Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development Website: http://www.rcmss.com. ISSN: 2354
Scot Schraufnagel
1
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
A Cross-National Comparison
Scot Schraufnagel, PhD1Northern Illinois University, Department of Political Science
DeKalb, Illinois 60115-2828. Email: 2Northern Illinois University
60115-2828. Email: [email protected]
Manuscript ID:
Abstract
The political fortunes of Sub-Saharan Africa changed dramatically in the past twenty
late 1980s, many countries have held regular multi
participation rates, a common starting point for work on democratization, is now possible. This paper
represents a first look at the determinants of voter turnout in 15 African states that have witnessed some
stability in national elections since 1988. Con
model is developed to test a colonial legacy thesis, which seeks to und
colonizing power has had on contemporary political outcomes. In addition, the research ex
played by ethnic fractionalization and religious diversity on electoral participation rates. The former is
found to associate with less participation and the lat
uncovers, on average, voter turnout is higher in former French colonies.
Key Words: Voter Turnout; Africa; Democratization; Colonial Legacy; Ethnic Fractionalization; Religious
Pluralism
Introduction Africa is home to about one-seventh of the world's people
the world's nation-states.Being the second largest continent
gives rise to a rich and diverse terrain featured in countless movies and photographs
Africa has become a desired tourist destination for people
governmental stability on much of
ethnic lines, giving rise to political
Morrison 2008; Eifert, Miguel, and Posner 2010
dispersed equitably and are often
Africa’s vast and varied terrain
1996),which creates socio-economic
party electionsin many nation-states
trend away from political strife
continent (Wiseman 1993; Lindberg 2006).
This research studies recent
focus on voter participation rates
turnout are central to the democratic experience and
democratic transition (Mozaffar 2002, 86; Moehler 2009)
(1989)argues, convincingly, tha
and participatory elections.Although elections
which countries are, and which
competentelections unlike any other
governance (Bratton and van de Walle 1997;
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December. ISSN: 2354-158X (Online) ISSN: 2346-724X (Print)
Scot Schraufnagel& Peter Gowen, 2014, 2(3):1-15
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
National Comparison of Voter Turnout in 15 Sub-Saharan African States
Scot Schraufnagel, PhD1&Peter Gowen
2
Northern Illinois University, Department of Political Science,
2828. Email: [email protected](Corresponding Author)
Northern Illinois University, Department of Political Science, DeKalb, Illinois
Manuscript ID: RCMSS/JGGSDA/1412001
Saharan Africa changed dramatically in the past twenty-five years. Since the
late 1980s, many countries have held regular multi-party elections. A cross-national examination of voter
participation rates, a common starting point for work on democratization, is now possible. This paper
represents a first look at the determinants of voter turnout in 15 African states that have witnessed some
stability in national elections since 1988. Controlling for several standard explanations of voter turnout, a
model is developed to test a colonial legacy thesis, which seeks to understand the influence the former
colonizing power has had on contemporary political outcomes. In addition, the research ex
played by ethnic fractionalization and religious diversity on electoral participation rates. The former is
found to associate with less participation and the latter higher voter turnout. Moreover, the research
rnout is higher in former French colonies.
: Voter Turnout; Africa; Democratization; Colonial Legacy; Ethnic Fractionalization; Religious
seventh of the world's people and it contains a little over a quarter of
Being the second largest continent in the world, Africa’s
terrain featured in countless movies and photographs
desired tourist destination for people from all over the globe. Unfortunately
much of the continent is incomplete. Nation-states often d
political discord and social disharmony(Annett 2001; Lindberg and
Morrison 2008; Eifert, Miguel, and Posner 2010).High natural resource endowments
often linked to civil conflict (Homer-Dixon 1994)
varied terrain hides the fact there is a dearth of suitable farmland (Eswaran
economic and political challenges. Nevertheless, shiftsto
states,since the late 1980s and early 1990s,may mark a permanent
strife toward a steadiersocial and economic life for much of the
Lindberg 2006).
recent elections in 15 Sub-Saharan African nation
participation rates. Scholars argue, quality electionswith reasonabl
are central to the democratic experience and go a long way toward defining successful
(Mozaffar 2002, 86; Moehler 2009). Political theorist
that the core institution of modern liberal democracy
hough elections with high voter turnout are insufficient to
which are not,succeeding as democracies, scholarship suggests
elections unlike any other democratic institution must precede successful
van de Walle 1997; Lindberg 2006, 1).Moreover, many
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
Saharan African States
five years. Since the
national examination of voter
participation rates, a common starting point for work on democratization, is now possible. This paper
represents a first look at the determinants of voter turnout in 15 African states that have witnessed some
trolling for several standard explanations of voter turnout, a
erstand the influence the former
colonizing power has had on contemporary political outcomes. In addition, the research examines the role
played by ethnic fractionalization and religious diversity on electoral participation rates. The former is
er higher voter turnout. Moreover, the research
: Voter Turnout; Africa; Democratization; Colonial Legacy; Ethnic Fractionalization; Religious
t contains a little over a quarter of
’s great expanse
terrain featured in countless movies and photographs. Increasingly,
all over the globe. Unfortunately,
states often divide along
; Lindberg and
resource endowments are not
Dixon 1994). Moreover,
farmland (Eswaran et al.
to stable multi-
may mark a permanent
for much of the
African nation-states with a
with reasonably high voter
go a long way toward defining successful
heorist Robert Dahl
he core institution of modern liberal democracy is competitive
are insufficient to define
hip suggests that
e successful self-
many argue early
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development Website: http://www.rcmss.com. ISSN: 2354
Scot Schraufnagel
2
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
electoral experiences represent a critical juncture in the trajectory of a
Kostadinova 2003; Kostadinova and Power 2007
presence of democratic elections
and political liberties (Lindberg 2006).
Hence, this inquiry into
elections. While not an unqualified success
2012),over the past 25 years,multi
on the African continent. Taking advantage of th
national comparison of voter turnoutrates
others have used to examine variance
fromothervoter turnout studies,
of the countries enduredas itrelate
legacy thesis has been a common baseline for work on p
and Kaiser 2007; Englebert 2000;
In addition, we attempt
ethnic and religious fractionalization
conflict is a paramount explanation of electoral
(Young 1976; Bates 1983; Horowitz 1985; Lindberg and Mo
Posner 2010; and on ethnic identity and seat volatility see Ferree 2010).We add something
this debate by also examining
attention. In particular, we seek to
tensionand associate with higher voter turnout rates, while
a single religion may cause individuals, in the aggregate, to
and associate with lower participation rates.
Importantly, we do not
democratic development.The research
limited intention is to further cross
elections, while uncovering insights that
directly. Ultimately, we will test the predictive power of the for
religious pluralism, and several control variables
patterns around the world.Sp
concurrent executive and legislative
and civil rights that characterizes
House organization.
