1 21st May 2014 Smart Grids: Increasing energy flexibility John
Scott [email protected] Economic and Policy Forum
Meeting
Slide 2
2 Very briefly My background: Electricity Distribution &
Transmission planning and operations Manager of the UK National
Control Centre Engineering Director of National Grid Company in UK
Technical Director for Ofgem, the GB Energy Regulator Director,
Network Innovation for KEMA Consulting Ltd Independent Consultant,
Chiltern Power Limited IET: Institution of Engineering &
Technology Energy Policy Panel
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3 What characterises todays power grid in GB ?
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4 GB Electricity Transmission Commodity type Market Customers
(homes)~28m Generation Capacity76 GW Peak Demand~60 GW Annual
electricity consumption~ 300TWh Regulated Networks Transmission Max
Voltage 400 kV 1 System Operator + 3 Trans. Owners Distribution Max
Voltage132kV 14 Licenced Distribution areas (6 companies)
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5 GB Electricity Distribution Network Owners 2013 6 Owners but
14 Licensed DNOs Electricity distribution carries electricity from
the transmission system and delivers it to consumers. Typically, it
includes 132kV, 33kV and 11kV power lines, substations and
transformers, and low-voltage (230/415 V) distribution wiring. In
GB it does not include meters.
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6 BUSINESS AS USUAL Home Local Commercial Regional National
Largely passive, domestic users Few intelligent appliances LESS
DATA, LESS INTELLIGENCE, LESS CONTROL Good sensors Real time data
Advanced processing 2 way data Sparse sensors Limited data Limited
processing Limited two-way data Sensors hr data 1 / 2 Retail
processing Limited one-way meter reading No sensors Fit and forget
No electronic data transfer Manually read dumb meters No electronic
data transfer One-way power Two-way power flows Transmission and
Systems Regional distribution Commercial Properties Local
distribution Homes Transmission is a well-instrumented active
network The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2011
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7 Its all well established, so whats changing, why are smarter
grids on the agenda? Note - Google offers 3 million references for
smart grid (and 35 million for smart meter)
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8 The great centralised grids of today are largelyone-way
systems RESIDENTIAL DEMAND DISTRIBUTION NETWORK TRANSMISSION
NETWORK CENTRALISED GENERATION DISTRIBUTION NETWORK DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK RESIDENTIAL DEMAND RESIDENTIAL DEMAND RESIDENTIAL DEMAND
One-way power flows Remote generation Little communications Limited
automation A mainly passive network Delivering electricity to
passive consumers The traditional paradigm: Generate what is
Consumed acknowledgement Generation must always match Demand: there
is no storage in the networks
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9 The great centralised grids of today the challenges ahead
acknowledgement Off-shore and on-shore wind generation Distributed
Generation: central & dispersed Ageing networks EV charging PV
small and large scale Heat Pumps & Air Con Energy losses
Quality of supply & resilience Customer energy efficiency &
smart meters New hydro & marine New nuclear with larger single
loss risk Demands AND sources Network loading & voltage limits
Less- predictable loading Less- predictable generation More complex
system balancing Two-way power flows & raised FLs Loss of
demand diversity Network stable operation Lower inertia power
system Larger single loss Larger single loss: 1320 (Size B)
increased to 1800 for new nuclear
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10 The great centralised grids of today the solution
opportunities ahead Smart Vehicle Charging Home automation Plus
Hearts & Minds.. But now, within a new paradigm: Consume what
is Generated acknowledgement Power Electronics Active Distribution
Networks Real time ratings Condition Monitoring DR Demand Response
Smart metering & displays Electricity Storage Synthetic Inertia
New materials Aggregation & VPP DC embedded &
interconnection Demands AND sources Network loading & voltage
limits Less- predictable loading Less- predictable generation More
complex system balancing Two-way power flows & raised FLs Loss
of demand diversity Network stable operation Lower inertia power
system Larger single loss Generation must match Demand
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11 Demands AND sources Network loading & voltage limits
Less- predictable loading Less- predictable generation More complex
system balancing Two-way power flows & raised FLs Loss of
demand diversity Network stable operation Lower inertia power
system Larger single loss A new architecture for the power system
Smart Vehicle Charging Home automation Plus Hearts & Minds..
