September 13, 2016
2016 General Managers’ Meeting
Meeting Agenda
8:00 am - 8:30 am Continental Breakfast 8:30 am - 8:45 am Welcome by Mr. Douglas K. Woods 8:45 am - 9:45 am Economic Outlook 9:45 am - 10:00 am BREXIT 10:00 am - 10:15 am Break 10:15 am - 11:00 am IoT of Manufacturing 11:00 am - 11:30 am IMTS 2016 and Beyond 11:30 am – 12:00 pm Open Forum 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm Reception & Luncheon
September 13, 2016
2016 General Managers’ Meeting
Welcome
Mr. Douglas K. Woods President
AMT - The Association For Manufacturing Technology
September 13, 2016
2016 General Managers’ Meeting
Economic Outlook
Jeremy Leonard Director of Industry Services
Oxford Economics
Global Economic Outlook: Sluggish growth amid multiple risks
Jeremy Leonard, Director of Industry Services
AMT General Managers’ Meeting – September 2016
Global outlook: Subpar growth in all regions
Momentum transferring to advanced economies
• World GDP growth slowing to 2.2% in 2016
• Service sector growth model coming to the fore
Oil and commodity prices bottoming out
• Consumer „sugar rush‟ peaking
• Inflation past its low point, to rise next year
Consumers rise to save the day?
• Employment & wages up in US, EU & China
• Business spending remains weak
Policy response both helps and hurts
• Boost from fiscal stimulus in EU, Japan & China
• Unintended responses to monetary policy
Industry consistently lags overall economy
Sluggish global trade is one culprit…
…and weak investment is another
Low oil prices a negative for industry
Global growth only modestly affected by Brexit…
0
1
2
3
4
5
World Japan Eurozone UK US Emergingmarkets
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Aug-16
World: OE growth forecasts for 2016% growth
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
…but quite a different long term story in UK
■Key:
■Policy direction:
■LIB – liberal
■MOD – moderate
■POP – populist
■Trade agreement:
■CUS – customs
union
■BIL – bilateral
accords
■FTA – free trade
agreement
■MFN – most
favoured nation Go to http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/brexit/executive-summary to download
a copy of the Executive Summary of our research programme
UK trades more with EU than vice versa
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Croatia
Slovenia
Estonia
Romania
Austria
Italy
Finland
Bulgaria
Greece
France
Sweden
Denmark
Poland
Germany
Portual
Spain
Hungary
Slovakia
Lithuania
Lavia
Czech
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Belgium
Cyprus
Malta
Ireland
UK exports to EU
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics/ONS
Share of exports to the UK
% of GDP in 2014
„Sugar rush‟ of low oil prices beginning to fade…
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Consumer Confidence
Consumption % y/y
Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Euro area consumer confidence
% balance % y/y
…but robust employment growth takes the baton
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Agriculture
Industry
Construction
Retailing
Business services
Public Sector
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Euro area employment Cont. growth % q/q
Slow improvement in Euro area investment
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Housing investment
Business investment
Source : Oxford Economics/Thomson Reuters
Euro area investment : contributions to growth% q/q
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Housing Investment
Business Investment
Source: Oxford Economics/Thomson Reuters
Euro area investment% y/y
A big miss for Q2 US GDP growth…
Questions to: [email protected]
Is momentum as solid as it looks for H2?
Principal component analysis approach
using 24 economic activity indicators
Employment remains generally upbeat…
Aug 2016
151,000
175,000
204,000
Taking a step back from the volatile monthly data, US labor market continues to mature:
break-even employment ~120,000 jobs/month & we foresee 150,000/month in next 12 months
…and tighter labor markets supporting wage growth
Currently wage growth steady at 2.6% y/y in July
Consumer side of the economy in good shape…
…while exports and investment struggle
Current investment weakness has many causes
Where are the “animal spirits”?
…a strong dollar (?)
