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MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY L-TERMMULTI-WEEK STRATEGY/POSITION ENTRYLEVEL OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD Sell Stop 3 1.4290 1.4060/1.3840/1.3660 1.4450
GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.6190 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550 1.6120
USD/JPY Awaiting Trade Setup above 80.00.
USD/CHF Sell limit 3 0.8120 0.8035/0.7860/0.7700 0.8205USD/CAD Await Trade Setup (neutral).
AUD/USD Sell Stop 3 1.0526 1.0390/1.0200/0.9700 1.0730
GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 114.70
EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005
EUR/CHF Sell limit 3 1.1650 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200 1.1720
GOLD Exited at 1615
SILVER SHORT 3 39.2800 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000 41.5500
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Extended rebound stalls into key resistance 1.4400-1.4419.
EUR/USDs extended rebound (from its bullish reversal pattern near the200-day MA), has stalled into key resistance zone between 1.4400-1.4419
(76.4/78.6% Fib level).
Our outlook remains neutral/bearish, while price holds beneath key
resistance at 1.4578. Failure into these levels will keep bearish risks on for a
resumption of the downside pattern breakout, offering an acceleratedimpulsive (wave 3) into 1.3750/1.3659 (2 yr uptrend/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011
rise), thereafter squeezing further conservative trend-followers into our
initial objective at 1.3370.
Only a sustained close above 1.4578 will lead to a reassessment of our
long standing bearish view, opening a potential extended recovery intoprevious key resistance at 1.4711/30.
Inversely, the US dollar index is now holding steady around key support at
73.50. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of defence), where a
potential oversold bounce could develop.
SPECIAL REPORT : EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. Please select link: REPORT VIDEO
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 1.4290, Obj: 1.4060/1.3840/1.3660, Stop: 1.4450
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
32.8%(1.4148)
EUR/USD (Daily 1.5 years)
UPTREND(1.3760)
61.8%(1.3659)
50%(1.3903)
PSYCHOLOGICAL(1.5000)
WAVEOBJECTIVE
(1.3370)
(1.4578/50) KEY POINT
REVERSALPATTERN
AT 200 DMA(1.3919)
KEY POINT
(1.4711/30)
?TRIGGER LEVEL
13
(1.4150) RESUMES WAVE 3 DECLINE
TD EXHAUSTION
9SELL SIGNALS
+
-
STILLUNWINDING!
US$ INDEX
(Weekly)(4 YEARS)
TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNAL 13
+27% +19%
TRIGGER
(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
FALLINGWEDGE
PATTERN
KEY13 SUPPORT
(73.50)
US DOLLAR INDEX
(Daily 2 years)
TDBUY SIGNALS
EXHAUSTION9
200-DMA(76.91)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf8/6/2019 2011 07 25 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+
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Higher low sought for a continuation of strength.
GBP/USD continues to be supported by the 50 week moving average afterbreaking out of a weekly rising channel earlier in the year.
Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested as
support in recent trade. We have also seen a failure in the daily timeframe to stay beneath the old
support of a possible triangular reversal pattern, weakening the case for
the bears. We look to see how the region near 1.6200 fares, in the event of a
corrective phase developing, and now favour the formation of a higher low
in this region ahead of fresh swing higher. Bigger picture, a larger trading range may be developing.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.6190, Objs: 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550, Stop: 1.6120.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Holding at extreme support 78.24.
USD/JPY has weakened further, but is still holding around the extremesupport that we have been watching closely at 78.44/24 (78.6/78.6% Fib
retracement-March upswing).
We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, but are switching to a more
cautious footing, watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially
new structural bull-cycle. However, a close beneath 76.25 would changeour view.
To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close above
strategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post
Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).
The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto
88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
TDST (81.15)
82.00
83.30
WAVE 5
MAJOR TRIANGLE(WAVE IV) SIGNALSFINAL MOVE DOWN
1
NEW POST WWIIRECORD LOW !!!
