KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
INSTITUTE FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (IIP)
www.kit.edu
System Analysis of biomass-based value chains: Important aspects
International Renewable Energy Asia Conference 2015, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
F. Schultmann, M. Fröhling, S. Radloff, A. Rudi, K. Schuhmacher
2 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Agenda
Background: value chain-orientated evaluation of biomass conversion technology
Aspects of a value chain orientation in the evaluation of biomass conversion technologies
Conclusions
3 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Background
A plethora of material and energetic utilisations for biogeneous raw materials is currently under discussion and in development
Expected advantages Reduction of climate relevant emissions Substitution of fossil raw materials Further positive effects along the value chain
4 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Relevance of assessments in this context ► Research questions
Are the new process chains in terms of sustainability advantageous (in comparison to existing bio-based supply chains based on fossil and renewable raw materials)?
How can sustainability of the process chains be achieved? Which process chains are promising?
► Assessment To support concept and process development As a basis for decisions about funding policies As an objective basis for communication and discussion of the utilisation concepts
► Need for suitable techno-economic and ecological assessment methodologies
5 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Stakeholder framework
Preparation and
conditioning Primary
conversion Secondary conversion
Product upgrading
Biomass conversion technologies have to be assessed as biomass-based value chains
Technical conversion processes
Technical conversion as one step in a biomass-based value chain
Raw material
production Conversion Use End-of-life
6 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Agenda
Background: value chain-orientated biomass conversion technology evaluation
Aspects of a value chain orientation in the evaluation of biomass conversion technologies
Raw material production aspects Logistical aspects Uncertainties
Stakeholder acceptance
Conclusions
7 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Assessment of raw materials for a vegetable oil biorefinery Dragonhead oil, coriander oil, linseed oil, crambe and canola seed oil
Conversion of „new“ locally grown vegetable oils to new products
interm. intermediate Further reactions products
Reac%on 1
Reac%on 2
Reac%on 3
Reac%on 4
Oil mill (p
ressing,
extrac%o
n)
Transesterfica%
on,
Hydra%
on
• Polymers • Lubricants • …
feedstock
Dragon‘s head seeds
Coriander seeds
Crambe seeds
Canola seeds (Erucic)
… …
System boundaries of value chain steps
System boundaries of total regarded value chain
8 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
…
1.30
2.44
1.37
0.69
…
Dragon‘s head seeds
Coriander seeds
Crambe seeds
Canola seeds (Erucic)
Oil price (min.) EUR/kg
963
1010
1100
1280
…
Field produc8on costs EUR/ha
25
25
25
40
…
Yields dt/ha
(Thüringer Landesanstalt für Landwirtschaft and KIT)
2.89
4.05
2.97
2.28
…
Reac8on 1 with Product 1, produc8on costs EUR/kg
Assessment of raw materials for a vegetable oil biorefinery Dragonhead oil, coriander oil, linseed oil, crambe and canola seed oil
9 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
2,20 2,38 2,87 1,71 1,87
0 1 2 3 4
frei Anlage, eigene Schätzung
frei Anlage, LCI Daten aus ecoinvent
15,5 16,0 11,7
6,7 5,8
0 5
10 15 20
frei Anlage, eigene Schätzung frei Anlage, LCI Daten aus ecoinvent
Estimation of life cycle impacts
Conclusions Economic and ecological disadvantages of alternative raw materials are
caused mainly by lower yields Open questions:
can lower yields be compensated through breeding and / or better raw material properties, e.g. other fatty acid patterns
Land use Global warming potential
[kg
CO
2-Eq
./kg
oil]
Assessment of raw materials for a vegetable oil biorefinery Dragonhead oil, coriander oil, linseed oil, crambe and canola seed oil
Free plant (lci data: ecoinvent)
Free plant (own calculations) Free plant (lci data: ecoinvent)
Linseed Crambe Erucic canola 00-canola Dragon head Linseed Crambe Erucic canola 00-canola Dragon head
(Meyer et al., 2011)
[m²a
/kg
oil]
10 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Agenda
Background: value chain-orientated evaluation of biomass conversion technology
Aspects of a value chain orientation in the evaluation of biomass conversion technologies
Raw material production aspects Logistical aspects Uncertainties
Stakeholder acceptance
Conclusions
11 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Logistical aspects
Decoupling of supply chains Spatially Temporal
Location and network strategy Integration in existing production
