GENERATIONAL SHIFTS IN VOTING
Ipsos MORI has analysed over half a million interviews to identify generational shifts in voting and engagement with politics between 1996-2014.
This tracks four cohorts: the Pre-War generation, Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y.
The analysis shows the increasing challenge facing the two main parties in engaging Gen Y…
Conservatives are gaining among all EXCEPT Generation Y – theyhave lost a fifth of their young vote, after a few years of gainsHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
PRE WAR
(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)
BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y
0
10
5
20
25
15
30
35
40
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% Conservative
3
…but Labour have lost even more Gen Y voters since 2013(down from 34% to 26%)…HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
PRE WAR
(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)
BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% Labour
4
And Lib Dems have made no gains on a low baseHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
PRE WAR
(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)
BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y
0
2
4
8
10
12
14
15
18
20
% Liberal Democrat
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
5
Where are Gen Y going?…6% now say will vote UKIP…HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
PRE WAR
(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)
BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y
0
5
10
15
% UKIP
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
6
…7% say will vote Green…HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
PRE WAR
(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)
BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y
0
2
4
6
8
10
% Green
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
7
…undecided increased 4 percentage points to 22%...HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
PRE WAR
(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)
BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
% Undecided
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
8
…and slight increase in would not vote – which is unusual in run-up to an election: other generations saying more likely to voteHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
PRE WAR
(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)
BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y
0
5
10
15
20
25
% Would not vote
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
9
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
And certainty of vote staying relatively soft among Gen Y: 70% of oldest generation say certain to vote, only 39% of Gen Y
Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
PRE WAR
(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)
BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y TOTAL
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% Absolutely certain to vote
10
Not about a difference in trust: all generations distrustpoliticians – baby boomers actually most disillusioned…...WOULD YOU TELL ME IF YOU GENERALLY TRUST POLITICIANS TO TELL THE TRUTH, OR NOT?
Base: c18,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates
PRE WAR
(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)
BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y
0
10
50
40
30
20
60
70
80
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% Tell the truth
11
For more information contact: [email protected] @BobbyIpsosMORI
And see Ipsos MORI’s full generational analysis here: www.ipsos-mori-generations.com
GENERATIONAL SHIFTS IN VOTING
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