…sluggish global growth
…tightening credit conditions
Unprecedented weakness in equipment investment
A permanent state of excess capacity?
Is China investment slowdown accelerating?
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Official industrial output
OE Bottom-up industrial output
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
China: Indicators of industrial activity% year-on-year
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Government trying to compensate
Credit-fuelled growth getting less bang for buck
Cost of ownership favours automotive market…
…but sales are petering out
Fleet age signals exhaustion of pent-up demand
Orders plunge at Boeing & Airbus a concern…
…have airlines overestimated capacity needs?
Risks are tilted to the downside
Economic conditions suggest a Clinton victory…
…but the alternative holds many risks
2015 % share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020United States 17.5 0.3 -0.9 2.1 2.6 2.3 1.9
Eurozone 14.6 2.0 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7
UK 2.0 1.3 0.9 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.6
Eastern Europe 2.2 4.5 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.2
Japan 7.5 -1.2 -1.7 -0.3 0.6 1.3 -0.4
China 21.6 6.1 6.0 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.8
India 2.9 3.2 3.0 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.4
Russia 2.4 -3.0 -0.6 0.7 2.3 2.3 2.2
Brazil 2.4 -8.2 -5.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.2
World 100.0 1.6 1.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9
(Annual percentage changes unless specified)
World: Industrial production forecasts
Global outlook for industrial production
Global Machine Tool Forecast Project
Project overview
The gold standard for 5-year market forecasts of global and national machine tool demand.
Underpinned by Oxford Economics‟ proven macro and sectoral economic models.
Seven subscribing machine-tool organisations around the world:
■ AMT (United States)
■ Cecimo (Europe)
● VDW (Germany)
● MTA (United Kingdom)
■ TMTBA (Taiwan)
■ IMTMA (India)
■ AMTIL (Australia)
Two 100-page reports per year, plus detailed data tables.
Our approach
The market for machine tools is global rather than country-specific
Machine tools demand depends on the global prospects for the industries that are customers for machine tools
The right modelling approach therefore identifies the trends and prospects for those global industries, and the market for machine tools which springs from that
The structure of the global machine tools market is derived from the following inputs:
■ The sum of machine tools consumption across twenty-three key economies
■ The distribution of machine tools sales across the top eight global MT-using industries
The result will be a picture of global demand for machine tools
Countries covered
Americas
Brazil Canada Mexico United States
Asia
China India Indonesia Japan
Malaysia South Korea Taiwan Thailand
Vietnam
Europe
Austria Czech Rep France Germany
Hungary Italy Poland Russia
Turkey Slovakia Spain Switzerland
United Kingdom
These 23 countries account for over 90% of global machine tool
demand (China+Germany+US+Japan = 65%).
Model overview
The MT model is driven by Oxford Economics’ suite of global
economic and sectoral models.
It links drivers of the MT market from the Oxford models to actual
data on MT consumption via econometric modelling and uses these
relationships to predict national MT consumption.
■ Key drivers are investment and output in MT-using sectors, which are
in turn a function of macroeconomic conditions.
■ MT intensity is important factor as well (particularly in emerging
markets)
■ Implicit improvements in MT productivity also taken on board
(important in developed markets)
US MT orders continue downward trend…
Global drivers suggest MT market downgrades
Questions and discussion
Jeremy Leonard
Director of Industry Services
+44 207 803 1429
September 13, 2016
2016 General Managers’ Meeting
BREXIT – A Comment and Open Discussion
James Selka CEO
The Manufacturing Technologies Association
BREXIT - does every cloud have a silver
lining?