(76.25)
84.50
USD/JPY (Daily
TDST (83.90)
1 YEAR)
EARTHQUAKESHOCK!
CONFLUENCEZONE
WAVE 2
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PI R)
POSTG7
MOVEHIGH
BULLISHREVERSAL AT
(78.44/24)
EXTREME
RETRACEMENT
MONTHLY TDBUY SIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERN
ZONE (88.00)
EXHAUSTION
BREAKOUTTARGET
13
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Under wedge support required to complete pattern.
Sell recommendation revised. USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge.
This follows the failure to gain momentum in recent trade following a failed
upside and downside break. A lower high is now potentially in place at 0.8278, with scope for a test of
wedge support and then a further break lower.
We also note that a push under the long-term wedge support is requiredto complete this ultimately bullish long term pattern.
A push over 0.8398 will end our short-term bearish bias. We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8120, Objs: 0.8035/0.7860/0.7700, Stop: 0.8205
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHFUSD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Sharp unwinding from multi-year low at 0.9423.
USD/CAD is unwinding sharply from its fresh multi-year low at 0.9423.Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rates expanding
pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915 (38.2% Fib-Sept
2010 decline & 200 DMA).
Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by a
failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.
Indeed, the bulls must now recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swing
high/38.2% Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March
high) and 1.0000 (parity level).
Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is continuing to accelerate lower having recently
breached its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).
In contrast, CHF/CAD is now developing volatile price swings within a
sideways trading range, having failied to retest its 2011 highs at 1.1887.
Moreover, the pair has also triggered two DeMark exhaustion signals
suggesting risk of further weakeness into support at 1.1193 (38.2% Fib).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).
USD/CAD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD daily and chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EXPANDINGPATTERN
INITIAL FAILUREAT RESISTANCE
USD/CAD (Daily)
MAJOR LOW(0.9446)
USD/CAD(Weekly )
0.9059
TDBUYSIGNAL 13EXHAUSTION
FAILED
FALLINGWEDGE
CHANNEL
BREAKOUT
FROM
61.8%(1.3379)
MAJOR RESISTANCE
EUR/CAD(Daily)
200-DMA
(1.3715)
38.2%(1474.69)
50%(1474.69)
CHF
61.8%(1474.69)
/CAD (Daily)
TDSIGNALS
EXHAUSTIONSELL
1313
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Risk level at 1.0935.
AUD/USDs extended bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), hascapped into our DeMarks TD Risk level at 1.0935.
Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark indicator still weighs exhaustion
sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime, our
downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), thereafter unlocking
extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.
The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds
beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.
The Aussie dollar is weakening once again vs. the Japanese yen, afterreturning to its multi-month pattern floor. Only a confirmed downside
breakout would signal a switch to risk aversion in the financial community.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 1.0526, Obj: 1.0390, 1.0200, 0.9700, Stop: 1.0730
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
0.9706
KEY SUPPORT V-SHAPE
UPSIDE REVERSAL
0.9537
0.9804
1.0256
AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)
1.0200
13 TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS
13?
200-DMA(1.0234)
TD RISK1.0935
200-DMACAPSBEARMKT
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2500 / 1.2463
38.2%(84.09)
POTENTIALBREAKOUT
ADDS TO61.8%(80.42)
EXHAUSTIONSELL
RISKAVERSION
50%
(82.25)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
13 TDSIGNAL
200-DMA(83.75)
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Further weakness anticipated near-term.
GBP/JPY has thus far met resistance close to the prior swing low at 128.17.Failure to remain below this level on a daily closing basis will increase the
probability of a return to the resistance of the falling channel. In the meantime, we remain biased to a return towards the support of the
weekly channel and then potentially on towards 122.36. Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, we
expect a return to this region and then a clear break under this support,ahead of a possible recovery.
We now await a shorter-term setup, to assist us in the formulation of an
explicit trade recommendation.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal, with a bias to shorts.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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A break under hourly trend-line support to weaken further.
