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Land Redistribution: Towards a common vision
Why do we care about land redistribution today?Part I: Messages from WDR 2008, “Agriculture for Development”Part II: Implications of WDR 2008 strategy for access to land and land redistribution
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Part I. World Development Report 2008
“75% of the world’s poor are rural and
most are involved in farming.
Agriculture remains a
fundamental instrument for
sustainable development and poverty reduction”
Agriculture for Development
Preliminary version in progress
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WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
Storyline1. Agriculture remains fundamental for
development, and differentially by context,
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used.
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty,
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed,
5. Requiring differentiated agendas and improved governance.
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Premise one: There are three worlds for the roles of agriculture in growth and poverty
AZE
BDI
BEN
BFA
BGD
BGR
BLR
BOLBRA
CHL
CHN
CIV
CMR
COL
DOM
ECU
EGY
ETH
GHA
GTM
HND
HUN
IDNIND
IRN
KEN
KHM
LAO
LKAMAR
MDG
MEX
MLIMOZ
MWI
NERNGA
NPL
PAK
PER
PHL
POL
PRY
ROM
RUS
RWA
SEN
SLV
THA
TJK
TUN
TUR
TZA
UGA
UKRVEN
VNM
YEM
ZAF
ZMB
AGO
ARG
CZE
DZA
GIN
MYS
PNG
SDN
SVK
SYR
TCD
TGO
ZAR
ZWE
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Rural poor/total poor, 2002
Agriculture's contribution to growth, 1990-2005
Poverty data from Ravallion et al. 2007
Other predicted poverty data
Dynamic analysis
Urbanized countries
Agriculture-based countries
Transforming countries
70-75
90-96
Indonesia (1970-96)
Brazil (1970-96)
India (1965-94)
China (1981-2001)
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Premise two: There is deep heterogeneity across areas, households, and intra-
householdFavored vs marginal areas
Agro-ecology, market access, growth-povertyHousehold heterogeneity
Smallholders: Market-oriented vs subsistenceRural non-farm enterprises: low vs. high productivityLabor markets: high vs low skillsMigration: out of vs. into poverty
Intra-household differencesGender roles, access to assets
Differentiated impacts of a policy; and differentiated policies in using agriculture for development
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Three functions for agriculture in development
First function: A source of aggregate growth for the agriculture-based countries
Why/how can agriculture (and agroindustry) be a source of aggregate growth for the agriculture-based countries (Sub-Saharan Africa)?
A large sector: 29% of GDP, 65% of labor force
With limited tradability (due to commodity specificity, transactions costs), must invest in agriculture as domestic production determines the price of food and wage costs
Where tradable, current comparative advantage in primary sectors based on resource endowments, weak investment climate for industry
Multiplier effects of agricultural growth on other sectors
Note: With limited tradability, domestic production contributes importantly to food security.
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Urban Poverty
050
100150200250300350400450
SA SSA EAP LAC ECA MENA
million people
19932003
Rural Poverty
050
100150200250300350400450
SA SSA EAP LAC ECA MENA
million people
19932002
Second function: A source of livelihoods for many,
but (1) a huge reservoir of poverty
3 billion rural people, 2.5 billion agricultural population, 1.3 billion agricultural labor force, 800 million smallholder population
2.1 billion rural poor ($2/day), 900 million extreme rural poor ($1/day)
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(2) With rising rural-urban income disparities in the transforming countries which are a source of political tensions
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Guatemala
1989-2002
Thailand
1990-2002
Cambodia
1997-2004
China
1985-2001
Vietnam
1992-2001
Indonesia
1993-2002
Bangladesh
1991-2000
India
1989-1999
Pakistan
1999-2001
Ratio of urban to rural median income
Initial year End year
The ratio of median urban to rural income has been rising in transforming countries
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But agricultural growth has unique powers for poverty reduction
GDP growth from agriculture benefits the poorest half 4 times more than GDP growth from non-agriculture
GDP growth from agriculture benefits the poorest half 4 times more than GDP growth from non-agriculture
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Lowest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HighestExpenditure decilesExpenditure gains induced by 1%
GDP growth (%)
Agriculture
Nonagriculture
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Message 1Accelerating aggregate growth in the agriculture-
based countries (Sub-Saharan Africa) requires achieving a productivity revolution in smallholder farming
Message 2
Addressing the disparity problem in transforming countries requires a comprehensive approach to shift to high value agriculture, extend the green revolution to lagging regions, decentralize economic activity to rural
areas, and help people move out of agriculture
Message 1Accelerating aggregate growth in the agriculture-
based countries (Sub-Saharan Africa) requires achieving a productivity revolution in smallholder farming
Message 2
Addressing the disparity problem in transforming countries requires a comprehensive approach to shift to high value agriculture, extend the green revolution to lagging regions, decentralize economic activity to rural
areas, and help people move out of agriculture
3 worlds, 3 functions of agriculture for development
