Shell Global Solutions
The Future of Transportation FuelsThe Future of Transportation Fuels
Colin ChinColin Chin
22nd November 2006, Jakarta
The 1st Indonesia Fuel and Lubes Conference and Exhibition 2006
ContentContent
• Changes effecting fuel and vehicle technology
• Latest in conventional fuels
• Diesel
• Gasoline
• Emerging Fuels
• Bio fuels
• X-to-Liquid (GtL, BtL, CtL)
• Hydrogen
• Conclusions
changes to automotive technology and fuels are required to meet sustainability challenges
• ‘Sustainable mobility’ - maintaining mobility while reducing local and global environmental impacts
• Economic and social sustainability criteria also need to be met
• Consumer acceptance a challenge.
Challenges of increased mobilityChallenges of increased mobility
Global Issues & EU Vehicle/Fuel responsesGlobal Issues & EU Vehicle/Fuel responses
0.14
0.08
0.05
0.025
00.020.040.060.080.1
0.120.140.16
PM (g
/km
)
Pre1992
1992 1996 2000 2005 2008/9
50002000
500 350
50
10
1
10
100
1000
10000
Die
sel S
ulph
ur(p
pm,w
)
PreEuro 1
Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5
Environmentalissue
Technologyissue
1992
1996
2000
2005
2008/2009
Euro 5
Ozone/NOxParticle no.Global Warming
NOx Particle mass & no.
2012/2013
Euro 1
Acid rain Lower SOx
Euro 2
Acid Rain Lower SOx
Euro 3
Ozone NOx/HC
Euro 4
OzoneParticlesGlobal warming
NOxLower PM
Euro 6
Global Warming?
?
FirstOxycats
BetterOxycatsCe traps
Ba NOxtraps
CRT
In many developed markets, significant progress has already beenIn many developed markets, significant progress has already beenmade reducing local emissions.made reducing local emissions.
Future challenge: reduce CO2 while maintaining low regulated emissions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Em
issi
ons,
% o
f 199
5 le
v
CONOxPM-dieselVOCBenzeneSO2CO2
Source : European Commission
COCO22
…… due to due to improvements in improvements in conventional vehicles conventional vehicles and fuelsand fuels
Focus is shifting to Focus is shifting to Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gases (GHG)(GHG)(global warming)(global warming)
a view of the future -not a forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100% of New cars
Diesel (inc Bio-diesel/GTL)
Gasoline (inc Ethanol)
Hydrogen
2000 2010 2020
LPG/CNG
Hybrid
Naphtha/Methanol
conventional liquid fuels will continue to dominate for a long time to come
There is no single Future Fuels SolutionThere is no single Future Fuels Solution
• The next 20-30 years will see a wider range of vehicle technologies and fuel types, especially in developed markets
Thermodynamic Efficiency/Reduced Emissions
Purc
hase
/mai
nten
ance
co
sts
GM, DaimlerChrysler
Daimler/Chrysler, VW/Audi, Peugeot/Citroen
MitsubishiVW/Audi
Toyota, Honda,Subaru
GasolineEngine
Fuel Cell Vehicles
Diesel Engine
HCCI EngineHybrid
Gasoline Engines
Hybrid Diesel Engines
Highly OptimizedDiesel Engines
Direct InjectionGasoline Engine
Technology Trend
Improved Fuels enable more Efficient and lower Emissions Engine Improved Fuels enable more Efficient and lower Emissions Engine TechnologiesTechnologies
Shell Global Solutions
Latest developments in Conventional FuelsLatest developments in Conventional Fuels
1. Diesel1. Diesel2. Gasoline2. Gasoline
More than 50 years of diesel fuel innovationMore than 50 years of diesel fuel innovation
Shell’s international experience in the area of fuel development and is well recognized as being of World Class standard
Shell & Audi made history being the first to win 24hrs LeMans race with a diesel car powered by Shell V-Power Diesel.
Shell Diesel Shell Diesel –– Performance in a DI DieselPerformance in a DI Diesel
Scanning electron micrographs of direct injection light duty fuel injector holes showing lower deposits with detergent fuel (applicable to modern light vehicles, taxis and passenger cars)
Deposits controlled Deposits built up
The effect of dirty fuel on injection equipment is The effect of dirty fuel on injection equipment is clearly clearly and quickly and quickly visiblevisible
Comparison of DI injector cleanliness
Dirty fuelClean fuel
Shell Global Solutions
Latest developments in Conventional FuelsLatest developments in Conventional Fuels
1. Diesel1. Diesel2. Gasoline2. Gasoline
Higher Octane for better efficiency Higher Octane for better efficiency
• Octane quality is still the most important fuel property for gasoline engines.
• Performance, economy and CO2 emissions would all benefit from higher octane quality for modern engines.
• Most engine designers outside North America would like to see higher octane fuels, but with no increase in aromatics, olefins or use of alcohols.
• There are substantial performance benefits in many vehicles fromoperating on high octane (98 RON or higher) fuels.
• The most recent “Optimum Octane” studies show that the optimum has increased, and the refining energy and CO2 penalties from higheroctane fuels are small (though the cost may be substantial).
