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MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
M
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD Await Directional Trade Setup into 1.4060 or 1.4580.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY LONG 3 77.20 80.20/81.50/83.30 (Entered 25/08/2011) 75.90USD/CHF Await signal. Possibly looking to buy lower.USD/CAD Await Buy Trade Setup above 0.9810.AUD/USD Sell stop 3 1.0310 0.9930/0.9705/0.9540 1.0540GBP/JPY Possibly looking to sell.EUR/JPY Sell limit 3 113.70 112.70/110.00/108.00 114.70EUR/GBP Await fresh signal.EUR/CHF Await fresh signal.GOLD Await Sell Trade Setup.SILVER SHORT 3 40.3310 37.0005/34.9750/33.4750 (Entered 25/08/2011) 42.8180
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT25 August, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit w ill be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in mor e profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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EURUSD remains bearish under resistance at 1.4420/1.4580.
EUR/USD remains bearish, despite the recent sharp reactionary bouncewhich eventually stalled around resistance at 1.4420 (pivot zone). This
confirms yet another bearish signal, weighed down by additional failed
breakouts (see red arrows) from this major Bermuda triangle pattern,
which has proved costly to most investors and traders.
We prefer to open a trade setup once this pattern triggers a meaningfuldirectional breakout into either 1.4160 or 1.4580 (on a closing basis).
According to our cycle analysis, there is a heightened probability for
increased volatility next week.
Our bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (from May 04th)holds. A resumption lower will target 1.3971 (200-DMA), where a large
amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for repeat
support or a big squeeze lower toward our initial objectives at 1.3770 and
1.3410. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead to a reassessment of this view.
Inversely, the US dollar index is maintaining consolidation above keysupport at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of
defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multi-
week/month horizon. COT liquidity readings are currently neutral and must
return back to our upside trigger level of 15000 net long contracts.
SPECIAL REPORT :EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.Please select link: REPORT VIDEO
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Directional Trade Setup into 1.4160 or 1.4580.
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
REVERSALPATTERN
AT 200 DMA(1.3971)
PIVOT ZONE
(1.4420-50)
TREND2 YEARS(1.3900)
REVERSALPATTERNS
FAILEDBREAKOUTS
EURUSD's BERMUDA TRIANGLE
+
-
STILLUNWINDING!
US$ INDEX(Weekly)(4 YEARS)
TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
KEYSUPPORT
(73.50-73.00)
13
US DOLLAR INDEX(Daily 2 years)
9
200-DMA(76.49)
TDEXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNALS
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf8/4/2019 2011 08 25 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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Break under 1.6421 opens up return to 1.6256.
GBP/USD has broken lower after consolidating in the prior sessions. Wenow see scope for a return to the 1.6256 higher low and then potentially
lower.
Short-term structure also suggests scope for a lower high ahead of 1.6436. To eliminate the potential for a further swing higher in the medium-term,
we require a push back under 1.6111. With this in mind we see scope for a
higher low versus 1.6111.
Failure to remain above 1.6104 (200-day MA) will warn of a fresh relapsetowards 1.5781, in the longer-term.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Potential BUY signal after NEW Record Low.
USD/JPY has developed a potential DeMark exhaustion buy signal, afterlast week's new post WWII record low which was carved out at 75.95. The
reversal signal is also taking place following the second post intervention
retracement (PIR II) in 2011, which is holding around multi-day support
near 76.30-25.
We remain bullish in the medium/long-term, watching for a sustained moveabove our initial upside trigger level at 77.00-77.20. This would initiate our
buy trade setup, offering a resumption of the preferred new structural bull-
cycle into the all-important psychological level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post
BOJ intervention II high).
Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-termmonthly DeMark exhaustion signal, with TD Risk lines still holding at
79.83 and 76.79. Remember, only a sustained weekly close below here and
76.25 will lead to a reassessment of our view.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Long 3 at 77.20, Obj: 80.20/81.50/83.30, Stop:75.90
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
WAVE 5
83.30
USD/JPY(Daily 1 YEAR)
EARTHQUAKE
SHOCK!
POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT(PIR I)
POSTG7
MOVEHIGH
82.00
PIR II
80.24
POSTBOJ
MOVEHIGH
TDEXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL AFTER
NEW POST WWII LOW(75.95)
MONTHLY TDEXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERNBREAKOUT
TARGET(88-85)
13
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Breakout from hourly consolidation sought.
USD/CHF when viewed from a weekly/daily perspective has theappearance of a possible false break lower. With this in mind, we continue
to favour the formation of a higher low versus 0.7071 for a further recovery
leg higher.
However, we are inclined to wait for a pullback before committing to longpositioning, expecting a breakout from the recent tight hourly
consolidation between 0.7770 and 0.8017, with a bias to the downside.
The price action that we have noted above, in both the weekly and dailytimeframes, is typically associated with reversals. Thus, we see scope for
the current region to act as a possible accumulation zone for long
positioning.
However, the potential for adverse events in the Eurozone remains everpresent, implying that the safe haven status of the Franc may be called
upon yet again. We thus continue to monitor periphery government bond
yields and view trade positioning as being key to any long strategy that
may be employed.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await signal. Possibly looking to buy lower.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHFUSD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Unwinding beneath 1.0000.
USD/CADs accelerated recovery is finally unwinding, having reached thatall-important 1.0000 level.
However, expect to see further unwinding into near-term support at0.9751 and 0.9670, before a resumption higher. We are watching for a
renewed buy trade setup, favouring a major upsurge into 1.0210 plus.
Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is still also unwinding from overbought condition,having recently accelerated above its 200-day MA. Key resistance at
1.4379 (June swing high) is likely to hold.
CHF/CAD is consolidating after its sharp decline from extremelyoverbought conditions, having triggered a bearish reversal pattern. Key
support can be found at 1.2260 (17 th Aug swing low), then 1.1880 and
1.1240.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await Buy Trade Setup Above 0.9810.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD(Weekly )
BULLISHREVERSAL
PATTERNEXTENDS
HIGHER
TDEXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL
USD/CAD(Daily)
MAJOR LOW(0.9446)
200-DMA(0.9805)
REVERSALPATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA(1.0932)
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50%(1.3466)
200-DMA(1.3676)
61.8%
(1.3379)
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Sharp decline unwinds from 1.0000 (parity).
AUD/USDs sharp decline is unwinding after reaching key level at 1.0000(parity). We are watching for new sell trade setup into this bounce.
The current oversold bounce is likely to hold for a few sessions and wewould look to sell into this for a resumption back into 1.0000 and 0.9706.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds
beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320.
The Aussie dollar is unwinding against the Japanese yen, following itssharp pattern breakout which extended beneath key support at 80.42
(61.8% Fib). The move adds to current risk aversion in the global financial
community.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3 at 1.0310, Objs: 0.9930/0.9705/0.9540, Stop: 1.0540
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)
TD RISK(1.0935)
TD RISK(1.1102)
TDEXHAUSTIONSELLSIGNALS
200-DMA(1.0305)
200-DMACAPSBEARMKT
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100
13
38.2%(84.09)
61.8%
(80.42)
50%(82.25)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNAL
BREAKOUTADDS TO
RISKAVERSION
200-DMA(84.04)
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Further weakness anticipated.
GBP/JPY has potentially registered a lower high at 127.34, with scope nowfor a return to 123.31 ahead of a possible recovery.
We remain mildly biased to the downside noting that the weeklytimeframe continues to contain price within a falling channel. We expect
strong support to manifest between 118.85 and 122.36, should the pair
weaken to those levels.
Longer-term we remain biased to a return to the region near 190.00,although any attempt at long positioning needs to be driven by evidence
in the short-term that is suggestive of extended gains in the hourlydaily
timeframe at the very least. A break back under 118.85 is required to
change this longer-term bias.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Possibly looking to sell. Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Breaks over the recent 111.10 peak.
EUR/JPY has broken out of its near-term consolidation pattern to theupside.