Urbanized countries: including smallholders in modern food markets and creating good rural jobs
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Third function: An important user and often mis-user of natural resources
62.9%
15.4%11.4%
6.6%3.8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Energy Agriculture(excluding land
use change)
Deforestation Industrialprocesses
Waste
Percent of total GHG emissions
Developing countries
Developed countries
Agriculture uses 85% of water withdrawals and causes most of deforestation in developing countries
Contributes to global warming: 21% (up to 35%) of Green House Gas emissions
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The high cost of weather dependency: The importance of climate proofing
-10-505
101520
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
GDP growth (%)-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.5
Rainfall variability (%)
GDP growth (annual %) Rainfall
Zimbabwe’s GDP closely tracks rainfall under normal conditions
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Message 3Development an environment have become
inextricably coupledReducing agriculture’s large environmental
footprint is an inevitable requirement for success, climate proofing of the farming
systems of the poor is urgent, and providing environmental services can be one of the
development contributions of agriculture
Message 3Development an environment have become
inextricably coupledReducing agriculture’s large environmental
footprint is an inevitable requirement for success, climate proofing of the farming
systems of the poor is urgent, and providing environmental services can be one of the
development contributions of agricultureKey for this are removing perverse input subsidies,
better definition of property rights, wider use of conservation technologies, devolution to communities of control over common property resources, research and
investments for farming system resilience, and developing markets for environmental services
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WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development, and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used: why?
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
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Real international commodity prices have been suppressed by current global trade
policies (% of undistorted price)
Trade share losses to developing countries due to current global trade policies
(% point loss to developing country trade shares)
Under-use as global trade distortions remain pervasive
-3
-4
-4
-5
-7
-12
-15
-21
Sugar
Rice
Processed meat
Wheat
Other grains
Dairy products
Oilseed
Cotton
-9
-2
-18
-21
-5
-7
-34
-27
Sugar
Rice
Processed meat
Wheat
Course grains
Dairy products
Oilseed
Cotton
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Under-use as taxation of agriculture exports remains high in the agriculture-based and
transforming countries
-26
-19-16
5
-49
-25
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Agriculture-based Transforming Urbanized
Nominal rate of assistance (percent)1980-84 2000-04
ExportablesExportables
Net taxation in the agriculture-based countries: 26% (1980-84) --> 10% (2000-04)
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Under-use as public spending on agriculture is low in the agriculture-based countries
relative to the share of agriculture in GDP
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24
14
29
16
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Agriculture-based Transforming Urbanized
percent
1980 2004
4
10
17
4
1112
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Agriculture-based Transforming Urbanized
percent
1980 2004
Public spending on Ag/Ag GDP
Ag GDP/GDP
Transforming countries in 1980 had a much higher share of public spending on agriculture as a share of Ag GDP (10%) than the agriculture-based countries do today
(4%) even though they had similar shares of agriculture in GDP
Transforming countries in 1980 had a much higher share of public spending on agriculture as a share of Ag GDP (10%) than the agriculture-based countries do today
(4%) even though they had similar shares of agriculture in GDP
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Mis-use is also pervasive: Subsidies are now four times larger than public investment in Indian agriculture
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Percentage of AgGDP
Subsidies
Public Investment
19
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
% poverty in rural areas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
% ODA to agriculture
Under-use as donor support to agriculture has declined while rural poverty remained
dominant
% rural poverty% rural poverty
% ODA to Ag% ODA to Ag
With turning pointin ODA to agriculture after 2004
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WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development, and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
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New opportunities to use agriculture for development last
25 yearsImproved macro-economic conditions favorable to agricultural growth in SS-AfricaDynamic demand for a “new agriculture” of high value products and non-traditional exports; expanding regional markets for staple foodsInstitutional innovations: land administration, financial services, governance, producer organizationsTechnological innovations: yields and resistance, IT, conservation agriculture, GMOs, breeds and vaccinesExpanding sources of income in the rural non-farm economy
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Opportunities: New actors and new roles
A redefined role for the state and a new commitment to agriculture (NEPAD 10%)