Higher Octane to reduce vehicle COHigher Octane to reduce vehicle CO�� emissionsemissions
• Higher RON gives more power and fuel efficiency because of better anti-knock quality.
• 37 European and Japanese SI cars tested so far.
• Future engines will require high RON gasoline.
32.00
33.00
34.00
35.00
36.00
37.00
38.00
39.00
40.00
85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0
OI=2.1RON -1.1MON
Ave
rage
Pow
er a
t the
whe
els,
kW 98.2/94.7
98/86.9
95.6/85.8
91.1/89.7
90.2/81.4
Higher Octane protects EnginesHigher Octane protects EnginesDamage caused by insufficient OctaneDamage caused by insufficient Octane
Damage starts at edgeof piston furthest fromsparkplug
High heat transfer to the piston can causelocal melting and burningleading to catastrophic engine failure
Clean Engines for low Emissions and optimum PerformanceClean Engines for low Emissions and optimum Performance
• Clean inlet valves allow better flow of air and fuel into the combustion chamber
• This optimizes engine power
• Reduces fuel wastage
• Improves fuel efficiency
• Makes engines run smoother
• Reduces emissions
Cle
an v
alve
DIR
TY v
alve
Shell Global Solutions
New FuelsNew FuelsBioBio--DieselDiesel
EthanolEthanolShell XTLShell XTL
Overview of bioOverview of bio--componentscomponents
• Shell is the largest blender of 1st generation transport bio-fuels.
• Commercial 2nd generation bio-fuels plants are under construction
Gasoline Diesel
Food crops1st generationEthanol
Sweet cornSugar beet
wheat
advancedbiofuelsWaste
Eco-et
hanol
Enzymatic hydrolysisEco-ethanol ®
Bio-ester
s
RapeseedSoya
Sunflower
Bio-diesel
Conversion
BTL
Shell Global Solutions
Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAMEs) or (BioFatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAMEs) or (Bio--diesel)diesel)
RME (Europe) –– rapeseed methyl esterrapeseed methyl ester•approx. 2 million diesel vehicles now use RME and RME blends
•key producers: France (RME-5) & Italy, Germany & Austria (RME-100)
SME (USA)-- soy methyl estersoy methyl ester•use increasing since registered with EPA
•mostly SME-100 and SME-20 POME + CME (Far East)
--palm oil / coconut methyl esterspalm oil / coconut methyl esters
-trials and research underway for use of POME in Malaysia & Thailand and CME in Philippines
Common FAMEsCommon FAMEs
fuel consumptionincreases up to 20%with FAME-100
re-fuelling times& foamingsimilar to AGO
negligible impact for 5% blends
reduced acceleration &lower average speed
for FAME-100
less visible smokeexhaust odour OK
(up to 30%)
fuel additive compatibility –increased deposits ?
material compatibility – in some older vehicles
The Impact of FAMEs on vehicle performanceThe Impact of FAMEs on vehicle performance
Shell Global Solutions
BioBio--ethanol (gasoline)ethanol (gasoline)
fuel consumptionIncreases 3% with10% EtOH
negligible impact for 5% blends
Drivability concernsengine tuning with
>20% required
No impact onemissions with3-way catalyst
fuel additive compatibility –increased deposits ?
material compatibility – in some older vehicles
The Impact of Ethanol (EtOH) on vehicle performanceThe Impact of Ethanol (EtOH) on vehicle performance
Standard bio-ethanol production steps
Ethanol from nonEthanol from non--food sources: IOGENfood sources: IOGEN
Straw- hemi-cellulose- cellulose- lignin
Pre-treatment
Enzyme production
Steam generation
Hydrolysis Fermentation Distillation
Lignin
enzymes
C5+C6 sugars ethanol
Simplified Process
Iogen’s EcoEthanolTM facility in Ottawa, Canada
ethanol/gasoline blends
Use non-food biomass to produce ethanol for blending into conventional
gasoline to reduce CO2 emissions
www.bio-fuels.dk
BioBio--Fuels are RealityFuels are Reality
• Shell has successfully implemented “Gasohol” in Thailand.
• “Gasohol” is a blend made from 10% Ethanol and 90% gasoline
• “Gasohol” has a tax advantage resulting in 7% lower retail price.
• Current market share of “Gasohol” is about 50% of Thai ULG95 market
Shell Global Solutions
Shell XtLShell XtLX=X= GGasas--X= X= BBiomassiomass-- tto o LLiquidiquidX =X =CCoaloal--
Identical Products
Natural Gas
GTL
Biomass
CoalFischer-Tropsch process
Syngas
BTL
CTL
Shell Gasification
Process
Shell Coal Gasification
Process
Gasifier
XTL XTL –– Synthetic fuel from gas, coal and biomassSynthetic fuel from gas, coal and biomass
• Synthetic fuel refers to liquids from gas (GTL), coal (CTL) and biomass (BTL)
• Products from gas, coal and biomass are identical
• Flexible feedstock options (e.g. coal and biomass co-firing)
Comparison of Energy CyclesComparison of Energy Cycles
Following nature‘s practice – but much faster!
