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Lin k in g Food , Far m er s and
M a r k e t sSi r Gor don Con w ay ,
Pro fesso r o f I n t e rna t i ona lDev e l opmen t ,
Ag r i cu l t u r e f o r I m p act ,I m per i a l Co l l ege Lond on
Globa l Donor Pla t f o r m fo rRu r a l Deve lopm ent AGA,
The Net he r lands,
Januar y 3 1 st , 20 13
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Recurring food price spikes
About 1 billion people
(1 in 6 of the worlds population)
are chronically hungry
We have to increase food production by70-100% by 2050
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St un t i ng l in k ed t o ov e r 3 .5 m deat hs unde r f i v es
St un t i ng has la rge l y i r r ev ers i b le l ong - t e rm
e f f ect s on hea lt h and dev e lopm en t
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DEMAND
Ris ingpopu la t i ons
Ris ing percap i t a
i nc om es
G r ow ing
d e m a n d f o rl i ves tockp r oduc t s
G r ow ing
d e m a n d f o rb io fue ls
SUPPLY
I m p act o fc l im a t echange
I nc r eas ingw at er &
land scarc i t y
Slow ing o fp r oduc t i v i t y
inc reases
Ris ing fu e l &fe r t i l i se r
pr icessp ikes
CONTRI BUTETO HUNGER
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M ea t consum p t i on r i sesw i t h p er cap i t a in co m e
Rise in Meat Con su m p t ion
Source: FAO,2009
!
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Average
Ann u a l MaxTem p > 3 0 0C
#(%+%&"'$$"#'&$#'!'""##"&(%'*"'#'%#$&
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Russia Se ver e h e at w a ve i n 2 0 1 0 Doub led Moscow s dea th
r a t e 3 0 % o f g r a in cr o p s lo st t o b u r n in gPak is tan
W o r st f l oo d s i n 8 0 y e ar s Ki l l ed o v er 1 6 0 0 p e o p le Su b m er g e d 1 / 5 t h o f t h e co u n t r y , i n clu d i n g
1 4 % o f Pa k i st a n s cu l t i v a t e d l an d
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Mr s. N am ar u n da
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3
2 31 4
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Th e r e i s n o t m u ch m o r e n ewarab le land ava i lab le
W e h a ve t o i n t en s i f y
Mo r e w i t h LessGr eat er p r odu ct i v i t y bu t sm al ler
en v i r o n m en t a l f o o t p r i n t
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I ncr eased y i el ds o r p r oduct i on
On t h e sam e am o u n t o f l an d W i t h l ess w at er Less fe r t i l i se r s Less p est ic ides Low er em ission s o f Gr een h ou se Gases
I ncr eased n at u r a l cap i t a l& env i r onm en t a l ser v i ces
Gr eat e r r esi l i ence
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Use eco lo g ica l p r in cip les t odesign ag r i cu l t u r a l p r act i ces
e.g.
- A g r o f o r e st r y
- I n t eg r at ed Pest
Man ag em en t ( I PM)
- Or gan i c f a rm ing
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/,0'#""&-
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Pl an t s m o r e n u t r i t i ou s ca r b o h y d r at e & p r o t e i n m icron u t r i en t s ( Vi t A , i r on , zi nc)
Plan t s m o re r esi l i en t t o pes t s an d d iseases cl im a t e chang e
Plan t s m or e ef f i ci en t a t co n v e r t i n g su n l i g h t t o f o o d t ak i n g u p n i t r o g en f r o m t h e at m o sp h er e u si n g w at er
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Mont y Jones
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$5 00 m i l l ion l ossesa year i n Ugand a
Academ ia Sin icap r o v i d ed sw eet
p o t a t o g en e Successfu l ly
t r a n sf er r ed t obananas
I n Ug an d a n f i e l dt r i a l s
Ent i re lyg o v er n m en t f u n d e d
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Uns tab le & un p r ed i ct ab le govern m en t po l ici es Techn o log ies ( eg . seeds ) no t app r op r ia te o r t oo
r i s ky
High t r ansact i on cost s Monopo ly p ow er o f l oca l t r ader s, dealer s and
lende rs
Out pu t p r i ces t oo l ow High t r anspo r t cost s Farm ing w i t h ou t bus iness goa ls
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Good gov ern ance An app r op r i at e enab l ing
e n v i r o n m e n t
Bu t t h e y d o n o t h a v e t o b e p er f ect
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##"#%%")#('#"#%%.
