WHAT IS HAPPENING TO OUR WORLD … AND WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?!
KATHARINE HAYHOE
a climate for change!
America’s first climate refugees: ALASKA
Frozen ground is melting & eroding
The people of Newtok, AK
have already been driven from
their homes.
Kivalina may be next.
!"#$ %&'(%
What is happening to our world?
The Earth is getting warmer …
9 of last 10 years warmest on record
2000s: warmest decade on record
… despite recent claims of “cooling”
It’s happening faster and faster
And this is just a fraction of total heating.
Sea level is rising, as ice sheets melt
Arctic sea ice is shrinking
!! !"##$%&'$(&)*$&$+,$-,&.$*%$('$.&/01234&56$%&7(',&83&9%'&
!! :*$1;%$$&'"##$%'&7)<$79&*5##5-&=),>)-&?&.$*(.$'&
Blomstrandbrennen Glacier in Norway
1922 1992
Too much water, as glaciers melt
Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand
Too much water, as glaciers melt
Orubare Glacier, Uganda
Too much water, as glaciers melt
Shepard Glacier, Glacier National Park, USA
When the park was created: over 150 glaciers
In 2005: 27 glaciers remaining
)**+%,-,.%
Too much water, as glaciers melt
The Rhone glacier in the Bernese Oberland, Switzerland
Too much water, as glaciers melt
Not enough water, as others are in drought
Central Africa
Ecosystems shifting, as temperatures warm
Where you live today feels like it used to
~200 miles south, just 25 years ago.
Our world is changing
!"#$%!#&'(#%)*&
$+,-./0&12345/6.7,40&-38&2914:&
1-:;+3<4:/&2=&/>:+3<&-:4&?2@4:+3<&ABC&@447/&4-:,+4:&+3&914&54-:D&
'E%FG%)*&H#I('&")J&($")G'&
H4394:&2=&;,64;4::5&>:286.K23&1-/&/1+L48&
32:91@-:80&=:2M&N-+34&92&O64;4.D&
Our world is changing
!PG#!N!&E!"G&
#4.2:8&1+<1&94M>4:-96:4/&-38&
14-9&@-Q4/&CR&M2:4&=:4S6439D&
Our world is changing
Our world is changing
J#IT*EG&
H:2>&,2//4/&2=&UVW&>4:&
54-:&/+3.4&AXYZ/D&
(!'G'&NI[%)*&)I#GE&
$4//&.2,8&8-5/&92&744>&
:48&-39/&\&768]6&-9&;-5&
Our world is changing
Our world is changing
Responses to warming
temperatures seen in
more than 26,000 physical
and biological systems
around the world.
!"#$ % $/&%
Are these conditions unusual?
“Natural” thermometer records
Conditions today are unusual in the
context of the last 2,000 years …
Today!
… and even the last 6,000 years.
Today!
!"#$ % $0# ( (%
Why is this happening?
Could it be the sun?
Today!
What about natural cycles?
What about natural cycles?
An extra “blanket” around the Earth
GE!&)"GT#"$
&*#!!)EIT'!&!FF!HG&
&&&&3-96:-,,5&+3.:4-/4/
&!-:91 /̂&94M>4:-96:4&;5&
&_Z2F&
GE!&!)E")H!J
&*#!!)EIT'!&!FF!HG&&&&
&&&&1-/&-:K`.+-,,5&+3.:4-/48
&!-:91 /̂&94M>4:-96:4&;5
&ADa2F&
We produce heat-trapping gases
From our factories, cars, homes, farms
Who is responsible?
Last year, annual emissions from China caught up with those from the US.
How do we know it’s us?
Quantifying the human influence
Quantifying the human influence
!"#$ % 1&2#%
But what about …
It’s snowing today! Record cold!
b!"GE!#c&E2@&
.238+K23/&.1-3<4&
=:2M&8-5&92&8-50&2:&
4Q43&54-:&92&54-:&
Bd&63>:48+.9-;,4e&
It’s snowing today! Record cold!
b!"GE!#c&E2@&
.238+K23/&.1-3<4&
=:2M&8-5&92&8-50&2:&
4Q43&54-:&92&54-:&
Bd&63>:48+.9-;,4e&
H$%N"G!c&G14&,23<B
94:M&-Q4:-<4&2=&
@4-914:&2Q4:&
84.-84/&
Bd&Q4:5&>:48+.9-;,4e&
Maybe it’s just
the urban heat
island effect.
b14:4&>42>,4&
,+Q4&
b14:4&+9 /̂&
@-:M+3<&=-/94/9&
!"!Q4:591+3<&8+/.6//48&+3&914&/92,43&4M-+,/&1-8&;443
&>6;,+/148&+3&914&/.+43K`.&,+94:-96:4&=2:&54-:/&
!"f&+384>438439&:4.2:8/&2=&<,2;-,&94M>4:-96:4&=:2M&)"'"0
&)I""0&-38&g->-3&/12@&/-M4&@-:M+3<&9:438/&
!"Ch0ZZZ&>15/+.-,&-38&;+2,2<+.-,&/5/94M/&:4?4.9&/-M4
&@-:M+3<&9:438/&
WIGGIN&$%)!c&"&=4@&>4:/23-,&4M-+,/&1-Q4&32
&+M>-.9&23&2Q4:-,,&6384:/9-38+3<&91-9&16M-3
&-.KQ+95&+/&8:+Q+3<&8-3<4:26/&,4Q4,/&2=&<,2;-,
&@-:M+3<D&
Didn’t those stolen emails disprove it?
Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels].
Climatic change is being brought about by human-induced increases in the concentration of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels.
Aren’t scientists always disagreeing?
Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels].
Climatic change is being brought about by human-induced increases in the concentration of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
“The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature”
Guy Callendar, 1938
Aren’t scientists always disagreeing?
Humans are the only explanation.
!"#$ % 1 3 4 (%
Why should I care?
We’re already concerned about this
What can we expect in the future?
But this is what’s coming next.
What can we expect in the future?
Future change depends on our choices now
Hot and sticky summers:
MD under lower emissions
SC under higher emissions
What does this mean … for Massachusetts?
Summers: hot and humid
Winters: warmer,
but just as much snow
SUMMER
WINTER
What does this mean … for Chicago?
What does this mean … for the US?
Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC)
Historical
What does this mean … for the US?
Future: Lower Emissions
Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC)
What does this mean … for the US?
Future: Higher Emissions
Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC)
This century: hundreds of millions of refugees
In 2009: 300,000 deaths per year
300 million already at risk from climate change
What does this mean … for the world?
In 2000: 150,000 deaths per year
More frequent & severe heat waves
What does this mean … for Europe?
European Heat Wave of 2003
>70,000 deaths
What does this mean … for Australia?
More droughts & wildfires
like the devastating fires
of January 2009.
More unpredictable
weather conditions.
What does this mean … for Latin America?
$%N"0&(!#T&
Y&M+,,+23&>42>,4&
,4//&91-3&Ci&:-+3&>4:&5:&
A&;+,,+23&@2:,8B@+84&
84>438&23&<,-.+4:&
M4,9&=2:&@-94:&
What does this mean … for California?
Half of
California’s
water comes
from mountain
snow.
70-90% of that
could be gone
before the end
of the century.
Warmer water =
Stronger tropical
storms
What does this mean … for our coasts?
Hurricane power and ocean temperature
Rising sea level
What does this mean … for our coasts?
Tuvalu, South Pacific
… and even entire nations?
Today, our neighbors are being harmed
#+/+3<&/4-&,4Q4,/0&@+84/>:4-8&8:26<190&-38
&:->+8,5&8+/->>4-:+3<&<,-.+4:/&-:4&-,:4-85
&91:4-943+3<&M+,,+23/&@+91&,2//&2=&@-94:0
&=2280&-38&4Q43&,+=4D&
G28-50&26:&<,2;-,&34+<1;2:/j914&>22:&-38
&>42>,4&.6::439,5&/9:-3<4:/&92&6/j-:4&M2/9
&Q6,34:-;,4&92&1-:M&=:2M&.,+M-94B:4,-948
&+M>-.9/D&
B&!"#$%&'()"*+,"#-'./)"
!"#$ % 5 3 6%
What can we do about it?
We have 3 choices:
kb4&;-/+.-,,5&1-Q4&91:44&.12+.4/c&M+K<-K230
&-8->9-K230&-38&/6l4:+3<D&&
b4^:4&<2+3<&92&82&/2M4&2=&4-.1D&G14
&S64/K23&+/&@1-9&914&M+R&+/&<2+3<&92&;4D&&
G14&M2:4&M+K<-K23&@4&820&914&,4//
&-8->9-K23&@+,,&;4&:4S6+:48&-38&914&,4//
&/6l4:+3<&914:4&@+,,&;4Di&
& & & &789:%08;<=>:%& & & &(:4/+8439 /̂&'.+43.4&"8Q+/2:m&E-:Q-:8&T3+Q4:/+95&
1. Educate ourselves
How climate change affects us here in the US US Global Change Program
www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts
How we know it’s happening and
why it matters climateforchangethebook.com
2. Prepare for what we can’t avoid
Conserve the
resources we have
Protect ourselves from
what we can
3. Reduce our own impact
stop using this start using this Each US household replacing 1 light bulb
= taking 1,000,000 cars off the road (+$30 savings per bulb)
stop using this start using this
4. Support fundamental change
Renewable energy gives us clean air and water, and home-grown energy sources that will never run out. So, why not?
Change is happening
1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
167 nations agree to reduce heat-trapping gas emissions, to
prevent dangerous human interference with climate system.
Change is
possible
THE END
1&# %?&#( % 3 ' 1&#?"$ 3&' %
///@A"$0"# 3' (0"B0&( @C&? %
///@C D 3?"$ 1&#C0"'E($0(F&&A @C&? %
Top Related