sites or networks Upstream, e.g. saw mills Downstream, e.g. integrated
chemical production sites
New production sites and networks
Preparation and
conditioningPrimary
conversionSecondaryconversion
Productupgrading
Rawmaterial
productionConversion Use End-of-life
Site
bou
ndar
yWaste
Disposal
River Saale
Laboratory
Site coordination
Security and emergency management
Medical Service
Communication
Site development
Facility management
Production units and service provider on site
Power plants
Road
Terminals
Rail
Stations
Vehicle cleaning service
Logistic service
RailRoad
Pipe racks
Energy production and distribution
National grid
Water supply
Road
Fire brigade
Security
Waste water
ZAB
Waste Disposal
River Saale
Laboratory
Site coordination
Security and emergency management
Medical Service
Communication
Site development
Facility management
Laboratory
Site coordination
Security and emergency management
Medical Service
Communication
Site development
Facility management
Production units and service provider on site
Power plantsPower plants
Road
Terminals
Rail
Stations
Road
Terminals
Rail
Stations
Vehicle cleaning service
Logistic service
RailRoad
Pipe racks
Energy production and distribution
National grid
Water supply
Road
Fire brigade
Security
Road
Fire brigade
Security
Waste water
ZAB
(VDI 6310)
12 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Trade-off between transportation costs and economies of scale
Feedstock provision Biogenic raw materials accrue spread over large areas
Transport Transport over large distances is often uneconomic and
causes climate relevant emissions due to high water contents and low material densities
Increase of transport costs with increasing amounts
Due to economies of scale large plants are envisaged
I: Investment at capacity [monetary units] I0: Investment at capacity 0 [monetary units] n: scaling factor [-]
00
n
I I κκ⎛ ⎞
= ⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠
κκ
κ
I
13 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Solution approach Biomass Value Chain
modelling MILP model Multiple biomass,
technologies and output products
Integrated location-, capacity- and transportation planning B
iom
ass
type
Biomass technology
Regional
National
Global Anaerobic digestion
Combustion Gasification
Forestry
Agricultural cropping
Residues and wastes
Manure
BtL
Etc.
Etc.
Ø Electrical energy
Ø Thermal energy
Ø Biogas
Ø Biofuel
Objective function: Max Profit = Max (Revenue – Cost)
Input data Biomass potentials Potential facility locations Transportation network Techno-economic parameters Product demand and prices Etc.
Output data Conversion technologies Facility locations Capacities to install Transport loads Material and energy
output Etc.
Integrated location, capacity and
technology choice model
Multiple biomass, technology, product approach
Economies of scale
Consideration of economies of scale using a linearization Approximation of the concave
investment function Formulation of a piece-wise
linear investment function based on segments and point of support weightings
Implementation as Special ordered Sets of Type 2 (SOS2)
Inve
stm
ent I
I II III IV
κCapacity
14 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
18
4
36 35 34
31
26 28 27
29 30 33
25
23 22
21 20 19
17 16 14
15 13 12
11 10
9 6
5
3
2
1
32
Model output
Example: Application within the OUI Biomass project (preliminary results)
Scenario Scope: Trinational Upper Rhine Region Straw potential approx.: 930.000 t/a 3 combustion and gasification technologies Final product: Electric and thermal energy
Results 100 plants in 15 districts Capacity: 327 MW (200 MWel, 127 MWth) Utilisation of 857.150 t/a of straw
Effects of economies of scale on the size of conversion plants
22 FBG* plants: 1-2.5 MW (avg. 1.8 MW) 63 combustion plants: 1.5-6 MW (avg. 3.3 MW) 15 BIGCC** plants: 4.3-8 MW (avg. 5 MW)
Source Plant
*Fluidised Bed Gasifier (FBG), **Biomass Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (BIGCC)
15 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Agenda
Background: value chain-orientated evaluation of biomass conversion technology
Aspects of a value chain orientation in the evaluation of biomass conversion technologies
Raw material production aspects Logistical aspects Uncertainties
Stakeholder acceptance
Conclusions
16 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Data of the technical processes
Investment and cost estimations
Raw material and utility prices
Demand and revenues for products
Further parameters
Uncertainties
17 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Example: Utilisation of sugar industry residues in Australia
Design and evaluation of value chains for the utilisation of lignocellulosic residues from the sugar industry
Ca. 3 Mio. t. Bagasse / a (Australia) Ca. 360 Mio. t Bagasse / a (globally)
Solution approach I. Aim and scope definition II. Modelling and balancing of the value chain III. Planning & Assessment
