Corn and Soybean Stocks, Acreage, and Price Outlook
Darrel Good and Scott Irwin Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois
1
Presentation Materials
Visit farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars
Videos & Downloads o PDF of slides available now o Video available tomorrow
Questions
Please submit questions during the presentation
2
4362
3533
4028 4261 4310
3670
3148
2766
3854
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-
mil.
bu.
Figure 1. June 1 Corn Stocks
Expected = 3722
3
1
67 103
76
-303
346
-33
-92
132
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-
mil.
bu.
Figure 2. USDA June 1 Corn Stocks Estimate Minus Average Trade Guess
4
1,293
1,127 1,069
947
1,273
715
859 920
878
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
mil.
bu.
Figure 3. Third Quarter Feed and Residual
Use of Corn
Expected = 1010
5
91641
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
95000
100000
thou
sand
s Figure 4. Planted and Harvested Acreage
of Corn
Planted
Harvested
Avg. guess = 91725
83839
6
02000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
mil.
ac.
Figure 5. Planted Minus Harvested
Acreage of Corn
7
991
1092
676
596 571 619
668
435 405
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-
mil.
bu.
Figure 6. June 1 Soybean Stocks
Expected = 378
8
-22
15
7
11
-21
22
27
-6
27
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-
mil.
bu.
Figure 7. USDA June 1 Soybean Stocks Estimate Minus Average Trade Guess
9
84839
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
thou
sand
s Figure 8. Planted and Harvested Acreage
of Soybeans
Planted
Harvested
Avg. guess = 82154
84058
10
02000
4000
6000
8000
10000
mil.
ac.
Figure 9. Planted Minus Harvested Acres of Soybeans
11
973
760
668 684
495 453
328 247
563
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
mil.
bu.
Figure 11. Fourth Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Corn
needed
12
Figure 12. Corn Balance 2012/13 2013/14 Supply: Planted Acreage (million acres) 97.2 95.4 Harvested Acreage (million acres) 87.4 87.7 Yield (Bushels / Acre) 123.4 158.8 Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 989 821 Total Production (million bushels) 10,780 13,925 Imports (million bushels) 162 35 Total Supply (million bushels) 11,932 14,781
Consumption: Feed and Residual (million bushels) 4,335 5,200
Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,044 6,460 Ethanol (million bushels) 4,648 5,075 Exports (million bushels) 731 1,875 Total Consumption (million bushels) 11,111 13,535
Ending Stocks (million bushels) 821 1,246 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 7.4% 9.2%
Average Price ($/bu.) $6.89 $4.55
13
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
mil.
ac
Figure 13. Actual Planted Acres of Corn Minus June Intentions
14
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
bu p
er a
c Figure 14. U.S. Average Corn Yield
15
Figure 15. Corn Balance 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Supply: Planted Acreage (million acres) 97.2 95.4 91.6 Harvested Acreage (million acres) 87.4 87.7 83.8 Yield (Bushels / Acre) 123.4 158.8 165.3 Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 989 821 1,246 Total Production (million bushels) 10,780 13,925 13,852 Imports (million bushels) 162 35 30 Total Supply (million bushels) 11,932 14,781 15,128
Consumption: Feed and Residual (million bushels) 4,335 5,200 5,250
Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,044 6,460 6,485 Ethanol (million bushels) 4,648 5,075 5,100 Exports (million bushels) 731 1,875 1,700 Total Consumption (million bushels) 11,111 13,535 13,435
Ending Stocks (million bushels) 821 1,246 1,693 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 7.4% 9.2% 12.6%
Average Price ($/bu.) $6.89 $4.55 $4.15
16
Figure 16. Soybean Balance 2012-13 2013-14 Supply:
Planted Acreage (mil.) 77.2 76.5 Harvested Acreage (mil.) 76.2 75.9 Yield (bu./ac.) 39.8 43.3
Production (mil. bu.) 3,034 3,289 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 169 141 Imports (mil. bu.) 36 90
Total Supply(mil. bu.) 3,239 3,519
Consumption:
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,689 1,700 Export (mil. bu.) 1,320 1,600 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 90 95
Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,099 3,395
Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 141 125
Stocks-to-use 4.5% 3.7%
Average farm price ($/bu.) $14.40 $13.10
17
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
mil.
ac
Figure 17. Actual Planted Acres of Soybeans Minus June Intentions
18
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
bu. p
er a
c.
Figure 18. US Average Soybean Yield 19
Figure 19. Soybean Balance 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Supply:
Planted Acreage (mil.) 77.2 76.5 84.8 Harvested Acreage (mil.) 76.2 75.9 84.1 Yield (bu./ac.) 39.8 43.3 45.0
Production (mil. bu.) Planted Acreage 3,034 3,289 3,785 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 169 141 125 Imports (mil. bu.) 36 90 10
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,239 3,519 3,920
Consumption:
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,689 1,700 1,730 Export (mil. bu.) 1,320 1,600 1,700 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 90 95 110
Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,099 3,395 3,540
Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 141 125 380
Stocks-to-use 4.5% 3.7% 10.7%
Average farm price ($/bu.) $14.40 $13.10 $10.25
20
Presentation Materials
Visit farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars
Questions?
Please continue to submit questions during this part of the webinar
21
Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21
Top Related