Energy: scenario and challenges
Samuel Carrara, PhD
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
Cleanweb world tour – Roma Hackathon
November 30th – December 2nd, 2012
Università degli studi Roma Tre, Rome, Italy
Why is energy so important?
1 bn=
6 bn↑
1 / 8
Source: IAC (2007)
Global primary energy demand and supply
Source: WEO (2008)
2 / 8
81% (2011)
Growing energy demand (fossils)
The energy problem
• Energy security
• Sustainability & Climate Change
3 / 8
1653 Billion barrels
(+ 10% compared to 2001)
Proven oil reserves (2011)
Source: BP review (2012)
31 Billion barrels
(+ 12% compared to 2001)
4 / 8
Source: WEO (2012)
Fossil fuels availability
“The Stone Age didn’t end because of a shortage of stones: the oil
age won't end because of a shortage of oil.” (Sheik Yemani, Saudi OilMinister, 1973)
5 / 8
Fossil Fuel
Burning
30Billion tons
Go inbillion tons added
every year15 billion tons added
every year
CO2 Pre-industrial levels: 280 ppm
Current levels (2005): 380 ppm
Concentration increase 8,000 years before industrialization: 20 ppm
Concentration increase since 1750: 100 ppm
Sustainability & Climate Change
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≈8 ≈7 = 15
Ocean
+
800billion tons carbon
Go in every year
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= billion tons Go out
Land Biosphere (net)
+
3000 billion tons CO2
every year
Courtesy of Rob Socolow
Since 1750 anthropogenic CO2
emissions have come from:
2/3 fossil fuels
1/3 land use change
385 ppm 435 ppme
6 / 8
Emissions / temperature correlation
Source: Reale (2007)
“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since themid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase inanthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” (IPCC, 2007)
7 / 8
Temperature increase projections
Source: Connor (2009)8 / 8
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