James Selka
IMTS International General Managers’ Meeting
Tuesday 13 September 2016
Brexit & what happens next On 23rd June, the UK voted 52:48 to leave the
European Union (EU)
Regionally, there were majorities to remain in London
(60:40), Scotland (62:38) and Northern Ireland
(56:44)
A process of negotiations will only begin when
the UK triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty …
… until then, the UK remains a full member of
the EU …
… although we will not take up our rotation for
the presidency of the EU that was due in 2017
Confidence already slipping …
Source: Bank of England Agents‟ Report, August 2016
CBI Industrial Trends Survey
CBI Industrial Trends Survey
CBI Industrial Trends Survey
MTA Business Survey
Source: MTA Business Trends Survey
MTA Business Survey
Source: MTA Business Trends Survey
… but here is the silver lining
Source: Bank of England
23rd June
The Politics
The politics of Brexit are hugely complex
New PM
New Government Departments - Department for
Exiting the EU and Department for International
Trade
No agreement on a „model‟ for the UK post exit
• Norway –
• Switzerland + ?
• Canada +
The Negotiation
Negotiations will start formally only when Article
50 is triggered - New Year 2017?
The key objective for the MTA (supported by
74% of our members) is to secure access to the
single market for firms based in the UK
Shared objective for most of UK business
community
Trade in goods should be the simple part - most
contentious issue likely to be financial services
September 13, 2016
2016 General Managers’ Meeting
IoT of Manufacturing
Bryce Barnes SR. Manager Machine Builder and Robot Segment
IoT Vertical Solutions Group Cisco
Senior Manager Connected Machines and Robots- Bryce Barnes
Sept 2016
Manufacturing & the Internet of Things
Two Worlds Coming
Together
Two Worlds are Coming Together
Where are Machine Builders?
Manufacturing is Changing
Agenda
What can we do together?
Cisco Confidential
The Digital Revolution is a 4th Industrial
Revolution Digitizing Manufacturing to Capture the Value of the
Internet of Everything
18th Century
Steam
20th Century
Mass Production 70‟s
Robots
Today
Digitization + Smart
Automation
Technology
Progress
Smart
Devices
Digital Manufacturing Priority Investments
#1 Analytics | #2 Connectivity | #3 Automation | #4 Mobility Source: SCM World/Cisco “Smart Manufacturing & the Internet of Things 2015” survey of 418 Manufacturing Business Line Executives and
Plant Managers across 17 vertical industries.
IOT is Accelerating
Source: “The Motley Fool”
50% of all New Cellular
Connections in the first Quarter
of 2016 are M2M & Cars
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-bullish-on-data-for-big-industry-1466718971
64 Million Machines
of factory
machines
are not network
connected
Connected Machines Represent Huge Opportunity 92% of Machines are not connected
IHS 2014 Machines Survey, PWC 2015
IOT potential for the Machine industry is Enormous
Value Flexibility Outcomes Asset Utilization
Is 60% for best in class The average operations
Is way below this
Job Costing Consumables Automation
Visibility Process Optimization
Machine Optimization
As well as….
How does the machine Integrate?
Factory? Cell?
Upstream Downstream
Material Lifecycle Tooling
Continuously
What is Driving IOT for Machine Tools?
Manufacturers are pushing the limits and
driving new production models Quality
Predictable Costs
Loss Reduction
Unplanned outage reduction
The Barriers to IOT connected Machines are real
Fear Platform Business Model
Security
IT Policy
Control Policy
Risk
Craft vs. Automation
Manufacturers will resist 100 Different IOT platforms
In their factories
What is Preventing IOT adoption for Machine Tools?