400 million years
1 year 24 hours
Energy SourceThe Sun
Plant growth thru photosynthesis
Formation of fossil energy sources
Exploration of fossil energy sources
Traditional fuelsGasoline / Diesel
Carbo-V ® ProcessPlant growth thru photosynthesis
Sustainable SourceBiomass
Shell Global Solutions
Gaseous FuelsGaseous FuelsCNG & LPGCNG & LPGHydrogenHydrogen
CNG and LPG have been advocated as clean alternatives, but CNG and LPG have been advocated as clean alternatives, but attractiveness reduces as gasoline & diesel quality improvesattractiveness reduces as gasoline & diesel quality improves
• CNG
• Low Sulphur => low PM, NOx & SOx
• Can substitute oil imports
• Expensive infrastructure
• Bulky on-board storage
• Shell companies retail CNG in countries like Argentina, Pakistan.
• Longer term, GTL diesel offers same advantages at lower infrastructure costs.
• LPG
• Lower sulphur => PM, NOx and SOx
• Overall emissions similar to CNG
• Infrastructure costs lower than CNG
• Less bulky storage
• Supplied by Shell in many markets for both fleet and private motorist,
• LPG fuel quality is better controlled than CNG.
CNG & LPG have potential as a niche fuel where conventional fuel is a laggard in addressing urban pollution.
Emission Benefits E2 vs. E4 Options
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Diesel EU2 Diesel EU4 (no DPF) Diesel EU4 (DPF) CNG EU3 / 4 LPG EU4
Vehicle Options
Emis
sion
s
PMNOxHCCO
All options can meet E4 PM2.5 emission standards as existing E2 diesel taxi is being replaced progressively
Euro IV PM Limit
Diesel Engines become as Clean as Gas EnginesDiesel Engines become as Clean as Gas Engines
HydrogenHydrogen
• Shell is actively involved in hydrogen demonstration projects all around the world
• Operates hydrogen filling stations in Europe, the US and Japan, with plans to build more in the US and China
• However there are many challenges to be overcome before hydrogencan be commercially viable on a large scale
• Cost and performance of fuel cells
• Onboard hydrogen storage capacity
• Improvements in sustainable hydrogenproduction
• Consistency in regulations andstandards
• Financial costs of infrastructure
• Social acceptance
ConclusionsConclusions
Low Green House Gas emissions are the target for the future Low Green House Gas emissions are the target for the future Need for a WellNeed for a Well--toto--Wheels approachWheels approach
• Systematic approach
• Assessment of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions
Well-to-Tank
Well
Wheel
WellWell--toto--Wheel Greenhouse GasesWheel Greenhouse Gases
0100200300400500600700800
Gasolin
e ICE
Diesel
ICE
Gasolin
e Fuel
Cell H
EV
Diesel
ICE H
EV
Naphtha F
uel Cell
HEV
FT Dies
el IC
ECNG IC
E
FT Nap
htha FC H
EV
Liquid H2 F
C HEV
Methan
ol Fuel
Cell H
EV
Gaseo
us H2 F
C HEV
E-85 IC
E
Electro
lysis
H 2FC H
EV
Ethanol F
uel Cell
HEV
g CO2/mile Petroleum Natural GasRenewable/Electricity
Better
ICE- internal combustion engineHEV – hybrid electrical vehicle
WTWWTW Analysis of RMEAnalysis of RME ––A Shell Global Solutions StudyA Shell Global Solutions Study
Presented at World Bio-fuels Conference, Seville (April 2002)
W2W CO2 emissions (g/km) from Ford Focus 1.8 - Fossil diesel and RME under different scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
250
Diesel Base Case RME base case RME base case +fertiliser N2O
Land ConversionScenario
Importation
CO
2 g/
km
improvements improvements in in
conventional conventional fuels & fuels &
vehiclesvehicles
local emissions global emissions
short-to-mid term
solutions (20 years)
long-term solutions (2020+)
biobio--ethanolethanol
BioBio--DieselDieselBTLBTL
GTLGTL
LPG* (& LPG* (& CNG*)CNG*)
Hydrogen*Hydrogen*
* require non-conventional vehicle technology
Clean Diesel
Summary Summary –– Key Options for the futureKey Options for the future
ShellShell’’s Approachs Approach
• Quality cost-competitive conventional fuels
• Global leader in differentiated fuels
• Early leader in GTL
• OEM and technology partnerships
• Selling first generation bio-fuels today
• Proactively developing advanced bio-fuels (including BTL)
• Preparing for longer term fuels (Hydrogen)
Ferrari F1 Partnership
Le Mans car using GTL Fuel blend
Combustion engines remain the dominant form of propulsion for thCombustion engines remain the dominant form of propulsion for the next e next 2020--30 years30 years
IC Engines75%
Hybrids24%
Hydrogen1%
IC Engines92%
Hybrids4%
Hydrogen4%
New car registrations USA 2030
Source : ExxonMobil Energy Outlook New car registrations Europe 2020
Source : EUCAR
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