BY : NORIHAN HUSAIN,AYAT B A RAHMAN
MALAYSIAN OIL PALM INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE:
FIRST HALF 2015
MPOC POINTERS17-21 AUGUST 2015
1
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
INTRODUCTION
2MALAYSIAN OIL PALM INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE FIRST HALF 2015
3EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2015
4 CONCLUSION
2
3
INTRODUCTION
The Malaysian oil palm industry encounteredsome challenges in FH2015:
• Crude palm oil production was affected byheavy rainfalls at the beginning of the year
• High carry-over stocks, high imports and lowexport demand pushed palm oil stocks toabove 2 million tonnes
• Weak fundamentals further dampened palm oilprices, which contributed to relatively lowexport earnings.
4
PERFORMANCE OF THE MALAYSIAN OIL PALM INDUSTRY
IndicatorsJan-June
2015Jan- June
2014
Difference
%
PALM OIL:Volume (Tonnes):
Opening StockProductionImportExportClosing Stock
Export Revenue(RM Mil)Palm OilTotal Oil Palm Products
Price (RM/Ton):FFBCPOCPKO
2,015,7899,045,527464,606
7,833,8342,151,774
18,709.827,689.3
471.002,219.003,480.00
1,987,1539,064,352143,931
8,133,9651,656,756
22,292.731,856.9
581.002,605.004,000.50
1.4(0.2)
3-folds(3.7)29.9
(16.1)(13.1)
(18.9)(14.8)(13.0)
5Source : MPOB
6
OIL PALM PLANTED AREA
7
OIL PALM PLANTED AREA BY STATE(HECTARES)
State June 2015 June 2014Growth
%
JohorKedahKelantanMelakaNegeri SembilanPahangPerakPerlisP. PinangSelangorTerengganu
740,33487,090
150,15354,548
177,219724,116393,718
29414,344
138,595174,465
732,05985,489
144,75953,912
170,397721,444391,302
28913,967
137,066168,769
1.11.93.71.24.00.40.61.62.71.13.4
Pen. Malaysia 2,654,876 2,619,453 1.4
SabahSarawak
1,532,6331,384,959
1,497,7471,210,802
2.314.4
Sabah & Sarawak 2,917,592 2,708,549 7.7MALAYSIA 5,572,468 5,328,002 4.6
Source : MPOB
Expansion:• Sarawak :
174,157 ha• Sabah :
34,886 ha• Pen. Malaysia :
35,423 ha
Terengganu : 0.17 Mn HaPerak : 0.39 Mn Ha
Pahang : 0.72 Mn Ha
Selangor : 0.14 Mn Ha
Johor : 0.74 Mn Ha
Sabah : 1.53 Mn Ha
Sarawak : 1.38 Mn Ha
• Total Oil Palm Planted Area : 5.57 Mn Ha
• Sabah : 1.53 Mn Ha (27.5%)
• Sarawak : 1.38 Mn Ha (24.9%)
• Pen. Malaysia : 2.65 Mn Ha (47.6%)Kedah : 0.09 Mn Ha
Kelantan : 0.15 Mn Ha
N. Sembilan : 0.18 Mn Ha
DISTRIBUTION OF OIL PALM PLANTED AREA, JUNE 2015 (HECTARES)
8
Melaka : 0.05 Mn Ha
Perlis : 294 Ha
Penang : 0.01 Mn Ha
Source : MPOB
OIL PALM PLANTED AREA,JUNE 2015 (HECTARES)
9
Source : MPOB
87.3%
90.1%82.2%
86.8%
12.7%9.9% 17.8%
13.2%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
P. Malaysia Sabah Sarawak Malaysia
Mature Immature
• Mature : 4,837,235 Ha
• Immature : 735,233 Ha
10
OIL PALM PLANTED AREA BY CATEGORY
Source : MPOB
Private Estates61.4%
FELDA12.7%
FELCRA3.1%
RISDA1.4%
Other Government
Agencies6.1%
Independent Smallholders
15.3%
June 2015 : 5.57 Mn. ha
11
OIL PALM PLANTED AREA BY CATEGORY (HECTARES)
CategoryJune2015
June2014
Growth%
Private Estates
Federal Land Schemes:FELDAFELCRARISDA
