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CPDC/Commonwealth FoundationCaribbean Regional Civil Society
Consultation
Presentation at the Consultation Panel on Presentation at the Consultation Panel on ““CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRONMENT”CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRONMENT”
ByByGarfield BarnwellGarfield BarnwellDirector, Sustainable DevelopmentDirector, Sustainable DevelopmentCaribbean Community (CARICOM) SecretariatCaribbean Community (CARICOM) SecretariatTurkeyen, Greater Georgetown, GUYANA Turkeyen, Greater Georgetown, GUYANA
Grand Coastal Hotel, GuyanaGrand Coastal Hotel, Guyana28 June, 201128 June, 2011
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Structure of Presentation
• Background Information• Climate Change in a Global Context • Implications of Climate Change Science • Responding to the global challenges: the
basis for action• Observations and some key questions
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Background Information• Climate change has emerged as one of the greatest
threats to sustainable development.
• The scientific consensus is that increased concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions, resulting from human activities, have contributed to global temperature increases.
• Predicted impacts, depending on the extent of temperature change, include sea level rises and more severe and frequent droughts and storms.
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Figure I: The Greenhouse Effect
Met Office Hadley Centre
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Figure 2 :Strong Global Warming Observed
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchBased on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003)
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Figure III : Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere post 1850
Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)
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Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT
0
5
10
15
20
25
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Gt C
O2
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Global emissions of greenhouse gases come from a wide range of sources
Source: World Resources Institute. 2000 estimate.
Energy – 25.6 Gt 61%Consuming fossil fuels
Land Use changes 7.6 Gt 18% primarily deforestation
Agriculture 5.6 Gt 14%mostly from soils & livestock
Electricity & Heat Generation
Transport
IndustryOther energy
All GHG in CO2 equivalent
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9.4
5.4
4.1
5.8
1.5
7.6
16.8
9.3
5.6
8.1
1.9
7.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
PowerGeneration and
Heat Plants
Transport Industry Agriculture Waste Land Use
Global emissions are forecast to grow from all sources transport & power generation growing fastest
+2.1%
+2.1%
+1.1%
+1.2%
annual average forecast % growth in emissions to 2030
Source: International Energy Agency, US Environmental Protection Agency, CO2 equivalent
+0.7%
2002 actual emissions
2030 projected emissions
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Projected Changes in Global Average Temperature to 2100 under Different IPCC Emissions Scenarios
(highest – A1FI, lowest – B1)
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Change in the 2050s, based on IPCC Scenario A1
Warming will lead to major changes in water availability across the globe, with
consequences for droughts and floods
Source: Arnell (2004)
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Increase in global temperature (relative to pre-industrial levels) for different stabilisation levels
(expressed as CO2 equivalent).
Temperature change by 2100
(relative to pre-industrial)Temperature change at
equilibrium (relative to pre-industrial)
Stabilisation Level (CO2
equivalent)
Temperature change - based on
IPCC 2001 climate models
Temperature change - based on 2004 Hadley
Centre ensembles
Temperature change -
based on IPCC 2001 climate
models
Temperature change -
based on 2004 Hadley Centre
ensembles
400ppm 1.2 - 2.5C 1.6 - 2.8C 0.8 - 2.4C 1.3 - 2.8C
450ppm 1.3 - 2.7C 1.8 - 3.0C 1.0 - 3.1C 1.7 - 3.7C
550ppm 1.5 - 3.2C 2.2 - 3.6C 1.5 - 4.4C 2.4 - 5.3C
Source: Based on den Elzen and Meinhausen (2005).
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
US WestEurope
China Russia Japan India Africa Mexico Brazil
Larger developing countries account for much of the forecast rise in emissions
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT Energy Information Administration Reference Scenario, Energy emissions only
39%
11%
145%
32%5%
95%78%
63%99%
Projected emissions, 2025
2002 emissions
Gt C
O2
Energy Emissions only
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Current emissions per capita are higher in developed countries
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1110
9
43
21
0
5
10
15
20
United Statesof America
RussianFederation
Japan EuropeanUnion (25)
World China Brazil India
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT
2002 CO2Energy Emissions only
Ton
nes
per
pers
on p
er y
ear
CO
2
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To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must start to fall soon & developing countries
must be part of the solution
Business as usual
(A2)
Source IPPC
The Focus of the Regional Strategic Framework
• Adaptation challenges over time depends on Mitigation progress;
• Progress on Mitigation determines the approach to address the critical sectoral issues relating to Agriculture, Ecosystems, Water, Health, among others
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The Regional Strategy
• The strategy document is guided by two processes:
(1)—the outcome of the BPOA and the MSI which is complemented by the UNFCCC decisions relating to Adaptation and the special circumstances of SIDS;
(2) The institutional information and best practices developed from the implementation of a series of region projects
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The CARICOM Adaptation Guidelines
• The CARICOM Adaptation Programme is guided by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee’s recommended stages outlined below:
• Stage I: Planning, which includes studies of possible impacts of climate change, to identify particularly vulnerable countries or regions and policy options for adaptation and appropriate capacity building;
• Stage II: Measures, including further capacity-building, which may be taken to prepare for adaptation, as envisaged in Article 4.1(e) of the UNFCCC; and
• Stage III: Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, including insurance, and other adaptation measures as envisaged by Article 4.1(b) and Article 4.4 of the UNFCCC.