Regulation, decentralization, and partnershipsIncreasing role of the private and corporate sectors
Agribusiness and the supermarket revolutionThickening of civil society
Rapid increase in producer organizations, role NGOsA renewed donor interest in agriculture and new philanthropy
New opportunities for public-private-civil society partnerships in using agriculture for development, and a new political economy
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Conclude: Opportunities open multiple pathways out of poverty for rural
households
Pathways out of poverty: not by agriculture alone
Smallholder farming
Agricultural wage employment; wage and self-employment in the rural non-farm economy
Migration and remittances
Recognize important gender dimensions to each pathway at the household level
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Message 4Toward a comprehensive approach
The new opportunities for agriculture open multiple pathways out of poverty for
rural populations as commercial smallholders, workers in agriculture and
the rural non-farm economy, and migrants. It is also providing opportunities to improve the livelihoods and food security of large
numbers of subsistence farmers and unskilled farm workers
Message 4Toward a comprehensive approach
The new opportunities for agriculture open multiple pathways out of poverty for
rural populations as commercial smallholders, workers in agriculture and
the rural non-farm economy, and migrants. It is also providing opportunities to improve the livelihoods and food security of large
numbers of subsistence farmers and unskilled farm workers
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WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development, and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Differentiated agendas and improved governance
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Improving governance to implement agriculture-for-development agendas
Weakness of governance as a hurdleGovernance weakest in agriculture-based countries
Governance weak in agriculture vs other sectors
Global governance needed for successful national agendas, but deficient
Improving governance at national, local, and global levelsNational and local: Inter-sectoral coordination, Min of Ag., decentralization
Global: Coordinate sectoral agencies for complex and inter-related issues (trade, poverty and security, climate change, health, IPGs)
Coordinate with new corporate and philanthropic actors
Message 5: Using agriculture for development requires fixing the current serious deficiencies in local, national,
and global governance for agriculture
Message 5: Using agriculture for development requires fixing the current serious deficiencies in local, national,
and global governance for agriculture
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WDR 2008-Agriculture for Development
1. Agriculture remains fundamental for development, and differentially by context
2. But the powers of agriculture are often under-used
3. There are new opportunities to use agriculture that open multiple pathways out of poverty
4. With new (and lingering) challenges to be addressed
5. Requiring differentiated agendas and improved governance.
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From opportunities to objectives: a policy diamond
Socio political context Governance
Macro fundamentalsAgricultural policy
Socio political context Governance
Macro fundamentalsAgricultural policy
3Improve livelihoods in
subsistence agriculture and low skill rural
occupations
4Increase employment in
agriculture and the RNFE; enhance skills
1Access to markets
Establish efficient value chain
2Enhance smallholder
competitivenessFacilitate market entry
Pathways out of poverty:
farming, labor, migration
Social transition Social transition
Demand for Ag products
Demand for Ag products
With indicators for diagnostic, monitoring, and evaluation
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Part II: Implications of WDR 2008 strategy for access to land and land
redistribution1. First function of agriculture for
development: Growth in agriculture-based countries
Access to land for market entry: Shift from subsistence farming to commercial smallholder
Land reform• Land redistribution• Subsidies to land purchase: LMALR
Land markets• Land sales market• Land rental market
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Enhance the competitiveness of commercial smallholders
Security of property rights: certification of rights (Mexico, Ethiopia), customary tenure, conflict resolution, modern land administrationDeterminants of total factor productivityLevel playing fields for smallholder competitivenessEconomies of scale and market access: producer organizations
--> The challenge of “complete” land reforms
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2. Second function of agriculture for development: Poverty reduction value of access to land
Commercial smallholder pathwaySubsistence farming as platform for diversified household income strategy (RNFE, migration)Land markets for exit/entry flexibility:• Shift to work in the rural nonfarm economy• Seasonal and permanent migration• Role of social safety nets as complements to
markets (distress sales)
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3. Third function of agriculture for development:
Environmental sustainability and provision of environmental services
Beyond poverty and land mining (role of farm size, water control): long term view (discount rate)Property rights and markets for environmental services: common property resources, devolution, capacity to manage, local and global markets for servicesResilience of farming systems: climate proofing and adjustment to energy prices
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