Uncertainty—in the economy, society, politics—has become so great as to render futile, if
not counterproductive, the kind
of planning most companies still practice: forecasting
based on probabilities
“
”
Self Perpetuating Risk
BigPlans
BigBudgets
BigSystems
HighRisk
Command & Control Behaviours
Cost Of Change is High
ConstrainsInnovation
Increased Management Overhead
Traditional Governance Reduces the Capability to Innovate
New Ideas
Products
Long time to marketBottleneck of ideas
Strategic force field which limits ideas internally
Jeremy Hope, 2003. Beyond Budgeting: How Managers Can Break Free from the Annual Performance Trap. Edition. Harvard Business Review Press.
Investment StrategiesHigh Probability
Low Probability
Low Impact
Large Organisations
High Impact
Start Ups
Larry Downes is co-author, with Paul Nunes, of Big Bang Disruption: Strategy in the Age of Devastating Innovation
Traditional Models Are ChangingBig Bang Market Adoption
Roger’s Market Segments
Key Questions
Can you identify a core user problem in a target market?
Are there real customers who get value from your concept?Is there a viable business model for this product?
Can you demonstrate Product/Market Fit or validated business model?
Expanding market reach, improving product performance and outcomes?
Continuing to provide value, retain customers, deliver on outcomes?
What residual value can be gleaned from the business?
Idea Explore Validate Grow Sustain Retire
PLC Governance Criteria
● Accessibility● Security● Quality● Efficacy
● Product Management● Operations● Safeguarding● Marketing & Brand
● Sales● Legal● Customer Experience● Many More +
QuarterlyHypotheses
Product Metrics
£?Strategic Growth
Hypotheses
Political
Economic
Social
Technological
Legal
Environmental
Product Lifecycle Principles More Ideas, More Bets, More Tests
New Ideas
Not all the ideas survive but all the learnings are recorded
All the ideas are quickly captured and tested
One to three months turnaround
Walls are pervious allowing ideas into and out of the company
Open Innovation
5 Key Take Aways
● Agility is an organisational shift● Bet small, don’t bet big upfront● Certainty is a fallacy● Diversity is key to innovation● Environment is shifting rapidly
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