EUR/JPY appears to be breaking down again after completing a recoveryphase following the peak at 123.33 and then subsequently failing to hold
over 116.00. We combine this with the recent break under the platform near 113.42/50,
which also constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average. The exhaustion pattern that we witnessed last Friday has led to a period of
weakness, which now challenges trend line support off 109.63, with abreak under this structure weakening the outlook further.
If a push under 109.58 can be realised a substantial extension lower would
then be favoured to follow, potentially beyond 105.44. We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 week
moving average.
Failure to remain under 113.50 on a daily closing basis will warn of an endto weakness and a return to strength.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 114.70.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/JPY
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Remains largely rangebound for now.
EUR/GBP appears to have completed the rising phase seen since 0.8285,with the move lower from 0.9084 meeting 0.8705 thus far.
A return to the 200 day moving average is now favoured. This currently
lies near 0.8667. We view the current bounce as being corrective in nature within the
shorter-term timeframe and seek a lower high close to 0.8900, ahead of a
resumption of weakness. With current trade remaining largely range bound we seek a final swing
higher in the shorter-term timeframe ahead of fresh weakness. A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-term
bullish structure.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005. EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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A return to 1.1374 is now favoured.
Sell recommendation revised. EUR/CHF has potentially registered a lower high at 1.1892 last week.
Todays break under 1.1610 now warns of a resumption of weakness with a
return to 1.1374 now favoured. The longer-term falling trend remains intact and while under 1.2080 we
would favour a continuation of the larger trend.
We note, in the absence of further stresses from the Eurozone periphery,that a larger recovery would then become likely due to the probable
extreme short positioning in this market.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell limit 3 at 1.1650, Objs: 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200, Stop: 1.1720.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Resumption of uptrend needs to close above 1620.
Golds resumption of the uptrend needs to close above 1620 in order toconfirm sustainable extensions higher.
We had prefered hedge for downside risks following the recent
unprecedented explosive upside move, which triggered a confluence of
our exhaustion signals.
However, as previously stated, it was critical the market confirmed a
reversal beneath a filtered price/time trigger point. This downside trigger
level still holds at 1588/82.
In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity within the
apex of the 12-year exhaustion pattern (illustrated on the weekly log chart),which has also developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.
Golds COT liquidity indicator (net long positions) remains squeezed within
a tight range (as Gold continued to make push to record highs on lower
volume). At this stage, the risk remains for a downside breakout which
would unlock over 1.5 years of sizeable gold long positions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Exited at 1615.
GOLD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Gold daily, weekly chart and COT liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Bullish revival MUST close above 40.0000.
Silvers bulish revival MUST sustain a daily close above 40.0000 in order toextend another potential recovery leg higher.
Such a positive scenario would help extend the bullish recovery further into
our next target zone between 43.1136-43.8477.
Meanwhile, neat-term support can be found at 39.1425. A break herewould trigger downside risk into 33.8416 (32.8% Fib), near the long-term
200-day MA at 33.3182.
Remember that key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull
market) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.
We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, which
is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 39.2800, Obj: 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000, Stop: 41.5500
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly and Gold/Silver Ratio chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
OVER BASE
38.2%(32.3135)
50%(26.9150)
30 YEAR
61.8%(21.5165)
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS
UNWINDING 37% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver Ratio
37%13 YEAR LEVEL
TARGET 2(43.1136/43.8477)
Silver (Daily) 13
200 MA(32.9235)
38.2%(34.0015)
50%(29.1244)
50%(41.0513)
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Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have
or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and
are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no
representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and
opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In
particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other
advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made
solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a
qualified expert before making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be
reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,
whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and
complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
D I S
C L A I M E R
LEGALTERMS
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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market [email protected] [email protected]
Technical StrategistBjioy Kar
Tel. +41 32 722 81 00
14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 Neuchtel
www.migbank.com
MIG BANK [email protected]
[email protected] StrategistRon William
CONTACT
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