Power Electronics Active Distribution Networks Real time ratings
Condition Monitoring DR Demand Response Smart metering &
displays Electricity Storage Synthetic Inertia New materials
Aggregation & VPP DC embedded & interconnection Networks
for sustainability & security. the smart grids of tomorrow
acknowledgement Customer Engagement The Smart Grid Concept
Bi-directional power and information flows
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12 How might these flexible smart grids interact with the Built
Environment?
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13 Network Solutions - all voltage levels A Wide Range of
Potential Solutions: Built Environment linkages are highlighted
here The Smart Grid Concept Bi-directional power and information
flows 1.D-FACTS, STATCOMS, power electronic controllers for voltage
management 2.Solid State tap changers (inc 11kV/LV)
3.Interconnection of D-STATCOMs to create a controllable DC network
overlay 4.DC networks in homes and buildings, grid networks with
multi-terminal systems 5.Superconducting and other designs of fault
current limiters 6.Soft Open Point power electronics at LV
7.Intelligent switching logic and adaptive protection and control
8.Power electronics for synthetic inertia 9.Solid State
transformers 10.Smart EV charging for homes, streets, car parks,
intelligently co-ordinated 11.EV charging: contact-less &
mobile 12.Cyber-secure communications and interfaces 13.Waveform
cleaning and phase balancing 1.D-FACTS, STATCOMS, power electronic
controllers for voltage management 2.Solid State tap changers (inc
11kV/LV) 3.Interconnection of D-STATCOMs to create a controllable
DC network overlay 4.DC networks in homes and buildings, grid
networks with multi-terminal systems 5.Superconducting and other
designs of fault current limiters 6.Soft Open Point power
electronics at LV 7.Intelligent switching logic and adaptive
protection and control 8.Power electronics for synthetic inertia
9.Solid State transformers 10.Smart EV charging for homes, streets,
car parks, intelligently co-ordinated 11.EV charging: contact-less
& mobile 12.Cyber-secure communications and interfaces
13.Waveform cleaning and phase balancing 14.Electricity storage:
interfaces, home and community scale 15.Potential for hydrogen
production and storage 16.Microgrids for storms resilience with
intentional islanding utilising DERs 17.Phasor Management Units
(PMUs) and 18.Wide Area Monitoring, Control and protection
(WAMPACs) 19.Forecasting, modelling and visualisation for planning
/operational timescales 20.State Estimation for network
observability 21.Active Network Management (ANM) 22.Home/Building
Energy Management Systems, Smart Meters & Displays 23.Custom
Private Networks 24.Hybrid technologies including hydrogen, heat
and gas 25.Smart Communities, Smart Cities and the Internet of
Things 14.Electricity storage: interfaces, home and community scale
15.Potential for hydrogen production and storage 16.Microgrids for
storms resilience with intentional islanding utilising DERs
17.Phasor Management Units (PMUs) and 18.Wide Area Monitoring,
Control and protection (WAMPACs) 19.Forecasting, modelling and
visualisation for planning /operational timescales 20.State
Estimation for network observability 21.Active Network Management
(ANM) 22.Home/Building Energy Management Systems, Smart Meters
& Displays 23.Custom Private Networks 24.Hybrid technologies
including hydrogen, heat and gas 25.Smart Communities, Smart Cities
and the Internet of Things
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14 However, there is another pressing agenda for the power
grid
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15 Adequacy of GB generation capacity? Closure of non- FGD coal
stations New nuclear build still not confirmed Renewables are
incentivised EMR not yet complete Barrage / Lagoon proposals
De-mothballing? New CCGT?? Shale gas??? National Grid contingency
actions (i.e. WITHOUT RENEWABLES)
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16 Renewable power sources? Renewables are growing in total
capacity Some 20GW peak In 2013 renewables delivered 14% of GB
energy use Today, dependent on the wind and sun Importance of
forecasting, interconnectors, geographic spread and, in the future,
demand flexibility and storage.
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17 Will Smart Grids and new flexibility really happen, do the
costs/benefits stack up?