Digital Machine is a New
Business Model
New Revenue that requires New
Thinking
Services and the way we have
always done it
Machine Builders Tend to be proprietary
Life Cycle Orchestration Management
Data Extraction
DIY
Two Worlds are coming Together
Agenda
Analytics is the Number one focus… But you need Data
#1 Analytics
#2
Connectivity
#3 Automation
#4
Mobility
Source: SCM World/Cisco “Smart Manufacturing & the Internet of Things 2015” survey of 400 Manufacturing Business Line Executives and Plant Managers across 17 vertical industries.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Wearable Devices
Additive Manufacturing/3D Printing
Social and Collaboration Technology
Collaborative Robotics
Plant Floor Video
RFID and Location Technology
Wireless Networks
Cloud Computing
Modern Plant Floor IT (PLM, MES)
Mobile Devices
Factory Automation
Connectivity Technologies
Big Data Analytics
Digital Trends in Manufacturing and Machines
• Most CNC machining is still operator driven…Craft driven
• Movement from Build at any cost to Efficiency is accelerating
• As a service strategies are evolving but not fast enough
• Mechanical & Process innovation are essential but not enough…
The Race To Cloud
Marketplace / Ecosystem
Factory IT
Business alignment
Security
Integration / Connectivity
Platform / Applications
Cloud Services
A New Way of Thinking
Supply Chain Already sees the Cloud Opportunity for Machines
Source: March 2015 UPS Survey of 77 Industrial Machine Manufacturers with $10-$50 million revenue. http://www.manufacturing.net/sites/manufacturing.net/files/newsletter-ads/Final_Industrial_Manufacturing_Whitepaper.pdf
Where are Machine Builders?
Agenda
How to converge on a common language for
Visualization and Integration
Challenges for Machine Builders
Machine
to
Digital Platform
Mechanical + Process
to
Mechanical + Process
Powered by Digital
Standards Platform Innovation
Connected Machine Journey: Where are we?
Platform
Improve
React
See
Connect
Maturity
Discrete Intelligence Continuous
Respond Focus Anticipate
Visualize Understand Target
“Local” Operation Global
How can I introduce new
products faster?
How do I achieve
sustainability?
How can I better manage my
global supply chain?
I need to achieve
real-time visibility
How do I improve
workforce productivity?
How can I
reduce downtime?
I need help capturing knowledge
for my transitioning workforce
How can
innovation drive profits?
I need to improve
product quality
Manufacturers are Grappling with…
Machine Builders respond with repeatable, scaled platforms…
Agenda
What can we do together?
One Language shared by all Machine Tools…
MACHINE TOOL COMMUNICATIONS Complete Data dictionary All Data Items are Time Stamped (UTC). Uses todays Internet standards (HTTP / XML) Common Language Implied Semantics Better Streaming Analytics More secure IOT protocol
Context Machine, Tooling, Process, State
FACTORY WIDE COMMUNICATIONS Unified Communications Framework High Level Flexible, generic data model Support for Binary, Hybrid, or Web Services Interoperability Service Oriented Platform Independence High Availability
Manufacturing Marketplace Place enabled by Cloud
Cloud-Centric Networking, Security, Policy
Core Cloud Services Analytics Building Blocks
Application Enablement Tools
Enterprise/Hybrid Services
Cisco Micro Services
Collaboration SP Video Analytics
Inter-Region Virtual
Private Backbone
Automated Private
VPN Connectivity
Network-optimized
Workload Placement
Managed Public + Private
Cloud
IoT Applications and Services
Third Party
Open
Source Tools
Security Network/Device Management IOE
Global SP Backbone
Dashboard
Basic Cloud
Resource
Monitoring
Network
Performance
Metrics
Deployment/
Management
Tools, PaaS
VNF Library Orchestration, Auto-
Scaling
Federated
Network &
Security
Policies
Compute Storage Database Virtual
Network
LB VPN Hadoop
Service
Chaining
Data Virtualization
Intercloud Fabric support
for heterogeneous
environments
Data
Ingest
App-Level Sovereignty, Privacy Policies
Cloud Services
Analytics
Security
Automation
Partnership
Scale
Outcomes
Orchestration
Analytics
Security
Automation
Scale
Orchestration
Cloud Services
Partnership
