Climate Change Scenarios for Southeast Alaska
A brief summary based on the National Park Service Climate Change Scenarios Planning workshop held in Juneau, AK February 2012
Understanding the Science of Climate Change
There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet is warming
How this warming will affect climate systems around the globe is an enormously complex question
Uncertainty and variability are inevitable
Climate change presents significant risks to natural and cultural resources
Understanding how to address uncertainty is an important part of climate change planning
http://geology.com/news/labels/Global-Warming.html
Why Scenario Planning?
Scenario planning allows managers to address multiple possible futures that are:
▪ Relevant▪ Divergent▪ Challenging▪ Plausible
What is most important?
What changes are most likely?
What changes will have the greatest impact?
What are we best able to predict?
How can we adapt to those changes?
www.snap.uaf.edu
What is SNAP’s role?
Scenarios are linked to SNAP modelsBasic climate models Linked climate models
▪ Season length▪ Shifting plants and animals
(biomes and ecosystems)▪ Soil temperature and
permafrost▪ Water availability▪ Forest fire
Models of how people use land and resources
Other models linked to climate and human behavior
Soil temperature at one meter depth: 1980’s, 2040’s, and 2080’s (Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF)
Southeast Alaska temperature projections for Dec-Jan for selected decades
(5 model average,A1B scenario)
Winter 2090s
Winter 2050s
Winter 2010s
Southeast Alaska Day of FreezeProjections
5 Model Average – A1B scenario
Southeast Alaska Day of ThawProjections
5 Model Average – A1B scenario
Southeast Alaska Precipitation Projections(Annual Decadal Average)5 Model Average – A1B
scenario
Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process
What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them?
What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address?
What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?
How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories?
As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions?
The 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process
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Step One: OrientWhat is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address?
How can NPS managers best preserve the natural and cultural resources and values within their jurisdiction in the face of climate change?
How will climate change effects impact the landscapes within which management units are placed over the next 50 to 100 years?
To answer this challenge, we need to explore a broader question:
Klondike Gold Rush Nat’l Historical ParkPhoto credits: Jay Cable
Sitka National Historical Parkhttp://www.nps.gov/sitk/index.htm
Glacier Bay National ParkPhoto credit: Stuart Edwards
Copyright © 2010 Monitor Company Group, L.P. — ConfidentialERT-HLY 2010 1
CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESBIOREGION: ______________
Over the next 50 – 100 years, what will happen to . . . ?
Step Two: Explore
What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?
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Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty
Extreme Weather Events (storms/precipitation)
-20%
+50%
Seasonality of Water Flow Historical flow/timing
abnormal flow/timing
Driver 1
Dri
ver
2
Combining two selected drivers creates four possible futures
1
2
4
3
CLIMATE SCENARIOSBIOREGION: ______________
Seasonality of Water Flow
2 1
4 3
Extr
eme
Even
ts
More extreme events (+50%)
Lower extreme events (-20%)
Abnormal flow rates/timing
Historical flow rates/timing
“Nested Scenarios”?
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Senior commitment, international alignment, long term perspectives
Lack of senior commitment, varied
approaches/alignment, short term concerns
Broad understanding Heightened urgency
Widespread indifference Competing concerns
“Big problems, big efforts”
“Riots and revolution”
“Wheel-spinning”
“Is anyone out there?”
Nesting each story in a social framework creates 16 possibilities:
Socio-Political
Nested Scenario DetailsBIOREGION:___________
Describe This World in 2030
Major Impacts on the Bioregion
Issues Facing Management
BioregionClimate_______________
Step 3: Synthesize
The 16 possible futures created in the preceding steps must be narrowed down to 3-4 scenarios that are relevant, divergent, challenging, and pertinent. Each has it’s own narrative (story).
Impacts: Example from one scenario
More and more annual disasters are striking SE AK, and gov’t and people are working together to deal with major issues and to find and coordinate responses.
