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Northern Hub – the business case
Duncan Law26 June 2012
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Why invest in rail – a reminder
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The economics
1. Within city regions2. Between city regions3. To access international
gateways EC
ON
OM
IC G
RO
WT
H
Adequate capacityReliable journeysReasonable journey times
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Constraints in meeting service aspirations
Options for resolving constraints
Service specification for new infrastructure
Value of new specification
Identification of economic outputs
The economics – key corridors
Identify the economic gap
Compare the North GVA per capita to London & South East
Identify how rail can contribute
Connecting businessLabour to jobsMoving goods
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The economics – key corridors
Timetable-driven passenger service benefit per unit Generalised Journey Time (GJT) improvement
Crowding benefits per incremental AM peak seat
Freight benefits per incremental freight path to Trafford Park.
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Constraints in meeting service aspirations
Options for resolving constraints
Service specification for new infrastructure
Value of new specification
Identification of economic outputs
The economics – analysis
WEBTAGRevenueValue of timeNon user benefits Crowding
WEBS AgglomerationLabour supplyImperfect competition
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The economics – analysis
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Constraints in meeting service aspirations
Options for resolving constraints
Service specification for new infrastructure
Value of new specification
Identification of economic outputs
The economics – Conditional outputs
1. Capacity and Flexibility2. Carbon Reduction3. Performance4. Journey Times5. Growth Centres in Greater Manchester6. Connectivity to Deliver Economic Benefits7. Manchester Airport8. Trans Pennine9. North South Links and High Speed Rail10. Freight
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Delivering faster, more frequent services
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Funding for Northern Hub - Ordsall Chord
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Further funding for Northern Hub
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The evolution of the programme
SERVICE OUTPUTSBUSINESS CASE
INTERVENTIONS
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HS2 and the Northern Hub
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Manchester Victoria: before…..
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….and after
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Electrifying across the North West…
Phase 3
Phase 2a Phase 1
Phase 2bPhase 4
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…and across the Trans-Pennine route
Micklefield Junction
Heaton Lodge Junction
Copley Hill East Junction
Colton Junction
HUDDERSFIELD
LEEDS
STALYBRIDGE
GUIDE BRIDGE
MANCHESTER VICTORIA
Mirfield East Junction
Neville Hill Depot
CORE ROUTE TO BE ELECTRIFIED
EXISTING ELECTRIFIED
EXISTING NON-ELECTRIFIED
TRANS PENNINE ELECTRIFICATIONCORE ROUTE
ECML
Ashburys West
Junction
Phillips Park Junction
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Summary
• CP4
• Northern Hub
• North West Electrification
• CP5 renewal and enhancement portfolio
• HS2
SERVICE OUTPUTSBUSINESS CASE
INTERVENTIONS
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Next steps
HLOS summer 2012
@networkrailNH
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