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Welcome to the Real World:Force Structure Trade-Offs
Robert David Steele
Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….
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Terms of Reference
I am constantly being asked for a bottom-line defense number. I don't know of any logical way to arrive at such a figure without analyzing the threat; without determining what changes in our strategy should be made in light of the changes in the threat; and then determining what force structure and weapons programs we need to carry out this revised strategy.
Senator Sam Nunn
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Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000HIC Levels Off
LIC Business is Good
Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof
High-Intensity Conflict Low-Intensity Conflict Internal War
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman
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Conflict Facts for 200026 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman
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Ethnic Fault Lines 200043 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
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Water & War
Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Hyper-Arid
Sub-Humid
Arid
Semi-Arid
Water Pollution
1
2
34
5
6
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Collateral Specifics for 2000
Complex Emergencies29 Countries
Refugees/Displaced67 Countries
Food Security27 Countries
Child Soldiers42 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Peacekeeping Forces18 UN, 20 Other
Landmines62 Countries
Torture Common94 Countries
Corruption Common78 Countries
Censorship Very High63 Countries
*State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map
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10%
50%
25%
15%
State vs State
State vs Nation
Inter-Ethnic Tribal
Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization
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1. Break-Out 2. Black Death 3. Barricade (Good or Bad)
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Four Threat TypesPHYSICAL
STEALTH,
PRECISION
TARGETING
NATURAL
STEALTH,
RANDOM
TARGETING
CYBER -
STEALTH,
DATABASE
TARGETING
IDEO -
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
GUERRILLAWAR
CULTURALWAR
HIGH TECH
BRUTES
(MIC / HIC)
LOW TECH
BRUTES
(LIC)
HIGH TECH
SEERS
(C3I WAR)
LOW TECH
SEERS
(JIHAD)
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
TERRORISMECONOMICWAR
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HIC/MRC STRATEGIC NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL
MILITARY WAR
SOLIC/LEA UNCONVENTIONAL
LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT AND GANG
WARFARE
IO/ECON INFORMATION WAR/ CRIME & ECONOMIC
ESPIONAGE
MINDWAR RELIGIOUS, POLITICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
REFUGEES
PROLIFERATION/JIHAD
MIGRATION/ GREENPEACE
TERRORISM/ GLOBAL CRIME
INFOWAR/ ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE
Challenges
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Redefining Global Security
Security Council Resolution 751 of 24 April 1992“magnitude of human suffering”
(Somalia)constitutes threat to peace and security
This is a significant move away from previous UN standard, generally involving a cross-border dispute
between 2 or more states.
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Strategy Fundamentals
• People matter more than technology.
• Security strategy is holistic--must manage diplomacy, economics, culture, psychology, information and military in harmony.
• “War proper” is not just military force.
• Power without purpose is waste.
• Time is priceless. Use it or lose it!
• Trinity is violence, chance, and rationality.
• Strategic culture matters.
• Asymmetric threats have co-equal standing with symmetric threats.
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New Strategic Focus1
3
2
Was #
Oops. We all forgot Homeland Defense
0
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PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers
ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation
MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas
ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire
DATACorruption
Public Health
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Individual as Threat
and Target
State as Threat
and Target
Defense Against Weapons Systems “Over There”
Defense of InfrastructureHere at Home
Offense Against Fixed Ground
Offense Against Distributed Groups
OLDNEW
PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR
STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR
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REDEFINING NATIONAL SECURITY
LONG TIMELONG TIME
SHORTSHORT TIME
WARWAR
PEACEPEACE
THERETHEREHEREHERE
INFORMATION INFORMATION WARFARE WARFARE
INFORMATION INFORMATION PEACEKEEPINGPEACEKEEPING
EDUCATIONEDUCATION INTELLIGENCEINTELLIGENCE
ELECTRONIC SECURITY ELECTRONIC SECURITY & & COUNTERINTELLIGENCECOUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Crime & Terrorism
Nation Building & Public
