2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The melanoma epidemic
Örjan Hallberg
Hallberg Independent ResearchPolkavägen 14B
142 65 TrångsundSweden
http://hir.nu
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The purpose
To present facts and models that may shed light on the etiology of melanoma.
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Problem solving
What is the problem?When did it start?Where? (world, country, body)
How large is the problem?Can it be modeled?Can we do something about it?
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The number of deaths due to melanoma and lung cancer started to increase 1955
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Me
lan
om
a d
ea
ths
pe
r y
ea
r
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Lu
ng
de
ath
s p
er
ye
ar
Melanoma Mel pre-55 Lung
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The accumulated melanoma risk over time is the same in the four countries analysed.
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
0 10 20 30 40
Time (years)
Ac
c.
inc
ide
nc
e (
%)
USA Norway Sweden Denmark
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Deaths, new cases, FM roll-out and Charter travels over time in Sweden
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Nu
mb
ers
re
late
d t
o r
ea
din
gs
in 1
98
8
Deaths Inc Acc FM Charter
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Counties with yet no FM radio continued with a stable and low melanoma mortality
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Year rel FM start
Mo
rta
lity
[1
/10
0 0
00
]
Pre FM Post FM
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Location of nevi and melanoma on the body
0 50 100 150
Feet
Lower legs
Thighs
Abdomen+buttocks
Chest+back
Arms
Head
Dots/unit area
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Melanoma incidence for women in Norway. Head and rest of body.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Inci
den
ce A
SI
(1/1
00,0
00) Women RoB Women Head
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Some cancers correlate with melanoma in Swedish counties while leukemia does not
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5
Melanoma incidence 1/10 000
Inci
den
ce 1
/10
000
Prostate Bladder Lung Breast Leukaemia Colon
Melanoma, diabetes and FM
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Melanoma incidence appears to follow the FM-transmitter densities in the country
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Reported melanoma rates and FM transmitter power density in Norway
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Areas covered by 3 or more main FM transmitters are colored read to compare with the melanoma map
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The melanoma incidence in the 289 communes in Sweden relates to the number of covering main FM-transmitters
R2 = 0.417p<0,000001
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 2 4 6
Transmitter density
Me
l in
c m
(1
/10
0 0
00
)
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Melanoma during the first and the second half of the 20th century
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age (years)
Inci
den
ce (
1/10
0,00
0)
Born 1960 Born 1955 Born 1950
Born 1945 Born 1940 Denmark 1943-1947
Norw ay 1953-1955 Sw eden 1958 USA 1945
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Model 1 - repair of annual damages
The natural repair rate is fast enough to guarantee a low melanoma rate and the survival of the population
But a reduced repair rate will allow damages to get old enough to cause an increasing melanoma risk.
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The reduced repair rate (R3) model was tested for 3 countries
Natural repair rate up to 1960, reduced rate thereafter
Data from Sweden, Norway and the USA were analyzed
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Best fit to reported age-standardized rates using the R3 model for Sweden
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Reported and calculated age-specific melanoma incidence in Sweden
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Calendar year
Inci
den
ce (
1/10
0,00
0)
27 37 47 57 67 77 82 87
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The incidence for those born 1900-1920 in Sweden. Reported and calculated data
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Inc
ide
nc
e (
1/1
00
00
0)
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Inci
den
ce (
1/10
0 00
0)
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Old people show increasing incidence, young people don’t!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Inci
den
ce (
1/10
0,00
0)
27 37 77 82 87
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
This means ...
Young age groups have stabilized since long time back
Older age groups still have about 10-20 years to go before they stabilize
The reduced repair rate model fits reported data very well
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Can increased sun-tanning habits explain the data?
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The model is used again:
Natural repair rate (as reported before 1958)
Assume increasing sun-tanning habits from 1930 to 1980, stable thereafter.
Increase sun-tanning to best fit age-standardized rates.
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Age-standardized rates using the sun damage model for Sweden. Best fit at 10 times increase of sun-damages.
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Calculated age-specific melanoma incidence does not fit reported data.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Calendar year
Inci
den
ce (
1/10
0,00
0)
27 37 47 57 67 77 82 87
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Melanoma and breast cancer are more common on the left side of the body - Why?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
New
cas
es p
er y
ear
Women Right Women Left
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Resonance effects from FM
The body is in resonance (half wave resonance) at frequencies around 100 MHz. Half wave resonance gives a current maximum in the middle of the structure.
An incident wave and the reflected wave will cancel close to the metal springs in the mattress, max field ¼ wavelength above.
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
So...
If you sleep to the right - you may get more cancer to the left…
And most people sleep for longer times on the right side to avoid the heart beats
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
What about other cancers?
Sun-shine hypothesis: Sunshine -> high melanoma, D-vitamins,
and thus low rates of other cancersR3 hypothesis:
A reduced repair rate -> high melanoma and high rates of other cancers as well
Let’s take a look at breast cancer e.g.
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Countries with high melanoma rates also have high breast cancer rates
R2 = 0,0085
R2 = 0,5146
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0,1 1 10 100
Melanoma incidence (1/100,000)
Bre
ast
can
cer
inc
(1/1
00,0
00) 100 MHz
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
And cancer rates in general are related to high melanoma rates
R2 = 0,3008
R2 = 0,0258
0
50
100
150
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350
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450
0,1 1 10 100
Melanoma incidence (1/100,000)
Can
cer
inci
den
ce (
1/10
0,00
0)
100 MHz
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Current explanations on cell level
An increased production of NO-radicals due to continuous EMF exposure will reduce the efficiency of the immune and cell repair system (U Warnke, 2005)
Depletion of cellular antioxidants is a prominent feature during melanoma pathogenesis (F Meyskens, 2004)
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Conclusions
The etiology of melanoma can better be explained by the reduced repair rate model than by the increased sun-tanning model.
Body-resonant radiation (FM) is associated with melanoma
Other cancers to analyze are breast cancer and lung cancer
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Thanks for your attention
http://hir.nu
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The group mean incidence is strongly related to the transmitter density
R2 = 0.9755p<0.000001
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 1 2 3 4 5
Transmitters
Inc
ide
nc
e (
1/1
00
,00
0)
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
A reduced repair rate that fits data
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 20 40 60 80
Years after cell damage
Rem
ain
ing
fra
ctio
n o
f d
amag
ed c
ells
ali
ve
Natural state Disturbed state
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Only two parameters were adjusted to fit reported data; dispersions of melanoma risk and the repair rate
Sweden Norway USAMelanoma 0.46 / 100 0.48 / 100 0.50 / 100Disturbed repair 0.36 / 5 0.37 / 5 0.52 / 5Natural repair 0.20 / 5 0.20 / 5 0.20 / 5Onset year 1960 1960 1965
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Reported and calculated age-specific melanoma incidence in Norway
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Calendar year
Inci
den
ce (
1/10
0,00
0)
27 37 47 57 67 77 82 87
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
Reported and modeled age-specific melanoma incidence in the USA
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Calendar year
Inci
den
ce (
1/10
0,00
0)
27 37 47 57 67 77 82 87
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
… and for the USA
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
What about those who lived in both halves of the 20th century?
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Inc
ide
ns
(1
/10
0 0
00
)
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920
2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent
Research
The melanoma incidence in Finland in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000.
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