A Statistical and Programmatic Review of the Idaho Supplementation Studies
1 Jeffrey Lutch, Sr. Fishery Research Biologist, Idaho Dept. of Fish and Game, 1414 East Locust Lane,Nampa, ID 83709.
J Lockhart, Fishery Biologist, Nez Perce Tribe. PO Box 1942, McCall, ID 83638
C. Beasly FishPro, a Division of HDR, Inc., 3780 S.E. Mile Hill Drive, Port Orchard, WA 98366.
K. Steinhorst, University of Idaho, Statistical Consulting Center, Moscow ID, 83844.
Idaho Dept of Fish and GameU.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceNez Perce TribeShoshone-Bannock Tribes
Cooperating agencies
Bonneville Power Administration
Evaluate the benefits and risks of supplementing spring and summer Chinook salmon stocks returning to Idaho
Project Goal
Supplementation effects on natural production
Changes in natural productivity
Identify effective supplementation strategies
Recommendations
Research Objectives
Changes in genetic composition
M&E
Evaluate the benefits and risks of supplementing spring and summer Chinook salmon stocks returning to Idaho
Project Goal
Supplementation effects on natural production
Changes in natural productivity
Identify effective supplementation strategies
Recommendations
Research Objectives
Changes in genetic composition
M&E
Experimental comparison of production and productivity between treated and control streams
Experimental Design (Bowles and Leitzinger, 1991)
Evaluation Levels
• Stream specific
• Broad scale
• Small-scale
Phase I – Baseline data, broodstock development, M&E
Phase II – Treatment, M&E
Phase III – Evaluation, M&E
Proposed Study Phases
I. Data set and study stream reviewTreatment level
2. StrayingEffect on ISS evaluation
3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses
4. Statistical power of ISSEffect of losing study streams
5. Programmatic recommendationsTreatment, M&E, statistical analysis
Programmatic and Statistical Review2002 - 2004
I. Data set and study stream reviewTreatment level
2. StrayingEffect on ISS evaluation
3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses
4. Statistical power of ISSEffect of losing study streams
5. Programmatic recommendationsTreatment, M&E, statistical analysis
Programmatic and Statistical Review2002 - 2004
I. Data set and study stream reviewTreatment level
2. StrayingEffect on ISS evaluation
3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses applied through Phase III
4. Statistical power of ISSEffect of losing study streams
5. Programmatic recommendationsTreatment, M&E, statistical analysis
Programmatic and Statistical Review2002 - 2004
I. Data set and study stream reviewTreatment level
2. StrayingEffect on ISS evaluation
3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses
4. Statistical power of ISSEffect of losing study streams
5. Programmatic recommendationsTreatment, M&E, statistical analysis
Programmatic and Statistical Review2002 - 2004
I. Data set and study stream reviewTreatment level
2. StrayingEffect on ISS evaluation
3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses
4. Statistical power of ISSEffect of losing study streams
5. Programmatic recommendationsTreatment, M&E, statistical analysis
Programmatic and Statistical Review2002 - 2004
Determined geographic/temporal coverageDocumented inconsistencies
Compiled cooperative data
• Weir counts • Redd counts• Carcasses• Juvenile abundance• Juvenile survival
Data Set Review
Evaluated treatment levels
Determined geographic/temporal coverageDocumented inconsistencies
Data Set Review
Evaluated treatment levels
Compiled cooperative data
• Weir counts • Redd counts• Carcasses• Juvenile abundance• Juvenile survival
Evaluated treatment levels
Data Set Review
Staggered / Incomplete Treatment - Low adult escapement in Phase I
Determined geographic/temporal coverageDocumented inconsistencies
Compiled cooperative data
• Weir counts • Redd counts• Carcasses• Juvenile abundance• Juvenile survival
I. Data set and study stream reviewTreatment level
2. StrayingEffect on ISS evaluation
3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses
4. Statistical power of ISSEffect of losing study streams
5. Programmatic recommendationsTreatment, M&E, statistical analysis
Programmatic and Statistical Review
Objective 1. Define the extent of straying
Carcass data to predict straying rates• Naturally produced (unmarked)• Hatchery supplementation (uniquely marked)• Hatchery general production (uniquely marked)
Treatments streams: General production
Control streams: General productionISS production
Straying was widespread and often substantial • Detected in all but one study stream • Exceeded 50% in some treated streams
Objective 1. Define the extent of straying
Carcass data to predict straying rates• Naturally produced (unmarked)• Hatchery supplementation (uniquely marked)• Hatchery general production (uniquely marked)
Treatments streams: General production
Control streams: General productionISS production
Objective 2. Determine stray / production relationship
• Calculated redd production attributable to strayingStray proportions x redds / kilometer
• Selected streams with the best carcass data 11 streams (6 control and 5 treated)