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18 Developments in GB: The Smart Grid Forum Shaping a shared
Stakeholder View The DECC/Ofgem Smart Grid Forum was established in
April 2011 DECC the UK Department of Energy & Climate Change
Ofgem the GB electricity and gas regulator Identify future
challenges for electricity networks; Guide the actions of
Government/Regulator; Identify actions to facilitate the deployment
of smart grids; Facilitate the exchange of information and
knowledge; Help stakeholders better understand future developments;
Track smart grid initiatives in Europe and elsewhere.
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Smart Grid Forum Workstream 3: Evaluating Conventional and
Innovative solutions To develop and populate a model that
demonstrates the value of smart grid innovative solutions in
distribution networks to address a range of low carbon scenarios
The model is generic - it does not know network connectivity or
calculate load flows or voltages It does reflect the
characteristics of the DNOs networks across GB It does examine
alternative investment strategies Many modelling parameters are
user-definable The model is generic - it does not know network
connectivity or calculate load flows or voltages It does reflect
the characteristics of the DNOs networks across GB It does examine
alternative investment strategies Many modelling parameters are
user-definable
Slide 20
The Headline modelling results 20 Smarter strategies appear
most cost effective Summary of Present Value of gross totex of
distribution network investment (2012-2050)
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21 No Clustering could reduce costs by 60% 2 nd generation EVs
could increase costs by 50% A 5% change in the reinforcement
threshold could increase costs by 40% Some Sensitivity Cases
Slide 22
22 But.
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23 The IETs warning flag and its challenges to the power
sector
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24 The IET Position Statement The December 2013 Position
Statement summarises ground- breaking work A classic problem of an
invisible risk because it grows incrementally There is evidence
already of changing GB system behaviours - hence The IETs call for
action This is not a panic message, but solutions will require
sustained effort and fresh thinking Indeed, a shock to the system
after 80yrs of grid development The work here is at a scoping
level, not determining solutions. The Power Network Joint Vision
(PNJV) Position Statement and Report are available at
www.theiet.orgwww.theiet.org
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25 The GB view: Material Changes Ahead The graphic summarises
the rising complexity anticipated for our power networks The scale
of change is no longer incremental and will move the power network
significantly beyond the bounds of its original Systems Engineering
Best practice in other sectors ensures a Whole Systems approach
through the role of a System Architect But no party has this role
in todays industry
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26 What is Ofgem doing to incentivise network innovation?
Answer: more than any regulator world-wide!
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27 The Low Carbon Networks Fund A new regulatory incentive to
stimulate smart grid deployment Tier 1 funding of 16m per year is
allocated between all DNOs (according to customer numbers) on an
annual basis. This allocation will allow each DNO, with minimum
bureaucracy, to undertake several small scale projects. Customers
will fund a maximum of 90% of the cost of projects. 500m over 5
years (2010-2015) for bold network innovation projects Tier 2
funding a significant amount comprising 64m p.a. to encourage a
small number of flagship projects. Funds will be held centrally,
with DNOs competing for funding. After 2015, these incentives will
become the NIA Network Innovation Allowance, and NIC Network
Innovation Competition After 2015, these incentives will become the
NIA Network Innovation Allowance, and NIC Network Innovation
Competition
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28 European Comparators Smart Grid Projects 2012 Excellent
messages for GBs positioning in Europe A strong platform for
innovators, exports and growth?
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29 A Practical Example of smart grid innovation
Slide 30
An example: UKPN Flexible Plug & Play Ackgt: Sotiris
Georgiopoulos, UKPN (33kV network)
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An example: UKPN Flexible Plug & Play Ackgt: Sotiris
Georgiopoulos, UKPN An Active Network Management system (ANM)
Slide 32
Slide 33
33 Where might all this be leading? Is this in fact pointing to
bigger changes than smart and flexible electricity.
