A 100 Percent Renewable Fueled
Transportation SystemDavid MorrisVice President
Institute for Local [email protected]
Governors’ Ethanol CoalitionMarch 1, 2005
Washington, D.C.
•The U.S. can produce at least 100 Billion gallons of ethanol per year on a sustainable basis
•A 100% renewable-fueled transportation system requires a dual electricity/liquid fuel propulsion system
•Biofuels production significantly benefits farmers and rural areas only when biorefineries are farmer-owned
The Argument
The Prospects for Ethanol
U.S. Ethanol Production Has Tripled Since 2001
Gallons
U.S. and Brazilian Ethanol Production
U.S. ethanol facilities are centered in corn states
The U.S. can produce at least 100 billion gallons of ethanol
on a sustainable basis
Gallons5 DT/acre
Oil receives 3-30x more subsidies than ethanol
Source: Institute for Local Self-Reliance-Oil Data, 1996; Ethanol Data, 2004
An ethanol strategy costs far less than a hydrogen
strategyComponen
t H2 EtOHFuel(GGE)/
future $5/$2.50 $1.70-2.15Vehicle(Incremental Cost/future
$200k/$10k(FC)
$150(FFV)
Fueling Station/# cars per day $500k/10 $50k/200
Storage/Incremental
Cost)? $0
The Need for Electricity
Gasoline consumption is increasing 4x faster than
ethanol consumption(2002-2005)
Gallons
A hybrid future?
Source: IEA March 2004
% of car sales
Plug-in hybrids promise the most efficient
transportation system
mpg-equiv.
Electricity can provide up to 100 percent of vehicle
fuel
%
•Electricity for motors-Renewable Portfolio Standard(e.g. wind, PV, biomass, hydro, etc.)
•Engine fuel-Renewable Energy Standard(e.g. biomass, water, etc.)
A dual renewable fuel strategy for transportation
Maximizing the Benefit to
Agriculture
Additional revenue to farmers
from ethanol sales
# of Plantsmid-2005
Farmer-owned refineries account for almost half of all U.S. ethanol
plants
98
48
Farmer-owned plants produce more ethanol
than ADM
Minnesota Model•Producer Payment-20 cents per gallon•In-state•Up to 15 million gallons a year•For 10 years
•Result•15 plants as of November 2004•About 9,000 farmer owners•Producer payment ending on 75%
of production as of 2006
Transportation fuel could dominate agriculture
markets
Tons
13M
The U.S. Carbohydrate Economy(circa 2050)
Feedstock(tons) 1,000,000,000Ethanol(gals) 80,000,000,000
Chemicals(tons) 250,000,000Fossil Energy
Input 0# of
Biorefineries 2,000# of Owners 1,200,000
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