• Plotted redd densities as function of strayingStrays per kilometer vs redd densities
Objective 2. Determine stray / production relationship
• Calculated redd production attributable to strayingStray proportions x redds / kilometer
• Selected streams with the best carcass data 11 streams (6 control and 5 treated)
• Plotted redd densities as function of strayingStrays per kilometer vs redd densities
Objective 2. Determine stray / production relationship
• Calculated redd production attributable to strayingStray proportions x redds / kilometer
• Selected streams with the best carcass data 11 streams (6 control and 5 treated)
• Plotted redd densities as function of strayingStrays per kilometer vs redd densities
Objective 2. Determine stray / production relationship
• Calculated redd production attributable to strayingStray proportions x redds / kilometer
• Selected streams with the best carcass data 11 streams (6 control and 5 treated)
• Plotted redd densities as function of strayingStrays per kilometer vs redd densities
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Straying
Red
d D
ensi
ty Relationship • Contributing to redd production
Objective 3. Determine the statistical effect of straying
Repeated measures statistical design (ANCOVA)5 treated 6 control streamsDependent variable = Redd densitiesCovariate = Stray reddsTreatment x Time interaction
Objective 3. Determine the statistical effect of straying
Repeated measures statistical design (ANCOVA)5 treated 6 control streamsDependent variable = Redd densitiesCovariate = Stray reddsTreatment x Time interaction
• Straying insignificant• Intensify monitoring for ISS
ANCOVA = Non-significantANOVA = Non-significant
• Straying effects (ANCOVA)
I. Data set and study stream reviewTreatment level
2. StrayingEffect on ISS evaluation
3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses
4. Statistical power of ISSEffect of losing study streams
5. Programmatic recommendationsTreatment, M&E, statistical analysis
Programmatic and Statistical Review
Statistical Adaptations
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Re-categorized stream designations
• Created partial treatment category• Streams receiving <50% treatment
• Re-coded time variable• Compensated for staggered treatments and responses
Study deviations
Prescribed treatments not achieved
Treatments staggered
Mixed Model Analysis (ANOVA)
Statistical Adaptations
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Re-categorized stream designations
• Created partial treatment category• Streams receiving <50% treatment
• Re-coded time variable• Compensated for staggered treatments and responses
Study deviations
Prescribed treatments not achieved
Treatments staggered
Mixed Model Analysis
Statistical Adaptations
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Re-categorized stream designations
• Created partial treatment category• Streams receiving <50% treatment
• Re-coded time variable• Compensated for staggered treatments and responses
Study deviations
Prescribed treatments not achieved
Treatments staggered
Mixed Model Analysis
Statistical Adaptations
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Re-categorized stream designations
• Created partial treatment category• Streams receiving <50% treatment
• Re-coded time variable• Compensated for staggered treatments and responses
Study deviations
Prescribed treatments not achieved
Treatments staggered
Mixed Model Analysis
Statistical Adaptations
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Re-categorized stream designations
• Created partial treatment category• Streams receiving <50% treatment
• Re-coded time variable• Compensated for staggered treatments and responses
Study deviations
Prescribed treatments not achieved
Treatments staggered
Mixed Model Analysis
Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Treatments Calendar Year
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
- - - X X X XStream X
(Treated BY 1993)
Treatments Calendar Year
Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
- - - X X X X
- - - - - X X
Stream X(Treated BY 1993)
Stream Y(Treated BY 1996)
Treatments Calendar Year
Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS
- - - X X X X
- - - - - X X
Stream X(Treated BY 1993)
Stream Y(Treated BY 1996)
- 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4
- 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2
Stream X(Treated BY 1993)
Stream Y(Treated BY 1996)
Treatments Response Year
Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS
- - - X X X X
- - - - - X X
Stream X(Treated BY 1993)
Stream Y(Treated BY 1996)
- 2 - 1 0 1 2 3
- 2 - 1 0 1 2 3
- 2 - 1 0 1 2 3 4
- 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 0 1 2
Stream X(Treated BY 1993)
Stream Y(Treated BY 1996)
Stream X(Treated BY 1993)
Stream Y(Treated BY 1996)
Treatments Response Year
Re-coding Time for Evaluating ISS
Statistical Prototype Model
Class Levels Values
Blocks 9 Major sub-basins
Treatment 3 Treated, Partial, Control
Stream 30 5 Treatment, 11 Partial, 14 control
Time 2 1, 2
Year 16 ….. -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3…….