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Summary of the CARICOM Programme of Adaptation ( 1997-2011)
Public Awareness
and Participation
Implementation
Institution
KnowledgeBase
Policy
CPACC 1997 - 2001 ACCC 2001 - 2004
Building awareness and strengtheningknowledge base
1. Building Awareness2. Building monitoring and analysis capacity3. Building planning capacity in institutions
Public Awareness
and Participation
Implementation
Institution
KnowledgeBase
Policy
MACC 2004 - 2008 Building awareness and strengtheningknowledge base
1. Building national policy framework for adaptation2. Mainstreaming climate change issues into key sector activities3. Preparation of pilot adaptation projects4. Further strenghtening of awareness and participation andknowledge base
Public Awareness
and Participation
Implementation
Institution
KnowledgeBase
Institution
SPACC 2007 - 2011PILOT ADAPTATIONS
1. Policy framework for adaptation in place2. Projects implemented3. Awareness and participation accomplished4. Monitoring, analysis and planning integrated throughout all national and sectoral planning
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ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE( A Caribbean Programme of Action)
Factors Considered :
•Geographic location Natural and Anthropogenic effects •Impact of Global EconomicsChanges on the Caribbean•Desire for Economic sustainability in the region• The consequences of global warming and sea level rise in the Caribbean•The CARICOM Adaptation Programme
GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS
• The Caribbean consists of 28 insular and coastal states and ten territories;
• The World Bank in a May 2009 Report on Climate Change in the Hemispheric indicated that from a list of the 25 vulnerable countries to sea level rise 6 CARICOM (Suriname,Bahamas,Guyana,Belize,Jamaica,Haiti) are among the most vulnerable)
• It is one of the largest salt water seas and has an area of about 2,754,000 km² (1,063,000 square miles).
• It has an estimated population of 40 million people of which some 70% live in coastal cities, towns and villages
• Approximately 38 percent of the population can be classified as poor.
NATURAL & ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS
• six months of hurricane activity • significant climate variability• several active volcanoes, both on land and
under water• Significant seismic activity
• Poor land marine practices• Damage to ecosystems use management
coupled with poor
ECONOMIC FACTORS
• Elements of economic globalization impacting the region’s environment through reduction of access to traditional markets as a result of the WTO agreement, since
• Economic activities are frequently dominated by tourism and specialized agriculture such as sugarcane, and
• Economic growth has failed to keep pace with population growth.
OBSERVED CHANGES IN CURRENT CLIMATE
• The region is already experiencing changing weather patterns with more intense extremes including drought, floods and hurricanes.
• Temperature records have shown an increase during the last century, with the 1990s being the warmest decade since the beginning of the 20th century.
• Rainfall trends have been changing along with increased flooding in some areas and unusual droughts in other areas.
• The tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea warm pool has been expanding resulting in:– more frequent category 4 and 5 hurricanes resulting in
mechanical damage to coral reefs and coastal erosion;– extensive coral bleaching and mortality.
ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
• Taken separately and collectively, these natural and anthropogenic factors are serious impediments to any effort at sustainable development and the attainment of the millennium development goals (MDG).
• As an example, Grenada an island of population 90,000 is still recovering from hurricane Ivan of 2004. Damage from the hurricane has set back the country by decades.
• The total damage was estimated at over US$1 billion compared to its GDP of US$440 million.
• Hurricane damage in 2004 for the greater Caribbean was in excess of US$4 billion.
• This yearly trend has continued through 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008.
The consequences of global warming and sea level rise in the Caribbean
• A warming climate and rising sea levels will pose significant, and in some cases insurmountable challenges to the region’s economic and social vulnerability. It will certainly have a negative impact on:– Agriculture and Fisheries, hence on its food security – Tourism, hence on its economic sustainability– Health, through increases in vector-borne diseases
and other heat- related diseases– Water quality and quantity– Human Settlements, especially on the smaller
islands.
The consequences of global warming and sea level rise in the Caribbean
cont’d• A recent study has shown the potential
economic costs as a percentage of GDP to Caribbean SIDS if no action is taken to reduce the impacts of climate change:– By 2025 the average cost to the region will
be 14% of its GDP increasing to 39% by 2050, 45% by 2075 and 63% by 2100.
THE END
MANY THANKS FOR LISTENING
More Information:
www.caricom.org
www.caribbeanclimate.bz
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