Rural Economy
Farm Household in thelocal community
Seed Co
Agrodealer
FertiliserCo
Banks formicrocredit
Localtrader
Connectivity
Regional trade
National trade
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Reliable quality Accessible Affordable With subsidies or microcredit Plus extension advice And microinsurance
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Vict o r ia Seed s
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I n p u t Mar k et s
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Fa ir , e f f i c i en t , t r anspar en t Accessib le Choice
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Do m est ic/ r eg io n al m ar k et s m ay b e a
b et t er b e t t h a n g l ob a l
Focu s on r e t u r n Use sm ar t su bsid ies i n som e si t u a t i ons Encou r age f a rm er g r oup ings En su r e p r i va t e sect o r h as cen t r a l r o le
Sup po r t capaci t y b u i l d i ng & l ear n in g
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I n c r e ase b a r g a i n i n g p o w e r , r e d u ce r i sk s,cr e a t e g r ea t e r a d d ed v a lu e
I nc lud e food , f odd e r , seed ban k s, st o r agefaci l i t i es, sav in gs and cr ed i t g r ou ps , evene x t e n d e d f a m i l i es
Coopera t i ves- N eed t o b e f ocu sed s m al l w i t h h i g h r e t u r n s
- T ransact ion cos ts can be h igh
- Of t en po l i t i cal - need t o bu i l d t ru st
Co n t r a ct f a r m i n g- Pre d i ct a b le an d re l ia b le ( b u t n o t a lw a ys)
- Pr ob lem o f si de -se l l i ng
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SavannaAgr i cu l t u ra lResearch
I n s t i t u t e
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Th er e i s no b luep r in t Each si t u a t ion i s d i f fe r en t
Faci l i t a t e & enab le Lear n & ad j ust Som e good ex pe r ience o f l ink ingp o o r est an d m o st m ar g i n al b u t n e ed
m o r e
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Pl an r i g id l y w i t h st r i ct t ar g et s Per s i st n o m at t er w h a t e.g . r e f u se t o
ad m i t y ou h av e w r o n g m o del Ch ang e as m u ch as possib le a t t h e
sam e t im e Av o i d sp en d i n g t i m e & f u n d s o n
m o n i t o r i n g Give h and- ou t s Hav e n o f u n d s o r t i m e in r eser v e t od eal w i t h u n e x p ect ed p r o b l em s Br i n g i n o u t si d er s t o r u n & f i x p r o b l em s
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W o m en a s:
Far mer s
M o t h e r s
I n n o v a t o r s Educato rs
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Agriculture Growth
Constant$
million
(2000)
(3-yearmoving
average)
1961/62
1962/64
1964/66
1966/68
1968/70
1970/72
1972/74
1974/76
1976/78
1978/80
1980/82
1982/84
1984/86
1986/88
1988/90
1990/92
1992/94
1994/96
1996/98
1998/00
2000/02
2002/04
2004/06
2006/08
Average growth2.6%/year
Average growth5.1%/year
Average growth-3.1%/year
1974 1982
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34
16
12
8
30.
3
24.9
21.8
17.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Undernourishment (FAOSTAT) (left axis) Under-5 underweight (DHS) (left axis)
Food supply (FAOSTAT) (right axis)
%
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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Agriculturedevelops
&
intensifies
Greateryields
&
Nutritivecrops
Farmersmore
prosperous
Morewage
labour
Lesshunger
Better
health
Ruraleconomy
grows
More ruralemployment
Moreroads and
markets
Greater tradeopportunities
Urbane c o n o my
l i n k s
Sus ta inab led ie t s
& Be t t e re n v i r o n m e n t
ers
ero
Th an k You
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Leap ing & Learn ing
w w w . a g 4 i m p a c t . o r g
One Bi l l ion Hung r y : can w e feed t h e w o r l d?w w w . c a n w e f e e d t h e w o r l d . o r g
Fo l lo w A4 I o n Tw i t t e r :@Ag 4 I m p act # 1 b i l l io n h u n g r y
Contac t :g .con w ay@im per ia l .ac.uk
Th an k You
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