Other Government AgenciesIndependent Smallholders
3,424,203
709,925172,33776,193
337,351852,459
3,277,950
702,880171,78277,360
325,630772,400
4.5
1.00.3-1.5
3.610.4
TOTAL 5,572,468 5,328,002 4.6Source : MPOB
12
PRODUCTIONPERFORMANCE
13
FRESH FRUIT BUNCH (FFB) YIELD,(TONNES/ HECTARE)
RegionJan-June
2015Jan-June
2014Difference
(%)
P. MalaysiaSabahSarawak
8.639.296.94
8.2810.047.07
4.2(7.5)(1.8)
MALAYSIA 8.40 8.50 (1.2)
Source : MPOB
14
MONTHLY FRESH FRUIT BUNCH (FFB) YIELD
Source : MPOB
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tonn
es/H
a
2014 2015
FH 2015 : 8.40 t/ha (-1.2%)FH 2014 : 8.50 t/ha
15
OIL EXTRACTION RATE (OER) (%)
Source : MPOB
RegionJan-June
2015
Jan-June
2014
Difference
( %)
P. MalaysiaSabahSarawak
19.6921.2820.09
20.2321.3420.43
(2.7)(0.3)(1.7)
MALAYSIA 20.20 20.60 (1.9)
16
MONTHLY OIL EXTRACTION RATE (OER)
Source : MPOB
19.60
19.80
20.00
20.20
20.40
20.60
20.80
21.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
OE
R (
%)
2014 2015
FH 2015 : 20.20% (-1.9%)FH 2014 : 20.60%
17
CPO PRODUCTION
Source : MPOB
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Mn
Tonn
es
2014 2015
Low CPO production in 1Q 2015 due to low FFB yield and OER
FH 2015 : 9.05 Mn T (-0.2%)FH 2014 : 9.06 Mn T
18
EXPORT PERFORMANCE
19
EXPORTS OF OIL PALM PRODUCTS
Source : MPOB
ProductJan-June 2015 Jan-June 2014 Difference Difference
Tonnes RM Mil Tonnes RM Mil Tonnes % RM Mil %
Palm Oil 7,833,834 18,709.8 8,133,965 22,292.7 (300,131) (3.7) (3,582.9) (16.1)
Palm Kernel Oil
504,945 1,952.9 500,213 2,057.3 4,732 0.9 (104.4) (5.1)
Palm Kernel Cake
1,124,219 406.5 1,273,681 708.7 (149,462) (11.7) (302.2) (42.6)
Oleochemicals
1,369,343 5,480.2 1,369,572 5,728.0 (229) (0.0) (247.8) (4.3)
Finished Products
203,029 784.3 188,555 761.6 14,474 7.7 22.7 3.0
Biodiesel 63,277 182.9 38,495 117.9 24,782 64.4 65.0 55.1
Others 289,274 172.7 289,993 190.7 (719) (0.2) (18.0) (9.4)
TOTAL 11,387,921 27,689.3 11,794,474 31,856.9 (406,553) (3.4) (4,167.6) (13.1)
20
EXPORTS OF PALM OIL
Source : MPOB
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Mn
Tonn
es
2014 2015
FH 2015 : 7.83 Mn T (-3.7%)FH 2014 : 8.13 Mn T
Low export demand from major importing countries esp in 1Q2015
21
EXPORTS OF PALM OIL TOMAJOR DESTINATION (TONNES)
Source : MPOB
CountriesJan-June Difference
2015 2014 Tonnes %
India 1,547,614 1,156,308 391,306 33.8
China, P.R 1,280,044 1,493,251 (213,207) (14.3)
EU 1,036,160 1,141,072 (104,912) (9.2)
Pakistan 343,732 412,927 (69,195) (16.8)
USA 333,221 414,295 (81,074) (19.6)
Vietnam 323,960 277,248 46,712 16.8
Philippines 301,398 221,666 79,732 36.0
Japan 268,972 248,701 20,271 8.2
Others 2,398,733 2,768,497 (369,764) (13.4)
TOTAL 7,833,834 8,133,965 (300,131) (3.7)
22
EXPORTS OF PALM OIL TOMAJOR DESTINATION
Source : MPOB
India19.8%
China, P.R16.3%
EU13.2%Pakistan
4.4%USA4.3%
Vietnam4.1%
Philippines3.8%
Japan3.4%
Others30.6%
Jan-June 2015 : 7.83 million tonnes
23
IMPORT PERFORMANCE
24
IMPORT PERFORMANCE (TONNES)
Source : MPOB
ProductJan-June