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34 The Direction of Travel? Smart Community Smart Grids Smart
Transport Smart Customers Smart Buildings E-Health Care Energy
Storage
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35 The Direction of Travel? Communications Everywhere
Intelligent Processing Big Data Analytics Peer to Peer The Internet
of Things Sensors Everywhere Communities & Collaboration
Digital Cities Intelligent Cities Smarter Planet (IBM) Digital
Urbanism (CISCO) Sustainable Cities (Siemens) Producer/Consumers
Prosumers Producer/Consumers Prosumers
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36 The Consequences? Connecting Everything with Everybody
Massive cost savings, new services and convenience Plus some new
risks and opportunities for misuse. The Internet of Things Nearly
Free Goods and Services: Close to Zero Marginal Costs Nearly Free
Goods and Services: Close to Zero Marginal Costs If so, our
traditional economic model (competition by price) can no longer be
dominant Nearly Free is already with us: Non-profits, publishing,
communications, information, 3D- printing, on-line higher education
(MOOCs), Apps for smart phones, car sharing, spare room
sharing..renewable energy A New Economy is ahead: A hybrid of
Collaborative Commons + Capitalism. What impact for Business? A New
Economy is ahead: A hybrid of Collaborative Commons + Capitalism.
What impact for Business? 1 2 Communications Everywhere Intelligent
Processing Big Data Analytics Peer to Peer Sensors Everywhere
Communities & Collaboration Producer/Consumers Prosumers
Producer/Consumers Prosumers
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37 The Characteristics The Internet of Things Communications
Everywhere Intelligent Processing Big Data Analytics Peer to Peer
Sensors Everywhere Communities & Collaboration
Producer/Consumers Prosumers Producer/Consumers Prosumers SHARING
ON A MASSIVE SCALE ENERGY LOGISTICS COMMUNICATIONS MORE ABOUT
ACCESS THAN OWNERSHIP BUILDING SOCIAL CAPITAL ENTREPRENEURIAL
OPPORTUNITIES SUSTAINABLE QUALITY OF LIFE OPEN & DISTRIBUTED
BUSINESS MORE QUALITY of LIFE, LESS ABOUT GDP NET NEUTRALITY OPEN,
DISTRIBUTED, COLLABORATIVE ACCESS FOR ANYONE, ANYWHERE,
ANYTIME
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38 A growing body of work Watch his lecture from the RSA in
London: http://www.thersa.org/events/audio-and-past-
events/2014/a-world-beyond-markets Delong & Summers, The New
Economy Univ of California, Berkeley, 2001
http://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedkpr/y2001p1 1-43.html
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39 These changes may take decades, but they are fundamental. Q
do the construction, engineering, and technology sectors have
insights to offer? If so, they must reserve their rights to play.
But, do they currently have sufficient influence?
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40 Some key messages to summarise
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41 In Summary The landscape for power grids is set to change:
Disruptive challenges are ahead: smart solutions will be needed 1
Whole-systems thinking is needed: a System Architect for the grid?
3 Consumer & business engagement will be key to the changes 2
We can expect Near-Zero Marginal Prices: changes ahead for our
economy 4 real impacts for business and wider society.
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42 Smart Grids: Increasing energy flexibility Thank you for
your attention Discussion John Scott, Director, Chiltern Power Ltd.
www.chilternpower.com +44 (0) 7771 975 623
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43 Spare Material
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44 Is todays framework creaking already? Fundamental design
changes require a whole-systems view: but no one has accountability
as the System Architect Rising inter-dependencies and complexity:
electricity, heat, gas, comms, big data, transport, and consumers
at scale The skills deficit: future support for customers, clients
and supply chains The consultation burden from DECC and Ofgem (now
1/week from DECC, 4/week from Ofgem) Short termism: electoral cycle
times & the Senior Civil Service rotational system Is there
sufficient strategic capability?
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45 Hannah Nixon (Joint Chair) Ofgem Sandy Sheard (Joint Chair)
DECC Mike Calviou National Grid Dave Openshaw UKPN (DNO) Steve
Johnson ENWL (DNO) Phil Jones CE Electric (DNO) Mark Mathieson SSE
(DNO & TO) Chris Harris RWE nPower Ashley Pocock EDF (Supplier)
Tim Rotheray CHP Association John Scott Chiltern Power Judith Ward
Sustainability First Jim SutherlandScottish Power (DNO) Robert
SymonsWPD (DNO) An open selection process for membership was run by
the Government/Regulator jointly Membership List (by invitation) at
April 2014 Yselkla Farmer BEAMA Chris Welby Good Energy John
Mulcahy British Gas Gavin Jones Electralink Duncan Botting PB Power
Steve Unger Ofcom Nick Jenkins Cardiff University Ben Davison OLEV
(EVs) Sarah Bell DSR Coalition