The remainder of the
overview of earlier works on democratic transition
to colonialism and ethnic and religious pluralism
regarding voter turnout, based on
our empirical tests, which is followed by a summary
counterintuitive findings related to former French colonies
1 A lot of work is being done to define competent democracy by the Varieties of Democracy Project led by
Michael Coppedge, John Gerring, and Staffan Lindberg(http://kellogg.nd.edu/projects/vdem/ last accessed
8/27/2014). We cite Lindberg and
work both in the democratization literature,
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December. ISSN: 2354-158X (Online) ISSN: 2346-724X (Print)
Scot Schraufnagel& Peter Gowen, 2014, 2(3):1-15
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
represent a critical juncture in the trajectory of a body politic (Rustow 1970
Kostadinova 2003; Kostadinova and Power 2007) and that once regularized, even the mere
of democratic elections, helps to establish a self-reinforcing trend toward greater civil
and political liberties (Lindberg 2006).1
inquiry into democratic development in Sub-Saharan Africa
hile not an unqualified success (seeChabal 1998; Brown and Kaiser 2007; Cheru
multi-party elections have become more commonin many
. Taking advantage of the relative stability, this researchinitiate
voter turnoutrates in an attempt to illuminate correlates
variance in voter turnout rates in other parts of the
, however, this research scrutinizes the colonizing experience each
relates to contemporary variance in participation rates
been a common baseline for work on political development in Africa
Englebert 2000; Mozaffar 2002).
attempt to generalize, across nation-states and time, about the role
fractionalization on voter turnout rates. Many suggest ethnic identity
is a paramount explanation of electoral-political outcomes across Sub-Saharan
6; Bates 1983; Horowitz 1985; Lindberg and Morrison 2008; Eifert, Miguel, and
on ethnic identity and seat volatility see Ferree 2010).We add something
this debate by also examining religious diversity, a consideration that has received
seek to test whether ethnic homogeneity may reduce
and associate with higher voter turnout rates, whilereligious homogeneity or
cause individuals, in the aggregate, to de-emphasize the political process
and associate with lower participation rates.
do not hold that higher voter turnout rates are analogous to greater
research, in this regard, must be viewed as incomplete.
intention is to further cross-national discovery on the topic of voter turnout
while uncovering insights that others might use to study democratic development
test the predictive power of the former colonizer, ethnic pluralism,
everal control variables that others have foundaffect voter turnout
Specifically, we control for population density, adult literacy,
executive and legislative elections, founding elections, and the level of civil libert
and civil rights that characterizes each country in each election year as defined by the Freedom
paper is divided into four sections. The first provides a brief
earlier works on democratic transition in Sub-Saharan Africaparticularly as it relates
to colonialism and ethnic and religious pluralism. The second develops and proposes hypotheses
, based on previous scholarship. The third section presents the results
our empirical tests, which is followed by a summary sectionthat attempts to explain the somewhat
counterintuitive findings related to former French colonies.Where others have suggest
A lot of work is being done to define competent democracy by the Varieties of Democracy Project led by
Michael Coppedge, John Gerring, and Staffan Lindberg(http://kellogg.nd.edu/projects/vdem/ last accessed
and various co-authors extensively throughout this paper because of
work both in the democratization literature, but also for work on elections in Africa.
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
(Rustow 1970;
nce regularized, even the mere
reinforcing trend toward greater civil
Africa focuses on
Chabal 1998; Brown and Kaiser 2007; Cheru
many countries
initiates a cross-
in the manner
world.Distinct
experience each
rates.A colonial
development in Africa(Brown
about the role of
Many suggest ethnic identity and
Saharan Africa
ison 2008; Eifert, Miguel, and
on ethnic identity and seat volatility see Ferree 2010).We add something new to
a consideration that has received much less
reduce political
ordominance by
the political process
analogous to greater
must be viewed as incomplete.Our more
national discovery on the topic of voter turnout in African
democratic development more
mer colonizer, ethnic pluralism,
affect voter turnout
adult literacy,
the level of civil liberties
country in each election year as defined by the Freedom
first provides a brief
particularly as it relates
develops and proposes hypotheses
presents the results of
to explain the somewhat
suggested former
A lot of work is being done to define competent democracy by the Varieties of Democracy Project led by
Michael Coppedge, John Gerring, and Staffan Lindberg(http://kellogg.nd.edu/projects/vdem/ last accessed
this paper because of their
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development Website: http://www.rcmss.com. ISSN: 2354
Scot Schraufnagel
3
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
British colonies, on average, ought to h
being equal, higher voter participation rates in former French colonies.
that ethnic pluralism associates with lower voter turnout, while religious diversity prompts high
rates of voter participation.
Earlier Works on Sub-SaharanThe study of democratization in
left significant theoretical and empirical holes.
to individual nation-states (Firmin
2013). When scholars makecross
Adejumobi 2000; Brown and Kaiser 2002
exploratory. In an important deviation, Mozaffar (2002) studies 36
states and learns former British colonies and ethnic fragmentation associate positively with the
autonomy of election management bod
legitimize the electoral process.
survey data to learn thatas elections draw near
Miguel, and Posner 2010).This
establish a starting point for further
variables and voter turnout rates
Probably the facet of democratic development in Africa
which an uneven democratic experience
colonizing power. Most notably,
European colonizershave led to
governance is known as ‘indirect rule
French orientation, stated at its best
Africans but with Euro-centric standards and little actual socio
equality(320-21). The Portuguese and
French;although often there was
(322-23).
Others note the British
in the country’s former colonies (
scholars note good governance and economic growthhave been
French colonies. Under aBritish
investor protections, which can
economic growth (Barro 1996)
and Cogneau (2008) study inter
five former colonies,which run
populations in former British colonies ha
and educational status.2
Important for this work
prior to the independence movements
on average, had a longer experience and
2 The British may also have been better at unwinding their hold on their colonies, transitioning power from
colonial administrators to a new society, in a more functional and timely manner than the French.
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December. ISSN: 2354-158X (Online) ISSN: 2346-724X (Print)
Scot Schraufnagel& Peter Gowen, 2014, 2(3):1-15
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
British colonies, on average, ought to have greater democratic success, this research finds all else
being equal, higher voter participation rates in former French colonies. We also uncover evidence
that ethnic pluralism associates with lower voter turnout, while religious diversity prompts high
Saharan African Democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa, although becoming more common, still has
theoretical and empirical holes.What has been learned, to date, often is applicable
states (Firmin-Sellers 2000; Brown 2001; Schubert 2010; Hoffman and Long
cross-national comparisons(Bratton and van de Walle 1997
Adejumobi 2000; Brown and Kaiser 2002),by their own admission, the work has been largely
In an important deviation, Mozaffar (2002) studies 36 Sub-Saharan African nation
former British colonies and ethnic fragmentation associate positively with the
autonomy of election management bodies or state-run bureaucracies usedto
. Another cross-national work examines a sample of countries
as elections draw nearer ethnic identitybecomes more salient
This researchwill use a similar approach to those just cited
a starting point for further inquiry into the relationship between a host of predictor
and voter turnout rates.
of democratic development in Africa studied the most is the extent to
uneven democratic experience is due to the dissimilar governing practices of
Most notably, Gilbert and Reynolds (2008) note the varied philosophies of th
led to distinct government structures. The British model of colonial
indirect rule’ for its greater reliance on local power structures (324).
stated at its best, was one of fostering equality between Europeans and
centric standards and little actual socio-political or economic
21). The Portuguese and Belgian models were more closely aligned with the
as evenfewercivil rights orliberties afforded indigenous population
British common law legal system is responsible for greater civic culture
former colonies (Firmin-Sellers 2000; La Porta et al. 1999; Hayek 1960
governance and economic growthhave been less robust, on average, in
British common law system, countries tend to have better property and
can lead to a more diverse spread of capital and higher
economic growth (Barro 1996). Accordingly, and broadening Firmin-Seller’s sample, Bossuroy
inter- and intra-generational social mobility in Africa. Their
un the gamut of the democracy/authoritarian spectrum,
former British colonies have better social mobility, after controlling for occupation
Important for this work, we noteboth Britain and France introduced multi-party elections
movements thatswept Africa in the 1960s. However, French colonies
longer experience and a greater number of multiparty elections (Collier 1982)
The British may also have been better at unwinding their hold on their colonies, transitioning power from
ial administrators to a new society, in a more functional and timely manner than the French.
