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Brendan DevlinAdviser, Markets and InfrastructureDirectorate B, DG ENEREuropean Commission
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2008/2009 2011 2014
Climate and energy: where do we stand?
The EU climate and energy
package
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Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions levels by 20%
Increase share of Renewables to 20%
Reductions in 2012: -18%
2020 Targets 2020
Projection
Share in 2011:12.7%
2020 Projection
2020 Projection
Climate and energy: where do we stand?
Reduce energy consumption by 20%
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Climate and energy: where do we stand?Renewable energy saw rapid cost decreases
Technologies are gradually becoming competitive
Impact of the financial crisisFall in private investment, tight
financing conditions
Rising demand -> rising prices
By 2030, world economyset to double and energy demand
to rise by 1/3
Fukushima
Some countries phase outnuclear power production
Shale gasUS oil and gas production
Unconventional gas
Conventional gasUnconventional oil
Conventional oil
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Why a 2030 framework?
GHG reductions in a cost- effective
way
Security of energy supplies
Competitive energy and new
growth and jobs
EU contribution 2015 agreeme
nt
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• Between 35% and 45%
GHG target
• Up to 35%
RES target
• Moderate, ambitious and very ambitious energy efficiency policies
EE
• competitiveness and security of supply
Additional indicators / aspirational objectives
IA's policy options: 7 scenarios
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IA main conclusions
Reference scenario• 32% GHG reductions
• 24% RES• 21% Energy savings
Costs related to ambitious GHG targets are relatively limited if targets are met in a cost-effective way
Ambitious EE and RES have positive impacts on • External fuel bill
• Health (lower pollutant emissions)
• GDP and jobs
Energy Efficiency is key to contain energy cost increases
Global climate efforts will have positive impacts EU competitiveness
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2030 climate and energy Framework
20 % GHG
40 % GHG
20% RES
20 % EE
≥ 27 % RES
..2014
2020
2030New Key Indicato
rs
New governance system
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2030 Framework: Key indicators
Energy price differentials
Diversification imports,share of
indigenous energy
Smart grids & connections
between Member States
Intra-EU coupling energy markets
Technological innovation
Competition and market
concentration
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2030 Framework: New Governance System National plans for competitive, secure and sustainable energy
Commission details guidance on the new governance process and contents of national plans
Member States prepare plans based on an iterative process
Commission assess Member States' plans and commitments
Include domestic objectives on: • non-ETS GHG
emissions• renewable
energy• energy
savings• energy
security• ….
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Main challenges…
• Increasing in any event: renew ageing energy system, rising fossil fuel prices, meeting the climate and energy targets already agreed upon
Energy costs
• Shift away from fuel expenditure towards investments, additional € 38 billion investment/year 2011-2030 compared to the reference scenario
Additional investments to achieve 2030 framework
• Future discussion will have to be centred on how to ensure an equitable burden sharing affordable for all
Differences between Member States
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…and benefits
• Fuel savings: additional € 18 billion fuel per year next 2 decades• Energy security: additional 11% cut in energy imports in 2030• Innovation: jobs & growth• Health and air pollution benefits: €7-13.5 billion in 2030
Reductions vs 2005:
ETS -43%
Non ETS -30%
Decoupling of Gross Domestic Product growth from Greenhouse Gas Emissions will continue
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Next steps
At European level
March 2014: European Council
February 2014: European Parliament
Energy Efficiency Directive: 2014 Review and proposals
Emissions Trading System proposal: co-decision procedure
Development/implementation of new governance structure
Competitiveness and energy security indicators
And at international level
2014: Ban Ki-moon Climate Summit of World leaders
2015: contributions from Parties; Paris conference adopts international agreement
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ec.europa.eu/energy/2030
LZ/A1
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A legislative proposal to establish a market stability reserve for the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)
Recommendation, accompanied by a Communication, on the environmental aspects on unconventional fossil fuels
A Report, accompanied by a Communication, on energy prices and costs in Europe
Communication for a European industrial renaissance
Also in the "Package"
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