsolescence is accelerating
– Today’s knowledge is only 1% of what will be available in 2050
– Design and marketing cycles measured in weeks not years• Computers becoming part of the environment rather
than just tools for a specific task– Consumerism continues to drive technology into
businesses• Artificial intelligence, data mining, and virtual reality
enable assimilation and analysis of data to solve problems that are beyond today’s capabilities– Human beings reduced to managers
• New technology and automation continues to improve the efficiency of many industries and cut product costs, but retards job creation– Industries face much tighter competition2204/18/23
Information & Consumer Technology2010 2015 2020 2025 2030+
Information & Consumer Technology
Augmented Reality
Virtual Worlds
Ensemble Interactions
Emotion Detection
Head Mounted Displays
Digital Magazines
Quantum Computing
E-book Readers
Micro-electromechanical
Systems
Smart Fabrics & Wearable Computers
Speech-to-speech Translation
Chip Implants
Mobile Transphones
Computer-brain Interface
Mobile WLAN Access Points
Rich Presence
Presence
Speech Recognition
Biometrics
Tablets as Information Consumers
Tablets as Full Computers
3D TVs and Displays
Gesture Recognition
Mobile High-Def Link
G.Hn Home Network Standard
WiFi Remote Display
Home Servers
Broadband Connected TVs
Bio-Acoustic Sensing
SaaS
Mobile App Stores
Video Search
External Cloud Computing
Internal Cloud Computing
4G
Consumer Generated
Media
Social Analytics
4th Gen Collaboration
Virtual Assistants
64-bit Windows Servers
64-bit Clients
5th Gen Collaboration
Simultaneous Edit
Cloud Email
HTML5
2304/18/23
Manufacturing and Robots• Nanotechnology emerges as a trillion dollar
marketplace, enabling more powerful computers, medical treatments, and development of new materials from scratch
• Smart robots emerge as artificial intelligence matures– Military and other high-risk occupations and tasks– Household helpers– Ability to perform most human tasks, except where
human dexterity is required– Humans compete with robots for jobs
• Mobile robots eventually have human dexterity2404/18/23
Manufacturing & Robots2010 2015 2020 2025 2030+
Manufacturing and Robotics
Mobile Robots Match Human Dexterity
Nanotechnology
Smart RobotsMass Customization
Micro Machines
Designed Materials
Computers Capable of Most Human Tasks that Do Not Require Hands
2504/18/23
E-commerce and Business• Technology enabled outsourcing, and that trend continues
– Expands to include R&D and management jobs– All companies are in effect multinational and are now exposed to risks
like terrorism and unrest• Consumers demand social/environmental responsibility from
companies and each other– Litigation risk increases worldwide– More government intervention likely– Greater transparency in operations
• Mergers and acquisitions continue– No one is too large to be acquired, with mid-sized companies
squeezed out– Technology enables boutique operations to compete
• Service becomes the sole differentiator as product sales move online and become commodities
• Most new job creation occurs in service industries– Typically lower paying– Middle class may become obsolete as robots displace more workers
2604/18/23
E-commerce & Business2010 2015 2020 2025 2030+
E-Commerce and Business
Outsourcing of Secondary Functions
Sustained Economic Growth, Restrained Only by Our Deficit
Outsourcing of Management and R&D
US Loses Leadership in R&D and Patents
Asian Common Market
Globally Integrated Economy
E-preneurs
Social Influence More Effective than Traditional
Marketing
Virtually Everything’s Online – Service is
Differentiator
Children as Consumers
Lower-paying Service Jobs Fastest Growing Economic Sector
Middle Class Disappears
Computers Capable of Most Human Tasks that Do Not Require Hands
Intergenerational Competition for Jobs
Employers Burdened with Accommodating
Immigrants in Workplace
Tourism Comprises 14% of Global Workforce
2704/18/23
Medicine• Technology advances extend the human life span
to 100 years, with mid-life vigor– Designer drugs, aided by computer modeling– Artificial limbs and organs– Cloned tissues– Genetic therapy– Nanotechnology– Advances could be offset by the obesity epidemic
• Healthcare costs continue to increase at rates higher than general inflation
• Costs could be offset by technologies such as online medical records, computerized diagnostics, virtual exams, etc.