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
ater democratic success, this research finds all else
uncover evidence
that ethnic pluralism associates with lower voter turnout, while religious diversity prompts higher
Africa, although becoming more common, still has
often is applicable
; Brown 2001; Schubert 2010; Hoffman and Long
de Walle 1997;
the work has been largely
African nation-
former British colonies and ethnic fragmentation associate positively with the
to organize and
a sample of countries and
salient (Eifert,
to those just cited and seeks to
the relationship between a host of predictor
is the extent to
governing practices of each
varied philosophies of the
he British model of colonial
for its greater reliance on local power structures (324). The
was one of fostering equality between Europeans and
political or economic
closely aligned with the
afforded indigenous populations
greater civic culture
; La Porta et al. 1999; Hayek 1960). These
robust, on average, in former
common law system, countries tend to have better property and
d to a more diverse spread of capital and higher aggregate
Seller’s sample, Bossuroy
. Theirstudy of
/authoritarian spectrum, findsnative
controlling for occupation
party elections
. However, French colonies,
(Collier 1982).
The British may also have been better at unwinding their hold on their colonies, transitioning power from
ial administrators to a new society, in a more functional and timely manner than the French.
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development Website: http://www.rcmss.com. ISSN: 2354
Scot Schraufnagel
4
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
Lindberg (2006) has studied elections in
one of his most important these
allowed for equality of political participation and free competition
important role played by successive election cycles as a legitimizing force and an
barometer of the quality of the
elected representatives to assemblies in both France
regular-competitive elections might prompt greater legitimacy for the contemporary electoral
process in former French colonies.
Lindberg (2006) also notes
Sub-Saharan Africa and that this presents several po
electoral system (see alsoEasterly and Levine 1997; Posner 2004
ethnic fractionalization has been negatively correlated with
economic growth (Blais 2000; Fornos et al. 2004
political parties in many African nation
politicians have an easy time making the case
political violence (Bates 1994, 21).
enthusiasm, especially among moderates or non
Mozaffar, Scarritt and Galaich (2003)
rules interact in ways to create
elections.In particular, they note
the number of coalitions, reduc
deadlock caused by ethno-political fragmentation
note the round of democratization
fractionalization than had previously been witnessed (251
(2006) attests to this and notes
also Reilly 2000-01).
Religion, and the effect
Africa, has not received nearly the level of attention that
pluralism, religious diversitymay
associated with the development of competing political parties that
violence and/or boycotts, both formal and informal. This obviously can decrease aggregate voter
turnout.However, when religious diversity pre
political life of a community, there may be greater voter participation. Previous researchers find
that religious homogeneity can prompt a scenario where
traditions than they are political
process (Fish 2002).4Religious
3Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994) for their part find that electoral institutions and social cleavages are both
important, and that though district magnitude helps
this effect is conditioned by ethnic group concentrations (3854 Although work on religious pluralism in Africa is scarce, much has been written about the possible links
between organized religion and authoritarianism (Kakar 1996; Kalyvas 1996), primarily concerning Islam
and Catholicism (see alsoKalyvas, 2000 on the relevance of religious parties)
that the more dominant a single religion is the weaker are democrati
2004). Importantly, Fish (2002) has shown that predominantly Islamic
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December. ISSN: 2354-158X (Online) ISSN: 2346-724X (Print)
Scot Schraufnagel& Peter Gowen, 2014, 2(3):1-15
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
elections in nearly all Sub-Saharan African countries since 198
most important theses is that even when elections are merely ‘de jure
allowed for equality of political participation and free competition’ (8). Lindberg em
important role played by successive election cycles as a legitimizing force and an
the quality of the democratic process.Beginning in 1946, all former French colonies
elected representatives to assemblies in both France and local councils. Our suspicion
competitive elections might prompt greater legitimacy for the contemporary electoral
process in former French colonies.
also notes, political parties tend to be ethnically based across
his presents several potential problems for the functioning of
Easterly and Levine 1997; Posner 2004; Posner 2005)
has been negatively correlated with the quality of governance, as well as
economic growth (Blais 2000; Fornos et al. 2004; Burkhart and Lewis-Beck 1994
in many African nation-states continue to form along ethnic lines and
time making the case that a win by an opponent may
political violence (Bates 1994, 21).This, in turn, can have the effect of dampen
enthusiasm, especially among moderates or non-group members.
rritt and Galaich (2003), for their part, show that ethnicity and electoral
rules interact in ways to create variance in the quality and manageability of multi
they note the high interest in concurrent elections, which tend
reducethe number of political parties, and mitigate the potential for
political fragmentation.3 Moreover, Bratton and van de Walle (1997)
round of democratization that began in the early 1990s opened with less ethnic
fractionalization than had previously been witnessed (251-252; see alsoMamdani 1996). Lindberg
and notes the hyper-regional characteristic of parties has waned (78
effect of religious diversity on electoral processes and outcomes in
has not received nearly the level of attention that ethnic pluralism has.
eligious diversitymay encourage participation.As noted, ethnic pluralism
associated with the development of competing political parties that may advocate for election
formal and informal. This obviously can decrease aggregate voter
when religious diversity prevents a single religion from dominat
there may be greater voter participation. Previous researchers find
can prompt a scenario wherebypeople are more loyal to religious
than they are political associations and, consequently, less concerned with the political
Religious pluralism and a more secular political process, one that
Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994) for their part find that electoral institutions and social cleavages are both
important, and that though district magnitude helps to define the number of parties involved in an election
this effect is conditioned by ethnic group concentrations (385-86).
Although work on religious pluralism in Africa is scarce, much has been written about the possible links
on and authoritarianism (Kakar 1996; Kalyvas 1996), primarily concerning Islam
Kalyvas, 2000 on the relevance of religious parties). The conclusion is, generally,
that the more dominant a single religion is the weaker are democratic institutions (Blais 2000; Fornos et al.
2004). Importantly, Fish (2002) has shown that predominantly Islamic or Catholic countries had poorer
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
African countries since 1989 and
de jure’ they ‘have
. Lindberg emphasizes the
important role played by successive election cycles as a legitimizing force and an important
French colonies
and local councils. Our suspicion is that these
competitive elections might prompt greater legitimacy for the contemporary electoral
based across much of
problems for the functioning of an
). Importantly,
quality of governance, as well as
Beck 1994).Today,
and incumbent
may incite ethno-
This, in turn, can have the effect of dampening voter
show that ethnicity and electoral
the quality and manageability of multi-party
tends to increase
the potential for
Bratton and van de Walle (1997)
opened with less ethnic
Mamdani 1996). Lindberg
regional characteristic of parties has waned (78-80; see
and outcomes in
. Unlike ethnic
c pluralism has been
advocate for election
formal and informal. This obviously can decrease aggregate voter
dominating the socio-
there may be greater voter participation. Previous researchers find
more loyal to religious
less concerned with the political
one that puts a
Ordeshook and Shvetsova (1994) for their part find that electoral institutions and social cleavages are both
to define the number of parties involved in an election,
Although work on religious pluralism in Africa is scarce, much has been written about the possible links
on and authoritarianism (Kakar 1996; Kalyvas 1996), primarily concerning Islam
. The conclusion is, generally,
c institutions (Blais 2000; Fornos et al.