Diplomacy
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We Still Need Conventional Forces
We still need conventional forces and especially a 450-ship Navy:1) to provide sea-based fires, intelligence, logistics, and medical
2) to provide the amphibious flanking option3) to hold down a second front and protect sea lanes
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450-Ship NavyACTUAL ACTUAL PLANNED DESIRED
U.S. Navy Ship Type 1987 Navy 1998 Navy 2010 Navy 2010 Navy Notes
Ballistic Submarines 37 18 14 15Attack Submarines 102 65 50 50Troop/Attack Submarines 0 0 0 15 1Aircraft Carriers (Blue Water) 14 12 12 8Aircraft Carriers (Littoral Ops) 0 0 0 4 2Battleships 3 0 0 2Cruisers 36 29 27 36Destroyers 69 50 73 59 3Expediters (Modified DDs) 0 0 0 25 4Frigates 115 38 16 33Amphibious Warfare Ships 63 40 36 36 5Patrol Craft/Brown Water Ops 6 13 14 75 6Mine Warfare Ships 22 16 26 20 7Combat Logistics Ships 56 39 18 18Mobile Logistics Ships 19 19 9 9Fleet Support Ships 24 11 7 7Strategic Auxiliaries 6 1 7 5Other (AGF-LCC) 14 11 9 9Assistance Ships (Large) 0 0 0 8 8Assistance Ships (Small) 0 0 0 8 8Hospital Ships (Large) 2 2 2 3 9Hospital Ships (Small) 0 0 0 5 9
USMC Focus (%) 11% 11% 11% 14%Littoral Focus (%) 5% 9% 13% 31%TOTAL SHIPS 588 364 320 450 0
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HIC/MRC1/3 leap forward*
1/3 anti-old technologies1/3 focus on people
SOLIC/LEA1/3 sensing technology*
1/3 peace/civil technology1/3 focus on people
IO/ECON1/3 electronic security*1/3 counterintelligence
1/3 economic intelligence
MINDWAR1/3 historical thinking1/3 cultural thinking1/3 strategic thinking
RMA in Context Gets Failing Grade
*RMA today hits only 3 of 12 strategic investment needs.
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Net Assessment
• Nature of War is Fundamentally Changed
• RMA/Net Assessments Fall Woefully Short
• Corporations & NGOs are allies/belligerents
• Civil-Military-Reserve Triad Must Change
• Transformation through “Thinking People”
• Force Protection begins with Day-to-Day Common Cause--Peace Corps, USIA, State
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Means - Ends Disconnect
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USA Allies Russia China Rogues
MilitaryDiplomacyHome Front
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Presidential Trade-Offs$100 million will buy:
1 Big Platform (Air or Sea) or
1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or
10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or
1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water
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Minimalist Budget Fixes
Program 50 Modifications• Kill 2+/JV 2010 (-5.0)
• Kill Missile Defense (-3.0)
• Kill new attack sub (-2.0)
• Kill Fancy TacAir (-5.0)
• Kill CVN & DD 21 (-5.0)
• Build 450-ship Navy (+5)
• Build the iii in 1+iii (+5)
• TOTAL: -10B/Year Net
Program 150 Increases• Digital Marshall Plan (+2)
• DGNI & GKF (+2)
• State Operations (+1)
• AIDx2 Water Focus (+2)
• Peace Corps x5 (+1)
• USIA + Culture (+1)
• NGO Subsidies (+1)
• TOTAL: +10B/Year
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HIC/MRC60% of the DoD Budget
75% Active/25% Reserve75% USG/25% Private
SOLIC/LEA20% of the DoD Budget
50% Active 50% Reserve50% USG/50% Private
IO/ECON10% of the DoD Budget
50% Active/50% Reserve25% USG/75% Private
MINDWAR10% of the DoD Budget
25% Active/75% Reserve50% USG/50% Private
Transformative Spending
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CORE FORCE
StrategistsAdvise Policy
ConstabularyStabilize Failed States
Domestic ThreatsFires, Riots, Epidemics
Citizen EducationBond Nation through Service
Force on ForceDeliberate Violence
Electronic SecuritySet Standards, Stand Watch
Small WarsRandom Violence
Ground TruthObserve with Warrior’s Eyes
New Force Structure Model
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New Strategy: 1 + iii
CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME
Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Home Guard
Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol
Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security
1 ii i
Electronic
Reserve
Reserve Reserve
Minutemen
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Sub-Strategies in Support
• Global intelligence burden-sharing strategy
• Global interoperability strategy
• 1+iii force structure acquisition strategy
• Preventive diplomacy strategy, fully funded
• Home front strategy leveraging Guard
• Ad hoc coalition strategy with strong Reserve
• Corporations/NGOs as allies and belligerents
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Terrorism is now rampant across AmericaMillions of dispossessed across 67 countries
Plagues and epidemics in 59 countriesStarvation in 27 countries
Open season given to crime & narcotics
So, to summarize the situation….
What is the threat?
What is our strategy?
What structure is needed?
How do we fund it?
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Welcome to the Real World:Force Structure Trade-Offs
Robert David Steele
There is no right answer….But it helps to understand reality.
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