Dependent Variable = Log transformed redds/km
Mixed Model Results
• Power to detect a response in Phase II• Prototype analysis compensates for study deviations• Experimental analysis feasible through Phase III
Effect Numerator DF Denominator DF F-Value Pr>F
Treatment 2 19 0.82 0.4572
Time 1 14 4.15 0.0610
Treatment x Time 2 240 18.11 <0.0001 **
00.1
0.20.3
0.40.5
0.6
0 1 2 3
Time
Me
an
re
dd
de
ns
ity Control
Partial
Treatment
Regression Model
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Quantified treatment (levels)
• Applied stray percentage
Regression Analysis
Rationale
Model the effects of strays/treatment
Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level)
Regression Model
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Quantified treatment (levels)
• Applied stray percentage
Regression Analysis
Rationale
Model the effects of strays/treatment
Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level)
Regression Model
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Quantified treatment (levels)
• Applied stray percentage
Regression Analysis
Rationale
Model the effects of strays/treatment
Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level)
Regression Analysis
Rationale
Model the effects of strays/treatment
Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level)
Regression Model
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Quantified treatment (levels)
• Applied stray percentage
Regression Analysis
Rationale
Model the effects of strays/treatment
Straying widespread (all streams treated at some level)
Regression Model
• Grouped streams on geographic/habitat similarities
• Quantified treatment (levels)
• Applied stray percentage
Dependent Variables = Redds/km, Juvenile abundance/survival
Regression Analysis
Variable DF Estimate Error t-Value Pr>F
Intercept 1 0.54860 0.06759 8.12 0.0001
Treatment % 1 0.61024 0.15702 3.89 0.0001
Straying 1 0.91322 0.18545 4.92 0.0001
G8 1 0.95534 0.15145 6.31 <.0001
• Production increases with treatment/straying• Regression approach feasible through Phase III
Regression Analysis
Variable DF Estimate Error t-Value Pr>F
Intercept 1 0.54860 0.06759 8.12 0.0001
Treatment % 1 0.61024 0.15702 3.89 0.0001
Straying 1 0.91322 0.18545 4.92 0.0001
G8 1 0.95534 0.15145 6.31 <.0001
I. Data set and study stream reviewTreatment level
2. StrayingEffect on ISS evaluation
3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analyses
4. Statistical power of ISSEffect of losing study streams
5. Programmatic recommendationsTreatment, M&E, statistical analysis
Programmatic and Statistical Review
Results
Statistical power maintained when 25% of streams removed
Study Deviations
Research / management conflicts
Numerical power analysis
25% of streams removed in four test simulationsPrototype analysis appliedResults compared to baseline prototype
Loss of streams may not compromise statewide evaluations but effects on other comparisons need to be examined
Results
Statistical power maintained when 25% of streams removed
Study Deviations
Research / management conflicts
Numerical power analysis
25% of streams removed in four test simulationsPrototype analysis appliedResults compared to baseline prototype
I. Data set and study stream reviewTreatment level
2. StrayingEffect on ISS evaluation
3. Statistical evaluation Prototype analysis
4. Statistical power of ISSEffect of losing study streams
5. Programmatic recommendationsTreatment, M&E, statistical analysis
Programmatic and Statistical Review
Statistical Analysis• Prototype for statewide evaluation• Model other effects
Monitoring and Evaluation• Intensify carcass surveys • Increased precision
Redefine Phase II and III timeline
ISS Programmatic Adaptations
DNA Microsatellite Analysis• Separate stray production
Project Coordination• Project website• Juvenile / adult database• Work statements• Reporting
Redefined study design• Data types meet objectives
ISS Original Study Timeline
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Baseline data/genetics collection
Brood stock development
F1 Juvenile releases
JuvenileRelease
Adult return, supplementation
Adult return, supplementation, F2 brood
Control &Treatment
StreamMonitoring
Adapted Timeline
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Baseline data/genetics collection
Brood stock development
F1 Juvenile releases
JuvenileRelease
Adult return, supplementation
Adult return, supplementation, F2 brood
Control &Treatment
StreamMonitoring
2007
2012
2004
Statistical Analysis• Prototype for statewide evaluation• Model other effects
Monitoring and Evaluation• Intensify carcass surveys • Increased precision
Redefine Phase II and III timeline
ISS Programmatic Adaptations
DNA Microsatellite Analysis• Separate stray production
Project Coordination• Project website• Juvenile / adult database• Work statements• Reporting
Redefined study design• Data types meet objectives
ISS Programmatic Adaptations
Statistical Analysis• Prototype for statewide evaluation• Model other effects
Monitoring and Evaluation• Intensify carcass surveys • Increased precision
Redefine Phase II and III timeline
DNA Microsatellite Analysis• Separate stray production
Project Coordination• Project website• Juvenile / adult database• Work statements• Reporting
Redefined study design• Data types meet objectives
ISS Programmatic Adaptations
Statistical Analysis• Prototype for statewide evaluation• Model other effects
Monitoring and Evaluation• Intensify carcass surveys • Increased precision
Redefine Phase II and III timeline
DNA Microsatellite Analysis• Separate stray production
Project Coordination• Project website• Juvenile / adult database• Work statements• Reporting
Redefined study design• Data types meet objectives
ISS Programmatic Adaptations
Statistical Analysis• Prototype for statewide evaluation• Model other effects
Monitoring and Evaluation• Intensify carcass surveys • Increased precision
Redefine Phase II and III timeline
DNA Microsatellite Analysis• Separate stray production
Project Coordination• Project website• Juvenile / adult database• Work statements• Reporting
Redefined study design• Data types meet objectives
ISS Programmatic Adaptations
Statistical Analysis• Prototype for statewide evaluation• Model other effects
Monitoring and Evaluation• Intensify carcass surveys • Increased precision
Redefine Phase II and III timeline
DNA Microsatellite Analysis• Separate stray production
Project Coordination• Project website• Juvenile / adult database• Work statements• Reporting
Redefined study design• Data types meet objectives
Questions ??
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