Catholic countries had poorer
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development Website: http://www.rcmss.com. ISSN: 2354
Scot Schraufnagel
5
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
premium on participation sans religion
average.5
Research Design and HypothesesThe study uses a Generalized L
uninterrupted multi-party elections in 15
1988 and 2012.When constructing the sample, several
Saharan African nation-statesare
the region's distinct social and political history (Lindberg 2006, 9). Island nations were
excluded due to their unique characteristics, not the least of which is
any nation-state with a population below
most similar case design intended to hold some socio
constant.Next, we only use first round
excluded, again, for the purpose of analyzing as best as possible comparable cases
the clock in 1988 coincidesloosely
(Huntington 1991). The final sample can be seen in Table 1
following footnote elaborates more on case selection
(Table 1 goes about here. See appendix
Dependent Variable: Voter turnout
(VAP) that casts a vote in a given election
included is provided in Table 1.
population in each country). We u
cleaner.Registration rolls in many African nation
2006, 639).Data on voting age population w
Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), as it has the most comprehensive database for
VAP. Data on total votes cast w
democratic experiences but were not more violent and did not experience lower levels of interpersonal
trust. In his study, he controls for a wide range of factors including ethnic pluralism and
heritage. 5Varshney (2007) claims that ‘religion
phenomena are distinct. We offer as evid6Initially, only countries which maintained successful,
were in the sample. This consideration caused all former Belgium colonies to be
We relax the coding rule and include t
post-genocide elections from Rwanda to test the hypothes
colonies. Bratton and van de Walle (1997, 120
surrounding selecting a suitable sample of country
cases they label ‘blocked transitions.
test of voter turnout may be compromised by any of a number of factors related to money politics,
incomplete data, and fraud. Yet,we hold there is value in initiating the discovery process nonetheless. In the
end, when the elections took place in countries
was some minimal level of competition
of the votes cast.
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December. ISSN: 2354-158X (Online) ISSN: 2346-724X (Print)
Scot Schraufnagel& Peter Gowen, 2014, 2(3):1-15
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
sans religion, might then associate with greater voter turnout,
and Hypotheses Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression model to explain voter turnout in
elections in 15 African countries. The elections took place
When constructing the sample, several factors were considered. First, o
are included.The sample excludes the states of NorthAfricadue to
the region's distinct social and political history (Lindberg 2006, 9). Island nations were
excluded due to their unique characteristics, not the least of which is small population.
state with a population below one million persons was not considered
intended to hold some socio-economic and cultural
first round elections. Second round elections and r
the purpose of analyzing as best as possible comparable cases
esloosely with the latest wave of democratization in the region
. The final sample can be seen in Table 1 and includes 92
following footnote elaborates more on case selection.6
See appendix)
Voter turnout is modeled as the percentage of the voting age population
a vote in a given election year. The average value for each of the 15 countries
included is provided in Table 1. Most specifically, total votes are divided bythe VAP
). We use VAPinstead of registered voters because the
in many African nation-states are poorly tracked or maintained
on voting age population were retrieved from the International Institute for
Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), as it has the most comprehensive database for
otal votes cast were drawn from the online African Elections Database
but were not more violent and did not experience lower levels of interpersonal
he controls for a wide range of factors including ethnic pluralism and a British colonial
religion’ is a particular kind of ‘ethnicity’ (277), but we hold
as evidence the countervailing theoretical expectations cited above.
nly countries which maintained successful, de jure democratic electionssince the late 1980s
This consideration caused all former Belgium colonies to be dropped from the analysis
include twosuccessive and contemporary elections from Burundi and
genocide elections from Rwanda to test the hypothesis that voter turnout will be lower in Belgium
le (1997, 120-21) are particularly cognizant of the many issues
surrounding selecting a suitable sample of country-elections to study. We include elections from some
blocked transitions.’ We fully appreciate their concerns and recognized this preliminary
test of voter turnout may be compromised by any of a number of factors related to money politics,
,we hold there is value in initiating the discovery process nonetheless. In the
lace in countries with flawed transitions we include elections
was some minimal level of competition, defined as the losing political parties receiving at least 30 percent
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
er voter turnout, on
regression model to explain voter turnout in
took place between
First, only Sub-
NorthAfricadue to
the region's distinct social and political history (Lindberg 2006, 9). Island nations were also
population. Explicitly,
not considered, bolstering a
and cultural considerations
and referenda are
the purpose of analyzing as best as possible comparable cases. Last, starting
the latest wave of democratization in the region
elections; the
voting age population
alue for each of the 15 countries
VAP (the over-18
because the data are
are poorly tracked or maintained (Geys
retrieved from the International Institute for
Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), as it has the most comprehensive database for
African Elections Database (AED),
but were not more violent and did not experience lower levels of interpersonal
British colonial
(277), but we hold that the
cited above.
electionssince the late 1980s
from the analysis.
contemporary elections from Burundi and three
s that voter turnout will be lower in Belgium
cognizant of the many issues
elections to study. We include elections from some
this preliminary
test of voter turnout may be compromised by any of a number of factors related to money politics,
,we hold there is value in initiating the discovery process nonetheless. In the
include elections only if there
defined as the losing political parties receiving at least 30 percent
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Scot Schraufnagel
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Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
and compared to data in Psephos
IDEA's data for total votes cast
Colonial Power.The first explanatory variable is the former colonizer
nation-states. The countries included were colonized by
Portugaland consequently four
Given the theoretical and empirical range of institutional bonuses former British colonies gained
upon independence, it is hypothesized that voter turnout should be higher in those countries than
elsewhere, ceteris paribus. British colonie
providing the baseline for the statistical test
negative regression coefficients
the other countries than in former British colonies
Portuguese colonies will produce
to involve indigenous populations i
Portugal,scholars argue, had been
Key Considerations: Ethnic and Religious Pluralism
ethnicity and party politics across Africa,
variation in voter turnout rates across the countries studied. O
diversity, on average, will lead to lower
tendency for ethnic-based political parties
The latter is believed to deter
caught up in violent acts. Data for ethnic pl
of the CIA World Factbook. Specifically, we subtract
from the largest reported ethnic group. For instance, if the largest ethnic group comprise
percentof a country's population
that the largest ethnic group is a smaller percentage of the total population
pluralism prevails. The mean ethnic pluralism
deviation of over 30 percent.
Religious Pluralismis measured in the same manner as ethnic pluralism. Data
obtained from the annual editions of the
range from six percent in Senegal in 2007 and 2012
Senegal is about 94 percent Sunni Muslim and
homogeneous of the nation-states
but this group comprises less than
all cases is 39.7 percent.
7 We contacted IDEA concerning four issues we unco
errors. The other two were transcription errors: the last digit was missing. Finally, their data include an
inconsistency in coding Total Votes for multi
while other times it is second round numbers. Because of th
relying most heavily on the African Elections Database
source of voter turnout data. IDEA and
when they were not, we turned to Elections in Africa
‘correct’ value. AED tended to match these other sources more often than IDEA.
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Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
Psephos (2013) and Elections in Africa (1999)for accuracy
cast to be less reliable.7
explanatory variable is the former colonizer in each of the 15
The countries included were colonized by Britain, France,
four dummy variables are employed,one representing each colonizer.
Given the theoretical and empirical range of institutional bonuses former British colonies gained
hypothesized that voter turnout should be higher in those countries than
British colonies are the excluded group in the regression analysis,
providing the baseline for the statistical test. The expectation is that the tests
negative regression coefficients suggesting that, on average, voter turnout will be lower in
countries than in former British colonies. In addition,we expectformer
will produce the lowest voter turnout rates, given their more limited efforts
populations in the legal and bureaucratic order during colonial times
been particularly repressive (Gilbert and Reynolds 2008, 320
Key Considerations: Ethnic and Religious Pluralism:Given the well-established ties between
ethnicity and party politics across Africa, Ethnic Pluralismis included as a key
rates across the countries studied. Our expectation is that
lead to lower voter turnout. The causal argument is concern over the
based political parties to sponsor election boycotts and electoral violence.
to deter people from showing themselves at polling stations, lest they be
Data for ethnic pluralism are retrieved from the last 25 annual
Specifically, we subtract from 100 the percentage of the
ethnic group. For instance, if the largest ethnic group comprise
tion, the variable’svalue is‘68.’ Scored as such, a largervalue implies
the largest ethnic group is a smaller percentage of the total population,and greater ethnic
mean ethnic pluralism value for all cases is 34.9 percent with a standard
measured in the same manner as ethnic pluralism. Data
obtained from the annual editions of the CIA World Factbook. Scores for religious pluralism
Senegal in 2007 and 2012 to 76.2 percent for Mozambique in 2012.