2804/18/23
Medicine2010 2015 2020 2025 2030+
Medicine Life Span = 100Rapid Growth in Products/Service for
Elderly Decline in Products/Service for
Elderly as Health Increases
Home Health Monitoring
Cancer Cured
Artificial Organs Genetic Therapy Child Traits
Emphasis on Preventative
Medicine
Worldwide Obesity Crisis
Lifestyle Disorders in Developing Countries
Personalized Treatment
Remote Operations
Grown OrgansTelemedicine
Nanotechnology
2904/18/23
Careers• Service jobs with half the pay have replaced the well-paid positions
in manufacturing and transportation. Educated service jobs (medicine, law, IT, etc.) continue to pay well. Productivity gains are made through automation, at the expense of human workers.– Nations become polarized between “have lots” and “have nots,” with
relatively few “have enoughs”• People will have ten or more different careers, often learning for
the next career during their current career; learning is continuous• Two wages are required for survival, but only may be actively
working as the other is on sabbatical learning for their next career• Career specialization increases, with many becoming independent
contractors; specialized careers for generalists emerge to coordinate contractors.
• Telecommuting continues to grow as employees could be located anywhere in the world
3004/18/23
Career2010 2015 2020 2025 2030+
Career Skills Are Most Important Factor in Economic
Success
Teacher Shortage in US
Schools
Life Long Learning
Critical
Virtual Education
Average of 5 Careers
Average of 10 Careers
Increased Adult
Education
80% of Companies Worldwide Have Telecommuters
Most Employees Telecommute 40-50%
of the time
3104/18/23
Government• More capabilities are placed online as governments
struggle to control costs• Overhauls on Social Security, Medicare, and healthcare are
inevitable• Expect more government involvement if the number of
“have nots” grows– Reduced workweek to provide more jobs
• States continue to struggle and will try to reduce employee benefits– Some states may declare bankruptcy
• Aging population will place more social demands on government (e.g., adult daycare, transportation)
• Our infrastructure is aging and may require significant investments
• Bipartisianship may end as millennials take control3204/18/23
Government2010 2015 2020 2025 2030+
Government E-government Workweek ReducedSocial Security Overhaul
Medicare Overhaul
Limited National Healthcare
Limitations on City/State/Federal Worker Benefits
Bipartisanship Ends as Millennials Take
Control
Retirement Benefits 20% of GDP
Some States/Cities Declare Bankruptcy
Demand for Senior Social Services
3304/18/23
Population & Societal• Overall population growth rate is declining, but
population likely exceeds 9B by 2050– Number could be conservative, depending on medical
advances– Urbanization continues with 60% of the people living
in 60 megacities (5M+ people) by 2050– Workforce is declining in developed nations
• Immigration increases to fill jobs• Backlashes against immigration increase
– Western values are extending into undeveloped nations through the Internet, which will be perceived as cultural imperialism in conservative, undeveloped countries
• Terrorism and violence will likely increase
3404/18/23
Population & Societal2010 2015 2020 2025 2030+
Population and Societal
Worldwide Population Growth
below 1%
Worldwide Population Growth
below 0.5%
New Growth: 40& Africa and 30%
Muslim
Workforce in Developed World Shrinking at 1%
Immigrants Fill Growing Percentage
of Jobs
6% of Worldwide Population 65 or Older
10+ % of Worldwide Population 65 or Older
US 25% Latino and 8% Asian
Immigration Redistributes World
Population
Backlashes as Immigration
Increases
Perceived Cultural Imperialism Causes
Backlashes
48% Live in Cities10 Megacities
60% Live in Cities60 Megacities
3504/18/23
Team Activity 6: Build A story draft that you can share with the business to help with your Business
and IT Planning
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• Directions: 1. Read the story “A Day in the Life of Project People in 2025.”2. Work in teams and select an actor in the business as the
“protagonist” in the story. This could be sales person, product developer, customer service agent, etc…
3. Write a one page story which paints a picture to describe what life will be like for this employee of the company in 10 years.
4. Create a list of implications5. What is the role of technology for this employee?6. You will have 20 minutes to create a draft of the story or at least
an outline of the story and a list of implications.7. Each Team presents your story to the class.
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• Managing new and emerging technology is like managing a portfolio of opportunities.
• Engage with your business partners to joint build a technology opportunity inventory.
• Understanding the risk tolerance of your company is important before beginning any pilots of new or emerging technologies.
• Consumerization is a reality and we need to deal with it as IT Professionals.
• Engage employees to discussions about how new technologies can effectively be used in the business and how company data can be handled securely.
• For personally owned devices, employees need to take responsibility for their use of the technology and costs associated with the technology.
• Look for ways to reach the non-consumers in your organization perhaps with tools offered traditionally or using cloud based services that you can help them securely acquire and use.
• Use the power of stories to brainstorm about the future and where you and your company should focus in IT and business resources for the coming year.
Summary
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