A Case Study of the 6 August 2012 962 hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone
Eric AdamchickUniversity at Albany, State University of New York
Albany, New York
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SEA ICE AREA (MILLION SQUARE KM) FROM 1979 – 2012. IMAGE COURTESY OF THE POLAR RESEARCH GROUP, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN.
Motivation
Motivation
• The 962 hPa Arctic Ocean cyclone occurred when the Arctic sea ice area was at a record low.
• If the loss of sea ice continues on the current trajectory what will be the effects on mid-latitude circulation patterns as well as local climates.
300-hPa Geopotential Height Anomalies. Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/
850-hPa Temperature Anomalies. Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/
300-hPa Vector Wind Anomalies. Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder Colorado from their Web site at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/
Cyclogenesis and Development
• Warm air advection from antecedent cyclone shifted the thermal gradient poleward
• Cyclogenesis of 962 hPa Arctic Ocean Cyclone
• Phasing of the cyclones’ vorticity and subsequent rapid deepening
120803/0600 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), QG Height Tendency 700-300 hPa Differential Thermal Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
120803/1800 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
L1L2
120803/1800 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [cool shading (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
120804/1800 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
120805/0000 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
120805/0600 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
120805/1200 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
120805/1800 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
120806/0000 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
120806/0600 500-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Absolute Vorticity [shaded (10-5 s-1)], QG Height Tendency Absolute Vorticity Advection [shaded (10-13 s-3)], NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
120804/1800 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
L1L2
120805/0000 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
L1L2
120805/0600 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
L1L2
120805/1200 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
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120805/1800 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
L
120806/0000 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
L
120806/0600 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
L
120806/1200 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
L
120806/1800 300-hPa Geopotential Height (dam), Isotachs [shaded (m s-1)], and Sea Level Pressure (hPa), NCEP .5o GFS Analysis Data.
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Summary• Warm air advection from the antecedent storm strengthened and
shifted the anomalous baroclinic zone poleward.
• Cyclogenesis occurred in a coupled jet environment collocated with the anomalous baroclinic zone.
• Rapid intensification began when the vorticity from both storms phased and continued in the poleward exit region of a 60 m s-1 jet streak.
• The 962 hPa Arctic Ocean cyclone occurred during a record minimum of Northern Hemispheric sea ice area.
Future Research
• Will storm frequency and strength increase in the absence of sea ice?
• What will be the effects on global circulation patterns?
• Will major storm tracks shift poleward?
• What effects will this have on local climates?
Acknowledgements
• Dr. Kristen Corbosiero• Dr. Paul Roundy• Dr. Lance Bosart• Ross Lazear
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