Given the daily/weekly bear channel that has been noted in prior analysiswe remain bearish, but look to sell at a higher price location, potentially
closer to the bear channnel resistance.
Bigger picture, we view the push under 116.00 that occurred earlier in theyear as being significantly bearish, with an expectation of a return to
108.03 initially and then 105.44 further out.
We would require a push over 114.18 to negate the possibility of a returnto weakness.
With the above in mind we look to sell higher.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 113.70, Objs: 112.70/110.00/108.00, Stop: 114.70.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY
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A return to 0.8886 is now favoured.
EUR/GBP has found support close to the key low at 0.8643 registering ahigher low (0.8654).
We continue to view 0.8643 as a key level, under which is likely to trigger areturn to weakness, with scope then for 0.8068 over time.
While above this level a fresh recovery leg higher is feasible, potentiallyback towards 0.8886, where a lower high would be favoured to form.
We also note that a push under 0.8643 will begin to break down thepositive structure seen since 0.8285, warning of a longer-term return to
weakness.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Look to sell closer towards 0.8900.
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Rangebound trade continues.
EUR/CHF has left a possible false break lower out of a falling channel. Weawait a push over 1.1892 to confirm this formation.
The recovery in EUR/CHF has been driven by a fall in Spanish and Italian 10year yields. Provided the 6% level is not breached again to the upside, we
see scope for a further recovery leg higher.
With this in mind, we note that hourly structure has been consolidatingover the last eight trading days. We continue to seek a break out of the
1.11165-1.1555 range ahead of the formulation of strategy.
We will keep our options open, also looking for signs of exhaustion,as wemay be tempted to trade with the larger trend and sell into what we
initially expect to be a corrective swing lower.
Stronger signals from short-term structure are awaited ahead of tradepositioning.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Gold drops over $200 in 3 days!
Gold has dropped over $200 in only 3 days, having recently triggered aconfluence of bearish signals (including DeMark exhaustion sell signal),
amidst extremely overbought conditions.
The sharp decline in gold can also be seen against key currencies(including FX majors; EUR, GBP, CHF and commodity-driven AUD & ZAR).
In terms of the big picture, we are closely monitoring Golds reaction backinto the 12-year trend-channel which is currently holding around 1610. The
recent parabolic move is also still pressured by a unique long-term
DeMark exhaustion signal, which coincides with an important cycle
peakon Gold.
We also remind our readers, the bearish risk for Gold was helped by theCMEs recent hike in margins, which often occurs during major highs (akin
to Silvers crash in April). Watch support at 1640.40. A break warns of an
extended reversal lower through the previous psychological level at
1600.00.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Sell Trade Setup.
GOLD
Gold daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)
RISKZONE
I
II
III
GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)
GOLD UNWINDS ACROSS KEY FX RATES
GOLD in USD
GOLD in EUR
GOLD in CHF
GOLD in AUD
GOLD in ZAR
BREAKOUT!
GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)
10 CONSECUTIVEHIGHER CLOSES
KEY LEVEL
(1934-35)
BEARISHREVERSALTRIGGERS
200$ DECLINEIN 3 DAYS!
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Sharp decline extends lower.
Silver's decline extends lower, beneath our target zone at 43.8477-80 andfollowing a DeMark exhaustion sell signal, which also appeared on Gold
ahead of its reversal.
Near-term support can be found at 38.2100 (20th July low). A break herewould trigger downside risk into 34.8096 (200-dMA).
Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and wouldstill mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.
We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 40.3310, Obj:37.0005/34.9750/33.4750, Stop: 42.8180
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
OVER 30YEAR BASEBULL
MARKETFROM
1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2%(32.3135)
50%(26.9150)
61.8%(21.5165)
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS
UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver Ratio
37%13 YEAR LEVEL
Silver(Daily)
13
200 DMA(34.1853)
TARGET II
TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNAL
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Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,
including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have
or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and
are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no
representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and
opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In
particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other
advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made
solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a
qualified expert before making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to bereliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,
whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and
complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
DISC
LAIMER
LEGALTERMS
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14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
CONTACT
Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]
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