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Theater Security Cooperation (TSC) Planning
(TSCP)
(excerpt from PCAS presentation July 11, 2005)
Nazli Choucri1, Stuart E. Madnick2, Michael D. Siegel31 Political Science Department
2 Sloan School of Management & School of Engineering3 Sloan School of Management
{nchoucri, smadnick, msiegel} @ mit.edu
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What is TSC*?What is TSC*?
Those activities Combatant Commanders conduct with foreign allies and friends to:
– Build defense relationships that promote specific US strategic interests
– Develop allied and friendly capabilities for self-defense and coalition operations, including allied transformation
– Improve information exchange and intelligence sharing to help harmonize views on security challenges
– Provide US forces with peacetime and contingency access and en route infrastructure
* Theater Security Cooperation Source: OSD Security Cooperation Guidance Coordination Draft , July 26, 2004
UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED
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Possible uses of System Dynamics in TSC
• Dynamics of the TSC planning process
• Build defense relationships to improve interoperability to improve– Learning, building trust, working together
• Develop allied and friendly capabilities by improving their allocation of resources for– Training troops– Assignment of officers– Intelligence gathering
• Combine dynamics and political stability to assist planning (ISX-EL-Sentia-MIT TIE)
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TSCP Dynamics - Causal Diagram
Theater SecurityCooperation Program(TSCP) Participation
DefenseRelationships
+
Trust Building withForeign Allies
+
Effectiveness ofTSCP
+
+R
"Relationships thatBuild Trust"
Development of Alliedand FriendlyCapabilities
Ability forCoalition
Operations
+
+
Success ofTSCP
+
+
R
"Building TrackRecord"
Promoting USStrategic Interests+ +
InformationExchange
Harmonious Views onSecurity Challenges
Ability to do WiderRange of TSCP
Activities
+
++
+
+
R
"BuildingIntelligence
Cooperation"
4
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Dynamic & Interdependent Behavior of Planning Activities
Planning BPlanning X Planning A
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Value of Studying the Dynamics of the TSCP Planning Process - Examples
• “Software project dynamics: an integrated approach” – Tarek Abdel-Hamid & Stuart Madnick – Complexity and Tradeoffs in Planning Large-Scale Software
Projects, especially government systems
• “Strategic management of complex projects: a case study using system dynamics” - James M. Lyneis - Case study of the Peace Shield Air Defense System
• “Modeling intergovernmental cooperation: A system dynamics approach” - Laura Black - Model of collaboration, trust building, and knowledge sharing in a complex, intergovernmental information system project. 6
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Build defense relationships to improve interoperability
• Joint exercises are an important tool for- Building defense relations- Improving interoperability
PlannedExercises
InteroperabilitySkills
New ExercisesPlanned
DoingExercises Building Skills
Loss ofInteroperability
+
Time to LoseInteroperability
-
IndicatedImprovement Desired
Interoperability
+
-
+
B
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But much more is going on …
PlannedExercises
InteroperabilitySkills
ExperienceParticipating
in JointPlanning
New ExercisesPlanned
DoingExercises Building Skills
Loss ofInteroperability
Participation inJoint Exercise
Decay ofExperience
+
Time to LoseInteroperability
-
IndicatedExercise Rate
DesiredCompletion Time
+
ResourcesAvailable
NormalExercise Rate
SchedulePressure
+
Time Spent inJoint Planning
-
Time SpentConductingExercises
+
+
+
Effectiveness ofExercises in Skill
Building
+
+
Decay Time
-
IndicatedImprovement Desired
Interoperability
+
-
+
+
BR
B
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Develop Allied and Friendly Capabilities
• Better understanding of implications of allocation of resources for– Training activities– Military Leadership– Intelligence sharing
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Officer Allocation Policy• Allocation policy has resulted in unequal
distribution of officer talent between North and South.
• Officer talent in the South can affect the mix of anti-insurgency activities.
• Short-term solutions respond to violence and insurgency.
• Long-term solutions build trust with local communities (example: Marine Corps Combined Action Program).
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Officer Quality Policy
Building Trust Assignment ofTroops to Trust
Building
TroopsResponding to
Violence
Assignment of Troopsto Respond to
Violence
+
-
Frequency ofViolence
Indicated Troopsin Field
Gap
+
+
-
+
Trust
-
SendingCommanders to
South
+
Fraction of HighlyQualified Commanders
in South
Preference forShort-termSolutions
Effectiveness ofTrust Building
+
+ +
-
-
R
B
B
+
+
+
R
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Officer Allocation Policy
• Officer allocation can skew mix toward short-term solutions at the expense of a long-term optimal mix.
• Trust and relations suffer, so violence is more likely.
• Despite continued increases in troops, frequency of violence chronically increases.
• “Unintended consequences” of the allocation policy exacerbate the problem.