Outcomes
Common Data Model for Machine Cells Drives visibility, productivity, and lower cost
IoT Edge Node
Conveyance
CNC Automated
Material Handling
Supervisory Control
IoT Ready Machine
Cells
Robots
Sensors
Video
Digital Cell drives higher OEE, Quality, Efficiency Plug & Play Sensors and Peripherals Embedded compute simplifies data collection Secure Access, Remote Engineering One Integration point, not many
IoT Application Enablement
FAC & 3rd party
applications
IOT Cloud
Mobile Apps
Factory
Digital Machine Cell Integrated & Automated
Fully Automated Machine Cells
September 13, 2016
2016 General Managers’ Meeting
IMTS 2016 and Beyond
Peter Eelman Vice President
Exhibitions & Business Development AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology
I. WELCOME TO IMTS
II. CHICAGO CITY UPDATE
III. IMTS STATISTICS
IV. EVENTS @ IMTS
V. IMTS DISPLAY HIGHLIGHTS
VI. IMTS REGISTRATIONS
VII. IMTS 2018 OUTLOOK
VIII. CCIMT – A NEW EVENT FROM AMT
IX. QUESTIONS
Lucas Museum / East Building Update
McCormick Square Neighborhood
Choose Chicago Updates
Security Update
MAYOR EMANUEL ANNOUNCES THAT CHICAGO O'HARE PEAK TSA WAIT TIMES HAVE DECLINED BY MORE THAN 90 PERCENT SINCE MAY AS A
RESULT OF ADDITIONAL FEDERAL RESOURCES
Security lines at Chicago’s airports significantly improve during one of the busiest summer travel seasons on record
In the midst of one of the busiest travel summer seasons on record, Mayor Rahm Emanuel today announced that Chicago O’Hare International Airport's peak Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint wait times have improved by more than 90 percent. In the month of July, the average peak wait time at O'Hare was seven minutes as compared to 105 minutes in May. This reduction in checkpoint wait times is a result of the roundtable discussion in May between the Mayor, Senator Dick Durbin, federal officials, city officials, airlines and the TSA about ways to reduce wait times in a secure way at both O’Hare and Midway Airports.
"I want to thank our federal partners, especially TSA Administrator Peter Neffenger, for recognizing the impact Chicago's airports have on the national aviation system and providing additional resources to address the unacceptably long wait times last spring," said Mayor Emanuel. "These improved wait times, and the safety and security of travelers, must be maintained, which is why I urge Congress to continue to fully fund the TSA to ensure our airports have the staffing and resources required to operate safely and efficiently."
The significant reduction in TSA wait times at both of Chicago’s airports this summer is a direct result of Mayor Emanuel’s collaborative efforts with Administrator Neffenger, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson and other federal partners to secure additional screening officers and canine teams assigned to O’Hare and Midway. Beyond additional resources, weekly meetings between every agency involved were used to refine staffing schedules and identify necessary facility changes. Close sharing of flight schedules, staffing plans, and other data led to continued refinement over the last several months – with an emphasis on the safety and security of passengers – resulting in significantly improved performance.
Exhibitors
Sq. Ft.
1,226
1,178,084
1,358
1,215,980
2014 2016
Exhibitors
Sq. Ft.
153
41,600
356
90,550
2014 2016
SQUARE FEET
1,200,000 1,250,000 1,300,000 1,350,000 1,400,000 1,450,000
2002
2014
2016
1998
2000
1,277,563
1,282,914
1,365,846
1,372,751
1,415,848
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2016 2014 2012 2000 2002
2,325
2,035
1,909 1,907 1,853
AMT’s Emerging Technology Center
North Building, Booth N-70
OLLI – AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE
105,783 2016 – Sept 12
114,147 2014 Total
Exhibitors Sq. Footage
108,735
A NEW EVENT FROM AMT
September 13, 2016
2016 General Managers’ Meeting
Open Forum
Open discussion on common issues pressing on the manufacturing
technology industry, markets and technological advances.
September 13, 2016
2016 General Managers’ Meeting
Reception & Luncheon
Room W181c
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