Community health and economic health are both emphasized, meaning not just solutions such as starting a hatchery, but also finding holistic solutions to maintain ways of life.
If fisheries and forestry are lost, what is replacing them? Sustainable tourism? Selective logging? Renewable energy, Biomass? Tidal? Wind? Geothermal? Hydro? All these resources are so close together, it’s unusual.
Individuals all feel interdependence and feel their important role in the communities.
Seasonal crop failures balanced by other crops – shifting resources rather than eliminated.
A combination of fire and floods destroy the cultural resources in Skagway and it becomes a ghost town and a more remotely managed park
50% of the small communities have to evacuate due to natural disasters, and are reabsorbed into other communities.
Management faces infrastructure upgrades, need to be more disaster resistant
Collapse of commercial fishery Reduced potable water availability Loss of life – or shifting from death from social ills to
death via disaster.
Transportation disruptions with ferries, airports.. Energy, buildings, waste disposal, social health
networks, communications Willingness and ability to create and pay for
engineered solutions, eg hatcheries Mariculture? Logging out the dead trees, but planting something
that matches new ecosystem conditions Decide how to switch from wilderness to more
managed areas mixed with areas of dynamic change
Parks are now managed for different resources. There used to be glaciers in Yosemite, but people still go there. Different visitor experience is being managed in different parks – to see new energy sources, to see glaciers in Wrangell St Elias., from soft adventure to extreme adventure.
More flight-seeing to see reduced glaciers Major shifts in habitats, species, and tourism.
Recolonization by willow in deglaciated areas, attracts moose and deer. Forest becomes grassland or engineered forests. Might attract elk, bison, grouse. Mountain goats and other species move higher.
Health emergencies help spark adaptations and change.
Reduction in timber productivity Invasive species that may wipe out local species, in
addition to more benign range shift.
Step 4: ActCategorizing Options to Help Set Strategy
Robust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or at least not hurt you too much) in any of the four scenarios
OR
Bet the Farm / Shaping: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality
OR
Hedge Your Bets / Wait and See: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size
OR
Core / Satellite: Place one major bet, with one or more small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, and real options
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Core
RobustSatellite
Satellite
Bet theFarm
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Core
RobustSatellite
Satellite
Bet theFarm
Important Management ActionsActions common to all scenarios
Assess the need for fire and flood plans
Mitigate natural degraded habitat
Increased collaboration between tribes and government
Refer to climate change when making plans
Emergency op plans for fire, glaciers, fjords, …
Proactively protect, e.g., roads/trails away from sensitive spots
Reduce cost by more energy-efficient utilities/opportunities
Revitalize programs to cover recreation shoulder seasons
Community forums
Vulnerability assessments for culturally-sensitive sites
Monitor stream flow, forest health, glacier positions/mass, land cover change
Risk assessment for glacial outburst floods, emergency planning
Conduct culturally-sensitive subsistence harvest surveys to ensure access
Raise awareness at a local level of climate change impacts
Adjust regulations to address sub needs, seasons, bag limits
Evaluate capacity to adjust to changing demands
Cultural Implications
Erosion of traditional sites Conflicts over wildlife uses Conflicts over subsistence regulations Timing of fish runs/bird migrations off Longer season for hiking trail use Historical resources damaged or lost Loss of infrastructure (washouts, etc) –
communities lost/relocated Loss of subsistence resources (salmon, berries, …) New subsistence species/resources (bison, deer,
fish, cougar, elk) Loss of seasonal subsistence patterns Failure of community networks
Cultural adaptation
Increased outreach and education to communities Risk assessment for vulnerable cultural resources &
recovery plan Document oral histories and make accessible Assessment and management of newly recovered
cultural resources Traditional Ecological Knowledge in planning Co-management Invasive management Create cooperation at local level Plan for budget issues Value-based management
How to make hard decisions? Values are changing—need a transparent decision process
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