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Disaggregating TSCP Activities: Combine dynamics and political stability (ISX-EL-Sentia-MIT TIE)
MultilateralConferences
EffectIncreasing MultilateralConferences
Decreasing MultilateralConferences
HumanitarianAssistance EffectIncreasing Humanitarian
AssistanceDecreasing
Humanitarian Assistance
Effect of MultilateralConferences on End
State
Effect of HumanitarianAssistance on End
State
Duration of MultilateralConferences Effects
Duration ofHumanitarian Assistance
Effects
Adjustment toPolitical Stability
MultilateralConferences per Year
HumanitarianAssistances per
Year
Strength of MultilateralConferences Effects on
End State
Strength of HumanitarianAssistance Effects on
End State
MultilateralService
Exchange EffectIncreasing MultilateralService Exchange
Decreasing MultilateralService Exchange
Other HighLevel Visits
EffectHigh Level Visits Decreasing HighLevel Visits
Effect of Multilateral ServiceExchange on End State
Effect of High LevelVisits on End State
Duration of MultilateralService Exchange Effects
Duration of High LevelAssistance Effects
Multilateral ServiceExchange per Year
High Level Visitsper Year
Strength of MultilateralService Exchange Effects on
End State
Strength of High LevelVisits on End State
BilateralConferences
EffectIncreasing BilateralConferences
Decreasing BilateralConferences
SME ExchangeEffectIncreasing SME
ExchangeDecreasing SME
Exchange
Effect of BilateralConferences on End
State
Effect of SMEExchange on End State
Duration of BilateralConferences Effects
Duration of SMEExchange Effects
Bilateral Conferencesper Year
SME Exchangeper Year
Strength of BilateralConferences Effects on
End State
Strength of SME ExchangeEffects on End State
Staff AssistanceEffectIncreasing Staff
AssistanceDecreasing Staff
Assistance
PME Effect
Increasing PME Decreasing PME
Effect of Staff Assistanceon End State
Effect of PME onEnd State
Duration of StaffAssistance Effects
Duration of PMEEffects
Staff Assistanceper Year
PME per Year
Strength of Staff AssistanceEffects on End State
Strength of PME Effectson End State
SeniorGovernmentVisits EffectIncreasing Senior
Government VisitsDecreasing SeniorGovernment Visits
Effect of SeniorGovernment Visits on
End State
Duration of SeniorGovernmentVisitsEffects
Senior GovernmentVisits per Year
Strength of SeniorGovernment Visits Effects on
End State
Effect of MultilateralConferences on
objective
Effect of HumanitarianAssistance on
Objective
Strength of MultilateralConferences Effects on
Objective
Strength of HumanitarianAssistance Effects on
Objective
Effect of Multilateral ServiceExchange on Objective
Effect of High LevelVisits on Objective
Strength of Multilateral ServiceExchange Effects on Objective
Strength of High LevelVisits on Objective
Effect of BilateralConferences on
Objective
Effect of SME Exchangeon Objective
Strength of BilateralConferences Effects on
Objective
Strength of SME ExchangeEffects on Objective
Effect of Staff Assistanceon Objective
Effect of PME onObjective
Strength of Staff AssistanceEffects on Objective
Strength of PME Effectson Objective
Effect of SeniorGovernment Visits on
Objective
Strength of SeniorGovernment Visits Effects on
Objective
Adjustments toPolitical Capacity
SocialFractionalization Democracy
Effect of HumanitarianAssistance on Social
Fractionalization
Strength of Effects ofHumanitarian Assistance on
Social Fractionalization
Effect of BilateralConferenceson on Social
Fractionalization
Strength of BilateralConferences Effects on Social
Fractionalization
Effect of Senior GovernmentVisits on SocialFractionalization
Strength of Effects of SeniorGovernment Visits on Social
Fractionalization
Effect of Other High LevelVisitson SocialFractionalization
Strength of Effects of OtherHigh Level Visits on Social
Fractionalization
Effect of HumanitarianAssistance onDemocracy
Strength of Effects ofHumanitarian Assistance on
Democracy
Effect of BilateralConferenceson on
Democracy
Strength of BilateralConferences Effects on
Democracy
Effect of SeniorGovernment Visits on
Democracy
Strength of Effects of SeniorGovernment Visits on
Democracy
Effect of Other HighLevel Visits on
Democracy
Strength of Effects of OtherHigh Level Visits on
Democracy
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Disaggregating TSCP Activities- “Zoom in” example
Adjustment toPolitical Stability
BilateralConferences
EffectIncreasing
BilateralConferences
DecreasingBilateral
Conferences
Effect of BilateralConferences on End
State
Duration of BilateralConferences Effects
BilateralConferences per
Year
Strength of BilateralConferences Effects on
End State
Effect of BilateralConferences on
Objective
Strength of BilateralConferences Effects on
Objective
Adjustments toPolitical Capacity
SocialFractionalization
Democracy
Effect of BilateralConferenceson on
Social Fractionalization
Strength of BilateralConferences Effects onSocial Fractionalization
Effect of BilateralConferenceson on
Democracy
Strength of BilateralConferences Effects on
Democracy
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