Senegal is about 94 percent Sunni Muslim and correspondingly the country is the mos
statesstudied. In Mozambique the largest religious group is Catholic,
comprises less than 25 percent of the country’s population. The average value for
We contacted IDEA concerning four issues we uncovered with their data. Two were simple copy
errors. The other two were transcription errors: the last digit was missing. Finally, their data include an
inconsistency in coding Total Votes for multi-round elections. Sometimes, first round numbers are
while other times it is second round numbers. Because of these problems, we turned to alternative sources
African Elections Database (AED), as it appears to be the most comprehensive
. IDEA and AED values are identical or nearly identical for many elections, but
Elections in Africa and Psephos as a means of triangulating on the
value. AED tended to match these other sources more often than IDEA.
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
(1999)for accuracy.We found
in each of the 15 African
Belgium, and
each colonizer.
Given the theoretical and empirical range of institutional bonuses former British colonies gained
hypothesized that voter turnout should be higher in those countries than
s are the excluded group in the regression analysis,
s will produce
lower in any of
former Belgian and
, given their more limited efforts
during colonial times.
Reynolds 2008, 320-23).
established ties between
key predictor of
ur expectation is that greater ethnic
concern over the
sponsor election boycotts and electoral violence.
people from showing themselves at polling stations, lest they be
annual editions
of the population
ethnic group. For instance, if the largest ethnic group comprises 32
Scored as such, a largervalue implies
and greater ethnic
with a standard
measured in the same manner as ethnic pluralism. Data, again, are
Scores for religious pluralism
to 76.2 percent for Mozambique in 2012.
the country is the most religiously
. In Mozambique the largest religious group is Catholic,
The average value for
data. Two were simple copy-paste
errors. The other two were transcription errors: the last digit was missing. Finally, their data include an
round elections. Sometimes, first round numbers are used,
se problems, we turned to alternative sources
to be the most comprehensive
for many elections, but
as a means of triangulating on the
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Demographic Controls:As attested to in
positively correlated with voter turnout (Geys 2006, 653).
population is used here, as elsewhere
education system. Data were gathered from the
10 percent(Senegal in 1988) to
is a mean value of about 52 percent
Population Density is used as a proxy for access to vot
rural nature of many parts of Africa,
easier by reducing the distance necessary to travel
the number of people per square kilometer
Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
with Gabon in the middle single digits (3.8 persons per square kilometer in 1993) and Burundi
and Rwanda at the extreme high end with about 300 to 400 persons per square kilometer over the
last decade.
Classic Controls:Three additional
control considerations in voter turnout studies. The first
established and important control variable
(1989) suggest that when the chief executive and the legislature are elected
is increased media attention and
efforts (see also Geys2006, 652
‘an added election on the ballot spreads the cost of voting
variable is generated,scored‘1’
uncover a positive association with voter turnout
Database (2013).
SeminalElections is another
variance in voter turnout. Previous work on turnout in Latin America and Eastern Europe has
found much higher rates in seminal elections (Kostadinova and Power 2007). Specifically, we
score an election as ‘seminal’ if it is the first
many of these cases, individuals
different political parties for the first time in a generation (Bratton
The ability to have a democratic voice
increase the rate of voter involvement
is the first to occur after regime c
Data were gathered from the African Elections Database
The final variableincluded in
country in the year the election was held
Rights’ and ‘Civil Liberty’ scores,
et al. 2004, 921; Burkhart and Lewis
of the two dimensions range from 1 (most
from ‘2’ to ‘14’ when the indices
for varying degrees of democratic
lowest score, indicating greater freedom,
cycles (a combined score of 3)
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Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
As attested to in studies of other parts of the world, education tends to be
positively correlated with voter turnout (Geys 2006, 653). Literacy, as a percentage of
as elsewhere (Schraufnagel and Sqouraki 2005), as a proxy for
gathered from the CIA World Factbook. Literacy scores range from
(Senegal in 1988) to over 85 percent in Kenya during the 2000s. Across all cases there
percent.
is used as a proxy for access to voting stations. Given the scattered,
rural nature of many parts of Africa, it is expected that higher population densities make voting
easier by reducing the distance necessary to travel to polling stations. The variable is measured as
per square kilometer. Data were retrieved from the U
Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Density varies widely across Sub-Saharan Africa,
with Gabon in the middle single digits (3.8 persons per square kilometer in 1993) and Burundi
Rwanda at the extreme high end with about 300 to 400 persons per square kilometer over the
Three additionalvariables were included in the analysis as they are common
voter turnout studies. The first, Concurrent Elections
and important control variable in the voter mobilization literature. Cox and Munger
suggest that when the chief executive and the legislature are elected at the same time
and greater sums spent on campaigning and voter mobilization
2).Moreover, others note, because voting is typically a fixed cost,
an added election on the ballot spreads the cost of voting’ (Carter 1984, 201
for concurrent elections, and the expectation is that the test will
a positive association with voter turnout. Data were obtained from the African Elections
another common control variable in analysis of cross
Previous work on turnout in Latin America and Eastern Europe has
in seminal elections (Kostadinova and Power 2007). Specifically, we
if it is the first competitive election following regime change.
individuals were granted the ability to choose between candidates from
parties for the first time in a generation (Bratton and van de Walle 1997, 207)
have a democratic voice, along with the novelty of the enterprise
involvement relative to other elections. Elections are scored
regime change or a switch from single-party to multi-party elections.
African Elections Database (2013).
included in the model is a measure for the democratic characterof
in the year the election was held. We measure this using Freedom House
scores, indicators that appear in other works of a similar genre
Lewis-Beck 1994; Helliwell 1994). Freedom House scores
range from 1 (mostly free) to 7 (least free), resulting in a scale
the indices are combined. TheFreedom House score is intended to
democratic penetration in countries at the time the election was held
, indicating greater freedom, occurs in Ghana in both the 2008 and 2012 election
combined score of 3). Cameroon,with a total score of either 11 or 12throughout the
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
, education tends to be
, as a percentage of the total
as a proxy for a better
. Literacy scores range from
. Across all cases there
ing stations. Given the scattered,
that higher population densities make voting
The variable is measured as
retrieved from the United Nations
Saharan Africa,
with Gabon in the middle single digits (3.8 persons per square kilometer in 1993) and Burundi
Rwanda at the extreme high end with about 300 to 400 persons per square kilometer over the
variables were included in the analysis as they are common
lections, is a well-
Cox and Munger
at the same time there
and voter mobilization
voting is typically a fixed cost,
(Carter 1984, 201n). A dummy
that the test will
African Elections
in analysis of cross-national
Previous work on turnout in Latin America and Eastern Europe has
in seminal elections (Kostadinova and Power 2007). Specifically, we
competitive election following regime change. In
were granted the ability to choose between candidates from
van de Walle 1997, 207).