2015Jan-June
2014Difference
%
Palm Oil 464,606 143,931 3-folds
Palm Kernel Oil 153,708 53,896 3- folds
Palm Kernel 3,360 13,740 (75.5)
TOTAL 621,674 211,567 3-folds
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STOCK PERFORMANCE
26
PALM OIL CLOSING STOCK
Source : MPOB
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Mn
Tonn
es
2014 2015
FH 2015 : 2.15 Mn T (+29.9%)FH 2014 : 1.66 Mn T
27
PRICE PERFORMANCE
28
PRICES OF OIL PALM PRODUCTS (RM/TONNE)
Source : MPOB
ProductJan-June
2015Jan-June
2014
Difference
RM/Tonne %
Fresh Fruits Bunch (Mill Gate)Crude Palm Oil (Lcl Dld)Palm Kernel (Ex-mill)Crude Palm Kernel Oil (Lcl Dld)RBD Palm Oil (FOB)RBD Palm Olein (FOB)RBD Palm Stearin (FOB)PFAD (FOB)
471.002219.001650.503480.002300.502298.002227.502095.00
581.002605.002010.504000.502719.002706.502620.002494.00
(110.00)(386.00)(360.00)(520.50)(418.50)(408.50)(392.50)(399.00)
(18.9)(14.8)(17.9)(13.0)(15.4)(15.1)(15.0)(16.0)
CRUDE PALM OIL PRICE JAN 2014 – JUNE 2015
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
3,500
3,600
Jun 2
011
RM/TO
NNE
Crude Palm Oil Price Trends : May - July 2011 (RM/MT)
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
Jan 2
014
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 2
015
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
29
FH 2015 : RM 2,219.00 (-14.8%)FH 2014 : RM 2,605.00
Source : MPOB
2000.00
2200.00
2400.00
2600.00
2800.00
3000.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
RM
Ton
ne
2014 2015
CRUDE PALM OIL PRICE
30
FH 2015 : RM 2,219.00 (-14.8%)FH 2014 : RM 2,605.00
Source : MPOB
31
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2015
CPO PRODUCTION
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Jan Feb Mac Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mn T
2014 2015
32
Source : MPOB
FH2015: 9.05 MnT SH2015*: 10.81MnT 2015* :19.86 MnT* forecast
EXPORT OF PALM OIL
33
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
Jan Feb Mac Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mn T
2014 2015
Source : MPOB
FH2015 : 7.83 MnT SH2015*: 9.97 MnT 2015*: 17.80MnT * forecast
STOCKS OF PALM OIL
34
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Jan Feb Mac Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mn T
2014 2015
Source : MPOB
Avg 2015*: 2.01 MnT. Dec 2015*: 1.97 Mn T * forecast
35
CONCLUSIONFor the FH2015, the Malaysian oil palm industry witnessed lower CPOproduction, exports and prices of palm oil products vis-à-vis FH2014.
SH2015 is expected to show recovery in CPO production and exportperformance.
CPO production in 2015 is expected to increase marginally to 19.86 Mn Tfrom 19.67 Mn T in 2014, and export of palm oil expected to be higher by2.9% to reach 17.80 Mn T from 17.31 Mn T in 2014. Marginal increase in CPOproduction and higher exports in SH2015 will drawdown stocks to below 2.0Mn T. The average price of CPO for 2015 is projected to be lower comparedto 2014.
THANK YOU
36
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