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Assessments – science-based decision support
Mikko Pohjola, THL
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Contents
• What is assessment?
• Example: what is the scope of TAPAS?
• From practical need to assessment problem
• Finding solutions to the problem
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Assessment
• Risk assessment, health impact assessment, environmental impact assessment, societal impact assessment, integrated assessment, environmental modeling, cost-effectiveness analysis, life-cycle analysis…
• Statements (or the process of making statements) of judged cost, value, worth, significance of… (Merriam-Webster online dictionary)
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Assessment
• Science-based decision support– Driven by a practical need– Constrained by the scientific quest for truth
• Also facilitated with the means of science
• Decisions about…?– preferred actions intended to lead to desired
consequences• Decisions by…?
– Societal decision makers (policy)– Industry and commerce (e.g. investments)– Individuals (e.g. as residents, passengers)
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Assessment
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Assessment
• It is a business of creating understanding about reality in relation to a specific need
– Collection, synthesis, interpretation and organization of information
– Communication of information !!!– Use of information !!!
• Assessment can refer to– The process of making an assessment– The product produced by that process
• The information product used to support decision making
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Assessment
Assessors Decision makers Stakeholders
Assessmentprocess
Conse-quence
Assess-ment
product
Decisionmaking
De-cision
Action
Otherfactors
Otherfactors
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Assessment
• Helping a decision maker understand the problem (s)he has at hand…
• …and the relevant factors related to it…
• …as well as the basis for the understanding…
• …so that (s)he can come up with a good decision…
• …upon taking action based on that understanding.
Traditional science-policy interface
Policy-making: each policyquestion is consideredseparately based on a differentassessment.
A specific policy-makingprocess
A specific policy-makingprocess
Policy assessments: each assessment is performedseparately
Model for a specific policy assessmentModel for a specific policy assessment
Scientific articles
Model for a specific policy assessment A specific policy-makingprocess
Study (i)result:
exposure
Require filtersfor pollutantX? Yes/No
Exposure topollutant X
Costs of filtersMonetisation
of healthimpacts
Objective:minimise total
costs
Health impactof pollutant XStudy (ii)
result:exposure
Study (iii)result:costs
Interpretation of study (i)
Interpretationof exposure
Interpretation of study (ii)
Interpretation of study (iii)
Study (i)researchers
Policyassessors
Policy aboutfilter
requirements
Stakeholderlobbying
Otherconsiderations
Interpretationof costs
Study (ii)researchers
Policy-maker
Study (iii)researchers
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Open assessment interface
Open assessments for scientific interpretation and policyassessments: the general part
Assessment-specificpart
Assessment-specificpart
Policy-making: with bothgeneral and specificconsiderations.
A policy-makingprocess with bothgeneral and specificconsiderations.
A policy-makingprocess with bothgeneral and specificconsiderations.
Scientificresults
Assessment-specificconditionalisation(temporary)
A policy-makingprocess
Study (i)result:
exposure
Require filtersfor pollutant X?
Yes/No
Exposure topollutant X
Costs of filters
Objective:minimise total
costs
Health impactof pollutant X
Study (ii)result:
exposure
Study (iii)result:costs
Study (i)researchers
Policy assessorsof all
assessmentsPolicy about
filterrequirements
Otherconsiderations
Stakeholderlobbying
Policy-maker
Monetisationof healthimpacts
Anyoneinterested
Case-specificdata
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Example: TAPAS
• Transportation, Air pollution and Physical ActivitieS– An integrated health risk assessment programme of
climate change and urban policies
• Research project with an assessment and modeling approach
• Partners from 7 different institutes from 4 different countries (cities)
– Barcelona, Paris, Basel, Copenhagen
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Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities;an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies
• Keywords:– Transport– Air pollution– Physical activities– Health risks– Climate change– Urban policies
• There must be some good reasons for making such an assessment. Can you identify them?
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Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities;an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies
• What are the issues addressed?
• What are the needs regarding those issues?
• Are the issues controversial?
• Are the issues inter-related?
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Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities;an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies
• Whose needs and concerns?
• Who are interested in or affected by them?
• Can someone be held responsible for the way things are?
• Should something be done?
• Is someone responsible for taking action?
• What actions can be taken?
• Who can take action?
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Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities;an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies
• What benefits are sought for by taking action?
• Do possible actions involve risks?
• Who is affected by possible actions?
• What needs to be known in order to take action?
• What needs to be known in order to know what action to take?
• Whose understanding about the issues, needs and actions is most crucial to achieve the benefits?
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Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities;an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies
• The project plan says:– Urban policies (built environment, interventions)
• Addressing climate change (prevention, adaptation?)• Promoting other health related outcomes
– Active transportation (walking, cycling + public)– Risks: air pollution, UV, crime, accidents – Benefits: physical activity, social interaction, mental
health– Effects summarized as DALYs
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Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities;an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies
• Assessment – active transport policy decisions – Indicators:
• GHG emissions• ambient air quality• mental health / quality of life• attributable chronic/acute disese• net health (DALYs)
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Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities;an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies
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Climate, health: win-win
From need to assessment problem
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From need to assessment problem
• Information gap drives the assessment – There is a need to know, but required
knowledge/information is missing • need to make decision (action/no action, what action)• need to choose among decision options• need to know available decision options• need to know preferability of decision options
• Multiple possible decision makers– e.g. political leaders, industrial managers, individuals
• Multiple possible decisions/actions– e.g. policy, investment, consumption
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From need to assessment problem
• Assessment object in open assessment
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From need to assessment problem
• Purpose of assessment is to satisfy the information gap of intended users of the assessment
• The information gap needs to be indicated or identified, analyzed and understood
• The information gap determines the boundaries for what needs to be assessed
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From need to assessment problem
• Assessment scope (purpose, users and boundaries) describes the assessment problem
– what is needed to know, why, who will use the knowledge?
• Purpose & users - practical requirements for how the assessment should be made
• Boundaries define the part of reality which to assess
• Scenarios are specific conditionings that need to be done in order to address the need adequately
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Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities;an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies
• Can we define:– Purpose of the TAPAS assessment?– Boundaries of the TAPAS assessment?– Users of the TAPAS assessment output?
• Can the assessment problem be formulated into a question or a set of questions?
Where to look for solutions?
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Where to look for solutions?
• What needs to be done in order to address the problem?
• Assessment is about finding solutions to the assessment problem
– also finding out what is not known in order to solve the problem• consider knowledge management vs. ignorance
management – assessments are done according to need, not
according to e.g. coincidental data availability
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Finding solutions to the problem
Assessment Use
Assessmentprocess
Assessmentproduct
Decision making
Knowledgeneed
Productrequirement
Processrequirement
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Where to look for solutions?
• What needs to be known in order to make the right decision?– Decision options– Outcomes affected– Factors that mediate and influence the effect from
decision to outcome
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Where to look for solutions?
• Indicators: issues of specific interest
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Summary
• Assessments serve two masters– Practical need (of policy)– Scientific truth
• Need determines assessment scope– Problem to solve
• Scope determines what needs to be assessed– Suggestion for solving the problem
• Coming up with solutions and putting them to use (assessment definition and result) will be discussed more on Thursday
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