• Supply Chain Design heuristic • Uncertainty analysis
Modified from (ASMC, 2011)
(Meyer et al., 2014)
18 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Nested Monte Carlo Simulation
Simulation steps: Parameters constant over the life-time are drawn SMC times
S1
S2
S3
SMC
…
…
…
…
t1 t2 t3 T
Life-time of the bio-commodity production plant: Parameters subject to variability over the life-time are drawn T times per
simulation step
(Meyer et al., 2014)
19 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
(in Townsville)
Results: distribution function for the minimum selling prices for FT fuel and Ethanol
(Meyer et al., 2014)
Deterministic solution
95% confidence level
20 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Agenda
Background: value chain-orientated biomass conversion technology evaluation
Aspects of a value chain orientation in the evaluation of biomass conversion technologies
Raw material production aspects Logistical aspects Uncertainties
Stakeholder acceptance
Conclusions
21 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Relevance of public acceptance for sustainable biomass utilization
http://www.envitec-biogas.de/fileadmin/Images/PressPictures/Guestrow_300dpi.jpg
Resistance against centralized, industrial projects
“Food for fuel” debate
Concerns regarding mono-cropping
and landscape transformation
http://www.bund.net/index.php?id=17849
http://www.niederelbe.de/ostemarsch/mais.htm
http://gas2.org/2011/10/17/americans-now-use-more-corn-for-fuel-than-food/ simcoereformer.ca
22 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Consideration of factors influencing stakeholder acceptance
Approval/ endorsement
Support/ Commitment
Rejection Resistance
Active Acceptance
active passive
positive
negative
Appraisal
Action
Source: based on Rau et al. (2012)
Definition of acceptance: Dimensions of acceptance
23 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Goals Method Key player analysis Identification of key players
within the bioenergy value chain in the Upper Rhine Region (URR) to identify motives, strategies and fields of actions
Exploratory semi-standardized interviews with ~100 actors in the URR
Decision analysis Identification of acceptance criteria of stakeholders of bioenergy projects to identify group- and country-specific differences
Standardized online questionnaire with ~50 bioenergy experts in the URR based on a Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis
Local acceptance Analysis of the local acceptance of biogas plants in the trinational URR
Standardized questionnaire survey of residents living in a 1km radius around biogas plants in 10 communities in the URR (~500 respondents)
Example: Consideration of acceptance issues within the OUI Biomasse project (1/2)
24 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Preliminary results Key player analysis
Drivers: financial incentives and political framework conditions Barriers: substrate availability, logistics, efficiency of bioenergy plants Success factors: projects must be embedded in local actors networks and value chains
Decision analysis Roles of the stakeholders are more decisive for their evaluation of acceptance criteria than nationality. Predominating criteria for a high acceptance stated by the experts: Competitive plants, biomass provision, local impacts
Local acceptance Substantial differences in acceptance levels between countries and individual communities Acceptance depends on a row of factors such as the type of feedstock (e.g. energy plants or household waste), direct impacts (smell), information and participation possibilities.
Example: Consideration of acceptance issues within the OUI Biomasse project (2/2)
25 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Agenda
Background: value chain-orientated biomass conversion technology evaluation
Aspects of a value chain orientation in the evaluation of biomass conversion technologies
Raw material production aspects Logistical aspects Uncertainties
Stakeholder acceptance
Conclusions
26 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Conclusions
Biomass conversion technology assessment requires the consideration of the value chain context
Recent and ongoing works give examples for the consideration of Raw material production Logistics Uncertainties Acceptance issues
Ongoing works need to be continued and further elaborated
Integration of the mutliple aspects and approaches required including also the use and the end-of-life phase
27 Schultmann et al.: System Analysis of biomass-‐based value chains: Important aspects, Bangkok, 03 June 2015
Thank you for your attention.
Prof. Dr. Frank Schultmann Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Institute for Industrial Production (IIP) French-German Institute for Environmental Research (DFIU) Hertzstraße 16 D-76187 Karlsruhe Germany T: +49 721 608 4 4569 E: [email protected] Web: www.iip.kit.edu
Top Related