, along with the novelty of the enterprise is likely to
lections are scored ‘1’whenit
party elections.
democratic characterofthe
Freedom House's ‘Political
that appear in other works of a similar genre (Fornos
Helliwell 1994). Freedom House scores on each
free) to 7 (least free), resulting in a scale that ranges
intended to control
the election was held. The
2008 and 2012 election
11 or 12throughout the
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Scot Schraufnagel
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Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
study period, represents the other extreme.
is positively correlated with voter turnout (Blais 2000; Fornos et al. 2004
Sgouraki 2005, 48). Given the way the scale is
expected to associate with a lower
are expected to produce a negative coefficient.
Results
Results of the regression analysis
expectations, former French colonies are witnessing greater voter turnout levels
British colonies. Given the model configuration
baseline, we learn there has been about 13 percent greater voter tur
average, all else being equal. One possible
ofstate-managed elections in former French colonies
sample may be picking up the characte
van de Walle note (1997) those countries which liberalized the most
voter turnout) at the beginning of the latest wave of democratization were civilian
party regimes, many of which were former French colonies
this finding further study is justified. In the summary we will elaborate in more detail the two
competing theoretical explanations just offered.
(Table 2 goes about here. See appendix Considering the other two colonizers in the analysis it can be noted b
Belgiancolonies (Burundi and Rwanda) have witnessed lower voter turnout than
French colonies after controlling for other factors
former British colonies. The single former
turnoutthan the former French colonies; however
turnout levels in Mozambique and former British colonies, all else being equal.
the former Belgian colonies (Burundi and Rwanda)
has included coups and in the case of Rwanda,
democratic experience does not seem to
process in a manner that would encourage
Both tests of ethnic and religious pluralism return statistically significant coefficients
the direction hypothesized; although the value of the coefficient
size of the value for religious pluralism. Because these two variables
manner it is possible to make this comparison. Substantively, the coefficient representing the
effect of ethnic pluralism suggests that as the largest ethnic group
(say from 70 to 75 percent) voter turnout will increase by about 1.5 percent (.30 x 5), all else
being equal. Considering religious pluralism
from 65 to 60 percent)—indicating greater pluralism
8 A variable commonly used in cross
However, Gabon is the only country in our dataset with
enforced (IDEA). The lack of variation on this othe
the variable in this analysis.
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Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
, represents the other extreme. Others note that the degree of democracy
is positively correlated with voter turnout (Blais 2000; Fornos et al. 2004; Schrau
en the way the scale is operationalized, higher scores (less freedom) are
lower level of voter turnout.8 Put differently, the regression results
are expected to produce a negative coefficient.
regression analysis can be found in Table 2 (see appendix). Contrary to base
expectations, former French colonies are witnessing greater voter turnout levels
. Given the model configuration, with former British colonies establishing the
baseline, we learn there has been about 13 percent greater voter turnout in French colonies, on
One possible explanation is the longer history and greater number
in former French colonies prior to independence. Alternatively, the
sample may be picking up the character of the regimes just prior to independence. Bratton and
van de Walle note (1997) those countries which liberalized the most (perhaps prompting greater
at the beginning of the latest wave of democratization were civilian
, many of which were former French colonies (188). Given the surprising nature of
this finding further study is justified. In the summary we will elaborate in more detail the two
competing theoretical explanations just offered.
See appendix) Considering the other two colonizers in the analysis it can be noted b
colonies (Burundi and Rwanda) have witnessed lower voter turnout than
after controlling for other factors, but also substantially lower voter turnout than
former British colonies. The single former Portuguese colony (Mozambique) had lower voter
turnoutthan the former French colonies; however, there is no statistical difference between voter
Mozambique and former British colonies, all else being equal. Results
the former Belgian colonies (Burundi and Rwanda) are not surprising given recent history, which
in the case of Rwanda, genocidal civil war. The relative short or
democratic experience does not seem to have been sufficient to have legitimized
ocess in a manner that would encouragewidespread participation.
of ethnic and religious pluralism return statistically significant coefficients
although the value of the coefficient for ethnic pluralism is double the
religious pluralism. Because these two variables are measured in the same
it is possible to make this comparison. Substantively, the coefficient representing the
effect of ethnic pluralism suggests that as the largest ethnic group grows in size by five percent
percent) voter turnout will increase by about 1.5 percent (.30 x 5), all else
being equal. Considering religious pluralism, as the largest religious group shrinks
indicating greater pluralism—there will be a correspondi
commonly used in cross-national tests of voter turnout is compulsory or mandatory voting.
Gabon is the only country in our dataset with mandatory voting, and in Gabon the law is not
enforced (IDEA). The lack of variation on this otherwise important consideration causes us to not include
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
egree of democracy, in general,
Schraufnagel and
(less freedom) are
Put differently, the regression results
Contrary to base
expectations, former French colonies are witnessing greater voter turnout levels than former
with former British colonies establishing the
nout in French colonies, on
longer history and greater number
Alternatively, the
r of the regimes just prior to independence. Bratton and
(perhaps prompting greater
at the beginning of the latest wave of democratization were civilian-ruled single-
Given the surprising nature of
this finding further study is justified. In the summary we will elaborate in more detail the two
Considering the other two colonizers in the analysis it can be noted both former
colonies (Burundi and Rwanda) have witnessed lower voter turnout than the former
, but also substantially lower voter turnout than
colony (Mozambique) had lower voter
there is no statistical difference between voter
Results regarding
recent history, which
short or truncated
legitimized the electoral
of ethnic and religious pluralism return statistically significant coefficients in
for ethnic pluralism is double the
measured in the same
it is possible to make this comparison. Substantively, the coefficient representing the
in size by five percent
percent) voter turnout will increase by about 1.5 percent (.30 x 5), all else
shrinks in size (say
correspondingincrease in
national tests of voter turnout is compulsory or mandatory voting.
and in Gabon the law is not
rwise important consideration causes us to not include
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Scot Schraufnagel
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Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
voter turnout of about .75 percent (.15 x 5), on average. Given
variable is about 70 percent, the full range of the religious pluralism consideration is associated
with about a 10.5 percent increase in vot
Results for literacy conf
consideration. The latter is strongly correlated with voter turnout (
multivariate testing it proves to be the variabl
Given much of Sub-Saharan Africa
noted above, it is assumed that population density is capturing something about the accessibility
of polling stations. Hence, if increasing voter participation rates is a priority, one can imagine
concerted effort to make polling stations more geographically convenient might lead to higher
turnout rates.
Two of the three classic
House consideration of democratic rights and liberties does not link
in the testing. It can be noted that a simple bivariate relationship is also not statistically
significant (r = .06; p< .60). This finding could be the result of
buying or the over-reporting of voting
Nichter 2008). If voting irregularities are occurring in more authoritarian settings
expect higher Freedom House scores (less openness) to comport with higher turnout values.
Using this sample of elections, c
interest, are associated with about 1
may also associate with higher
percent, all else being equal.
Summary
This researchtests a model of voter turnout
This type of query only became possible following
elections since the late 1980s and early 1990s
electoral processes has allowed this initial
voter turnout levels in Africa. S
which hasused a colonial legacy
for ethnic and religious pluralism and other considerations
parts of the world. A primary contribution has been the finding that French
colonies,aftercontrolling for population density
higher electoral participation rates than former British colonies.
Given theunexpected result
colonial legacy thesis seems warranted
be found in existing literature that might help to elucidate th
longer duration and greater number of state
colonies,prior to independence,
French colonies' had seven multi
may have‘locked in’ a kind of
elections as a legitimate means of citizen control
elections are not likely to have
their mere presence creates in these same people an appreciation for the process. If this is true, it
causes one to wonder what other facets of democratic development might also be affected
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Scot Schraufnagel& Peter Gowen, 2014, 2(3):1-15
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
voter turnout of about .75 percent (.15 x 5), on average. Given the range of the religious pluralism
the full range of the religious pluralism consideration is associated
with about a 10.5 percent increase in voter turnout (70 x .15).
Results for literacy conform well to expectations, as does the population density
consideration. The latter is strongly correlated with voter turnout (r = .43; p< .001) and in the
multivariate testing it proves to be the variable most strongly linked,statistically, to voter turnout.
Saharan Africa isrural;this finding has important policy implications.
is assumed that population density is capturing something about the accessibility
if increasing voter participation rates is a priority, one can imagine
to make polling stations more geographically convenient might lead to higher
wo of the three classic control variables are statistically significant. Only the Freedom
House consideration of democratic rights and liberties does not link, statistically, to voter turnout
in the testing. It can be noted that a simple bivariate relationship is also not statistically
< .60). This finding could be the result of corruption, in the form of
reporting of voting, in more authoritarian settings (APSA Workshop
voting irregularities are occurring in more authoritarian settings
expect higher Freedom House scores (less openness) to comport with higher turnout values.
Using this sample of elections, concurrent elections, which tend to increase voter awareness and
are associated with about 11 percentincrease in voter turnout. Seminal elections, which
voter interest, arelinked to an increase in voter turnout
a model of voter turnout, across a sample of Sub-Saharan African nation
only became possible following asignificant turn toward consistent
and early 1990s (see Lancaster 1991-92). The relative normalcy of
electoral processes has allowed this initial testing of factors theoretically linked to variance in
Specifically, the research has been able to follow the line of work
a colonial legacy thesis to study democratic transitions in Africa, while controlling
for ethnic and religious pluralism and other considerations that matter for voter turnout in other
. A primary contribution has been the finding that French
for population density and other considerations,are associate
participation rates than former British colonies.
unexpected result regarding former French colonies additional scrutiny of the
warranted. There are two alternative theoretical arguments that can
existing literature that might help to elucidate the finding. First, it may be
longer duration and greater number of state-managed multi-party elections in former
to independence, is responsible for the finding. Lindberg (2006) has noted
seven multi-party elections prior to independenceand that these experiences
kind of institutional memorythat leads to contemporary acceptance of
elections as a legitimate means of citizen control (112).Put differently, it may be that
not likely to have a substantive effect on the lives of people participating
in these same people an appreciation for the process. If this is true, it
causes one to wonder what other facets of democratic development might also be affected
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
the range of the religious pluralism
the full range of the religious pluralism consideration is associated
as does the population density
< .001) and in the
to voter turnout.
his finding has important policy implications. As
is assumed that population density is capturing something about the accessibility
if increasing voter participation rates is a priority, one can imagine a
to make polling stations more geographically convenient might lead to higher
Only the Freedom
to voter turnout
in the testing. It can be noted that a simple bivariate relationship is also not statistically
corruption, in the form of vote
APSA Workshop 2008;
voting irregularities are occurring in more authoritarian settings we would
expect higher Freedom House scores (less openness) to comport with higher turnout values.
oncurrent elections, which tend to increase voter awareness and
. Seminal elections, which
increase in voter turnoutof about 10
n nation-states.
ward consistent multi-party
The relative normalcy of
of factors theoretically linked to variance in
research has been able to follow the line of work
while controlling
matter for voter turnout in other
. A primary contribution has been the finding that French
associated with
additional scrutiny of the
There are two alternative theoretical arguments that can
may be the case the
in former French
has noted former
and that these experiences
that leads to contemporary acceptance of
it may be that even when
a substantive effect on the lives of people participating in them,
in these same people an appreciation for the process. If this is true, it
causes one to wonder what other facets of democratic development might also be affected by de
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development Website: http://www.rcmss.com. ISSN: 2354
Scot Schraufnagel
10
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
jure electoral experiences.9 Complimenting this explanation is the unique way each set of former
European colonies achieved independence. Former French colonies voted themselves
independent via plebiscite (Gilbert and Reynolds 2008
subsequent citizen judgment of electoral legitimacy.
We must also consider the contentions of Bratton and van de Walle (1997) who suggest
the type of regime change can influence subsequent democratic outcomes.
most recent switches from single
moderately exclusionary authoritarian regimes which liberalized the most
broader multi-party experiences
more in law than in fact. Put differently,
regimes, witnessed the greatest liberalization and made the largest leaps toward
When protests grew in the 1980s
hoped to remain in power, was more legitimate
1997, 187-88). Importantly, for our purposes there is a match between many of the f
colonies in our sample and those nation
civilian single-party systems.
It is also important for us to
fractionalization. Early researche
voter turnout occurs under conditions of greater ethnic diversity
associates with more ethnic based political parties and more difficult elections
under conditions of ethnic diversity
moderates, people less enamored by politics, and others with justifiable fears related to electoral
violence are less likely to show themselves at poll
salient. If corroborated this finding suggests the need for political parties that cut across ethnic
cleavages. It has long been argued that
ethnicity, class, religion, or geography has important implications for democratic development
(La Palombara and Weiner 1966; on Nigeria see Jinadu 1985).
Interestingly, we find that
This is not to suggest that political parties should be based on religious affiliations. Instead, our
suspicions, based on previous research (Fish 200
country that citizen loyalty is to
assume there is some critical level or cut point that might cause a country’s citizens, in the
aggregate, to tip toward an apolitical posture that decreases the salience and value of elections.
Indeed, when we test a dummy variable scored one when religious pluralism was lower than .20,
suggesting the dominant religion has over 80 percent of the population as members
is over 10 percent lower, on average
preserving the full range of the religious pluralism variable.
Finally, the suite of control
expected. Only, the combined Freedom House score proved less substantial than
expect. A more authoritarian political posture is not statistically linked to less v
effect of fower civil liberties and civil rights might be dampened by vote buying and election
9 Anderson and Dodd (2005) in their work on democratic transition in Nicaragua suggest there is something
akin to ‘democratic learning’ that takes place in the earliest stages of democratic development that can
translate into thoughtful and meaningful electoral outcomes.
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Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
Complimenting this explanation is the unique way each set of former
colonies achieved independence. Former French colonies voted themselves
Gilbert and Reynolds 2008). This experience alone might be shaping
subsequent citizen judgment of electoral legitimacy.
We must also consider the contentions of Bratton and van de Walle (1997) who suggest
of regime change can influence subsequent democratic outcomes. They note during the
from single-party to multi-party elections in Africa it was the subset of
moderately exclusionary authoritarian regimes which liberalized the most.Countries
s liberalized less, and military authoritarian regimes democratized
Put differently, the middle range of countries, civilian single
, witnessed the greatest liberalization and made the largest leaps toward democrati
in the 1980s, the next step for many of the middle-range regimes, i
was more legitimate multi-partyelections (Bratton and van de Walle
Importantly, for our purposes there is a match between many of the f
colonies in our sample and those nation-states that Bratton and van de Walle characterize as
It is also important for us to reiterate our supporting findings regarding
. Early researchers on this topic likely are not surprised by our finding that lower
voter turnout occurs under conditions of greater ethnic diversity. Others note, fractionalization
associates with more ethnic based political parties and more difficult elections. Electora
diversity is often the norm. This study is suggesting that perhaps
moderates, people less enamored by politics, and others with justifiable fears related to electoral
violence are less likely to show themselves at polling stations when ethno-political rivalry is
If corroborated this finding suggests the need for political parties that cut across ethnic
argued that the factional basis of political parties, whether based on
ethnicity, class, religion, or geography has important implications for democratic development
(La Palombara and Weiner 1966; on Nigeria see Jinadu 1985).
Interestingly, we find that increased religious diversity may lead to higher vo
This is not to suggest that political parties should be based on religious affiliations. Instead, our
suspicions, based on previous research (Fish 2002), are that when a single religion dominates a
country that citizen loyalty is to their religion and not the political process. It is reasonable to
assume there is some critical level or cut point that might cause a country’s citizens, in the
aggregate, to tip toward an apolitical posture that decreases the salience and value of elections.
ed, when we test a dummy variable scored one when religious pluralism was lower than .20,
suggesting the dominant religion has over 80 percent of the population as members
is over 10 percent lower, on average, a finding that is stronger than what we obtained when
full range of the religious pluralism variable.
Finally, the suite of control variables incorporated into the model delivered results as
he combined Freedom House score proved less substantial than
A more authoritarian political posture is not statistically linked to less voter turnout. The
civil liberties and civil rights might be dampened by vote buying and election
Anderson and Dodd (2005) in their work on democratic transition in Nicaragua suggest there is something
that takes place in the earliest stages of democratic development that can
translate into thoughtful and meaningful electoral outcomes.
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
Complimenting this explanation is the unique way each set of former
colonies achieved independence. Former French colonies voted themselves
. This experience alone might be shaping
We must also consider the contentions of Bratton and van de Walle (1997) who suggest
hey note during the
t was the subset of
Countries that had
and military authoritarian regimes democratized
civilian single-party
democratization.
regimes, if they
Bratton and van de Walle
Importantly, for our purposes there is a match between many of the former French
states that Bratton and van de Walle characterize as
garding ethnic
rs on this topic likely are not surprised by our finding that lower
fractionalization
lectoral violence
is often the norm. This study is suggesting that perhaps
moderates, people less enamored by politics, and others with justifiable fears related to electoral
political rivalry is
If corroborated this finding suggests the need for political parties that cut across ethnic
, whether based on
ethnicity, class, religion, or geography has important implications for democratic development
increased religious diversity may lead to higher voter turnout.
This is not to suggest that political parties should be based on religious affiliations. Instead, our
), are that when a single religion dominates a
. It is reasonable to
assume there is some critical level or cut point that might cause a country’s citizens, in the
aggregate, to tip toward an apolitical posture that decreases the salience and value of elections.
ed, when we test a dummy variable scored one when religious pluralism was lower than .20,
suggesting the dominant religion has over 80 percent of the population as members, voter turnout
at we obtained when
incorporated into the model delivered results as
he combined Freedom House score proved less substantial than one would
oter turnout. The
civil liberties and civil rights might be dampened by vote buying and election
Anderson and Dodd (2005) in their work on democratic transition in Nicaragua suggest there is something
that takes place in the earliest stages of democratic development that can
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development Website: http://www.rcmss.com. ISSN: 2354
Scot Schraufnagel
11
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
rigging in more authoritarian settings (APSA Work
our finding related to the control variables population
seminal elections should not be overlooked. What these findings suggest is that for all intents and
purposes, voter turnout in this sample of African elections, on some level,
in other parts of the world. Using the same control variables that others
desperate cultural and geographic contexts we find statistically signi
particular, our finding regarding population density is not only consistent with previous literature
(Schraufnagel and Sgouraki 200
turnout levels: more geographical
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Appendix
Table 1.
Countries and Years Included in the Analysis:Including Former Colonizer and Average Turnout ValueCountry Colonizer
Benin France
Botswana Britain
Burkina Faso France
Burundi Belgium
Cameroon France
Gabon France
Gambia Britain
Ghana Britain
Kenya Britain
Malawi Britain
Mozambique Portugal
Rwanda Belgium
Senegal France
Tanzania Britain
Togo France
Table 2.
Turnout of Voting Age Population in 15 Select African NationGeneralized Least Squares Regression
Colonial Power (Britain omitted):
France
Belgium
Portugal
Key Considerations:
Ethnic Pluralism
Religious Pluralism
Demographic Controls:
Population Density
% Population Literate
Classic Controls:
Concurrent Election
Seminal Election
Freedom House (combined)
Constant
Wald Chi2
R2 (overall)
n
*** p< .001; ** p< .01; * p< .05; tp< .10 (one
Note: Standard errors clustered around 15 country values.
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December. ISSN: 2354-158X (Online) ISSN: 2346-724X (Print)
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Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
Countries and Years Included in the Analysis:Including Former Colonizer and Average Turnout ValueYears Included Avg. Turnout of VAP
1991, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2001,
2003, 2006, 2007, 2011 70%
1989, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 48%
1991, 1992, 1997, 1998, 2002,
2005, 2007, 2010, 2012 35%
2005, 2010 65%
1988, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2004,
2007, 2011 49%
1993, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2009,
2011 43%
1996, 1997, 2001, 2002, 2006,
2007, 2011, 2012 48%
1992 (2), 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008,
2012 66%
1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2013 48%
1993, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 75%
1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 51%
2003, 2008, 2010 92%
1988, 1993 (2), 1998, 2000, 2001,
2007 (2), 2012 (2) 36%
1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 52%
1992, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2003,
2005, 2007, 2010 80%
Turnout of Voting Age Population in 15 Select African Nation-States:Multi-Party Elections, 1988Generalized Least Squares Regression for Cross-Sectional Time-Series Data
Exp. Sign Coefficient (robust s.e.)
- 13.01 (4.02)***
- -55.76(11.25)***
- -6.71 (8.17)
- -.30(.06) ***
+ .15 (.08) *
+ .28 (.05) ***
+ .22 (.09) **
+ 11.31 (5.22) *
+ 9.80 (4.22)*
- -.97 (.74)
27.14 (6.97) ***
6915.32 ***
.55
92
(one-tailed tests)
Note: Standard errors clustered around 15 country values.
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
Countries and Years Included in the Analysis:Including Former Colonizer and Average Turnout Value Avg. Turnout of VAP
Party Elections, 1988-2013
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development Website: http://www.rcmss.com. ISSN: 2354
Scot Schraufnagel
15
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
Author Biographies
Scot Schraufnagel is Graduate Director and Associate Professor of Political Science at Northern Illinois
University. He is a former Peace Corps volunteer, serving in Sierra Leone, West Africa. His research
interests include cross-national voter turnout, politic
three books and his research appears in leading political science journals such as the
Political Science and Political Science Quarterly
Peter Gowen is an Online Analytics Coor
Center at Northern Illinois University. He has MA degrees in both computer science and political science
from Northern Illinois University.
Journal of Good Governance and Sustainable Development in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December. ISSN: 2354-158X (Online) ISSN: 2346-724X (Print)
Scot Schraufnagel& Peter Gowen, 2014, 2(3):1-15
Research Centre for Management and Social Studies
is Graduate Director and Associate Professor of Political Science at Northern Illinois
University. He is a former Peace Corps volunteer, serving in Sierra Leone, West Africa. His research
national voter turnout, political parties, and legislative processes. He is the author of
three books and his research appears in leading political science journals such as the American Journal of
Political Science Quarterly.
is an Online Analytics Coordinator for the Faculty Development and Instruction Design
Center at Northern Illinois University. He has MA degrees in both computer science and political science
in Africa (JGGSDA), Vol. 2, No 3, December, 2014.
is Graduate Director and Associate Professor of Political Science at Northern Illinois
University. He is a former Peace Corps volunteer, serving in Sierra Leone, West Africa. His research
al parties, and legislative processes. He is the author of
American Journal of
dinator for the Faculty Development and Instruction Design
Center at Northern Illinois University. He has MA degrees in both computer science and political science
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